Hair Canada wrote:Class of 2021 top-25:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=32&t=2035998 Class of 2022 top-25:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=32&t=2038491Beyond the one obvious star (Elijah Fisher), this class doesn’t seem that strong to me at this point. Perhaps it’s just the fact that I’ve last watched most of them when they were 15-year-olds. But except for Fisher, no other player is a locked-in high-major college prospect. There are a couple of interesting potentials and some will surely get there but none seems like a sure thing at this point.
Quebec won the U15 nationals for this class in 2019, but I was not blown away by any of their players and haven’t seen anyone else from that province that moved the needle for me. That doesn’t mean of course that such talents won’t come along later on; in fact, I’m pretty sure they will, just can’t pinpoint them yet. The Alberta prospects in this class actually seemed more interesting to me, with some good size and shooting, though again I couldn’t name among them one who is a surefire high-major college prospect (well, maybe one). And the Ontario contingent also underperformed, despite a couple of talented players.
Again, though, I’m really starting to reach here, when trying to project how kids that I’ve watched as 14- and 15-year-olds will develop physically and mentally. When I watched Josh Primo at that age he seemed completely pedestrian to me and O-Max looked like a complete train wreck. They both ended up as two of the best talents in the 2020 class…
I’ll still give it a shot, though this top-25 ranking is likely to change quite a bit the next time I have an opportunity to watch these kids:
1. Elijah Fisher (16.5yo; 6’7 SF; 6’10 wingspan; 215lbs; Oshawa, ON)
2. Isaac Simon (6’2 PG; 170lbs; Regina, SK)
3. Jimma James (6’5 PG; 160lbs; Windsor, ON)
4. Jaiden Cole (16yo; 6’4 SG; 160lbs; Scarborough, ON)
5. Bubu Benjamin (6’6 SF; 190lbs; Medicine Hat, AB)
6. Anthony Wrzeszcz – (6’4 SG; 175lbs; Mississauga, ON)
7. Adrian Uchidiuno (6’2 SG; 155lbs; 6’10 wingspan; Markham, ON)
8. Cyril Martynov (6’9 combo forward; 190lbs; ON)
9. Bronson Chambers (6’5 SG; 170lbs; ON)
10. Braeden MacVicar (6’8 combo forward; Port Williams, NS)
11. Jahsemar Olembe (6’4 CG; 175lbs; Kitchener, ON)
12. Markus Pastorcic-Straun (6’3 PG; Toronto, ON)
13. Justin Chase (6’6 SG; Toronto, ON)
14. Thomas Ndong (6’8 PF; Terrebonne, QC)
15. Matai Baptiste (6’8 PF; ON)
16. Jaxon Koroll (6’10 C; Chestermere, AB)
17. Marquese Josephs 6’2 PG; Mississauga, ON
18. Freud-Ansley St. Felix (6’2 SG, QC)
19. Preston Gayle (6’5 SG; ON)
20. Isaiah Panom (6’6 SF; Edmonton, AB)
21. Jahari Williamson (6’1 CG; ON)
21. Dylan Grant (6’7 SF; Mississauga, ON)
22. Freddy Kapinga (6’2 CG; Calgary, AB)
23. Ashton Brown (6’6 SF; Brampton, ON)
24. Dawson Matsell (6’5 SG; Hamilton, ON)
25. Yashar Greaves-Saadat (6’4 SG; Windsor, ON)
I’ll do 30 again:
26. Xavier Spencer (6’2 SG; 215lbs; Calgary, AB)
27. Keenan Emmanuel (6’0 CG; Mississauga, ON)
28. Nathan Charles (6’4 SG; Ottawa, ON)
29. Kailon Nicholls (6’0 PG; Toronto, ON)
30. Max Voorpool (5’11 PG; Pickering, ON)1. Elijah Fisher (16.5yo; 6’7 SF; 6’10 wingspan; 215lbs; Oshawa, ON). Has there ever been a more hyped 16-year-old in the history of Canadian basketball? Maybe Andrew Wiggins, though social media was not as pervasive 10 years ago. When I wrote about Fisher here 3 years ago, some users told me that it’s way too early. Since then, numerous articles in mainstream newspapers and documentaries in mainstream TV channels have covered just about every aspect of his story, though most offered a fairly shallow picture of who he actually is as a player. Most anoint him as the next big thing out of Canada and a future NBA superstar. Some say that he’s better than Wiggins and Barrett were at his age.
