"Superstar" as shot-clock release valve

[junot111]

Jesus christ this board overrates our players so much. Fred had a great 4 game series against a team of g-leaguers, and suddenly he's a superstar scorer lmao

OP is right. We are going to struggle to score against elite defenses in crunch time because we don't have a go-to isolation scorer. It's been evident all year.

[everdiso]

Every single rap can shoot.

Just find the open man.

Sure, in transition and normal half court. But what if no one's open with 4 seconds on the shot clock?

We have a number of guys who should be able to get a step on any one one one coverage.

[everdiso]

Jesus christ this board overrates our players so much. Fred had a great 4 game series against a team of g-leaguers, and suddenly he's a superstar scorer lmao

OP is right. We are going to struggle to score against elite defenses in crunch time because we don't have a go-to isolation scorer. It's been evident all year.

This board actually has overwhelmingly underrated all these raps players pretty much every year.

That's why the team is always better - much better - than predicted.

As for what's "been evident all year in crunch time"....the raps have been outright awesome in crunch time all year

Team Clutch Stats: 96.1pts per36 (#2), 48.1fg% (#3), 64.1ts% (#2), 120.3ortg (#4)

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

Here's something nobody else in the east can show you. Their players in the finals going off.

Watch on YouTube

[Raps1103]

Jesus christ this board overrates our players so much. Fred had a great 4 game series against a team of g-leaguers, and suddenly he's a superstar scorer lmao

OP is right. We are going to struggle to score against elite defenses in crunch time because we don't have a go-to isolation scorer. It's been evident all year.

Yo, casual... maybe U shoulda watched a few games this year, where Freddy was clutch AF all season, and gets to the rim at will.. also .. maybe check out last years finals... Freddy was damn near godly !!! ( even got one vote for FMVP)

But yea... keep pretending it’s only a 4 game sample size !!

[junot111]

Jesus christ this board overrates our players so much. Fred had a great 4 game series against a team of g-leaguers, and suddenly he's a superstar scorer lmao

OP is right. We are going to struggle to score against elite defenses in crunch time because we don't have a go-to isolation scorer. It's been evident all year.

Yo, casual... maybe U shoulda watched a few games this year, where Freddy was clutch AF all season, and gets to the rim at will.. also .. maybe check out last years finals... Freddy was damn near godly !!! ( even got one vote for FMVP)

But yea... keep pretending it’s only a 4 game sample size !!

Fred averaged 17.6 points on 41% FG this season, 55.3% TS. The scoring average was 53rd best in the league and the TS was below league average. I watched plenty of games and saw him get to the rim "at will" and get blocked half the time. Am I saying he's below average? Of course not. He's a great shooter and distributor that can make timely baskets and plays amazing defense. But it's clear he is not some amazing scorer that you can just dump the ball to make a play against a good set defense.

But yeah I'm the casual lol. Keep overrating our players and then overreacting in game threads when they don't live up to your unrealistic expectations

[junot111]

Jesus christ this board overrates our players so much. Fred had a great 4 game series against a team of g-leaguers, and suddenly he's a superstar scorer lmao

OP is right. We are going to struggle to score against elite defenses in crunch time because we don't have a go-to isolation scorer. It's been evident all year.

This board actually has overwhelmingly underrated all these raps players pretty much every year.

That's why the team is always better - much better - than predicted.

As for what's "been evident all year in crunch time"....the raps have been outright awesome in crunch time all year

Team Clutch Stats: 96.1pts per36 (#2), 48.1fg% (#3), 64.1ts% (#2), 120.3ortg (#4)

you missed where I said against elite defenses. We had a losing record against the top teams.

[Wannabe MEP]

https://stats.nba.com/teams/shots-shotclock/?Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&ShotClockRange=4-0%20Very%20Late&sort=EFG_PCT&dir=1

Raptors were 25th in the league in EFG% in the last four seconds of the shot clock during the regular season.

