Thank Nation! Pre-Lottery: Denver 9th, NY pick 7th (PART 4)

[Lukeem]

My gut right now

1- ingram
2 - Simmons
3 - bender (would need to heavily scrutinize in workouts, could easily move down and potentially up, only seen a couple games and only 1 this year)
4 - Murray
5- heild
6- dunn

I think those are the ones that Definietly won't drop to 8-10 or wherever we end up picking

Who are the ones that we need to be considering then

Pgs- Baldwin, Jackson
Sg/sf - brown, korkmaz luwawu, valentine
Pf/c - Davis, Chriss, maker, Ellenson, Skal, poeltl

I agree on your top 6, I don't see any of them really falling. But I don't think that Baldwin, Jackson, Valentine or Maker are worth a look in the top-10. Especially Maker. Dude screams bust, I would have to be convinced at taking him at our pick at 27.

That list of people to consider is obviously pretty big. Id be pretty confident with my tastes narrowing it down to brown, korkmaz then bigs is tough but Skal, Davis maker.

Out of all of those I'm leaning towards maker. people can dump on it all they want but with him getting so much hype early I think he's been over analyzed


Maker is one of the most athletic bigs ever looking at his athletic testing. Vertical, quickness and agility.

Has a 9'3 standing reach

Has shoulders to fill out perfectly.

Shows potential with an outside shot.

Advanced ball handling and passing for a 19 year old big, no where near the hype he was getting but still much better than most his size.


Putting the bigs head to head to head to head

In order id rank them

Size
Maker, Skal, Davis, Chriss

Shot
Skal, Chriss, maker, Davis

Athleticsm
Maker, Chriss, Skal, Davis

Interior D
Davis, maker, Chriss, Skal

Per D
Davis, maker, Chriss, Skal

Ball H/p
Maker, Chriss, Skal, Davis

Youth
Chriss, maker, Davis, Skal



Things that need to be evaluated that we really have no access to and that would make the biggest difference whether players bust or boom

Work ethic
Character (avoiding pitfalls of NBA life)
Adaptability
Unselfishness

With those four I do get a better vibe from Davis and maker but that vibe isn't worth anything

[Risk101]

Whats this crap about Deyonta being slow?? He has the agility to gaurd smaller players out on the 3 point line and stay in front of them. Watch how he gaurds Nigel Hayes. He shows enough speed on the defensive end to stay infront of most 4's.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5iTYqQWokY[/youtube]

Since I know this was in regards to my comment....I clearly said offensively, read it next time please because I clearly acknowledged his ability to move on the defensive end and they're not the same thing. Just as Bismack is quick enough to do likewise, he will look slow and clumsy on the offensive end as well.

I also know your response will be that he has more skills offensively and better touch than Bismack as well which I obviously acknowledge being that I'm the one bringing it up. But again, his style of play and speed offensively is going to be best suited as a small ball C as it is Bismack. BB is the better shot blocker and defender but Davis is has better offence. But being better than Bismack offensively means relatively nothing and Davis leaves A LOT to be desired on that end. The kid lacks advanced footwork and post moves. He's really quite basic and definitely not assertive offensively either, majority of his scoring comes putbacks or gift wrapped passes from his backcourt (especially Valentine). As I said before, I'm not claiming he's horrible or anything like that. I like him but I'm not taking him top 10.

For a franchise like us that's not likely to get a top 10 pick for the foreseeable future despite his promise as a high level role player like Bismack (again I noted the differences just stating the relative impact), I want to take a shot at finding an all star calibre player like a PG, Klay, Kawhi etc in our range. Guys like Biz, Tristan Thompson etc are all nice players to have but I'd be gunning for more for our franchise personally. I think Davis would be an incredible fit for a franchise that doesn't need him to do anything more than he already does...for example he'd be a perfect fit in GS where he can defend for them and get the ball dumped off or alleyooped and they can rely on him to hit free throws as a small ball C. He'll fit very nicely in any system that has a stretch 4 and a PG that can help facilitate his offence, then he'll really shine. Too bad Minny or NOH didn't have a second pick or he'd be an excellent fit there, PHX may be a great landing spot should they get Bender with their first.

