Official Scottie Barnes Thread - Part 6

[Potential]

I have a feeling he will be top 20 in MVP voting next season. Big time breakout year ahead.

[HiJiNX]

Will be surprised if he doesn't firmly establish himself as a top 15 player this season and clearly ahead of everyone else in his draft class. Cade and Jalen are mediocre, Franz is good but has a limited ceiling, Mobley is really just Tyson Chandler 2.0, and Giddey is a traffic cone on defense. Scottie likely finishes top 10 in MVP voting this season.

Damn I thought I was the biggest Scottie guy on this board haha. Apparently not.

I believe Barnes will be the best of his draft class but don’t see that until year 4 minimum. I think this year is more of a runway year and season 4 will be where he truly takes off.

Also, Cade flirts with the all star team this season if Detroit is half decent and probably ends up being the second best player in this class. Jalen Green I think will take a leap (I was actually really high on him going into the draft as he has 30ppg potential one day—but the jury is still out on whether he will impact winning). Giddey gonna be a really nice starter most of his career and might make a few all star teams. I agree with you about Franz and expect him to make the all star team with Banchero as soon as Orlando is good. Mobley…I just wish he cared about being dominant offensively. He has insane tools but doesn’t seem concerned with being the guy.

Barnes in his prime, if all goes well, will be in the MVP conversation once or twice in his career. I expect seven all star games. Future HOFer. That is my prediction and I stand by it.

[Boogie!]

It took Demar until year 5 to reach 20+ points and an All-star appearance. I think we’ll see something similar with Scottie. Not expecting him to win MIP next season or anything.

And demar has never had the natural feel for the game that Scottie has. Demar developed into more of a slasher/mid range shooter, iso scorer type. For the longest time people were talking about passing more in Casey's system. Scottie is the opposite. He's not really a go go scorer type, but has rhe natural ability and instincts to make everyone better. If Scottie ever develops into a 20 ppg guy, with thecrest of his akillset, he'll be much more impactful than derozan.

[YogurtProducer]

Will be surprised if he doesn't firmly establish himself as a top 15 player this season and clearly ahead of everyone else in his draft class. Cade and Jalen are mediocre, Franz is good but has a limited ceiling, Mobley is really just Tyson Chandler 2.0, and Giddey is a traffic cone on defense. Scottie likely finishes top 10 in MVP voting this season.

Reading things like this makes a lot of other things on this board make a ton more sense.

[PhilBlackson]

It's funny reading people's different takes on Scottie's potential & of course to each his own, it's impossible right now to tell just how great (or not) Scottie will become but Year 3 is usually a really good indicator (ie/ Ja, Tatum both took HUGE jumps then) but I'd say by the time that rookie contract is up....it NEEDS to be apparent you're "that" guy, right now I can't tell but if you're gonna be "it" which leads to the first quote....

It took Demar until year 5 to reach 20+ points and an All-star appearance. I think we’ll see something similar with Scottie. Not expecting him to win MIP next season or anything.

Look I get it, if Scottie even becomes the level of player DeMar was, technically that's a success which I'm not saying can be debated BUT not only are my hopes for him greater -- he's just a flat out WAY better TALENT than DeMar was at the same age/stage and it's because of that the hopes for him are that much greater. DeMar wasn't this in his first couple of years (obv especially not as rookies), Scottie's feel & understanding of the game is LIGHT YEARS ahead of what a young DeRozan's was, who was basically just working on being anything other than a lob threat & shooting from anywhere further than 5-7 feet from the basket with no even signs of being able to defend and sure as hell not as passer, especially a potentially special one as Scottie MAY be if he develops right.

Scottie has the talent & POTENTIAL to be a top 10 player in the league (if he had some Kobe/MJ like committment, I'd legit say he could be top 3-5 if he hit the absolute limits of his possibilities) --- now I'd say I don't see Scottie becoming a top 5 player long term, I can see top 10 which is something DeMar never was/will be. That's NOT my prediction of what he'll become, right now I flat out can not tell, this year will be VERY telling. If he takes just a minor improvement, then I think he would max out as a sort of a perinneal all-star type but not true superstar. I can't think of a perfect comparison but I'd say that it would be a guy that hovers as top 11-17 type of guy, a cusp player -- really well recognized but not THAT guy.

Now if he comes out looking like a monster in the making like Ja & Tatum did by their 3rd years...then I can talk a bit more to this next post which I can't tell if it's being sarcastically hyperbolic or Reeko really believes in Scottie like this lol but I don't mind

Will be surprised if he doesn't firmly establish himself as a top 15 player this season and clearly ahead of everyone else in his draft class. Cade and Jalen are mediocre, Franz is good but has a limited ceiling, Mobley is really just Tyson Chandler 2.0, and Giddey is a traffic cone on defense. Scottie likely finishes top 10 in MVP voting this season.

