Road to 60

[jimmy keys]

Just keep winning!

60 is there within reach, but more importantly I want the 1st seed. Gotta get the 1st seed.

[team edward]

I'm thinking the 56-58 range, depends on what Casey does at the end of the season. I could see him potentially resting the starters a bit, but then again they've been playing fewer minutes anyway so maybe he won't see it as necessary.

yes but that would just lead to more wins, so 60+ is a sure thing!

[Hero_Panda]

I'll be disappointed if the Raptors don't win 60.

[shmoosicle]

I'll be happy with 57, a new franchise record.

[DJ_RnC]

The team is due for the annual post-ASB slump, they will limp their way to the playoffs like they always do.

What's your rationale?

DeRozan and Lowry have played significantly fewer minutes and the offense is much less dependent on their scoring.

The roster is much deeper.

The second unit has taken on a much bigger load than ever before.

All of these are reasons why past performance is not a reliable indicator of what is likely to happen this year.

He's just team negative. We went 16-7 last year after the break so he's also lacking facts.

Rationale is simple, this sort of success isn't sustainable, any success this team has seen has never been sustainable. Top 5 in both offensive and defensive rating so far this season, you expect that to last all 82 games and into the playoffs?

Lowry has a tendency to get hurt every year around this time (back in 2015, elbow in 2016, wrist surgery in 2017) and the decrease in minutes doesn't completely prevent that. This is a very valid point to bring especially since last year's post-ASB record is being used against me, where he did not play until the last 5 games of the season and the record is skewed due to making moves at the trade deadline (the team was a mess before the trades). Maybe the decrease in minutes does help him but unless shown otherwise this is just who he is, he's old and injury prone and his body cannot sustain an 82-game season.

They have been very fortunate to not have the bench hit a lull this season (except Norm), these kids are still young and they may not be rookies but they can most definitely hit the "rookie wall" due to never playing so many minutes consistently throughout the course of a season. They've been a great bench so far but they aren't proven and have no veterans to take them through the grind of an 82-game season. The bench success cannot be assumed to be sustainable either.

Looking at the rest of the NBA, the Raptors have been playing their best so far but other teams do not consider ramping up their intensity until after the ASB. This is when the games really start to matter and teams fight for seeding. Look at the East, 4-10 is a bloodbath, every team will be playing at high intensity to secure a playoff spot. Other playoff teams will look to solidify their spots in the standings. Boston will look to turn things around, Cavs will be making a push for 1st, Golden State and Houston will be battling it out for the first seed out west. Raptors have shown that when their opponent plays at a playoff-like intensity even in the regular season, they struggle immensely.

This team has seen unsustainable success this year and law of averages will bring them down, similar to what the Celtics are going through right now.

[Steelo Green]

What's your rationale?

DeRozan and Lowry have played significantly fewer minutes and the offense is much less dependent on their scoring.

The roster is much deeper.

The second unit has taken on a much bigger load than ever before.

All of these are reasons why past performance is not a reliable indicator of what is likely to happen this year.

He's just team negative. We went 16-7 last year after the break so he's also lacking facts.

Rationale is simple, this sort of success isn't sustainable, any success this team has seen has never been sustainable. Top 5 in both offensive and defensive rating so far this season, you expect that to last all 82 games and into the playoffs?

Lowry has a tendency to get hurt every year around this time (back in 2015, elbow in 2016, wrist surgery in 2017) and the decrease in minutes doesn't completely prevent that. This is a very valid point to bring especially since last year's post-ASB record is being used against me, where he did not play until the last 5 games of the season and the record is skewed due to making moves at the trade deadline (the team was a mess before the trades). Maybe the decrease in minutes does help him but unless shown otherwise this is just who he is, he's old and injury prone and his body cannot sustain an 82-game season.

They have been very fortunate to not have the bench hit a lull this season (except Norm), these kids are still young and they may not be rookies but they can most definitely hit the "rookie wall" due to never playing so many minutes consistently throughout the course of a season. They've been a great bench so far but they aren't proven and have no veterans to take them through the grind of an 82-game season. The bench success cannot be assumed to be sustainable either.

