Draft Thread Part 2

[DG88]

Decided to look more into Moses Moody and I came away impressed.

[OakleyDokely]

Moody is very interesting to me.

6'6 with a 7ft wingspan.

Doesn't turn 19 until later in the month which makes him one of the youngest players in the draft.

Shot 36% from 3 on decent volume.

Shot 81% from the FT line

Got to the line almost 6 times per game, which is a pretty high rate.

Lots on encouraging signs. I think at worst you're getting a 3+D versatile wing. And he has the potential for more.

[WuTang_CMB]

Even that draft doesn’t have a player as good as towns.

Family guy really found something with that mystery box skit.

The top of the 2016 looks a little overrrated now though no?

Who in that draft ended up better than Towns?

Jamal Murray is better than KAT not much elaboration needed there, him and Jokic have turned the Nuggets into a serious contender.

Simmons is a 3x all star and made an all nba team, KAT has made one less all star game and has had less team success.

Ingram is exactly the type of star wing built for the modern NBA, ZIon and Ingram will continue to grow together and turn around the Pelicans. KAT has more all star/all nba appearances for now but Ingram was a bit of a late bloomer.

Brown similarly to Ingram, him and Tatum have led the Celtics to more team success because they are the types of star wings that win in the modern NBA.

It's not all about individual accolades, especially because the Raps want to seriously contend again.

Ya, I disagree

Brown, Simmons, Ingram, Murray are borderline allstar types and aren't #1 guys on title contenders. They're #2/#3 guys.

You might take one or two of them over Towns depending on your team construction, but none of them are clearly better than Towns.

Towns is unmotivated. Im taking Brown and Murray over him all day every day.

[Jerry Lucas]

Towns may never be a #1 guy, but he could still end up being a better player than everyone in this draft.

I'm not even saying that I'd for sure trade a top pick for him, it really depends on the other parts of the deal and what the rest of the roster looks like, but you'd have to seriously consider it.

The key word is "could"

Based on what I believe Cade (Ben Simmons who can actually shoot) and Green (Luka-lite) specifically will turn out to be (#1 guys that can win), I would never trade them for KAT.

Towns has played in the NBA. He's played in allstar games. We already know he's one of the top Cs in the league.

The other guys are mystery boxes.

I don't believe Cade and Green are mystery boxes. They are special talents IMO and more sure things than top draft prospects have generally been in weaker classes. They are as much mystery boxes to me as guys like LaMelo and Luka, when people ignored the obvious signs that they would be sure fire stars.

[RapsFanInOhio]

Moody is very interesting to me.

6'6 with a 7ft wingspan.

Doesn't turn 19 until later in the month which makes him one of the youngest players in the draft.

Shot 36% from 3 on decent volume.

Shot 81% from the FT line

Got to the line almost 6 times per game, which is a pretty high rate.

Lots on encouraging signs. I think at worst you're getting a 3+D versatile wing. And he has the potential for more.

I have some concerns about his footspeed, but agreed on all of this.

[RapsFanInOhio]

If we pick top 4, I will feel much better about this draft because it makes the decision that much easier. Those four are pretty clear cut above the rest and I think all 4 have pretty limited bust potential.

7 or 8 still is a good range to be in - I feel like this is going to be a solid draft overall and that maybe 3-4 guys outside of the top 4 will be very high level NBA players. The problem in that range is you’re basically guessing. Barnes, Keon, Jalen, Mann, Bouknight, Kispert, Moody are all solid prospects but all have flaws that make their bust potential much higher than the top 4.

When’s the lottery?

[niQ]

If we pick top 4, I will feel much better about this draft because it makes the decision that much easier. Those four are pretty clear cut above the rest and I think all 4 have pretty limited bust potential.

7 or 8 still is a good range to be in - I feel like this is going to be a solid draft overall and that maybe 3-4 guys outside of the top 4 will be very high level NBA players. The problem in that range is you’re basically guessing. Barnes, Keon, Jalen, Mann, Bouknight, Kispert, Moody are all solid prospects but all have flaws that make their bust potential much higher than the top 4.