[Raps1103]

Jesus christ this board overrates our players so much. Fred had a great 4 game series against a team of g-leaguers, and suddenly he's a superstar scorer lmao

OP is right. We are going to struggle to score against elite defenses in crunch time because we don't have a go-to isolation scorer. It's been evident all year.

Yo, casual... maybe U shoulda watched a few games this year, where Freddy was clutch AF all season, and gets to the rim at will.. also .. maybe check out last years finals... Freddy was damn near godly !!! ( even got one vote for FMVP)

But yea... keep pretending it’s only a 4 game sample size !!

Fred averaged 17.6 points on 41% FG this season, 55.3% TS. The scoring average was 53rd best in the league and the TS was below league average. I watched plenty of games and saw him get to the rim "at will" and get blocked half the time. Am I saying he's below average? Of course not. He's a great shooter and distributor that can make timely baskets and plays amazing defense. But it's clear he is not some amazing scorer that you can just dump the ball to make a play against a good set defence.

But yeah I'm the casual lol. Keep overrating our players and then overreacting in game threads when they don't live up to your unrealistic expectations

I guess if you just throw out nonsense hyperbole like “gets blocked half the time” it makes your argument sound really strong ... but obviously that’s just idiotic and anyone that watches knows that you’re simply spouting lies to strengthen your point !! You threw out some cute stats that don’t prove anything ! We were talking about clutch plays .. EOC shot makers ... so I’m not sure how his reg season ppg is relevant or any of those stats !! Freddy is clutch AF as he’s shown in the playoffs time n time again ... I also noticed that you completely avoided the part about last years PO performance .. ( finals ) and getting a vote for FMVP on the greatest stage ( he also HIT the “go ahead 3” that GSW never recovered from to win the Ship... but yea... I guess he gets “blocked half the time “

[HeadtopChunes]

Applying to the Raptors...

In terms of overall efficiency, the loss of Kawhi has not caused an obvious problem for the Raptors. Their overall net rating is actually better this year than last year: +5.8 to +6.1. They clearly are capable of playing efficient offense and efficient defense without Kawhi. But in last year's playoffs, Kawhi was the end-of-clock solution.

So what's the solution without him? Can you have a good answer to this that isn't a "superstar"?

• Is it a particular player? Who?
• Can this be done by committee?
• Can the Raptors answer this indirectly, by 1) being efficient everywhere else, and 2) playing fast enough in the half-court to rarely face shot-clocks blowing up on them?

- Vs 0-4 secs on the clock, Raps shooting 50eFG% so far this POs, last yr they shot 39.3 eFG%, so far so good.
- < = 3PT game/1 min left in game, Raps shot 1/1 this POs, last yr 6/22, so far so good.

Cant tell much from these tiny samples, but added context.

You can have an offense by committee, its just more complex than dumping the ball and clearing out. If were talking EOC/EOG scenarios, its probably going to be Siakam/FVV/Lowry initiating, with alot of screens and drives to create advantageous mismatches. The thing is, we play quite fast (22nd in NBA in Time per possession), and evidenced with our #1 volume (in both RS/POs) transition offense. It buoys our offense big time.

What concerns me about the Cs, is they are great at getting back and denying transition both volume/DPPP. If this series is going to be a half court slog, im not sure the Raps can win.

We have turned it over alot to them, 2nd highest (to MEM) TOV% against this yr, conversely we dont force enough TOVs on them, so if they holds they are likely to get more opportunity. Its not like BOS shot well vs us (54.6 TS%), they just got ~1/4th of their points per 100 possessions off TOV points. If you dont like that, think of it 103 total points vs our 54 over 4 games in which we were outscored by 28 total points. TOVs are going to be huge in this series IMO.

This is going to be a match up of 2 great PnR D teams too, so thats going to be fun to watch. I think if we can force them to ISO/PostUp, they can be inefficient enough to get a) some stops, and b) some transition off them.

But to your original point, I think you can be successful with an offense by committee depending on who those players are collectively. GSW had 3 clutch killers at one point, they didnt need a hierarchy to be successful.