Looking at the rest of the NBA, the Raptors have been playing their best so far but other teams do not consider ramping up their intensity until after the ASB. This is when the games really start to matter and teams fight for seeding. Look at the East, 4-10 is a bloodbath, every team will be playing at high intensity to secure a playoff spot. Other playoff teams will look to solidify their spots in the standings. Boston will look to turn things around, Cavs will be making a push for 1st, Golden State and Houston will be battling it out for the first seed out west. Raptors have shown that when their opponent plays at a playoff-like intensity even in the regular season, they struggle immensely.

This team has seen unsustainable success this year and law of averages will bring them down, similar to what the Celtics are going through right now.

Your entire point is predicated on the past as being a prediction for the future as though everything has stayed stagnant and there has been 0 change.

The offense is completely different, the bench is completely ravamped and best in the league, Val is better, a full season of Serge integration, 5 less minutes a game for Kyle, Demar has improved his passing to a level never thought possible and can hit the long ball.

We are top three in SRS and Point differential and it's not even close.

We were never at this level at any point ever and we've never had this kind of production across the board at any point ever.

This team I still think loses to the Cavs, but they should be a lock for the conference finals at worse. If they fail, then they fail, but a team that was worse two years ago made it and if they don't face the Cavs should have their best playoff showing ever.

[DJ_RnC]

He's just team negative. We went 16-7 last year after the break so he's also lacking facts.

Rationale is simple, this sort of success isn't sustainable, any success this team has seen has never been sustainable. Top 5 in both offensive and defensive rating so far this season, you expect that to last all 82 games and into the playoffs?

Lowry has a tendency to get hurt every year around this time (back in 2015, elbow in 2016, wrist surgery in 2017) and the decrease in minutes doesn't completely prevent that. This is a very valid point to bring especially since last year's post-ASB record is being used against me, where he did not play until the last 5 games of the season and the record is skewed due to making moves at the trade deadline (the team was a mess before the trades). Maybe the decrease in minutes does help him but unless shown otherwise this is just who he is, he's old and injury prone and his body cannot sustain an 82-game season.

They have been very fortunate to not have the bench hit a lull this season (except Norm), these kids are still young and they may not be rookies but they can most definitely hit the "rookie wall" due to never playing so many minutes consistently throughout the course of a season. They've been a great bench so far but they aren't proven and have no veterans to take them through the grind of an 82-game season. The bench success cannot be assumed to be sustainable either.

Looking at the rest of the NBA, the Raptors have been playing their best so far but other teams do not consider ramping up their intensity until after the ASB. This is when the games really start to matter and teams fight for seeding. Look at the East, 4-10 is a bloodbath, every team will be playing at high intensity to secure a playoff spot. Other playoff teams will look to solidify their spots in the standings. Boston will look to turn things around, Cavs will be making a push for 1st, Golden State and Houston will be battling it out for the first seed out west. Raptors have shown that when their opponent plays at a playoff-like intensity even in the regular season, they struggle immensely.

This team has seen unsustainable success this year and law of averages will bring them down, similar to what the Celtics are going through right now.

Your entire point is predicated on the past as being a prediction for the future as though everything has stayed stagnant and there has been 0 change.

The offense is completely different, the bench is completely ravamped and best in the league, Val is better, a full season of Serge integration, 5 less minutes a game for Kyle, Demar has improved his passing to a level never thought possible and can hit the long ball.

We are top three in SRS and Point differential and it's not even close.

We were never at this level at any point ever and we've never had this kind of production across the board at any point ever.

This team I still think loses to the Cavs, but they should be a lock for the conference finals at worse. If they fail, then they fail, but a team that was worse two years ago made it and if they don't face the Cavs should have their best playoff showing ever.

Predicated on the past being a prediction for the future yet you use last year's post-ASB record as a rebuttal to my initial point. It's just how sports work especially when the core group of guys (Lowry, Derozan, JV) have been constant over the past couple of years. Why does the American media shut down the Raptors? Playoff performance, history has shown that this team cannot perform in the playoffs year after year. Do they perhaps blow it out of proportion? Yes but that's a different topic.

Overall the point stands, in sports everyone uses previous recent history to predict what will happen in the future, that's what is available to make opinions. People don't believe in the Raptors because they don't show up in the playoffs, I don't believe in them yet because year-after-year they have started the season well and then faltered as the season has gone, eventually to leave a lot to be desired in the postseason.

