OT: Leafs/NHL Thread

[MiamiSPX]

I still think the NHL playoffs is just such a luck fest and game of bounces especially with hot goalies and overtime games.

We've seen the Leafs go to game 7 against teams like the Bruins, Lightning and Panthers who went on to the finals or won the cup.

I think you need to put yourself in a position to be there every year and hope for the best.

Look at the Capitols with Ovechkin - literally disappointments year after year and they finally won in 2018...Ovi's 14th year in the league. Look at how many round 1 losses they had...they didn't even make a conference finals.

Red Wings despite making the finals in 2009 and then despite having prime Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Lindstrom etc. had playoff disappointments for the next decade.

It's not luck. Excluding covid format year, Dallas Stars have made conference finals 4 out of 5 seasons. With 32 teams now, that's not luck.

Same with Tampa making the finals three years in a row (and winning it twice).

Panthers are also among the last 4 teams for the 3rd straight year.

You can make your own luck, by building a better team. They keep trying to add toughness and "sandpaper" to the bottom 6 forwards because everyone is scared to say the obvious part out loud...your top 4 forwards are soft AF. If I didn't know better, you would think after watching that series that Verhaeghe is a way bigger dude than Matthews, which couldn't be farther from the truth. Matthews is taller and has 30lbs on him.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Mason Marchment for Denis Malgin. Kadri for Barrie and Kerfoot. Connor Brown for Codi Ceci.

Dubas overpaid his big guns and then consistently undermined them by trading toughness for either skill or experience.

[MoneyBall]

At this point, it just seems like this particular team has the yips, and they aren't going to ever get over the hump.

What's wild to me is, a team like the Golden Knights was able to go to the Stanley Cup finals in its inaugural season (as well as a second time where they won), while the Leafs continue to struggle year in and year out.

The Golden Knights had zero pressure on them. The Leafs have just about the most pressure in the league (maybe only Montreal has more). Some guys handle pressure well, others not as much. It wouldn't surprise me if Marner flourishes in a small market.

This makes me wonder (as I'm not really a hockey fan), if character is more important than skill? Obviously you need to have players who have talent, but there seems to be something intangible that the best teams have.

This is an unpopular opinion, but I don't believe lack of heart or effort is the problem. I have zero doubts that the top 4 guys desperately wanted to have strong games and a deep playoff run.

I happen to think pressure and nerves did play a factor for some of these guys in this market. The way they froze, like a deer in the headlights, at home in front of their fans tells me there's some sort of psychological barrier.

[ATLTimekeeper]

It's not luck. Excluding covid format year, Dallas Stars have made conference finals 4 out of 5 seasons. With 32 teams now, that's not luck.

Same with Tampa making the finals three years in a row (and winning it twice).

Panthers are also among the last 4 teams for the 3rd straight year.

You can make your own luck, by building a better team. They keep trying to add toughness and "sandpaper" to the bottom 6 forwards because everyone is scared to say the obvious part out loud...your top 4 forwards are soft AF. If I didn't know better, you would think after watching that series that Verhaeghe is a way bigger dude than Matthews, which couldn't be farther from the truth. Matthews is taller and has 30lbs on him.

Matthews leads the playoffs in SOG, shots at the goal, 2nd in takeaways, 3rd highest forward in blocked shots, a decent number of hits.

I think he was snakebitten but actually pretty dominant. Verhaeghe is really one way player. I wouldn't compare them. People that are overtly critical of Matthews shouldn't knock his effort. His execution is definitely worth going after.

[YogurtProducer]

I still think the NHL playoffs is just such a luck fest and game of bounces especially with hot goalies and overtime games.

We've seen the Leafs go to game 7 against teams like the Bruins, Lightning and Panthers who went on to the finals or won the cup.

I think you need to put yourself in a position to be there every year and hope for the best.

Look at the Capitols with Ovechkin - literally disappointments year after year and they finally won in 2018...Ovi's 14th year in the league. Look at how many round 1 losses they had...they didn't even make a conference finals.

Red Wings despite making the finals in 2009 and then despite having prime Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Lindstrom etc. had playoff disappointments for the next decade.

Its a lot more luck than fans will want to admit. Sure you can "create luck" but in a game like hockey the better team doesn't win at the same rate as basketball or even football.

Your second sentence there is a great point. We were literally in game 7 against 3 different teams who ended up winning the cup or were obvious contenders. This is not like the Demar/Lowry Raptors who absolutely folded every time they played a good team. Leafs have lost to Bruins/Canadiens/Tampa all in 7 who all made the finals. It wasn't like we got swept by these teams and had no business even being there.