When’s the lottery?

June 22 at 8:30 p.m. ET.

[Childs]

If we pick top 4, I will feel much better about this draft because it makes the decision that much easier. Those four are pretty clear cut above the rest and I think all 4 have pretty limited bust potential.

7 or 8 still is a good range to be in - I feel like this is going to be a solid draft overall and that maybe 3-4 guys outside of the top 4 will be very high level NBA players. The problem in that range is you’re basically guessing. Barnes, Keon, Jalen, Mann, Bouknight, Kispert, Moody are all solid prospects but all have flaws that make their bust potential much higher than the top 4.

When’s the lottery?

June 22 at 8:30 p.m. ET.

Watch on YouTube

[WuTang_CMB]

Cade would be the golden ticket for this team.

Perfect fit. An all around guy that we desperately need.

[Mark_83]

I don't think the front office will take Moody or Keon. They don't really have the impact Masai has historically gone for. In fact, I think Keon might slide into the late lottery unless a team wants to gamble on his athleticism. Wagner is intriguing at 7 I think if he's still there.

Any examples? I'm not sure what you mean by impact other than upside.

Who of Jakob, Pascal, Delon, OG, Malachi, Norm fit that criteria?

All of those guys projected to be solid players, not superstars.

Masai's type in his time with the Raptors has been high IQ, high character players, who are excellent defensive players. The guys I listed all meet that criteria.

What are you seeing that suggests Keon Johnson or Moses Moody can be NBA superstars?

Nothing. But no one Masai has drafted with Toronto looked like they were going to be "superstars" when they were picked. Johnson and Moody aren't even the players I want, as I said. They're just the players who I see as fitting Masai's type of players.

Other than the 2014 draft, these are the advanced stats for Masai's first round picks.

Malachi
PER - 27.7
WS/40 - .277
ORTG - 124.5
DRTG - 90.3
BPM - 11.7

OG
PER - 23.8
WS/40 - .169
ORTG - 118.5
DRTG - 99.4
BPM - 10.1

Jakob
PER - 31.1
WS/40 - .249
ORTG - 128.8
DRTG - 98.5
BPM - 11.2

Pascal
PER - 31.5
WS/40 - .265
ORTG - 119.6
DRTG - 86.7
BPM - 8.0

Delon
PER - 29.2
WS/40 - .288
ORTG - 129.8
DRTG - 87.7
BPM - 16.2


For comparison:

Keon Johnson
PER - 16.3
WS/40 - .122
ORTG - 97.7
DRTG - 94.5
BPM - 4.1

Moses Moody
PER - 20.4
WS/40 - .192
ORTG - 119.5
DRTG - 98.1
BPM - 7.4

It's true, Masai and his staff value players with strong analytics as well, which I forgot to include in my criteria. But that doesn't mean Masai picked these guys with the thought that they would be superstars. Poeltl was largely valued because analytics thought he was the safest bet to be an NBA player and not bust, not because he was expected to be a superstar. All those guys with high analytics (Delon, Pascal, Flynn) were projected to be role player types.

In fact, the player with the highest ceiling in that group was OG who had the worst analytics numbers of the five Raptors drafted. For a Freshman Moody's numbers are quite comparable to OG (who he has been compared to by some) when OG was already a Sophomore. Moody is a whole year younger and surpassed him in win shares and offensive rating, while coming within a few points of every other stat.

Regardless of how you perceive these stats in a vacuum, there isn't much argument against the value of our previous picks being extremely high.

It would be foolish to look at any stat in a vacuum. If you're simply going to pick the player with the best PER or OFR then Luke Garza would be the number 1 pick, followed by Mobley, then Drew Timme.

Here's the PER and WS of most of the other players in the lottery:

Cade
21.6
.166

Suggs
22.6
.210

Barnes
21.4
.164

Davion
21.8
.215

Moody
20.4
.193

Bouknight
23.2
.179

Wagner
22
.210

Only one of these players has a PER as high as OG did in his draft year so by your criteria they're all out. Again, OG was the Raptors draft pick with the lowest PER but the highest upside. Moreover, Moody's PER is not only comparable to Cade's, but he has a higher WS per 40, if that's the criteria to judge a prospect on.

