Do these dominant lineups (already) signal a tight playoff rotation?

[Joker]

I feel like Delon is going to break out more in the second half of the season, as he gets momentum and comfortable with the rotational changes this year.

He's just too good not to, barring injuries affecting his play. He can kind of do a bit of everything, like the guard version of Siakam.

The key thing with him is just being healthy and not being tentative taking the 3's that the defense is giving him.

Confident, healthy Delon is a sneaky-good two-way player, deserving of 18+ minutes a game.

[PT416]

Kawhi 95 ......... Durant 95
Lowry 88 ......... Curry 95
Siakam 85 ....... Thompson 87
Ibaka 83 .......... Green 84
Green 82 .......... Cousins 79
JV 82 ................ Iguodala 77
FVV 82 ............. Livingston 76
OG 79 .............. Jerebko 75
AVG: ................... AVG:
84.5 ................... 83.5

This is how I rate our 8 man rotation vs GS. They're more top heavy so they have an advantage but we're better overall from 1-8. I need a life.

[Dalek]

FVV is in a helluva a lot of Toronto's best defensive line-ups. Makes you wonder if they will still invest in Wright.

My gut tells me that Delon gets moved to make room for Powell on the bench, plus there is an opportunity to upgrade on OG for this year. A player like Richaun Holmes, Trevor Ariza, even Markieff Morris should be good options.

I love OG but his poor FT shooting is not going to fly in the playoffs.I'd give him another year of seasoning.

[Basketball_Jones]

Vleet is like our new Patterson.

[sidsid]

I also think Delon is going to get more than 0 mins.

Probably true, but he's not necessary. His net rating doesn't look good right now, but it's possible his numbers would look better with more minutes alongside more starters.

Ding ding ding. This is the only reason FVV is on any of these lists. He's the first man off the bench and gets premium minutes that none of our other bench players get, even though he's been mostly brutal the entire year.

Switch who comes off the bench first and they'd likely be on this list.

FVV has been the co-main reason (along with Miles) as to why the bench has been bad. His overdribling that kills all flow only happens when he's leading the bench. When he's on with the starters that isn't a problem so he isn't bringing down those lineups

We don't have the data to show Delon or someone else what they'd look like with the starters, but Delon brings so much more off the ball than FVV does that I'd be surprised if it wasn't an upgrade.

And the Lowry/FVV size issue has cost us wins. It is far from automatic as a rotation.

[Wannabe MEP]

FVV has been the co-main reason (along with Miles) as to why the bench has been bad.

The bench was excellent last year, and then the whole frontcourt gets swapped out, and then the bench struggles. You don't think the loss of Siakam and Poeltl is significant? I don't think he all of a sudden got bad at basketball.

He killed it with the bench last year, and then he's killing it with the starters this year. We have evidence like this:

• Fred w/ Lowry-Green-Siakam-Ibaka +30.4 (72 minutes)
• Kawhi w/ Lowry-Green-Siakam-Ibaka +11.1 (293 minutes)

• Fred-Siakam-Poeltl . . . +15.2 last year (841 minutes)
• Fred-Siakam-Ibaka . . . +23.5 this year (172 minutes)

• RPM last year: #10 among PGs
• RPM this year: #19 among PGs

By the way, aren't a lot of the bench struggles on defense? E.g. ...

Fred-Delon-Miles-OG-JV

• ORtg: 109.7 (good)
• DRtg: 114.8 (really bad)

[Chandan]

we should bring Kawhi off the bench for some instant scoring. Starters have no problem without him.

[dhackett1565]

One concerning thing about that list of lineups is that Green is in all of them. So we need to find some looks without each player so every player can get rest during the game.

Certainly it will make sense to roll a tighter rotation in the playoffs. But we'll need to wait until later in the season to get big enough samples of the non-primary lineups to figure out how to best assemble that tighter rotation.

[sidsid]

FVV has been the co-main reason (along with Miles) as to why the bench has been bad.

The bench was excellent last year, and then the whole frontcourt gets swapped out, and then the bench struggles. You don't think the loss of Siakam and Poeltl is significant? I don't think he all of a sudden got bad at basketball.

