Amir Johnson in decline? Look again.

[knickerbocker2k2]

I love Amir too, but face it people, he is on the decline, or at the very least he isn't going to get any better. Whatever his peak was, it has peaked. He still has great touch around the basket which I love, but I'm most disappointed in his defense. People wanna blame Valanciunas when the Raptors struggle on the boards, but I find that Amir is usually the real culprit when the Raptors give up offensive rebounds. All the years he had to play center and against guys bigger than him is starting to show.

Your eyes are deceiving. Part of getting defensive rebounds is being in position to get rebounds. Amir is our most help concisious player. He often is hedging on the perimeter on pick/rolls. He is often the one rotating and helping out. That means he is going to be out of rebounding position. JV on the other hand never leaves the paint. To the untrained eye he looks good because he is grabbing the rebounds. That necesarrily doesn't mean it is good for our defense.

Advanced stats have shown past 5 years Amir is our best defensive player. When he is on the floor, our team has defensive rating of 102.1 vs 104.2 total average. On the other JV has defensive rating of 107.8 which is the worst on the team (rotational players). It probably is even worse because JV/Amir played half the minutes together, making JV look better than he is on the defensive end. To show you how big of gulf that is, Amir defensive rating would be around top 10, while JV defensive rating would be in the bottom 5 team defense.

[hankscorpioLA]

he's a nice hardworking player, problem is hes too injury prone

Really?

He's missed 11 games in the past 4 seasons.

LeBron James has missed 16 games in the past 4 seasons.

Is LeBron James "too injury prone"?

[raptor jesus]

I love Amir too, but face it people, he is on the decline, or at the very least he isn't going to get any better. Whatever his peak was, it has peaked. He still has great touch around the basket which I love, but I'm most disappointed in his defense. People wanna blame Valanciunas when the Raptors struggle on the boards, but I find that Amir is usually the real culprit when the Raptors give up offensive rebounds. All the years he had to play center and against guys bigger than him is starting to show.

I would not bring Amir back, but if he does come back, I want him coming off the bench, not starting anymore.

This is a popular narrative, replacing Amir with a superior PF. But who is a realistic upgrade? I can't see the Bulls giving us Gibson, ATL will do what it takes to retain Millsap, same with Portland and LMA. Is an aged David West an upgrade? I know Thad Young isn't. David Lee could probably be had, but is the antithesis of Amir on the defensive end and would be our highest paid player (gross). Monroe doesn't defend either, is an awful fit beside JV, and will likely look for 10+ mill. Back to the Warriors, they'll bend over backwards to keep Draymond. Again I ask, who are people clamouring for as a realistic option? I'm not trying to be disparaging, I'm curious - maybe I'm missing someone.

[Lowrys Chode]

he's a nice hardworking player, problem is hes too injury prone

Is he though? I equate injury prone to missing games. By my count Amir has missed less than 20 games total as a Raptor.

Don't waste your breath. You can't convince these guys he's anything but injury prone.

[kwamebargnani]

he's a nice hardworking player, problem is hes too injury prone

Really?

He's missed 11 games in the past 4 seasons.

LeBron James has missed 16 games in the past 4 seasons.

Is LeBron James "too injury prone"?

He's certainly an injury risk going forward tho.

[Lowrys Chode]

he's a nice hardworking player, problem is hes too injury prone

Really?

He's missed 11 games in the past 4 seasons.

LeBron James has missed 16 games in the past 4 seasons.

Is LeBron James "too injury prone"?

He's certainly an injury risk going forward tho.

Prove it.

[Death Knight]

I love Amir too, but face it people, he is on the decline, or at the very least he isn't going to get any better. Whatever his peak was, it has peaked. He still has great touch around the basket which I love, but I'm most disappointed in his defense. People wanna blame Valanciunas when the Raptors struggle on the boards, but I find that Amir is usually the real culprit when the Raptors give up offensive rebounds. All the years he had to play center and against guys bigger than him is starting to show.

Your eyes are deceiving. Part of getting defensive rebounds is being in position to get rebounds. Amir is our most help concisious player. He often is hedging on the perimeter on pick/rolls. He is often the one rotating and helping out. That means he is going to be out of rebounding position. JV on the other hand never leaves the paint. To the untrained eye he looks good because he is grabbing the rebounds. That necesarrily doesn't mean it is good for our defense.

Advanced stats have shown past 5 years Amir is our best defensive player. When he is on the floor, our team has defensive rating of 102.1 vs 104.2 total average. On the other JV has defensive rating of 107.8 which is the worst on the team (rotational players). It probably is even worse because JV/Amir played half the minutes together, making JV look better than he is on the defensive end. To show you how big of gulf that is, Amir defensive rating would be around top 10, while JV defensive rating would be in the bottom 5 team defense.