Heck, the player I've been pumping the most for the Raptors in a trade down scenario has been Isaiah Jackson, whose PER of 25.3 blows all those higher ranked guys out of the water, and I still wouldn't take him over Cade or Suggs.

[UnbelievablyRAW]

Damn, now the more I see Zaire Williams the more I get intrigued. Dude is 6'8 with a 6'11 wingspan and can dribble and score at all 3 levels. Wouldn't be surprised if ends up being the guy outside the top 5 that should have been top 5

[Dalek]

Moody has everything you would want on paper for a wing other than the plus level finishing ability. He does draw freethrows at the college level but I have to say most people, including myself, find him a bit boring as a prospect. He isn't great at any one skill, but is functional across the board. I do like some of shot creation, but he is more of a guy that will get assisted makes at the next level.

I'd group him with Franz Wagner who while he isn't quite as good a shooter as Moody, he is probably a better defender and has a good sense of when to move the ball and initiate the offense. At 6'9" with 6'11" wingspan he sees a bit more of the game them Moody does and is a more willing playmaker.

Why I mentioned both in the same breath is that both kind of didn't shine in the NCAA Tournament when it mattered. Wagner did not show up in his last game at Michigan and the same could be said of Moody who didn't play as well when the competition got better.

Both to me are high floor prospects that will do well on playoff type teams. I side with Wagner because he has had a lot of European experience and been in many bigger pressure moments.

[Syd-TK3]

If we stay 7/8 and Moody is available I'll put good money on him being the guy picked

[Psubs]

Damn, now the more I see Zaire Williams the more I get intrigued. Dude is 6'8 with a 6'11 wingspan and can dribble and score at all 3 levels. Wouldn't be surprised if ends up being the guy outside the top 5 that should have been top 5

He was top 7 like BJ Boston but after actually playing in college have dropped. Zaire is now closer to Patrick McCaw as a propect than Shaun Livingston.

If either decide to stay in college, they may improve or may not and have to stay even longer. Though they could bounce back and be in the teens like Bouknight.

[Psubs]

Moody has everything you would want on paper for a wing other than the plus level finishing ability. He does draw freethrows at the college level but I have to say most people, including myself, find him a bit boring as a prospect. He isn't great at any one skill, but is functional across the board. I do like some of shot creation, but he is more of a guy that will get assisted makes at the next level.

I'd group him with Franz Wagner who while he isn't quite as good a shooter as Moody, he is probably a better defender and has a good sense of when to move the ball and initiate the offense. At 6'9" with 6'11" wingspan he sees a bit more of the game them Moody does and is a more willing playmaker.

Why I mentioned both in the same breath is that both kind of didn't shine in the NCAA Tournament when it mattered. Wagner did not show up in his last game at Michigan and the same could be said of Moody who didn't play as well when the competition got better.

Both to me are high floor prospects that will do well on playoff type teams. I side with Wagner because he has had a lot of European experience and been in many bigger pressure moments.

Look at his brother playing better in Orlando. Boston was dumb to trade for him and then dump him. I guess they can't afford to develop a player, but I'd rather think that Mo would be better than Tacko (Hasheem Thabeet 2.0).

Mo Wagner is allowed to shoot four 3's per game in Orlando and shooting 37%!!! With Mo Bamba, the Mo-Mo Combo in Orlando should be fun to watch!

At Michigan, they were loaded with player that could shoot the 3 at 40% so Franz was lower on the totem pole.

With that said, he's a great glue guy, but should be taken in the early teens.

[Psubs]

Watch on YouTube

I'm thinking DPOY potential like Dennis Rodman but more passing and a lot less rebounding.

[vulture]

Man it's going to be tough to wait a month and a half for the lottery.