I can't tell if you're being serious but if you are my God are you ever optimistic! lol If he does what you're saying then Scottie will have MVP potential at some point which I'm not ruling out but I need to SEE at least some serious flashes of it THIS year. For me, he MUST average 20pts or more, if I'm gonna take it seriously that he can be a true face of the franchise type guy because that's what they do (before anyone says Giannis did in Year 4, Giannis was 22 in Year 4, Scottie will be 22 this year). So if Scottie is THAT guy, it really SHOULD show by the end of this year imo. Anything less than my hope really dies down & if it's not painfully obvious by end of Year 4, like I said by the end of the rookie contract -- then Scottie wouldn't be THAT dude and my expectations would DRASTICALLY dampen, so for the OP, I don't want to hear about DeMar doing so in Year 5, that's not the hope for Scottie, Scottie's potential is so much greater.

I'll speak to your prediction of "firmly being a top 15 player & clearly ahead of his draft class", that's still SUPER ambitious to me (and a bit fairly discrediting Mobley imo, and to some lesser extent Cade & Jalen). Even if Scottie makes THE jump to showing potential as a future top 10 player, I don't think his play this year would catapult him top 15 that's not an easy group to jump in (Jokic, Giannis, Luka, Steph, Embiid, Tatum, KD, LeBron, SGA, Lillard, Booker, Ja, Davis, Mitchell, Butler, Edwards, Murray - Zion or Kawhi if healthy lol) that's just under 20 guys that would all be VERY hard to leap frog and we're not even considering how Paolo should likely get the nod over Scottie for his rookie season & then you have Wemby coming up, that's TOUGH lol

So yeah for me it's not about establishing being a top 15 player but he's gotta break that 20+ppg number for me to remain at the heights of my excitement for him. But quickly I think you're underselling Mobley's potential, there's still some better shooting potential & some workable features with his ball handling where he could mold himself into a 20+ppg scorer in time, if you combine it with his elite defence (I think he's quicker on the perimeter than Tyson was), then that can be a player with a HUGE impact on the game. I don't like where Green landed, I don't see him maturing correctly ie/ picking up too many bad habits (ie/ shot selection) & not enough good ones (ie/ defendin) that it's definitely lowered my hopes for him as a player, basically expect him to be a Beal level player now. Cade, I'm undecided on. I still see a bunch of potential with his bball IQ but for me he's going to have to lean into becoming a better passer/facilitator if he's really gonna become a great player. He just doesn't have the physically elite tools to be the next "Luka", Luka may not be a special athlete but he's MUCH physically stronger which allows him to create space that Cade can't. If Cade is going to be great, he's going to have to use his mind more to read the game to make plays for his teammates to open it up for himself, not vice versa and right now I think he's too focused on his scoring and will have to adjust to being a better facilitator, I think he can and if he does I can see him be back in the convo BUT Scottie has the greatest potential of all of them IF he can hit the height of his potential. End of my usual rant lol but I ain't said much on here in a little while.

[TorontoBarneys]

Since Scottie already has prolific passing talent it's safe to say that his spatial awareness is top notch. That's why I believe his transition into a scorer will not be difficult in the long run. For him, it's mostly about getting the technical details down like improving his handles and working on his shot. He won't have a hard time creating for himself and getting to his spots because of that spatial awareness + his superior strength when the skills finally do arrive.

[LBJKB24MJ23]

Scottie will get to 20ppg this year. expecting improved handles, jumper, and wanting it more over the entire course of the game

[gbball]

Scottie can easily average 20/game. The question is does he have the disposition and mental stamina to do it game in and game out, year in and year out?

I think he can do it in situations where he has to, but can he just be the guy that you can rely on for that night in and night out? We'll see.

I don't think monotony agrees with him, but I do think he can mature though being in a bigger leadership role on the team.

[Mikistan]

I have a feeling he will be top 20 in MVP voting next season. Big time breakout year ahead.

Scottie's going down top 3 all time, and he ain't 3rd.

[Tha Cynic]

Will be surprised if he doesn't firmly establish himself as a top 15 player this season and clearly ahead of everyone else in his draft class. Cade and Jalen are mediocre, Franz is good but has a limited ceiling, Mobley is really just Tyson Chandler 2.0, and Giddey is a traffic cone on defense. Scottie likely finishes top 10 in MVP voting this season.