[AreBe]

Um, Slap a Rap.
5 on 8.
We can still win but we are starting each game down 10 or more.
The refs can't make the other team's free throws.
The refs cannot stop the Raptors from boxing out the other team, getting a defensive rebound , running down the court and scoring in transition (they can decide not to award a clear path foul.)
The refs can't take away a 3 unless they choose to not review it.
So, yes, the Raps can win 60 provided Cleveland wins 61

[ropjhk]

I'm thinking 58 wins, maybe 59. Lots will depend on whether the Celts and Cavs are still playing for playoff position near the end of the season and whether the Raptors are willing to keep pushing the win total.

[phillipmike]

If we are healthy we get right to 60 wins.

[bluerap23]

Schedule is super easy. It is actually hard to find 5 losses. Cleveland twice, boston, houston. Every other game we should be a strong favourite for and this team has been very good at winning games they should win.

[pingpongrac]

I look at the loss @BOS as the turning point of the season. We were 7-5, our ORTG was 108 and our DRTG was 103.5 after that loss. We still looked to be sorting things out, especially offensively.

We've went 34-11 since then (tied with GSW for the most wins, though HOU has a slightly better record at 33-10), our ORTG is 111.5 (4th), our DRTG is 102.4 (3rd, but just 0.4 behind SAS for 1st) and our NetRTG is a league-best +9.1. For three months, we've arguably been the best team in the league.

I think we keep the pace we've been at for the past three months and win 60 or 61 games. If we start to run away with the East, though, I could see us resting players more and those three straight games against BOS/CLE might be somewhat meaningless then we could drop two or even all three.

[Veggamattic]

I say 61-62. No reason I can see that we loose more than 4-5 games...this team has a make-up that can handle adversity.

[fouronesix22]

I would like for them to get 60 but I would rather they focus on getting furthur in the playoffs. Also if try to have the 1 seed come playoff time means getting 60 then go for it

[DHK]

I think the Raptors finish 58-24. They are 41-16 right now so they would have to go 17-8 for the final 25 games to achieve that record.

Right now the chances and spreads are:

80% chance of winning on Feb 23 vs Bucks -8.5
90% chance of winning on Feb 26 vs Pistons -13.5
78% chance of winning on Feb 28 @ Magic -7.5
56% chance of winning on Mar 2 @ Wizards -1.5
84% chance of winning on Mar 4 vs Hornets -10

92% chance of winning on Mar 6 vs Hawks -15.5
64% chance of winning on Mar 7 @ Pistons -3.5
57% chance of winning on Mar 9 vs Rockets -2
75% chance of winning on Mar 11 @ Knicks -7
81% chance of winning on Mar 13 @ Nets -9

59% chance of winning on Mar 15 @ Pacers -2
86% chance of winning on Mar 16 vs Mavericks -11.5
76% chance of winning on Mar 18 vs Thunder -7
77% chance of winning on Mar 20 @ Magic -7.5
47% chance of winning on Mar 21 @ Cavaliers +0.5

93% chance of winning on Mar 23 vs Nets -15.5
78% chance of winning on Mar 25 vs Clippers -7.5
85% chance of winning on Mar 27 vs Nuggets -10.5
60% chance of winning on Mar 31 @ Celtics -2.5
54% chance of winning on Apr 3 @ Cavaliers -1

80% chance of winning on Apr 4 vs Celtics -8.5
85% chance of winning on Apr 6 vs Pacers -11
91% chance of winning on Apr 8 vs Magic -14.5
70% chance of winning on Apr 9 @ Pistons -5
64% chance of winning on Apr 11 @ Heat -3.5

Predictably, the only game Raptors are not favoured in is a 2nd night of a back to back at Cleveland with the previous night being at Orlando.

Sorry, using your post to look at and talk about the scheduling.

Anyway
I dont see how they get less than equal to 6 losses.
Rockets assuming are healthy..are a different team and they want blood after we blew them out on their home court.
That b2b vs Cavs seems like a scheduled loss. The April 4 vs Celtics on a b2b is probably a loss as well since they bring it.
Washington always plays us tough for whatever reason so that's a 50/50.

