Draft Thread Part 4

[Psubs]

Davion would be nice in the late lotto, but he would be a bad reach at #7. He is quick, but his other athletic tools are nothing special. He doesn't get to the line nor does he actually hit his FTs when he gets there. The shooting improvement is encouraging, but for an undersized guard who isn't blessed with elite athleticism you need everything in your bag...pull up jumper, off the dribble jumper, floaters and elite finishing around the rim. He has aspects of some of that, but he is still very much a work in progress there. Besides, it isn't like he is Morant/Fox quick, he is going to face a lot of adjustment time when he goes up against NBA athletes and size.

Look back to last years draft...

Compared to Haliburton, Kira Lewis Jr, Cole Anthony, Maxey and RJ Hampton how much better of a prospect is he really? Yeah, he projects better defensively than those guys, but he is at least 2 years older than all of these guys except Haliburton (only 1 year older). PG is stacked in the league right now and to use the #7th pick on a guy whose upside is limited is bad management.

I think the best destinations for Mitchell are #14 to Golden State , Curry able to play SG and not have to guard the quickest player on the opposition. If not, then #15 to Washington because they need defense and should be getting Avdija and Thomas Bryant back so draft a small.

[B-Ball Freak]

I'd be cool with Kai Jones at 7 too, I'd be cool with any of these four at pick number 7 Keon Johnson, Kai Jones, Moody, Barnes.

[OakleyDokely]

I just dont see enough...defensive versatility (he will only be able to guard guards at his size/wingspan) to take him top 7.

All the available evidence suggests this is wrong. Baylor routinely had Mitchell guard the biggest / most imposing wing threat, including guys like Cade and Kispert, and hardly any of them had any sustained success against him. Mostly Mitchell punked them. He also frequently switched onto bigger players in the post. He was great defending guards too but there's a fairly large sample which would suggest he'll be able to punch up defensively at the next level.

That's nice and all, but there are plenty of small, defensive oriented guards who can handle the ball available and you don't have to take them with top picks.

His ability to score and shoot it will largely determine his NBA value.

I don't believe there are plenty of guards on Mitchell's level, and reducing his impact to his ability to score the ball at an elite level is a mistake imo. I'm not locked in on taking him or anything just frequently surprised at the amount of hard push back on his ceiling as an all around player given how compelling the eye test is.

Mitchell may be great defensively but there's a reason why the last guard to win DPOY was in 1996. Guards don't have the defensive impact of wings/bigs.

OG or Simmons are always going to be more valuable defensively than guys like Mitchell because they can defend almost every spot on the floor. Mitchell is limited to guarding primarily guards at the NBA level. Can he defend up in a pinch? sure, but that won't be his primary role.

[DG88]

In the previous thread I mentioned Kai Jones, but just wanted to mention him as the best option for Toronto from picks 7-10.

Here is example of the full Kai Jones experience (contests a shot on the perimeter then in transition, catches the ball and attacks with a eurostep to score:

Read on Twitter

Here is locking up Cade with no help:

Read on Twitter

The block and dunk special - noticing how he beats the other team down the floor:

Read on Twitter

Remembering Kai is 6'11 and this fluid with the effort he shows it just feels natural that he will become a star player in the NBA barring injury. Toronto, which develops lanky athletic guys like Siakam and Boucher could make this guy special. This is no Bruno situation where he lacks fluidity and talent.

Now I know the player I'm thinking off for Kai Jones, Willie Cauley-Stein. More so based on how fluidly he moves on the court. Biggest difference to me is the shooting potential.

[Psubs]

I'd be cool with Kai Jones at 7 too, I'd be cool with any of these four at pick number 7 Keon Johnson, Kai Jones, Moody, Barnes.

I was probably the highest on Kai Jones back when I thought the Raptors could be a 5th seed in the East and end up with a pick in the late teens. I haven't seen enough from him in his sophomore season. with increased minutes he blocked less and fouled more. Slight increase in FT%, though a good increase in FG% and 3pt%.

Myles Turner without the blocks at #7 pick?

[PhilBlackson]

Davion would be nice in the late lotto, but he would be a bad reach at #7. He is quick, but his other athletic tools are nothing special. He doesn't get to the line nor does he actually hit his FTs when he gets there. The shooting improvement is encouraging, but for an undersized guard who isn't blessed with elite athleticism you need everything in your bag...pull up jumper, off the dribble jumper, floaters and elite finishing around the rim. He has aspects of some of that, but he is still very much a work in progress there. Besides, it isn't like he is Morant/Fox quick, he is going to face a lot of adjustment time when he goes up against NBA athletes and size.