Yeah i think this could be the potential difference in this series is that the Celtics have better ISO players (although not having Hayward helps).

I know the actual numbers are notriously bad for this but looking at the NBA.com data, this passes the eye test as well

Celtics ISO (reg season)

Tatum 1.00PPP
Kemba 1.04 PPP
Brown 0.82 PPP
Hayward 1.15PPP (him being out will be huge for this series IMO)


Raptors
Siakam 0.88PPP
Fred 0.81 PPP
Kyle 0.87 PPP
Norm 1.11PPP (very low amount of possessions)

[Chandan]

we need mike james back.

[ItsDanger]

Solution: Don't let it get to a game 7 last second shot.

[everdiso]

https://stats.nba.com/teams/shots-shotclock/?Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&ShotClockRange=4-0%20Very%20Late&sort=EFG_PCT&dir=1

Raptors were 25th in the league in EFG% in the last four seconds of the shot clock during the regular season.

True.

The Celtics were 11th, the Clippers were 21st, and the Mavs were 28th.

With 4-7 seconds left ("Late"), the Raps were 20th. Nuggets were 19th. Rockets 21st. Celtics 30th.

[nabbs]

Yo, casual... maybe U shoulda watched a few games this year, where Freddy was clutch AF all season, and gets to the rim at will.. also .. maybe check out last years finals... Freddy was damn near godly !!! ( even got one vote for FMVP)

But yea... keep pretending it’s only a 4 game sample size !!

Fred averaged 17.6 points on 41% FG this season, 55.3% TS. The scoring average was 53rd best in the league and the TS was below league average. I watched plenty of games and saw him get to the rim "at will" and get blocked half the time. Am I saying he's below average? Of course not. He's a great shooter and distributor that can make timely baskets and plays amazing defense. But it's clear he is not some amazing scorer that you can just dump the ball to make a play against a good set defence.

But yeah I'm the casual lol. Keep overrating our players and then overreacting in game threads when they don't live up to your unrealistic expectations

I guess if you just throw out nonsense hyperbole like “gets blocked half the time” it makes your argument sound really strong ... but obviously that’s just idiotic and anyone that watches knows that you’re simply spouting lies to strengthen your point !! You threw out some cute stats that don’t prove anything ! We were talking about clutch plays .. EOC shot makers ... so I’m not sure how his reg season ppg is relevant or any of those stats !! Freddy is clutch AF as he’s shown in the playoffs time n time again ... I also noticed that you completely avoided the part about last years PO performance .. ( finals ) and getting a vote for FMVP on the greatest stage ( he also HIT the “go ahead 3” that GSW never recovered from to win the Ship... but yea... I guess he gets “blocked half the time “

He brings the intangibles and leadership qualities that you want down the clutch. Similar to what Lowry brought in his career. The indictment and criticism of Fred being a "max vs non-max player" is pretty funny. You evaluate him now but try to project some sort of expected value by giving him a max. He is in the 2016 draft class. Among his peers (I used players drafted in 2015 or after), here is the list of guards putting up at least 17pts, 6assists with a TS% of at least 55% and a USG rate of at least 20%:

Doncic
Booker
Young
FVV
Fox
Morant
Russell

When you eliminate the draft year criteria you start to get to usual suspects (Dame, Beal, Steph, Harden, etc)

Amongst guys with 4 years of experience or less, Fred is the best defender by a mile on that list. He takes difficult shots and his mid range and finishing hurts his TS%. Having said that, he has improved every single year and I am confident that he improves the mid range game. It isn't there yet but it's possible.

[nabbs]

Applying to the Raptors...

In terms of overall efficiency, the loss of Kawhi has not caused an obvious problem for the Raptors. Their overall net rating is actually better this year than last year: +5.8 to +6.1. They clearly are capable of playing efficient offense and efficient defense without Kawhi. But in last year's playoffs, Kawhi was the end-of-clock solution.

So what's the solution without him? Can you have a good answer to this that isn't a "superstar"?