It's a very weak draft and Davis has shown the potential to grow offensively. You can't teach defense but you can mold his offense. A year of the 905 did wonders for Delon and Norman. Why can't the same be applied to Davis? Plus hardly any bigs have "advanced footwork " or post moves. The game today is about camping out at the 3 point line and crashing the boards. Serge and Kevin Love are perfect examples of that heck even Myles Turner. If Deyonta can do that for this team then he's worth a top 10 pick.

[JN]

Current top 30 and ties using retrodiction system I built this year using a combination of stats and scouting reports. Players are ordered by estimated star probability:

Spoiler:

Ben Simmons - 87%
Kris Dunn - 33%
Brandon Ingram - 32%
Zhou Qi - 28%
Wade Baldwin - 24%
Ron Baker - 17%
Dedric Lawson - 17%
Chinanu Onuaku - 16%
Guerschon Yabusele - 16%
Brice Johnson - 15%
Patrick McCaw - 14%
Dragan Bender - 12%
Demetrius Jackson - 12%
James Blackmon - 12%
Taurean Prince - 12%
Petr Cornelie - 11%
Derrick Jones, Jr. - 11%
Diamond Stone - 11%
Jakob Poeltl - 11%
Ante Zizic - 11%
Jamal Murray - 10%
Nikola Ivanovic - 10%
Alex Caruso - 7%
Juan Hernangomez - 7%
Ivica Zubac - 7%
Deyonta Davis - 7%
Jaylen Brown - 7%
Dillon Brooks - 5%
Buddy Hield - 5%
Henry Ellenson - 5%
Denzel Valentine - 5%
Melo Trimble - 5%
Nigel Hayes - 5%
Daniel Ochefu - 5%
Moses Kingsley - 5%
Domantas Sabonis - 5%
Marquese Chriss - 5%
A.J. English - 5%

Facepalm

[TheGoodDoctor]

Whats this crap about Deyonta being slow?? He has the agility to gaurd smaller players out on the 3 point line and stay in front of them. Watch how he gaurds Nigel Hayes. He shows enough speed on the defensive end to stay infront of most 4's.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5iTYqQWokY[/youtube]

Since I know this was in regards to my comment....I clearly said offensively, read it next time please because I clearly acknowledged his ability to move on the defensive end and they're not the same thing. Just as Bismack is quick enough to do likewise, he will look slow and clumsy on the offensive end as well.

I also know your response will be that he has more skills offensively and better touch than Bismack as well which I obviously acknowledge being that I'm the one bringing it up. But again, his style of play and speed offensively is going to be best suited as a small ball C as it is Bismack. BB is the better shot blocker and defender but Davis is has better offence. But being better than Bismack offensively means relatively nothing and Davis leaves A LOT to be desired on that end. The kid lacks advanced footwork and post moves. He's really quite basic and definitely not assertive offensively either, majority of his scoring comes putbacks or gift wrapped passes from his backcourt (especially Valentine). As I said before, I'm not claiming he's horrible or anything like that. I like him but I'm not taking him top 10.

For a franchise like us that's not likely to get a top 10 pick for the foreseeable future despite his promise as a high level role player like Bismack (again I noted the differences just stating the relative impact), I want to take a shot at finding an all star calibre player like a PG, Klay, Kawhi etc in our range. Guys like Biz, Tristan Thompson etc are all nice players to have but I'd be gunning for more for our franchise personally. I think Davis would be an incredible fit for a franchise that doesn't need him to do anything more than he already does...for example he'd be a perfect fit in GS where he can defend for them and get the ball dumped off or alleyooped and they can rely on him to hit free throws as a small ball C. He'll fit very nicely in any system that has a stretch 4 and a PG that can help facilitate his offence, then he'll really shine. Too bad Minny or NOH didn't have a second pick or he'd be an excellent fit there, PHX may be a great landing spot should they get Bender with their first.

It's a very weak draft and Davis has shown the potential to grow offensively. You can't teach defense but you can mold his offense. A year of the 905 did wonders for Delon and Norman. Why can't the same be applied to Davis? Plus hardly any bigs have "advanced footwork " or post moves. The game today is about camping out at the 3 point line and crashing the boards. Serge and Kevin Love are perfect examples of that heck even Myles Turner. If Deyonta can do that for this team then he's worth a top 10 pick.