Look back to last years draft...

Compared to Haliburton, Kira Lewis Jr, Cole Anthony, Maxey and RJ Hampton how much better of a prospect is he really? Yeah, he projects better defensively than those guys, but he is at least 2 years older than all of these guys except Haliburton (only 1 year older). PG is stacked in the league right now and to use the #7th pick on a guy whose upside is limited is bad management.

I think the best destinations for Mitchell are #14 to Golden State , Curry able to play SG and not have to guard the quickest player on the opposition. If not, then #15 to Washington because they need defense and should be getting Avdija and Thomas Bryant back so draft a small.

The actual best destination would be the Lakers.

He could be everything they wanted Avery Bradley to be and then some.

He can be a secondary ballhandler for LeBron, literally just to bring the ball up and spare him some energy while also being a kick out that since he's not good at his pull jumpers but spot ups. Then you have him smother Kyrie in the Finals while Bron handles Harden and AD on KD, KCP on Harris and all of sudden there is a team that could handle BKN defensively....

Thats a great pick for Davion! Not in the top 10 to play back up to Fred and battle with Malachi (making that pick a waste) for the remainder of the minutes when in reality our team needs a go to scorer.

[VanWest82]

Mitchell may be great defensively but there's a reason why the last guard to win DPOY was in 1996. Guards don't have the defensive impact of wings/bigs.

OG or Simmons are always going to be more valuable defensively than guys like Mitchell because they can defend almost every spot on the floor. Mitchell is limited to guarding primarily guards at the NBA level. Can he defend up in a pinch? sure, but that won't be his primary role.

According to 538 Fred and OG rated the same in DRAPTOR (+2.3) this year and both were well ahead of Siakam (-0.7). Fred more frequently guarded POA than SIakam, got more steals/deflections/blocks, had a better individual DPPP, and we had a better DRTG with him on the floor.

I think saying wing > guard in terms of defensive impact is probably right more often than not but it isn't some universal truth. The fact I can make a credible case that Fred was more important to our defense last year than one of the better defensive forwards in the league says a lot. BTW guards, and especially PGs, are often more important to offense except perhaps at the elite levels because they're frequently more skilled and have more well rounded games, so it cuts both ways.

[Psubs]

Now I know the player I'm thinking off for Kai Jones, Willie Cauley-Stein. More so based on how fluidly he moves on the court. Biggest difference to me is the shooting potential.

Nooooooo!

I just got the comp for Kai Jones, since shot-blocking and rebounding are not strengths!!!

KVH - Keith Van Horn!!! Maybe with better defense.

Kai is obviously 3-4 years behind KVH in terms of development at similar ages. Kai will likely be a PF as a pro.

[ATLTimekeeper]

My issue with Sengun is really about fit. He is primarily a post-up big which is not how Toronto plays. Yes, he has shown a few outside shots, but he is not going to be a stretch PF/C because he won't be able to put the ball on floor to attack a close-out. At least, where is currently, I have a hard time seeing it. Literally no one is operating exclusively out of the post anymore so basically he needs to go to a team open to feeding the post. It is just not how Toronto plays and I cannot see them conforming to him.

Secondly, on defense, he is likely a drop coverage big. His lack of length is an issue on that end. He doesn't look like he would be able to switch either so I am not sure how you really use him. Maybe he will be smart like Bejlica, but even he topped out as only a bench big in all his stops.

Lastly, Sengun cannot speak English. He does all his interviews through a translator. He isn't like Jokic or Doncic who grew up with English as a second or third language. Not sure how it impacts adapting to a new culture, style of play and connecting with teammates, but unless this guy has a big personality like JV, I don't know if he will feel isolated and homesick. I follow Euroleague loosely, and throughout the years Greece has had so many amazing players who never stepped foot in the US because of the language and culture shock. I know Turkey has some good recent history with Korkmaz, Cedi and of course Kanter, but Sengun seems behind in that aspect.

Of all these, only the third seems viable and, again, this seems like a temporary problem at best. Jokic and Doncic aren't good because they speak English, but I'm sure it helped them adapt at the time. That's a development aspect, not a prospect evaluating aspect. If Doncic spoke no English, he would still be the best player in that draft hands down.

As for part 2, you're comparing Bejlica's body-type. If he could be a major engine of an offense, he would get court time. This is sort of the same thing as Kanter. Well, yeah Kanter gets torched on defense, but he's also not a good enough offensive player to make up for it. He's slow-thinking, he doesn't have range, he's a black hole, he can't put the ball on the floor for very long before he's swarmed. If he was as good as Sabonis, he'd play more. So, for Sengun I think you have to project out his offense as a prospect and assume that if he can be a legit hub than his defense will be effectively compensated for.