I do think we need to build a team a little more built for the BS of the playoff reffing which encourages essentially committing penalties that go uncalled all of a sudden however. Marner is a prime candidate to just let go.

[MiamiSPX]

Same with Tampa making the finals three years in a row (and winning it twice).

Panthers are also among the last 4 teams for the 3rd straight year.

You can make your own luck, by building a better team. They keep trying to add toughness and "sandpaper" to the bottom 6 forwards because everyone is scared to say the obvious part out loud...your top 4 forwards are soft AF. If I didn't know better, you would think after watching that series that Verhaeghe is a way bigger dude than Matthews, which couldn't be farther from the truth. Matthews is taller and has 30lbs on him.

Matthews leads the playoffs in SOG, shots at the goal, 2nd in takeaways, 3rd highest forward in blocked shots, a decent number of hits.

I think he was snakebitten but actually pretty dominant. Verhaeghe is really one way player. I wouldn't compare them. People that are overtly critical of Matthews shouldn't knock his effort. His execution is definitely worth going after.

Meh, the results are what matter and there is just no glossing over his numbers in closeout games, particularly Game 7s. We have enough of a sample size that he has to own that. Let's see what next season brings without his best friend there.

Marner is 100% gone IMO. He wouldn't say he wants to be back and has been talking in past tense for 3 days now. I know this could be a negotiating ploy so that he and his father can suck every last cent from MLSE, but I don't know, I think it really is over this time. I think he is the one who is done with the Leafs after that trade attempt.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Panthers are also among the last 4 teams for the 3rd straight year.

You can make your own luck, by building a better team. They keep trying to add toughness and "sandpaper" to the bottom 6 forwards because everyone is scared to say the obvious part out loud...your top 4 forwards are soft AF. If I didn't know better, you would think after watching that series that Verhaeghe is a way bigger dude than Matthews, which couldn't be farther from the truth. Matthews is taller and has 30lbs on him.

Matthews leads the playoffs in SOG, shots at the goal, 2nd in takeaways, 3rd highest forward in blocked shots, a decent number of hits.

I think he was snakebitten but actually pretty dominant. Verhaeghe is really one way player. I wouldn't compare them. People that are overtly critical of Matthews shouldn't knock his effort. His execution is definitely worth going after.

Meh, the results are what matter and there is just no glossing over his numbers in closeout games, particularly Game 7s. We have enough of a sample size that he has to own that. Let's see what next season brings without his best friend there.

Marner is 100% gone IMO. He wouldn't say he wants to be back and has been talking in past tense for 3 days now. I know this could be a negotiating ploy so that he and his father can suck every last cent from MLSE, but I don't know, I think it really is over this time. I think he is the one who is done with the Leafs after that trade attempt.

I was just pointing out this particular playoff run. He wasn't soft.

[binjumper]

I'm glad I chose to be a die hard Raptors fan and a casual Leafs bandwagoner. They gotta be the worst franchise in the history of sports. They've never been to The Finals in a league with more than 6 teams. Imagine time traveling back to 1967 and telling the players in the locker room that we're 60 years into the future and the Leafs still haven't made it back to The Finals.

*12 teams

The Red Sox went 86 years without a title, and the Cubs went 108 years (MLB had 16 teams back then). The Leafs are one of the most embarassing franchises in the history of sport, but they aren't alone.

Also, being a Raptors fan hasn't been much better. We've been failures for 29 years of our 30 year existence. Granted, we aren't the league's most popular team (like the Leafs are), so expectations are lower, but it's still been a miserable ride for the most part.

You can't compare the raptors being the only Canadian team with the deck stacked against them. The 2019 chip was probably the most improbable thing to happen, but it did. The leafs have superstars that don't show up. It not the same.

[Dr Positivity]

I still think the NHL playoffs is just such a luck fest and game of bounces especially with hot goalies and overtime games.

We've seen the Leafs go to game 7 against teams like the Bruins, Lightning and Panthers who went on to the finals or won the cup.

I'd call it at least a bit more lucky, but there is some in the NBA as well especially in 3pt variance era, like the Heat beating the Celtics and Bucks in 23, was that because they're better or the shots went their way a bit. Or when the Grizzlies beat the Warriors by like 50 in 2022 without Morant, variance wise it's kind of like a hockey game where you get a bunch of unlucky bounces. If Florida makes the finals them and Tampa will have been more successful than any NBA franchise in their sport this decade.

[ratul]

Matthew’s hasn’t been him for a while

[Brinbe]

Matthew’s hasn’t been him for a while

clearly affected by whatever injury is bothering him, whether it's back/wrist or whatever. but 'hockey culture' demands he tough it out no matter what because that's just how it is.

he said it's something he can rehab in the offseason without surgery but hasn't disclosed what exactly is wrong.

based on the exit interviews. think JT is back and Marner is likely gone.