I have a few gripes with this post and you're totally entitled to your opinion but a few things...

1. I hate when people say it's a "weak draft" when the reality is we have no idea. Ironically we look at just the last 2 years, Wiggins/Parker draft was supposed to be a super draft and this past year people were claiming outside the top 4 that it was a weak one. If we don't have selective memory, people we're thinking KAT was another LMA, Okafor for was Al Jefferson, Mudiay was supposed to be good and no one knew if Russell was the real deal or another Evan Turner and if you recall Knicks fans booed Porz because no one knew if he was Bargnani 2.0 or Dirk, with the fear of the 1st option being more likely. No one was overly excited about these guys, figured they could be all-stars but no "superstars", meanwhile KAT looks generational. Turns out the supposed "weak draft" smoked the Wiggins/Parker one both in terms of more elite prospects and more depth. That top 10 is beastly. Also everyone thought the draft Kyrie came out of was a one trick pony and unlike this one everyone flat out said it was awful yet....Klay, Kawhi, JV, Tristan and Kemba were all a result of it so even the supposed "worst" of them will have some great players and this draft reminds me a ton of last year's one with maybe a slight edge to last year. But no one thought after the top 4-5 that there was anything special, they were dead wrong...and this draft has NUMEROUS players that you really can't tell...

I could very easily see any of Luwawu, Chriss, Skal, Brown becoming stars in the league. Heck if Davis really could develop his butt off he could even find his way in....I just think based on his assertiveness and lack of skill and refinement now that it's a lot less likely but that's just my opinion

2. Delon imo just looks like a solid player and he was drafted 20th, not 9th. Again my goal in the lotto is to try and find an all star talent not a high level role player. Norm just as his draft position shows is one of those complete fluke situations and it's still yet TBD if he is just a high level role player or can he really be an all-star. Also these guys have the benefit of being on the court with an all-star to off set the load. Norm & DW were also guys that showed they could score in college and as wings they had to create that offence. Again MUCH of what Deyonta scored was gift wrapped or putbacks.

3. Outside of Ibaka, it's terrible reasoning to think Deyonta can just do what Love and Turner do as both showed shooting touch and the ability to be stretch 4s before they hit the league and were far more fluid and skilled. Love shot 35% from 3 in college and Turner was somewhat disappointing as 3 pt shooter in college but he had few attempts in very limited playing time. He didn't come into college seen as that..it was very clear he had the potential and was highly touted coming out of HS...

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NoX6y2PJeq4[/youtube]
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RHUf-Gyvdbc[/youtube]

Deyonta didn't take a SINGLE three his entire college career, nor does he have similar shooting percentage from the FT line which is usually a good indication of shooting touch. Ibaka is the only one, I'll give you because maybe he could get to that level with a TON of work but even Serge himself is a high level role player and we certainly don't have 2 top 5 scorers MVP candidates on this roster. Again I have no problem with the kid, won't be angry if we choose him, he's is a great choice for team that needs a high level supporting player but with our one shot in the lotto...I'm trying to find the type of player he can support, not him.

[TheGoodDoctor]

Sorry to rant and I know I already touched on this in my last post but it really boggles my mind when I read people making the assertion that this is a weak draft...I really don't see how the heck this could on any level be perceived at such.

1. You have Simmons and Ingram at the top of the draft. Two guys who have chance to be legit SUPER stars (above all-stars) in the league and should at least be all-stars. That alone tops many drafts especially ones that have been actually regarded before and after to be weak. Most "weak" drafts completely lack superstar potential and certainly don't have 2 potential candidates.

2. The next tier has another 2-3 guys who could become multiple time all-stars. Sure as in ANY draft, there is a greater likelihood of not but few times do you see a draft with a couple of potential superstars then followed by a tier of potential multiple time all-stars. If any of Murray, Hield or Bender became that I wouldn't be shocked in the least bit and Murray imo could even surpass that depending on development but who knows. If I stopped here and all there was, was role players left it was a fairly decent draft but...

3. There are literally about ten names that there is no telling if they came become all-stars, high level role players or bust out. I mean look at it....

