1. Houston Rockets
Victor Wembanyama | 7-4 center | 19 years old | Metropolitans 92
Wembanyama has a real case to be the best prospect since LeBron James given his size, shot-creation skill, tools on defense and production. The 7-foot-4 French center has averaged 21.9 points, 9.6 rebounds and 3.2 blocks per game, all of which currently lead the French League. He’s also shooting 47.1 percent from the field and about 81 percent from the foul line while getting up over five 3-point attempts per game — many of which are self-created opportunities off the bounce. I’ve dove deep on Wembanyama following his games against the G League Ignite earlier this season, so if you’re looking for a fuller picture, look there.
2. Detroit Pistons
Scoot Henderson | 6-2 lead guard | 19 years old | G League Ignite
Henderson is the no-doubter No. 2 prospect in this class, a player who pretty clearly would have gone first overall in both the 2022 and 2020 NBA drafts. He’s a wildly explosive athlete on the level of guys like Ja Morant and Derrick Rose at the lead guard position, while also possessing immense skill and feel for the game as a passer and playmaker. His competitiveness has drawn raves from NBA scouts, and he’s the exact kind of personality teams want running the show. I talked about him at length recently on a podcast, breaking down in detail why he’s arguably the best guard prospect I’ve evaluated in the near-decade I’ve been doing this.
3. San Antonio Spurs
Brandon Miller | 6-9 wing | 20 years old | Alabama
Miller is considered the safest guy in the rest of the class to be a really good player, largely because he’s been supremely productive and efficient for Alabama. The Crimson Tide are one of the best teams in college basketball, and it’s largely because of Miller. He’s on track to be a first-team All-American this season as a freshman, averaging 19 points, eight rebounds and two assists per game. His elite skill is shooting, and he has hit 42.7 percent from 3 this season on over seven attempts per game. But while some were worried about his ability to finish in the paint early in the season, his play recently has gone a long way toward quelling those concerns in front offices. In 12 games in SEC play, he’s shooting 63.6 percent from 2-point range as well, with many of those being self-created.
4. Charlotte Hornets
Amen Thompson | 6-7 lead guard | 20 years old | Overtime Elite
I’m still a believer that Thompson has more upside than anyone outside of Wembanyama and Henderson. He’s a twitchy athlete at the lead guard spot who is a walking paint touch, and he’ll enter the NBA not just as a high-level athlete, but as one of the five most explosive players in the league. He’s electric out in the open court in the way few prospects are. He’s also a superb passer and playmaker for his teammates and has high-level upside as a finisher. But scouts who have been down to OTE have come away with some concerns regarding Amen’s and his twin brother Ausar’s rate of improvement. The twins do have real flaws; neither has enough of an in-between scoring game, and neither can shoot from 3 consistently at this stage. Defensively, they’re elite playmakers but have had moments this year of coasting. Amen is shooting 25 percent from 3 this season and just 65 percent from the line. It feels like he has made markedly few midrange shots.
They’re by far the best players within the Overtime Elite program, and my bet is that when the playoffs come around, we start to see them lock in and dominate. But it hasn’t been as clean as scouts expected this season. When putting that in conjunction with front offices still figuring out the context of how to best evaluate the Overtime Elite program, the Thompsons have become a bit more polarizing in front offices than people would think based on their consensus rankings across the internet. Some people love them and love their upside. Others still see them as lottery picks but lower.
5. Orlando Magic
Jarace Walker | 6-8 forward | 19 years old | Houston
Walker has really emerged for scouts over the last month as a player who could challenge for top-five status. Having started the season as a terrific defender still trying to find his way within Houston’s veteran structure offensively, the 6-foot-8 forward with a 7-foot-2 wingspan has been superb over the last month. In his last nine games, he’s averaged 16 points, seven rebounds and 1.6 assists per game while shooting 53 percent from the field and 43.8 percent on nearly four 3s per game. Teams aren’t totally sold on the jump shot yet, and there are some mechanical fixes he’ll have to make. But teams are encouraged by his touch, and they’ve long loved his passing ability from the middle of the floor out of short rolls and mid-post chances. Where Walker stands out is on defense, where he’s switchable and extremely active. His motor runs hot, and he has great instincts flying around the court to try and make things happen in help situations.