[Dalek]

Moody has everything you would want on paper for a wing other than the plus level finishing ability. He does draw freethrows at the college level but I have to say most people, including myself, find him a bit boring as a prospect. He isn't great at any one skill, but is functional across the board. I do like some of shot creation, but he is more of a guy that will get assisted makes at the next level.

I'd group him with Franz Wagner who while he isn't quite as good a shooter as Moody, he is probably a better defender and has a good sense of when to move the ball and initiate the offense. At 6'9" with 6'11" wingspan he sees a bit more of the game them Moody does and is a more willing playmaker.

Why I mentioned both in the same breath is that both kind of didn't shine in the NCAA Tournament when it mattered. Wagner did not show up in his last game at Michigan and the same could be said of Moody who didn't play as well when the competition got better.

Both to me are high floor prospects that will do well on playoff type teams. I side with Wagner because he has had a lot of European experience and been in many bigger pressure moments.

Look at his brother playing better in Orlando. Boston was dumb to trade for him and then dump him. I guess they can't afford to develop a player, but I'd rather think that Mo would be better than Tacko (Hasheem Thabeet 2.0).

Mo Wagner is allowed to shoot four 3's per game in Orlando and shooting 37%!!! With Mo Bamba, the Mo-Mo Combo in Orlando should be fun to watch!

At Michigan, they were loaded with player that could shoot the 3 at 40% so Franz was lower on the totem pole.

With that said, he's a great glue guy, but should be taken in the early teens.

That second tier of picks is pretty flat. I think Orlando has two top ten picks and I highly doubt they wouldn't draft Wagner with one pick. It would be great to see him play with his brother. I totally agree with you that he is a glue wing. He just makes his team better and both sides but I don't think he is a guy who can take over games. I think Moody is kind of similar that way. Neither are homerun picks, but both are pretty safe picks and offer decent positional size.

[Indeed]

Other than the 2014 draft, these are the advanced stats for Masai's first round picks.

Malachi
PER - 27.7
WS/40 - .277
ORTG - 124.5
DRTG - 90.3
BPM - 11.7

OG
PER - 23.8
WS/40 - .169
ORTG - 118.5
DRTG - 99.4
BPM - 10.1

Jakob
PER - 31.1
WS/40 - .249
ORTG - 128.8
DRTG - 98.5
BPM - 11.2

Pascal
PER - 31.5
WS/40 - .265
ORTG - 119.6
DRTG - 86.7
BPM - 8.0

Delon
PER - 29.2
WS/40 - .288
ORTG - 129.8
DRTG - 87.7
BPM - 16.2


For comparison:

Keon Johnson
PER - 16.3
WS/40 - .122
ORTG - 97.7
DRTG - 94.5
BPM - 4.1

Moses Moody
PER - 20.4
WS/40 - .192
ORTG - 119.5
DRTG - 98.1
BPM - 7.4

It's true, Masai and his staff value players with strong analytics as well, which I forgot to include in my criteria. But that doesn't mean Masai picked these guys with the thought that they would be superstars. Poeltl was largely valued because analytics thought he was the safest bet to be an NBA player and not bust, not because he was expected to be a superstar. All those guys with high analytics (Delon, Pascal, Flynn) were projected to be role player types.

In fact, the player with the highest ceiling in that group was OG who had the worst analytics numbers of the five Raptors drafted. For a Freshman Moody's numbers are quite comparable to OG (who he has been compared to by some) when OG was already a Sophomore. Moody is a whole year younger and surpassed him in win shares and offensive rating, while coming within a few points of every other stat.

I don't think Ujiri and staffs are looking at the same stats that we are looking. They may look at the style (eg. C&S, PnR, etc.) and determine what can be transfer at a higher level to make a decision.

Some of these stats will not transfer, for example Moody has his scissor kicks for getting to the line, but that could be an offensive foul in NBA. Meaning his FTR may and PER may not be the same. Another example such as Davion who may be stronger than younger players, so his impact may not be as much (people already expect he can't guard SF in NBA).

[RapsFanInOhio]

Man it's going to be tough to wait a month and a half for the lottery.

Seriously.