Skal
Luwawu
Brown
Chriss
Davis
Valentine
Jackson
Korkmaz
Maker
Ellenson

...if any one of those guys became an all-star in their careers I wouldn't be shocked and you know damn well there will be as there is every year a kid or two that stun everybody. Guys like Felder, Baldwin, Qi, Beasley etc could all surprise us and I'm sure there's a guy I probably missed.

4. There are a line up of guys that really seem like they could step in and be good serviceable role players like Poeltl, Sabonis, Prince, Brogdon, Hayes, Brice Johnson, Selden etc. I actually fail to see what this draft lacks to be considered a fairly good one as it has all the potential to be so.

Again as with ANY draft, the probability of players not being as good as expected is more likely. As maybe 12-15 guys out of draft turn out to be anything of note with the vast majority going in the lottery portion (which we are obviously in and have a great GM for spotting it). So really I don't see what more you can ask for...

[raptor jesus]

^^^ I'm not very high on either Simmons or Ingram, but I generally agree that there could be a lot of impact players in this draft. Even at 27, there's plenty of guys I like.

[Risk101]

Edit: wrong video.

[Stromile12]

I am on the Chriss bandwagon. It's not even close in my mind, if Chriss is available, you pick him. I feel confident that he is going to be a really good player in the NBA.

[Naysorn]

There's a part of me that wants to draft Zhou Qi.

[T-d0t]

There's a part of me that wants to draft Zhou Qi.

Too weak he'd get bullied

[Syd-TK3]

It sucks that we have so much pgs already cause the more I see from Jackson the more I see him going far

[Clutch0z24]

i like Masai's scouting ability and he has not really had a top 10 pick ever...
He found some gems Late like Powell/Faried/Evan Fournier/Wright in the later parts in the draft

his biggest blunder passed on Rodney Hood for Bruno which i still think will be a mistake longterm.

Passing on Portis seemed dumb at the beginning but at the end of the year Wright showed everyone he has some game so i cant be mad at that.

He signed Cojo and BB who are playing above expectations...

For a guy so smart as Ujiri is at the scouting game and seeing talent as good as he does with a top 10 pick...We should all be excited about who he picks...

In the past with with our other gms i was always horrified come draft night when we had a high pick...This year will be diff.

[Kevin Willis]

It sucks that we have so much pgs already cause the more I see from Jackson the more I see him going far

Yes our PGS - Lowry, CoJo, Wright and DeColo - is really strong. This draft was supposed to be a good bigs draft and that's what looks like it will happen. We can get a pretty good big and that's a need. Our wings are solid - Carroll, DD, Ross, Powell, Caboclo - so this draft will allow us to strengthen our weaknesses.

[zilby]

Wow the lottery is on Tuesday already!

[OAKLEY_2]

There's a part of me that wants to draft Zhou Qi.

That part of,you needs to be reintegrated into your more sensible part.

[OAKLEY_2]

It sucks that we have so much pgs already cause the more I see from Jackson the more I see him going far

Yes our PGS - Lowry, CoJo, Wright and DeColo - is really strong. This draft was supposed to be a good bigs draft and that's what looks like it will happen. We can get a pretty good big and that's a need. Our wings are solid - Carroll, DD, Ross, Powell, Caboclo - so this draft will allow us to strengthen our weaknesses.

Hope Chriss is still there there at 9. He is my hands down selection at 9. At 27 we should just take Thon and park him in 905. He's pretty much a home town kid.

[canballer]

Option 1) Trade up for Dragan Bender
Option 2) Sit and see if a desirable BPA drops (ie. Jamal Murray, Buddy Hield)
Option 3) Trade down for Furkan Korkmaz
Option 4) Package the pick for NBA player/s

These are the only guys that I like. Our end of the bench is legitimately too deep. The only "project" that interests me is Korkmaz. I like Marquese Chriss but he will probably climb and if it takes the 9th overall you have to think long and hard about whether the pick is worth more in a trade (since he is very unlikely to step into the starting lineup as our PF).

[Naysorn]

There's a part of me that wants to draft Zhou Qi.

That part of,you needs to be reintegrated into your more sensible part.

What if he becomes Porzingis2.0? Perfect fit next to JV.

[Patman]

We need to swing for the fences with this pick. We can be conservative and get a Norm-level player, but that won't take us to the next tier.

It's not everyday that you get a lotto pick w/o tanking.