The Value of Tanking

[Schad]

Okay, try this for a download link:

http://rapidshare.com/files/430201087/tankmetrics.xls

Don't mind the random cell somewhere around J50...Google Docs was kinda being a dick (it was making bizarre changes to formulae even when the cells that they linked to weren't changed, so I plopped that there to stop it).

[Ted Lasso]

Awesome read.

[C Court]

Not that I'm against it, but tanking is over-rated. None of this means anything if your talent evaluation on draft day sucks as Sub points out with the T-Wolves example.

Yes, the foundation of a winning team is typically built on the talents of a top pick. But the most successful franchises have the extraordinary ability to find stars with late first round and second round picks.

The Raptors have shown no ability to do this over their 15 year history. As long as Jim Kelly remains at the table, I don't see this changing.

[jalenrose#5]

The flipside to this... Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the Minnesota Timberwolves:

2010: Pick #4
2009: Pick #5
2009: Pick #6
2008: Pick #2
2008: Pick #3
2007: Pick #7
2006: Pick #5

2010 record: 2-7 (30th on offence, 27th on defence).

Brilliant.

Wesley Johnson
Ricky Rubio
Jonny Flynn
OJ Mayo-->Kevin Love
Corey Brewer
Brandon Roy--->Randy Foye

Well according to my research, it really looks like you can't fault the Wolves based on drafting good players..their trading at the draft is where they have ended up pooching it.

Taking two point guards at 5/6, dealing OJ Mayo for a no defence big man in Love and dealing away the best player from the 06 class are just the start of the troubles for this team.

It also doesn't help when your best player leaves for Utah neither.

But yeah, you do bring up a good point, it can go either way really.

[Rhettmatic]

Not that I'm against it, but tanking is over-rated. None of this means anything if your talent evaluation on draft day sucks as Sub points out with the T-Wolves example.

Yes, the foundation of a winning team is typically built on the talents of a top pick. But the most successful franchises have the extraordinary ability to find stars with late first round and second round picks.

The Raptors have shown no ability to do this over their 15 year history. As long as Jim Kelly remains at the table, I don't see this changing.

The Raptors have also shown no aptitude for finding free-agent gems or landing impact players through trade, though.

My hope for the draft is that our pick is high and there's a no-brainer selection at that spot that even Kelly, Colangelo and co. can't eff up.

[tecumseh18]

The flipside to this... Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the Minnesota Timberwolves:

And this is why we always have to keep in mind the other side of the picture - how the picks are used and the overall management of the team. The biggest tank in recent times has to be the 07-08 Miami Heat, but the subsequent draft ended up in having ZERO impact on their current success. In fact, they gave away their 2008 second overall draft pick for cap space. Their only saving grace was they have decent management and a (now) healthy DWade, who every one wants to play with.

In other words, the Raptors are all set to have a tanking season for the ages. But do we have confidence that the current management won't screw it up going forward?

[edit] Oops, CC scooped my point.

[JN]

BC has done an excellent job in unintentionally piecing together a team for a successful tank.

Of course the TPE and Expiring still exist which could mess up everything.

[jrsmith]

Not that I'm against it, but tanking is over-rated. None of this means anything if your talent evaluation on draft day sucks as Sub points out with the T-Wolves example.

Yes, the foundation of a winning team is typically built on the talents of a top pick. But the most successful franchises have the extraordinary ability to find stars with late first round and second round picks.

The Raptors have shown no ability to do this over their 15 year history. As long as Jim Kelly remains at the table, I don't see this changing.

Almost all winning franchises will get their franchise player in the lottery. (lebron, kobe, dwight, yao, dirk, wade, carmello, rose, duncan, durant, roy) and I could go on and on.

I would put a little more importance in getting a franchise player then "typically build their foundation in the lottery".

The raptors dont even have a starter on this team as it stands. Lets draft a legit franchise player first, be ready to take the next step then worry about what we do with our late picks. Although Jim Kelly is atrocious he is obviously not the one making decisions (unless colangelo is even more incompetent then most people think).

Lets walk before we can run first.

[Schad]

Yes, the foundation of a winning team is typically built on the talents of a top pick. But the most successful franchises have the extraordinary ability to find stars with late first round and second round picks.

This just isn't true. The Spurs are the only team that hit the big time with late 1sts/2nds, which means that one has to treat it as an aberration, not a game plan.

[Rhettmatic]

Yes, the foundation of a winning team is typically built on the talents of a top pick. But the most successful franchises have the extraordinary ability to find stars with late first round and second round picks.

This just isn't true. The Spurs are the only team that hit the big time with late 1sts/2nds, which means that one has to treat it as an aberration, not a game plan.

Plus, they tanked twice to land their true franchise players.

[Alfred]

Good read, Schad. Thanks.