• Is it a particular player? Who?
• Can this be done by committee?
• Can the Raptors answer this indirectly, by 1) being efficient everywhere else, and 2) playing fast enough in the half-court to rarely face shot-clocks blowing up on them?

- Vs 0-4 secs on the clock, Raps shooting 50eFG% so far this POs, last yr they shot 39.3 eFG%, so far so good.
- < = 3PT game/1 min left in game, Raps shot 1/1 this POs, last yr 6/22, so far so good.

Cant tell much from these tiny samples, but added context.

You can have an offense by committee, its just more complex than dumping the ball and clearing out. If were talking EOC/EOG scenarios, its probably going to be Siakam/FVV/Lowry initiating, with alot of screens and drives to create advantageous mismatches. The thing is, we play quite fast (22nd in NBA in Time per possession), and evidenced with our #1 volume (in both RS/POs) transition offense. It buoys our offense big time.

What concerns me about the Cs, is they are great at getting back and denying transition both volume/DPPP. If this series is going to be a half court slog, im not sure the Raps can win.

We have turned it over alot to them, 2nd highest (to MEM) TOV% against this yr, conversely we dont force enough TOVs on them, so if they holds they are likely to get more opportunity. Its not like BOS shot well vs us (54.6 TS%), they just got ~1/4th of their points per 100 possessions off TOV points. If you dont like that, think of it 103 total points vs our 54 over 4 games in which we were outscored by 28 total points. TOVs are going to be huge in this series IMO.

This is going to be a match up of 2 great PnR D teams too, so thats going to be fun to watch. I think if we can force them to ISO/PostUp, they can be inefficient enough to get a) some stops, and b) some transition off them.

But to your original point, I think you can be successful with an offense by committee depending on who those players are collectively. GSW had 3 clutch killers at one point, they didnt need a hierarchy to be successful.

Yeah i think this could be the potential difference in this series is that the Celtics have better ISO players (although not having Hayward helps).

I know the actual numbers are notriously bad for this but looking at the NBA.com data, this passes the eye test as well

Celtics ISO (reg season)

Tatum 1.00PPP
Kemba 1.04 PPP
Brown 0.82 PPP
Hayward 1.15PPP (him being out will be huge for this series IMO)


Raptors
Siakam 0.88PPP
Fred 0.81 PPP
Kyle 0.87 PPP
Norm 1.11PPP (very low amount of possessions)

I think isolation matters a lot more in the clutch and the thinking up to this point has been those are the common situations you find yourself in playoff scenarios and that's where things play out for champions. But how many clutch/iso possessions are there in one playoff series? Is it a sizeable sample size? I am not sure and i'd love to know the answer. We have a chance to prove that you don't necessarily need an elite isolation scorer if you have an elite defense and enough net positive shot makers. I am fascinated to see how this experiment plays out

[HeadtopChunes]

- Vs 0-4 secs on the clock, Raps shooting 50eFG% so far this POs, last yr they shot 39.3 eFG%, so far so good.
- < = 3PT game/1 min left in game, Raps shot 1/1 this POs, last yr 6/22, so far so good.

Cant tell much from these tiny samples, but added context.

You can have an offense by committee, its just more complex than dumping the ball and clearing out. If were talking EOC/EOG scenarios, its probably going to be Siakam/FVV/Lowry initiating, with alot of screens and drives to create advantageous mismatches. The thing is, we play quite fast (22nd in NBA in Time per possession), and evidenced with our #1 volume (in both RS/POs) transition offense. It buoys our offense big time.

What concerns me about the Cs, is they are great at getting back and denying transition both volume/DPPP. If this series is going to be a half court slog, im not sure the Raps can win.

We have turned it over alot to them, 2nd highest (to MEM) TOV% against this yr, conversely we dont force enough TOVs on them, so if they holds they are likely to get more opportunity. Its not like BOS shot well vs us (54.6 TS%), they just got ~1/4th of their points per 100 possessions off TOV points. If you dont like that, think of it 103 total points vs our 54 over 4 games in which we were outscored by 28 total points. TOVs are going to be huge in this series IMO.