Is this why we see JV battling 2 opposing players for rebounds so often because Amir leaves his man to help? Where's the next line of rotation after Amir? It is not fair to ask JV to guard 2 players at the same time.

I don't know about team Drtg, but his individual rating is 107 this year compared to 104 the past 2 years.

I guess some of you see Amir Hobbling and think it's okay?

Like I said, JV can still improve. Meanwhile, Amir has not only peaked, but his healthy isn't going to get any better either. Best we can hope is he maintain's status quo for a few more years, but I doubt it.

[JYD]

I would be curious what you consider starter salary. 2pat is getting paid $6M. If you pay Amir $10M, you would be paying $16M for 48Min for PF position (plus some backup C). Lot of teams are paying $16M for 32min of PF minutes.

Amir right now is maybe worth 7 per. The problem is he's declining though. I certainly would not hand him 10. I also don't think Amir+Patterson is a long term solution to PF. But if both have manageable contracts in the 6-7 per range it's a lot better.

[Berserk_Raptor]

i said injury prone because we cant play him heavy minutes every game

[hankscorpioLA]

How do the stats (in particular but not exclusively the advanced stats) from 2, 3 and 4 years ago compare? I'm personally to lazy to dig them up

Excuse me....too lazy to "dig them up"?

Is this 1998?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... sam01.html

There you go.

but I'm willing to bet if you looked at Amir's stats (advanced included and focused on) for the past 5 years you would see a decline.

I'd take that bet because you would be wrong.

His rebounding numbers have dropped off, but as I mentioned, that can partly be explained by the change in frontcourt pairing from Bargnani to Jonas. He takes more shots now, but he hits them at a similar rate. Assists are higher. Steals, blocks and turnovers are pretty consistent. Personal Fouls have come WAYYYYY down from 6.3 per 36 in his first year with Toronto to 4.4 this year.

So, no, there is absolutely no statistical evidence of a decline of any kind.

Also, I can just see it by watching the game, he looks slower and less athletic, still a solid player, but in decline relative to his prime.

So basically, what it comes down to is the "eye test".

Of course, even this is debatable. Perhaps he's not flying around the court like he used to, but you shouldn't confuse movement with effectiveness. In part, he may be moving differently because of his offseason efforts to avoid further ankle injury.

http://www.torontosun.com/2014/09/29/ra ... r-big-deal

Johnson was hobbled by various ankle sprains and strains last season, though he mostly played through everything. The longest-serving Raptor (tied with DeMar DeRozan) said he did not need any off-season ankle surgery and believes he has a better chance at staying healthy all year after going through some advanced sports science in the off-season.

“They broke it down. They stuck light bulbs on me, they have something where you can see your skeleton, the way you jump, run and move,” Johnson said. “They see the way I jump, the way I land. What I do in the game. It could be something as little as the way I turn my foot inward when I slide and it just saves me from rolling my ankle. I’ve been doing that pretty much all summer.”

To me, this makes sense as an explanation why Amir Johnson may SEEM to be less active.

That is why we look to the stats and the outcomes. And when we do that, we see no evidence of decline.

[hankscorpioLA]

he's a nice hardworking player, problem is hes too injury prone

Really?

He's missed 11 games in the past 4 seasons.

LeBron James has missed 16 games in the past 4 seasons.

Is LeBron James "too injury prone"?

He's certainly an injury risk going forward tho.

Why?

[Death Knight]

I love Amir too, but face it people, he is on the decline, or at the very least he isn't going to get any better. Whatever his peak was, it has peaked. He still has great touch around the basket which I love, but I'm most disappointed in his defense. People wanna blame Valanciunas when the Raptors struggle on the boards, but I find that Amir is usually the real culprit when the Raptors give up offensive rebounds. All the years he had to play center and against guys bigger than him is starting to show.

I would not bring Amir back, but if he does come back, I want him coming off the bench, not starting anymore.

This is a popular narrative, replacing Amir with a superior PF. But who is a realistic upgrade? I can't see the Bulls giving us Gibson, ATL will do what it takes to retain Millsap, same with Portland and LMA. Is an aged David West an upgrade? I know Thad Young isn't. David Lee could probably be had, but is the antithesis of Amir on the defensive end and would be our highest paid player (gross). Monroe doesn't defend either, is an awful fit beside JV, and will likely look for 10+ mill. Back to the Warriors, they'll bend over backwards to keep Draymond. Again I ask, who are people clamouring for as a realistic option? I'm not trying to be disparaging, I'm curious - maybe I'm missing someone.