But now I'm more paranoid than ever that Colangelo will cash in the TPE for a lottery ball-screwing end-of-year run. Yuck.

There is part of me that thinks if we're terrible, Colangelo will use the TPE to try and "salvage" the season, but the other part of me thinks that if we're anything but terrible, Colangelo will use the TPE to try and make a playoff push.

I guess we just have to hope for more losses, and pray that Colangelo doesn't use the TPE on a player that will cut into us aquiring as many ping pong balls as possible.

[Rhettmatic]

Good read, Schad. Thanks.

But now I'm more paranoid than ever that Colangelo will cash in the TPE for a lottery ball-screwing end-of-year run. Yuck.

There is part of me that thinks if we're terrible, Colangelo will use the TPE to try and "salvage" the season, but the other part of me thinks that if we're anything but terrible, Colangelo will use the TPE to try and make a playoff push.

I guess we just have to hope for more losses, and pray that Colangelo doesn't use the TPE on a player that will cut into us aquiring as many ping pong balls as possible.

I have exactly the same concern -- that if we're too bad, Colangelo will try to bring in a vet to save face.

For now, though, I'll just continue to hope for losses and keep my fingers crossed that either Colangelo has enough patience to see this through for at least one year, or that he continues to prove completely incapable of building a winning team, so even if he does panic and make moves in the hope of once again achieving mediocrity, he fails miserably and we still finish with a top 3 pick.

[JN]

The TPE impact is two fold - less lotto balls and less cap flexibility going forward.

And we will still think with that player.

[Alfred]

What I could see Colangelo doing is acquiring an injured player with the TPE, for next season.

[Schad]

And this is why we always have to keep in mind the other side of the picture - how the picks are used and the overall management of the team. The biggest tank in recent times has to be the 07-08 Miami Heat, but the subsequent draft ended up in having ZERO impact on their current success. In fact, they gave away their 2008 second overall draft pick for cap space. Their only saving grace was they have decent management and a (now) healthy DWade, who every one wants to play with.

In other words, the Raptors are all set to have a tanking season for the ages. But do we have confidence that the current management won't screw it up going forward?

[edit] Oops, CC scooped my point.

There will be bad players taken with very high picks...no one denies that. However, the nice thing about the top couple picks (and the reason there's such a steep dropoff thereafter) is that those picks are generally much harder to screw up. It certainly happens, but you aren't firing blindly into the abyss as you would be at slots 6-10. With the exception of very deep/very shallow draft pools, you'll typically have a choice between 3-4 players worthy of your slot, and if there's some separation your choice can be all but determined by the draft order.

[Rhettmatic]

The TPE impact is two fold - less lotto balls and less cap flexibility going forward.

I'd really like to see him hold it until the draft, where it could become pretty valuable. Let's say the lottery isn't kind to us and we end up in an unfavourable draft position -- we could use the TPE to take on an unwanted contract and move up a couple spots. Or even if we fare well with our own pick, we could use the TPE to upgrade the Miami pick for a team trying to immediately clear cap space.

Obviously, if there's a deal for a promising young guy on the table during the season, I'll be pleased. But otherwise I think the TPE could be fairly valuable around the draft, since we won't have meaningful cap space next year anyway (barring an unlikely Calderon trade or Barbosa opting out).

[JN]

In the hands of the Bryan Colangelo the TPE could either be an asset or a liability

[5DOM]

Not that I'm against it, but tanking is over-rated. None of this means anything if your talent evaluation on draft day sucks as Sub points out with the T-Wolves example.

Yes, the foundation of a winning team is typically built on the talents of a top pick. But the most successful franchises have the extraordinary ability to find stars with late first round and second round picks.

The Raptors have shown no ability to do this over their 15 year history. As long as Jim Kelly remains at the table, I don't see this changing.

There just has to be a consensus #1, if we do pick #1 overall.

[Tacoma]

There is part of me that thinks if we're terrible, Colangelo will use the TPE to try and "salvage" the season, but the other part of me thinks that if we're anything but terrible, Colangelo will use the TPE to try and make a playoff push.
...

IF we're terrible??? Umm... that ship has sailed. They're not in tank mode, they're just simply this bad. If they were tanking they wouldn't start Evans over Amir. Right now, while giving 100% effort (OK, maybe not Bargnani) and having just lost at home to a 1-6 team, they're cellar dwellers and unless Lebron is available, there's no one BC can get with the TPE that will make them playoff contenders. They're not remotely close.

[Hendrix]

I dont like it as much as WS like u did Shad. But I thought 82 games.com's crude drafts slot expected values article was pretty good.

http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

I wsa planning on anazlyzing that with mean draft positions based on finishing positions.

1- 2.642
2- 2.979
3- 3.407
4- 3.965
5- 4.688
6- 5.546
7- 6.526
8- 7.595
9- 8.71