CPT wrote:He's exceeded expectations, but you also can't just handwave away the concept of efficiency.
Unless I'm misunderstanding that "30 players to put up 20/5/5" stat, it really doesn't say as much as you might hope. Aside from the whole idea that that is some meaningful threshold of counting stats (it isn't), that indicates that most NBA teams will produce a 20/5/5 player, almost by default. That role is available on pretty much every team, and if you don't care about efficiency or defense, RJ can fill it.
He can be the 1st/2nd option on a terrible team. Can he be the 3rd/4th option on a good one? That's where I have my doubts. The idea of him as a 6th man is interesting, but it would actually have to happen successfully to give him credit for it.
As for his contract, it's not some albatross, but it certainly isn't good. 66th highest paid player in the league, but I wouldn't put him particularly close to 66th best. Again, the simplest of analysis (30 teams) would suggest that he'd be the 3rd best player on most teams, and I think that's clearly not true. How many playoff teams would he start on?
If anything, despite the negativity, he's probably still overrated. He has a kind of star profile as a high draft pick, key player for Team Canada, and a "20/5/5" guy, but he's just... not that good? It doesn't mean he's terrible, and he's probably closer to being an All-Star than being out of the league, but realistically he's not close to either. He's just a dude that's kind of okay and might top out at a DeRozan/Lavine level of impact. These guys don't suck, I just don't think they have a place on good teams.
Not trying to hand-wave away the inefficiency, just highlight that it's dramatically improved since getting to Toronto. Efficiency pretty role-dependent, and tends to improve as players age. We've already seen his efficiency increase in this system, and I think there's fair reason to believe it'll continue to get better while BI takes on a huge chunk of the scoring load.
As for the 20/5/5 stat, it's 30 players in total over the last five seasons, not 30 players per season. Didn't chart exactly how many, but it seemed to average 10 or 11 guys per season. It's a super simple metric, but I think it's solid as a quick way to highlight a baseline of scoring ability, size/rebounding, and playmaking skills.
It takes a baseline of different skills to hit 20/5/5 consistently over the course of a season, and 28 out of 30 players reaching that metric being at least All-Star level players makes me more positive about RJ's outlook rather than seeing it as a flaw in the usefulness of the stat.
I also question if he can be a 3rd/4th option on good team, and I think that's what I'm looking forward to seeing this season. If he shows that he can continue to improve his defence and increase either his 3PT/FTA percentage (preferably both), then he's a pretty comfortable fit in the starting line-up and is probably poised to outplay his contract.