So how founded is this hype?
Playing the SG/SF positions, Fisher’s physical profile is every scout’s dream. An excellent and explosive athlete, who’s also long, with big steps and very good speed. He’s also very strong and tremendous body control in the air. He’s a real freight train in the open court and excels in transition, attacking the basket relentlessly and finishing well with either hand.
Fisher has many similarities to RJ Barrett when he was his age. He has that dog mentality and desire to relentlessly attack the basket, together with the mental toughness to seek contact and the physical strength to finish well with this contact. In fact, he’s actually significantly stronger than Barret was at this age. He wants the ball in his hands and doesn’t shy away from the responsibility. He’s always on attack mode and seems to want it more than others. Also similar to Barrett, when Fisher chooses to look up, he actually has pretty good vision and passing skills. He can split the defense with one-handed passes and even make occasional whole-court passes. He’s nowhere near the level of players like LeBron or Ben Simmons, but he certainly has the vision and skill to develop into a decent passer with the years.
Unfortunately, Fisher also shares some of Barrett’s main weaknesses, weaknesses that are now exposed as Barrett is playing against tougher completion. Fisher is very right-hand dominant, similar to how Barrett is largely limited to his left. He prefers to go to his right at any opportunity and finish with his right hand even when it makes little sense. Related to that, he can often force the issue, get tunnel-vision, and charge into a wall. As I said, he’s even stronger than Barrett was at his age, so it usually works out for him against weaker defenders. But he doesn’t have the same degree of wiggle and shiftiness that Barrett has, so he’ll have to develop other moves to succeed in the next level. Also like Barrett, his handle is not bad but can be quite shaky at times, as his dribble tends to be too high and given the fact that he's so right-hand dominant.
Finally, his shooting touch also looks more similar to that of Barrett than I would like. Doesn’t have the most natural shooting form from behind the arc and while he can certainly make it, he also has many bad misses that suggest this doesn’t come very naturally to him. He’s okay from the line (around 70% I think), but clearly shooting is not his strong suit and I doubt it ever will be. He also hasn’t shown much of a mid-range shooting stroke so far and rarely uses floaters or short-stops, largely limiting his scoring threat to finishes at the rim. On the defensive end of the floor, he has great potential, with his athleticism, strength, and mobility. At this point, his effort level comes and goes and he does quite a bit of ball-watching, but it’s quite rare for players this age to also be great defenders, and given his tools, the projection is certainly positive.
Okay, where does all of this leave us?
Like Wiggins and Barrett before him, Fisher has become the new poster child for the future of Canadian basketball, for better or worse. I think it’s fair to say that while both Wiggins and Barrett clearly became legit NBA players, they have both disappointed somewhat given the lofty expectations. Both are mainly volume scorers and neither projects to be an NBA all-star at this point, though it’s a bit early to say this with any confidence about Barrett.
So is Fisher headed to be the next disappointment? With such impossible expectations (to be an NBA superstar), it’s actually the most likely outcome. While I have almost no doubt that he will get to the NBA and probably also be a starter at some point, like with Barrett, there are some significant warning signs there that he might have a hard time getting to the highest levels. He’s at an age where much is still correctable and the range of possibilities is certainly large. His physical profile is really unique and by all accounts, he’s a good kid, who works hard and really wants to get better.
But I do have some question marks about his handlers, the advice he’s getting, and the preoccupation with his ranking and image at this early age. I’m also not crazy about the choice to stay in Canada rather than join a Montverde-like program and play against the best competition, as well as the avoidance from playing for Team Canada youth teams and be tested against the world’s best. I guess that’s part of the game now and I really can’t fault him for that. But I’m not sure how challenged he is to really improve the weaker aspects of his game when he can just get by and dominate with his natural gifts.