[Coco Costanza]

The Golden Knights had zero pressure on them. The Leafs have just about the most pressure in the league (maybe only Montreal has more). Some guys handle pressure well, others not as much. It wouldn't surprise me if Marner flourishes in a small market.

This makes me wonder (as I'm not really a hockey fan), if character is more important than skill? Obviously you need to have players who have talent, but there seems to be something intangible that the best teams have.

I happen to think pressure and nerves did play a factor for some of these guys in this market. The way they froze, like a deer in the headlights, at home in front of their fans tells me there's some sort of psychological barrier.

But doesn't that speak to their character? I guess I just mean, some guys have that killer instinct, and some guys don't.

[MoneyBall]

This makes me wonder (as I'm not really a hockey fan), if character is more important than skill? Obviously you need to have players who have talent, but there seems to be something intangible that the best teams have.

I happen to think pressure and nerves did play a factor for some of these guys in this market. The way they froze, like a deer in the headlights, at home in front of their fans tells me there's some sort of psychological barrier.

But doesn't that speak to their character? I guess I just mean, some guys have that killer instinct, and some guys don't.

I think we're saying the same thing but with different words. I don't want to say it's a character flaw because it sounds like it's something they chose to be. In any case, we agree there definitely seems to be a psychological barrier there on some level.

This is a lame comparison, but at my kid's school there was a singing competition where the bad singer did better than the good signer because of "stage presence". The good singer got stage fright; trembling voice, low volume, heavy and fast breathing etc. That kid was objectively a better singer, but the pressure of the performance got to him.

That said, I can also understand those who think there's too much of the team's salary dedicated to finesse. Playoff hockey is rather messy and dirty.

[MoneyBall]

The Panthers pummeled the Hurricanes on the road 5-2.

Here's a question: what if the Panthers go on to crush the rest of the competition and win back to back cups? Doesn't that change the perception of this Leafs team a *little* bit?

[Brinbe]

The Panthers pummeled the Hurricanes on the road 5-2.

Here's a question: what if the Panthers go on to crush the rest of the competition and win back to back cups? Doesn't that change the perception of this Leafs team a *little* bit?

it's not as if they're a bad team, just not ever the best team and they've proven that over the course of a near decade now. also it's just that they've lost, it's that they've gone out horribly. but that's also the pressure and expectation that comes when you spend high draft picks on stars and pay them top-level money.

there's a lot of context and history with this core and leaf fans have been crazy patient all things considered. Steve Thomas, Gary Roberts and Darcy Tucker never won anything here either but Leafs will love them for life because they gave it everything. Same with Max Domi and his papa.

[ratul]

Losing marner will be the biggest self own in some time

[Ado05]

No it won’t lol. I am very confident in saying Marner will never be the impact player he is in the regular season in the playoffs.

Paying him would effectively close the Maple Leafs window, if you still believe they have one at this point.

[MiamiSPX]

The Panthers pummeled the Hurricanes on the road 5-2.

Here's a question: what if the Panthers go on to crush the rest of the competition and win back to back cups? Doesn't that change the perception of this Leafs team a *little* bit?

Not really. Shades of DeRozan alluding to LeBron being in the way.

Like Brinbe already said, it's the way they laid down. Sportsnet Stats reported that through the first 2 periods, the Panthers had the most shot attempts of any team this season (regular season and playoffs). I live here and the local sports shows/news/radio (Panthers do get a lot of coverage now) all knew the gameplan was to score first because of what it was expected the Leafs would do. And everyone and their mother was right. They are who we thought they were.

Furthermore, the Panthers aren't going anywhere. The Cup team let Tarasenko, Montour and OEL go and didn't miss a beat. Ekblad and Bennett are FAs but chances are very strong that Ekblad stays, and most think Bennett will chase the money. Tkachuk has mentioned many times that he wanted a trade to Florida because of the core's ages and contract statuses. This team will be right here again the next few seasons.

[Lord_Zedd]

Leaf fans said the same thing when they lost to Boston/Montreal/Tampa/Florida , proceeding to the finals over the years, and still not much has changed.

"Maybe" a different story if they were competitive in game 5 and 7. They had a 2-0 series lead, and 3-1 in game 3 only to have Florida win the next 4 of 5 games.

I'm full convinced that if the Leafs lost in game 3 vs Sens, they would had lost that series. Ottawa at times looked like the better team, and showed way more fight than the Leafs, even down 3-0

[Fairview4Life]

The gameplan was to score first

I am pretty sure every team's gameplan is to score first.