Reading things like this makes a lot of other things on this board make a ton more sense.

I'm pretty sure you've said this multiple times lol.

Also, Reeko is clearly joking. Barnes is going to establish himself as top 10 in the league, not top 15.

[bstein14]

Will be surprised if he doesn't firmly establish himself as a top 15 player this season and clearly ahead of everyone else in his draft class. Cade and Jalen are mediocre, Franz is good but has a limited ceiling, Mobley is really just Tyson Chandler 2.0, and Giddey is a traffic cone on defense. Scottie likely finishes top 10 in MVP voting this season.

If that's the case he'll earn himself a $300 million extension. You'd have to wonder if the Raps would commit nearly a billion to also sign Pascal and OG as well or if they let someone walk and or send out via trade.

[ATLTimekeeper]

This is why I routinely being up context.

Scottie efg% 48.7
Gordon efg% 60.3

You can infer meaning from their usage. Aaron Gordon was the recipient of passes from Jokic, he's a finisher. Scottie was pretty inefficient when it's all said and done but the team is more efficient with his presence. All without being a focal point.

I actually think Aaron Gordon in Denver’s system is a really impactful player. Of course, the ways he and Barnes impact the game is much different, but I wouldn’t necessarily throw out the Gordon number either. He plugs a lot of holes as a connector who can pass, finish, rebound offensively and sometimes knock down a corner three. Perfect fit in Denver. They are noticeably worse on both ends when he’s not on the floor in my opinion.

With respect to Barnes, he has the ball much more often as a creator than Gordon does, so while Gordon is an elite connector, if he was in Barnes’ role here maybe the stats would show something different than what we are seeing. Like ATLTimekeeper said, the hope is that Scottie can produce efficient offence, which I think is more than possible once he gets comfortable leaning on his strengths and develops a decent foul line jumper.

I know there are worries about him developing a jumper, and as far as three point range goes, I agree. Generally speaking, I think being elite from deep is something some guys have and something other guys never will, but as far as a midrange jumper goes, anybody can get quite good there. There’s a long list of guys in Barnes’ size range who developed this in the league. A loooong list. Barnes will get there, which opens up everything for him.

Now, if he ever gets to 36% from deep then watch out.

I'm by no means throwing out Gordon's numbers. I think he's quite impactful as a Nugget. He operates well in the slot and when he brings the ball up you can initiate with 5-out sets.

My distinction between the two is that Gordon's efficiency and on/off metrics come from the nature of his role. It's similar to how Pascal had his most efficient season in 2019. The attention created elsewhere allows the two to feast in open space.

I presume with Barnes that his boost to team efg% is by virtue of his playmaking. Comparatively, at least some of Gordon's on/off impact is due to his personal efficiency.

Simply put, Barnes' efg% is less than team avg while Gordon's efg% is above his team's avg. They both improve their team's accuracy while on court.

The context is evident. The trio of Siakam-Fred-Barnes on the court had a significant offensive output (high ORating). That's why team eFG% is higher for each, even though individually eFG isn't that special for any of them relative to other productive offensive players. But how much can you attribute to each player v. how much is just the rest of the team stunk or the combinations they played in weren't effective?

I used Aaron Gordon, but it takes half a minute to see a bunch of guys I wouldn't be excited about with high numbers (Buddy Hield, Myles Turner, Josh Hart, Alec Burks, Ben Simmons, Josh Richardson, Jerami Grant, Monte Morris etc.). It's really a much larger list than what I gave. Like I said, it's not a bad thing, but it doesn't tell us much about the upcoming season. We know he's a talented passer, but we don't know if increasing his role will be good for the team. Pick any of those guys and think of them as a top 3 scoring option on a team.

[ArthurVandelay]

Will be surprised if he doesn't firmly establish himself as a top 15 player this season and clearly ahead of everyone else in his draft class. Cade and Jalen are mediocre, Franz is good but has a limited ceiling, Mobley is really just Tyson Chandler 2.0, and Giddey is a traffic cone on defense. Scottie likely finishes top 10 in MVP voting this season.

Man...I thought I was high and optimistic on Scottie.

That is high, high hopes but I sure hope you're right.

[Tha Cynic]

Here was Reeko's actual prediction for Barnes since I was thinking something close to this (from the Barnes stats line prediction thread).

I'm going to go with a stat line of 19/7/6.