This is going to be a match up of 2 great PnR D teams too, so thats going to be fun to watch. I think if we can force them to ISO/PostUp, they can be inefficient enough to get a) some stops, and b) some transition off them.

But to your original point, I think you can be successful with an offense by committee depending on who those players are collectively. GSW had 3 clutch killers at one point, they didnt need a hierarchy to be successful.

Yeah i think this could be the potential difference in this series is that the Celtics have better ISO players (although not having Hayward helps).

I know the actual numbers are notriously bad for this but looking at the NBA.com data, this passes the eye test as well

Celtics ISO (reg season)

Tatum 1.00PPP
Kemba 1.04 PPP
Brown 0.82 PPP
Hayward 1.15PPP (him being out will be huge for this series IMO)


Raptors
Siakam 0.88PPP
Fred 0.81 PPP
Kyle 0.87 PPP
Norm 1.11PPP (very low amount of possessions)

I think isolation matters a lot more in the clutch and the thinking up to this point has been those are the common situations you find yourself in playoff scenarios and that's where things play out for champions. But how many clutch/iso possessions are there in one playoff series? Is it a sizeable sample size? I am not sure and i'd love to know the answer. We have a chance to prove that you don't necessarily need an elite isolation scorer if you have an elite defense and enough net positive shot makers. I am fascinated to see how this experiment plays out

What worries me is the Celtics have the personnel to just switch on most of our actions, which does end up forcing a good deal of ISO Ball.

We can do the same to them but like i said their players are just better at it.

[everdiso]

Applying to the Raptors...

In terms of overall efficiency, the loss of Kawhi has not caused an obvious problem for the Raptors. Their overall net rating is actually better this year than last year: +5.8 to +6.1. They clearly are capable of playing efficient offense and efficient defense without Kawhi. But in last year's playoffs, Kawhi was the end-of-clock solution.

So what's the solution without him? Can you have a good answer to this that isn't a "superstar"?

• Is it a particular player? Who?
• Can this be done by committee?
• Can the Raptors answer this indirectly, by 1) being efficient everywhere else, and 2) playing fast enough in the half-court to rarely face shot-clocks blowing up on them?

- Vs 0-4 secs on the clock, Raps shooting 50eFG% so far this POs, last yr they shot 39.3 eFG%, so far so good.
- < = 3PT game/1 min left in game, Raps shot 1/1 this POs, last yr 6/22, so far so good.

Cant tell much from these tiny samples, but added context.

You can have an offense by committee, its just more complex than dumping the ball and clearing out. If were talking EOC/EOG scenarios, its probably going to be Siakam/FVV/Lowry initiating, with alot of screens and drives to create advantageous mismatches. The thing is, we play quite fast (22nd in NBA in Time per possession), and evidenced with our #1 volume (in both RS/POs) transition offense. It buoys our offense big time.

What concerns me about the Cs, is they are great at getting back and denying transition both volume/DPPP. If this series is going to be a half court slog, im not sure the Raps can win.

We have turned it over alot to them, 2nd highest (to MEM) TOV% against this yr, conversely we dont force enough TOVs on them, so if they holds they are likely to get more opportunity. Its not like BOS shot well vs us (54.6 TS%), they just got ~1/4th of their points per 100 possessions off TOV points. If you dont like that, think of it 103 total points vs our 54 over 4 games in which we were outscored by 28 total points. TOVs are going to be huge in this series IMO.

This is going to be a match up of 2 great PnR D teams too, so thats going to be fun to watch. I think if we can force them to ISO/PostUp, they can be inefficient enough to get a) some stops, and b) some transition off them.

But to your original point, I think you can be successful with an offense by committee depending on who those players are collectively. GSW had 3 clutch killers at one point, they didnt need a hierarchy to be successful.

Yeah i think this could be the potential difference in this series is that the Celtics have better ISO players (although not having Hayward helps).