That's not my job. Find someone.

How do the Raptors take that next step? With the current situation I don't doubt the Raptors will have a pretty regular season record for the next few years, but I don't buy them as a team that can perform well in the playoffs. I don't think anyone on the roster right now will improve enough to put the Raptors over. It's gonna have to be a new acquisition somewhere down the road. We're not getting over and beating Cleveland or Chicago in the playoffs with the current roster.

[knickerbocker2k2]

Is this why we see JV battling 2 opposing players for rebounds so often because Amir leaves his man to help? Where's the next line of rotation after Amir? It is not fair to ask JV to guard 2 players at the same time.

I don't know about team Drtg, but his individual rating is 107 this year compared to 104 the past 2 years.

I guess some of you see Amir Hobbling and think it's okay?

Like I said, JV can still improve. Meanwhile, Amir has not only peaked, but his healthy isn't going to get any better either. Best we can hope is he maintain's status quo for a few more years, but I doubt it.

You can make excuses for JV, but the numbers don't lie. If we are +10 better with hobbling Amir, I say we stick with it. Imagine how much better we would be once he no longer is "hobbling"?

NBA stats on team performance when each player is on the floor



Amir top performer from starters.

[Green Backpack]

Amir is a perfect PF for us as long as JV continues to develop offensively. It's understandable why people first say we need to replace Amir when JV doesn't have a great post game.. but it's quickly improving this season.

[Sizzle]

Not a personal attack OP but can we pleaseeee stop using the word NARRATIVE! It's annoying. Also.. Amir is just fine, his ankles are bad and I would guess that if we keep up out current pace he will be given the opportunity to rest for a few weeks later in the season.

[deck]

So can someone explain to me why everyone is so concerned about Amir Johnson?

Because it appears as if keeping up this level of play is slowly killing him.

[Death Knight]

Is this why we see JV battling 2 opposing players for rebounds so often because Amir leaves his man to help? Where's the next line of rotation after Amir? It is not fair to ask JV to guard 2 players at the same time.

I don't know about team Drtg, but his individual rating is 107 this year compared to 104 the past 2 years.

I guess some of you see Amir Hobbling and think it's okay?

Like I said, JV can still improve. Meanwhile, Amir has not only peaked, but his healthy isn't going to get any better either. Best we can hope is he maintain's status quo for a few more years, but I doubt it.

You can make excuses for JV, but the numbers don't lie. If we are +10 better with hobbling Amir, I say we stick with it. Imagine how much better we would be once he no longer is "hobbling"?

NBA stats on team performance when each player is on the floor



Amir top performer from starters.

But he won't stop hobbling, that's the point. Health can't get better without missing games. So if he misses games to get better then he hurts us with the missed games. If he doesn't miss games and continues to play, he won't stop hobbling and would probably get worse. We're only 2 months in. How is he gonna be in March?

Like I said, JV can get better. Amir can't.

[Badonkadonk]

Most people who think we can easily replace Amir don't know anything about basketball. He does so much off the ball that is not reflected in stats.



Look at Love and his empty rebounding stats. Guys like Love (including Faried/Hickson) just think about getting rebounds. Guys like Amir instead also rotate at the risk of being in worse defensive rebounding position. This is why his +/- are always off the roof. The guy plays for the team instead of looking for those empty stats.

Great post. It's not perfect, but the pro-Amir vs. upgrade-Amir divide is a pretty good proxy for recognizing who actually understands what they are watching.

I still see folks pining for a "scoring" PF despite the fact the Raps are humming along at a historic pace offensively. It boggles my mind.

[Dalek]

This is a great bit of detective work to show how Amir is still a key contributor. You still have to weigh in on what type of player you think he will be going into his next contract, but one thing I have noticed in the NBA is how players can get over chronic injuries later in their careers.

Grant Hill was always getting injured during the early part of his career, but he ended up playing at a high role player level into his mid-30s. My best-case comparison for Amir Johnson is probably Antonio McDyess. He was an athletic All-Star player during the early part of his career. When he signed a big contract with the Knicks he ended up having serious knee issues, surgery and was basically written off. By age 30 he became healthy again, and was able to play and make a huge impact for Pistons in their championship run. McDyess' late career numbers look very similar to Amir's.

I think Amir always figures out a way to stay on the court. He is smart enough to take better care of his body and get rest when he needs it. I'd keep him at a reasonable cost because he is everything you want in a teammate and Toronto ambassador.

[VinBaker6]

People that want Amir replaced are basketball noobs.

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