That's already 3/4 losses.
You're assuming we have a clean sheet against all the lottery/playoff teams and I can see 2 random losses


And April 9/11, I'm assuming we'll be resting the majority of our players in preparation for playoffs. Pistons/Heat are going to relentless in those games because I have a gut feeling 6-9 will be decided by the final 1-2 games of the season.

[hankscorpioLA]

What's your rationale?

DeRozan and Lowry have played significantly fewer minutes and the offense is much less dependent on their scoring.

The roster is much deeper.

The second unit has taken on a much bigger load than ever before.

All of these are reasons why past performance is not a reliable indicator of what is likely to happen this year.

He's just team negative. We went 16-7 last year after the break so he's also lacking facts.

Rationale is simple, this sort of success isn't sustainable, any success this team has seen has never been sustainable. Top 5 in both offensive and defensive rating so far this season, you expect that to last all 82 games and into the playoffs?

I don't know. We have never been top 5 in offensive and defensive ranking at this point in the season before.

Lowry has a tendency to get hurt every year around this time (back in 2015, elbow in 2016, wrist surgery in 2017) and the decrease in minutes doesn't completely prevent that. This is a very valid point to bring especially since last year's post-ASB record is being used against me, where he did not play until the last 5 games of the season and the record is skewed due to making moves at the trade deadline (the team was a mess before the trades). Maybe the decrease in minutes does help him but unless shown otherwise this is just who he is, he's old and injury prone and his body cannot sustain an 82-game season.

You cannot remove the person from their circumstances. The only evidence you have to support this is what has happened based on his past workload. Lowry is playing 10% fewer minutes this year. That means less wear and tear on his body. That means a reduced likelihood of injury. If Lowry played 10 minutes a game, would you still think he would break down? Probably not.

They have been very fortunate to not have the bench hit a lull this season (except Norm), these kids are still young and they may not be rookies but they can most definitely hit the "rookie wall" due to never playing so many minutes consistently throughout the course of a season. They've been a great bench so far but they aren't proven and have no veterans to take them through the grind of an 82-game season. The bench success cannot be assumed to be sustainable either.

Your entire argument is predicated on the past...except here...where its predicated on...I'm not sure what. What you have here is a logical fallacy. The onus is on you to give a valid reason why the bench success is not sustainable, because at the moment, there is no evidence to suggest it isn't.

Looking at the rest of the NBA, the Raptors have been playing their best so far but other teams do not consider ramping up their intensity until after the ASB. This is when the games really start to matter and teams fight for seeding. Look at the East, 4-10 is a bloodbath, every team will be playing at high intensity to secure a playoff spot. Other playoff teams will look to solidify their spots in the standings. Boston will look to turn things around, Cavs will be making a push for 1st, Golden State and Houston will be battling it out for the first seed out west. Raptors have shown that when their opponent plays at a playoff-like intensity even in the regular season, they struggle immensely.

So other teams are going to ramp up their intensity...but the Raptors are just going to play at exactly the same level they have all season. And the Raptors have SHOWN they can't play at a playoff-like intensity, even though, according to you, other teams haven't played at that level all season.

This team has seen unsustainable success this year and law of averages will bring them down, similar to what the Celtics are going through right now.

I gotta say...you used a lot of words to provide absolutely no evidence to support this argument.

[shmoosicle]

Schedule is super easy. It is actually hard to find 5 losses. Cleveland twice, boston, houston. Every other game we should be a strong favourite for and this team has been very good at winning games they should win.

That's true, we currently only have two losses against losing teams (New York & Dallas).

[Yallbecrazy]

Adding up all the percentages from that win probability thing we get 18.62 wins vs 6.38 losses. So, 59 or 60 are probably the most likely outcomes

[XxIronChainzxX]

The team is due for the annual post-ASB slump, they will limp their way to the playoffs like they always do.

We don't really slump post ASB as much as we do before, and the ASB is late now.

[ThemCrookedRefs]

It kind of depends on how the Celtics fare from here. I think this team really wants to finish #1, so if the Celtics get close, the Raptors will keep gunning for 60 wins.

I think we finish at about 57-58 though. My guess is we secure the #1 spot with about 4 games left and rest Lowry/DD a couple games to end the year

No need to sit them since they'll get their rest in the 4th quarters .