6. Indiana Pacers
Cam Whitmore | 6-7 wing | 18 years old | Villanova
Teams have their questions about Whitmore, but his shot-creation ability has largely been there for a Villanova team that has mostly been a mess. After missing the first few games of the season with a thumb injury, Whitmore took a minute to get going but has been a strong scorer in Big East play. He’s averaging 13.6 points on 48.6 percent shooting from the field and 41.7 percent from 3 on five attempts per game. The way he uses his athleticism as a shot creator has been impressive, using his stride length and strength mixed with the ability to string together moves off the bounce. His side-step and stepback pull-up games are impressive for a teenager at 6-foot-7. The issue is he isn’t really looking for his teammates at all, and his 6.9 assist rate would be one of the worst marks for a wing lottery pick in a while. His defense has left a lot to be desired too. But his tools look like they’ll translate better to the NBA with greater driving lanes and more space.
7. Washington Wizards
Anthony Black | 6-7 guard | 19 years old | Arkansas
At the end of the day, I just buy Black being an impact player at the next level because of the way he impacts the game. He’s a monster defender both at the point of attack and as a switchable player up and down the lineup. Offensively, he puts pressure on the rim at a high level because of how quickly he can get downhill. But moreover, all of this is paired with terrific processing speed. He reads and reacts to what’s happening at a super high level. You see this most in his passing ability, when he hits the right guy almost every time while on the move. It’s not an accident that Arkansas is 15 points per 100 possessions better when Black is on the court versus when he’s off it per Pivot Analysis, and he’s the only player on Arkansas with whom the team is better both on offense and defense when he’s on the court. He makes his teammates better, and his presence helps his team. Teams are coming around on Black for these reasons, but he’ll need to prove that his shot isn’t entirely broken during the pre-draft process. The mechanics don’t look awesome, but he doesn’t seem to have bad touch. He’ll just need to show he can make improvement there, and he’ll go in the top 10.
8. New Orleans Pelicans (via LAL)
Ausar Thompson | 6-7 wing | 20 years old | Overtime Elite
Much of what I wrote about about Amen applies to Ausar, albeit in an different role. Ausar is a wing as opposed to Amen’s lead initiator role. His craft as a finisher at the rim is more advanced, and mechanically, the shot looks better. But Ausar is similarly shooting below 30 percent from 3 so far this season in Overtime Elite and will need to improve that over time because he’s not quite as lightning quick or explosive as Amen. He has had a few moments of defensive lapses, but he tends to be a bit more solid in team defense than Amen — as his potential as a weakside rim-protection threat at the three has become very interesting to NBA teams. One other thing worth noting: The brothers are highly competitive, and they’re known as very high-level workers and professionals. They’re the kinds of guys you want to buy into, even if the floor could turn out a bit lower. My bet is that Ausar ends up in the lottery still, much like his brother.
9. Toronto Raptors
Keyonte George | 6-4 guard | 19 years old | Baylor
George is polarizing for teams. Some love his aggressiveness and the bag of tricks he has to get open looks. He plays in-between pace and really keeps defenders off-balance. He’s very creative, and when he puts his mind toward passing, he displays good vision. His production, on some level, is undeniable as he’s averaging 17 points, four rebounds and three assists per game for Baylor. Others get frustrated, though, by the lack of efficiency. George has just a 52.7 true shooting percentage in Big 12 play, along with a negative assist-to-turnover ratio. Athletically, he’s not the most explosive player in the world. Still, Baylor has gotten better by centralizing him a bit more within the offense because he’s versatile enough to take on that role. Some see George as a lottery guy, whereas others see him as more of a late-teens guy. The guy whom scouts tend to bring up with George is Eric Gordon, and Gordon is someone who earned his lottery status. My bet is, by the end of the year, George is seen in that realm as well.
10. Oklahoma City Thunder
Gradey Dick | 6-8 wing | 19 years old | Kansas
Dick has been a lethal shooter at 6-foot-8 this season, a gunner with a high release point who shoots with terrific balance off movement. He’s made 42 percent of his six 3-point attempts per game, consistently cashing in and generating open looks from behind the arc with off-ball movement. Offensively, he just knows how to cut and how to move. He passes well out of his floor-spacer role. He rebounds reasonably well and also has really good reactivity and hands on defense that allow him to not be a liability at the college level. Having said that, teams have real worries about his on-ball defensive game at the next level. It’s easier to hide bigger players who are smart, and Dick is pretty good in team concepts. But he might get hunted. Still, most teams see a top-15 grade on him right now.