I know the actual numbers are notriously bad for this but looking at the NBA.com data, this passes the eye test as well

Celtics ISO (reg season)

Tatum 1.00PPP
Kemba 1.04 PPP
Brown 0.82 PPP
Hayward 1.15PPP (him being out will be huge for this series IMO)


Raptors
Siakam 0.88PPP
Fred 0.81 PPP
Kyle 0.87 PPP
Norm 1.11PPP (very low amount of possessions)

This is more interesting imo - and a truer indication of what people are worried about when it comes to the raps' offense.

I also like that it shows Brown's weakness in this area, contrary to popular opinion.

I find it's useful to use the Percentile numbers to get a better idea of what those numbers actually mean.....

Tatum: 15.8freq%, 75.7th %ile
Brown: 7.4freq%, 42.9th %ile
Kemba: 6.7freq%, 83.8th %ile
Hayward: 6.3freq%, 94.3rd %ile
Smart: 6.2freq%, 40.9th %ile
Wanamaker: 3.2freq%, 4.5th %ile

Siakam: 17.6freq%, 56.7th %ile
VanVleet: 7.6freq%, 40.5th %ile
Lowry: 6.1freq%, 53.6th %ile
RHJ: 3.8freq%, 96.0th %ile
Davis: 3.0freq%, 96.8th %ile
Norm: 2.6freq%, 90.3rd %ile
Anunoby: 2.7freq%, 9.3rd %ile

Altogether our main-3 isolation guys are "average", not "bad", while our depth options are excellent.

Boston’s main isolation guys are "good", not "great", and without hayward they have no depth in that department.


And note that the Raps are above average as a team in isolation:

#5 BOS 0.96ppp, 86.2nd %ile
#13 TOR 0.90ppp, 58.6th %ile


Which is actually a smaller difference than the gap in the defensive numbers:

Isolation Defense:

#2 TOR 0.81ppp, 96.6th %ile
#12 BOS 0.89ppp, 62.1st %ile


Player by player that looks like:


Anunoby 92.4th %ile
Powell 87.8th %ile
Gasol 85.4th %ile
Ibaka 77.7th %ile
Siakam 69.1st %ile
Lowry 66.6th %ile
VanVleet 45.1st %ile

Jefferson 96.5th %ile
Boucher 44.3rd %ile
McCaw 34.7th %ile
Davis 20.2nd %ile
Thomas 14.2nd %ile



Boston....

Brown 73.6th %ile
Hayward 71.1st %ile
Theis 65.8th %ile
Kemba 57.4th %ile
Wanamaker 54.1st %ile
Tatum 49.0th %ile
Smart 30.7th %ile

RWillliams 95.9th %ile
Ojeleye 54.1st %ile
GWilliams 44.1st %ile
Langford 34.7th %ile
Kanter 7.1st %ile

[Wannabe MEP]

I know the actual numbers are notriously bad for this but looking at the NBA.com data, this passes the eye test as well

Celtics ISO (reg season)

Tatum 1.00PPP
Kemba 1.04 PPP
Brown 0.82 PPP
Hayward 1.15PPP (him being out will be huge for this series IMO)


Raptors
Siakam 0.88PPP
Fred 0.81 PPP
Kyle 0.87 PPP
Norm 1.11PPP (very low amount of possessions)

Could you post the links for these?

[HeadtopChunes]

I know the actual numbers are notriously bad for this but looking at the NBA.com data, this passes the eye test as well

Celtics ISO (reg season)

Tatum 1.00PPP
Kemba 1.04 PPP
Brown 0.82 PPP
Hayward 1.15PPP (him being out will be huge for this series IMO)


Raptors
Siakam 0.88PPP
Fred 0.81 PPP
Kyle 0.87 PPP
Norm 1.11PPP (very low amount of possessions)

Could you post the links for these?

https://go.nba.com/4qxn4

[forrestek]

Go Old-School? Celtics are really fast as a team, this we know. And play good scrambling D as a result.

However, the Raps are really Big. Exploit that! Theis cannot guard either Surge or Mark diving to the post for a jump hook or short jimmy. More than likely resulting in a foul and a high percentage free throw(s).