He killed it with the bench last year, and then he's killing it with the starters this year. We have evidence like this:

• Fred w/ Lowry-Green-Siakam-Ibaka +30.4 (72 minutes)
• Kawhi w/ Lowry-Green-Siakam-Ibaka +11.1 (293 minutes)

• Fred-Siakam-Poeltl . . . +15.2 last year (841 minutes)
• Fred-Siakam-Ibaka . . . +23.5 this year (172 minutes)

• RPM last year: #10 among PGs
• RPM this year: #19 among PGs

By the way, aren't a lot of the bench struggles on defense? E.g. ...

Fred-Delon-Miles-OG-JV

• ORtg: 109.7 (good)
• DRtg: 114.8 (really bad)

Siakam has taken a leap this year, and is by far our third best player. Fred gets to play those early starter minutes with him and the rest of starters, who are carrying the team this year (it was the opposite last year). Again, he gets to play alongside Lowry, our MVP for the first half of our games, more than any other guard.

It explains every stat you brought up.

The bench was great last year for a combination of reasons. A big one was the system we played which suited every player on the bench, including FVV, well. The loss of Siakam, our most versatile player on both ends is an issue, but not one that should move a bench that was lapping the field as the best in the league to floundering in the bottom half in the league this year and costing us games (again, Miles is a big problem here).

FVV is a good player, he's just no longer in a role/system that suits his skillset. He's been asked to be Lowry for the second unit, and he obviously doesn't have the talent to do it (partially a coaching fault here).

When FVV is not overdribling, the bench has looked good. He is a cog in a system that isn't any better than the others, although the coaching doesn't seem to see it.

[Wannabe MEP]

One concerning thing about that list of lineups is that Green is in all of them.

That's a problem for this team, period. The Raptors have been dominant when Green plays and bad when he sits:

- Green on court net rating: +17.9
- Green off court net rating: -8.4
- Green on/off differential: +26.3

^ Those numbers are stunning. I think that's the biggest differential for core rotation players in the NBA. It means that Green is in an optimal role, but also that the Raptors are struggling to replace what he brings any other way.

[Wannabe MEP]

One of my assumptions was that Lowry-Fred-Kawhi could cover when Green sits. Apparently not:

Lowry-Fred-Kawhi (no Green): -18.1 (75 minutes)
Lowry-Green-Kawhi: +15.9
Lowry-Fred-Green: +30.2
Fred-Green-Kawhi: +27.0

[KrazyP]

This is in stark contrast with last year, when many of the team's most effective units were

The team last year had an extremely flawed starting front line. Ibaka-JV-rookie OG....this resembled nothing close to what you'd expect from a team trying to be a "contender". Ibaka played like a complete scrub at the 4, OG was a rookie just figuring things out and the pairing of JV-Ibaka was slow as hell for the modern NBA.

Casey's insistence on having a completely different bench unit from starting unit (no mixing) made things worse. Nurse might be running the same plays as Casey but at least he's mixing and matching lineups to see what works and what doesn't.

As for the tight rotation, I think Delon will deserve to be part of it. Miles is the guy that should be dropped, he's forgotten how to play basketball.

[The Duke]

I want Green to get the heaviest minutes in close games.

[Johnny Bball]

One concerning thing about that list of lineups is that Green is in all of them. So we need to find some looks without each player so every player can get rest during the game.

Certainly it will make sense to roll a tighter rotation in the playoffs. But we'll need to wait until later in the season to get big enough samples of the non-primary lineups to figure out how to best assemble that tighter rotation.

Meh. We do only have one true SG and 3 PGs. I mean, Wright plays SG, but he really isn't one.

I think we could use some depth at both PF and SG at the trade deadline/waiver wire.

[Patman]

One concerning thing about that list of lineups is that Green is in all of them.

That's a problem for this team, period. The Raptors have been dominant when Green plays and bad when he sits:

- Green on court net rating: +17.9
- Green off court net rating: -8.4
- Green on/off differential: +26.3

^ Those numbers are stunning. I think that's the biggest differential for core rotation players in the NBA. It means that Green is in an optimal role, but also that the Raptors are struggling to replace what he brings any other way.

Danny Green is our new Patrick Patterson haha.

[Wannabe MEP]

we should bring Kawhi off the bench for some instant scoring. Starters have no problem without him.

I agree with this purely strategically, a la Manu on the Spurs and Iguodala on the Warriors. But not a chance a first year head coach brings an MVP candidate (with something of a fragile/volatile ego, in a contract year) off the bench.