11. Orlando Magic (via CHI)
Cason Wallace | 6-4 guard | 19 years old | Kentucky
Cason Wallace has dealt with back spasms over the last month, but when he’s been on the court, he’s been his typical self. He’s an elite defensive guard who is strong and physical enough to switch up the lineup and is enormously pesky on the ball against quick guards. On top of it, he’s preternaturally gifted as a team defender. NBA coaches will love him from Day 1 because of his reactivity and motor. Offensively, he’s a terrific shooter off the catch from 3 and does a good job of making the right read to either go out and get his own bucket or make a play for his teammate. Wallace is one of my favorite prospects in this class, but scouts are a bit more mixed on him. There are some concerns about drafting a 6-foot-4 defense-first guard in the lottery, especially given that he’s still working through some kinks with his pull-up game.
12. Portland Trail Blazers
Nick Smith Jr. | 6-4 combo guard | 18 years old | Arkansas
Smith Jr. just hasn’t had his season go according to plan after knee issues forced him into a stop-start season. He missed Arkansas’ first few games, returned for five, then missed the next 13. He returned over the weekend against Mississippi State but struggled in 17 minutes. Smith is still a very talented shot creator and difficult shot maker, but he’s not a wild athlete and can definitely go through bouts of inefficiency. He ended up as the No. 1 recruit in the class of 2022, though, because of how creative he is with ball-in-hand. There is some thought that he’ll look better at the NBA level, with a Jamal Murray-style game that translates well toward playing with a big initiator who allows him to focus more on scoring. Scouts desperately want to see more tape on Smith throughout the year, though, and hope he can rise to the levels he showed in high school. His range is pretty wide. He could end up in the top five or at the bottom of the lottery.
Nick Smith Jr. (Nelson Chenault / USA Today)
13. Utah Jazz
Rayan Rupert | 6-7 wing | 18 years old | New Zealand Breakers
Rupert is one of the most interesting international projects in this class. At 6-foot-7 with a 7-foot-3 wingspan, Rupert has the kind of tools every scout wants. He’s a good athlete, and he has strong feel for the game. Having grown up as a point guard, Rupert has strong instincts as a passer and consistently makes the right play for his teammates. But he’s nowhere near a finished product on offense. He’s not all that strong on the ball yet. He’s not quite a consistent shooter, but there is nothing all that wrong with his mechanics that make you say there will be issues long term. Where he truly shines is on defense. Rupert is aggressive and uses his lateral quickness and length to the utmost degree, making life miserable for opponents.
14. Los Angeles Lakers (via NOP)
Jalen Hood-Schifino | 6-6 wing | 19 years old | Indiana
Hood-Schifino is a big-time riser for scouts over the last month largely due to his well-rounded game. He defends well across the backcourt and is largely responsible for initiating the offense for Indiana. He dishes out 4.3 assists per game and plays like a veteran despite his age. The raw numbers mute his scoring impact. Over the last 14 games, Hood-Schifino has averaged nearly 15 points, three rebounds and four assists on strong efficiency numbers. It’s a bit of a roller coaster in terms of production game by game, but he brings it on defense and plays a strong, team-oriented game every night. I’m a buyer on him. His versatility of skill set should allow him to work his way into being a super high-level rotation player who helps teams win for as long as the shot holds up. He’s already playing that role at Indiana next to Trayce Jackson-Davis.
15. Atlanta Hawks
Jett Howard | 6-8 wing | 19 years old | Michigan
Howard has been a fascinating prospect to track this season. From a scoring perspective, he has had some of the best scoring games of any prospect. His 34-point outburst against Iowa was a ridiculous display of shot making, and in general, Howard’s shooting has been his elite skill this year. He’s a knockdown movement shooter who gets open looks out of a variety of different actions because of how quickly he can set his feet and fire. He’s hit 38 percent of his six 3-point attempts per game this season. But he’s not really bringing anything else to the table. He can be a secondary ballhandler but only out of certain actions because he’s not all that athletic (the Zoom actions Michigan runs really help get him the ball with his momentum downhill). Moreover, Howard doesn’t rebound and is a very poor defender. Being 6-foot-8 and able to shoot out of varied actions is a big deal. But Howard still has a ways to go to solidify this slot.
Doubt that's true. That's Kawhi dimensions. Really rare for a guard to have a wingspan that big. This kid will be in the lottery.