[DreamTeam09]

https://youtu.be/4dvjBIgjTIw?si=49u7rZnf38MkgA-B

Ino this is from 2yes ago, but I expect us to be faster this year, a lot more pitch ahead passes, his size makes the lob threat a lot more viable, a lot more cross-court weakside 3 will be available to him. Coming off a pick as the lead ball handler he'll have that short midrange or the push shot floater that he's nice with.

Schroeder will be the change of pace, dissecting the defense type

[PhilBlackson]

Scottie MUST average 20+ppg next season (end of rookie contract is the absolute limit tbh) if I'm going to have any faith that he'll be a future superstar in this league.

Even if I try to allow some minor grace for it to be next season (at the LATEST) for him to do so, I still won't feel that optimistic about being a future MVP type of player if he can't do so this year. For the vast majority of true superstar players, it's painfully obvious they are going to be on another level by the time their rookie contract is through but generally speaking it's their 3rd year that they start announcing their arrival. Given how public Darko has been about this being Scottie's team, how they're going to look to run much of the offence through him & the previously 2nd highest scorer on the team is now outta the way (FVV) - there's simply no excuse not to make a SIGNIFICANT jump, unless you ain't "him".

Scottie is going to have to START showing he is "him" THIS season -- adding just 2-3+ ppg for me will not pass for that.

[ConSarnit]

It's not a bad thing, but I don't think it contains much to get excited about. Cleaning the glass has Aaron Gordon at 5.6.

This is why I routinely being up context.

Scottie efg% 48.7
Gordon efg% 60.3

You can infer meaning from their usage. Aaron Gordon was the recipient of passes from Jokic, he's a finisher. Scottie was pretty inefficient when it's all said and done but the team is more efficient with his presence. All without being a focal point.

I actually think Aaron Gordon in Denver’s system is a really impactful player. Of course, the ways he and Barnes impact the game is much different, but I wouldn’t necessarily throw out the Gordon number either. He plugs a lot of holes as a connector who can pass, finish, rebound offensively and sometimes knock down a corner three. Perfect fit in Denver. They are noticeably worse on both ends when he’s not on the floor in my opinion.

With respect to Barnes, he has the ball much more often as a creator than Gordon does, so while Gordon is an elite connector, if he was in Barnes’ role here maybe the stats would show something different than what we are seeing. Like ATLTimekeeper said, the hope is that Scottie can produce efficient offence, which I think is more than possible once he gets comfortable leaning on his strengths and develops a decent foul line jumper.

I know there are worries about him developing a jumper, and as far as three point range goes, I agree. Generally speaking, I think being elite from deep is something some guys have and something other guys never will, but as far as a midrange jumper goes, anybody can get quite good there. There’s a long list of guys in Barnes’ size range who developed this in the league. A loooong list. Barnes will get there, which opens up everything for him.

Now, if he ever gets to 36% from deep then watch out.

What are you defining as "quite good" from midrange? I'd wager that the vast majority of the guys who made the leap to good midrange shooters started out their careers as better shooters than Barnes. To make midrange a steady part of your shot diet you need to be shooting high 40's and there are maybe 20 guys in the league who can do that on volume. High volume mid-range efficiency might be the rarest skill in the league. Not saying Barnes can't make a jump from midrange but it will have to be in conjunction with another improvement (3pt shooting or foul drawing) or else it isn't worth that much.

[Chalky_White]

Will be surprised if he doesn't firmly establish himself as a top 15 player this season and clearly ahead of everyone else in his draft class. Cade and Jalen are mediocre, Franz is good but has a limited ceiling, Mobley is really just Tyson Chandler 2.0, and Giddey is a traffic cone on defense. Scottie likely finishes top 10 in MVP voting this season.

Is this assuming a Pascal trade? cause I see Scottie reaching his potential as a playmaking/scoring power forward forward...tough to reach top 15-20 with a still better Pascal still on the team handling those duties.

[OakleyDokely]

Will be surprised if he doesn't firmly establish himself as a top 15 player this season and clearly ahead of everyone else in his draft class. Cade and Jalen are mediocre, Franz is good but has a limited ceiling, Mobley is really just Tyson Chandler 2.0, and Giddey is a traffic cone on defense. Scottie likely finishes top 10 in MVP voting this season.

[Reeko]

Will be surprised if he doesn't firmly establish himself as a top 15 player this season and clearly ahead of everyone else in his draft class. Cade and Jalen are mediocre, Franz is good but has a limited ceiling, Mobley is really just Tyson Chandler 2.0, and Giddey is a traffic cone on defense. Scottie likely finishes top 10 in MVP voting this season.

Can't believe they're cancelling this show. I have thoroughly enjoyed both seasons, especially the second one.