And as for part 1, I'm skeptical the Raptors would draft for style or avoid post-ups. When OG calls for it in the post, he gets it. Same with Siakam. Even though this year they were on the lower end this year, that was mostly because Baynes/Boucher carried the load at C. The last few seasons they've been middle of the pack. I think Nurse is an engineer that will just work with the tools he's got to play his advantages.

[Dalek]

In the previous thread I mentioned Kai Jones, but just wanted to mention him as the best option for Toronto from picks 7-10.

Here is example of the full Kai Jones experience (contests a shot on the perimeter then in transition, catches the ball and attacks with a eurostep to score:

Read on Twitter

Here is locking up Cade with no help:

Read on Twitter

The block and dunk special - noticing how he beats the other team down the floor:

Read on Twitter

Remembering Kai is 6'11 and this fluid with the effort he shows it just feels natural that he will become a star player in the NBA barring injury. Toronto, which develops lanky athletic guys like Siakam and Boucher could make this guy special. This is no Bruno situation where he lacks fluidity and talent.

Now I know the player I'm thinking off for Kai Jones, Willie Cauley-Stein. More so based on how fluidly he moves on the court. Biggest difference to me is the shooting potential.

That's actually a great example. I always thought WCS moved well on the court, but he just never put it together as a player. I think Jones is smaller and will definitely need to add 10 lbs to play guys like WCS, but the way the league is now you can likely get away with a lighter C as long as they can switch. I don't know if Jones will ever be a post defender, but I'd bet he'd at least be like Khem Birch with some upside to be a much stronger offensive player.

[mtcan]

Now I know the player I'm thinking off for Kai Jones, Willie Cauley-Stein. More so based on how fluidly he moves on the court. Biggest difference to me is the shooting potential.

Nooooooo!

I just got the comp for Kai Jones, since shot-blocking and rebounding are not strengths!!!

KVH - Keith Van Horn!!! Maybe with better defense.

Kai is obviously 3-4 years behind KVH in terms of development at similar ages. Kai will likely be a PF as a pro.

WTF...Keith Van Horne?? No way...because outside shooting was KVH's calling card and it made him unique as a 4. These days...most guys at the 4 can shoot the 3.

Kai Jones is Jaxson Hayes who attempts 3s. He's really not that great a shooter either...but he tries. Otherwise...regarding build, body type and in terms of how raw offensively he is...he's Jaxson Hayes.

That said...I like Jaxson Hayes...and he was taken 8th overall in his draft. HOWEVER...Kai Jones would be a great pickup for depth and we have more needs to address before we draft for depth and role players...so while I like Jones as a potential pick...I wouldn't take him with our only lottery pick.

[Psubs]

Now I know the player I'm thinking off for Kai Jones, Willie Cauley-Stein. More so based on how fluidly he moves on the court. Biggest difference to me is the shooting potential.

Nooooooo!

I just got the comp for Kai Jones, since shot-blocking and rebounding are not strengths!!!

KVH - Keith Van Horn!!! Maybe with better defense.

Kai is obviously 3-4 years behind KVH in terms of development at similar ages. Kai will likely be a PF as a pro.

WTF...Keith Van Horne?? No way...because outside shooting was KVH's calling card and it made him unique as a 4. These days...most guys at the 4 can shoot the 3.

Kai Jones is Jaxon Hayes who attempts 3s. He's really not that great a shooter either...but he tries. Otherwise...regarding build, body type and in terms of how raw offensively he is...he's Jaxon Hayes.

Ya, Jaxson Hayes is a good comp. So why do people want to draft him in the top 10? Is some team going to reach like Jalen Smith at #10? How good would the Suns be had they drafted Haliburton like they should have?

[niQ]

This has felt like the longest May. Give me June 22!

[bballsparkin]

That's fine - no one says you have to like him as a prospect or want us to take him. I'm just taking issue with making faulty comparisons to guys like Beverley and Smart, or claiming VanVleet is Mitchell's absolute top end ceiling when Davion's credentials are just as good and he's way more athletic.

Also, there are good reasons why his raw numbers look somewhat underwhelming in comparison to other guards (e.g. he had to share the ball with two other ball dominant guards, whereas other PGs had it in their hands way more).

I just don't like the fit. Tired of the short backcourt. Yet I trust the FO. Fred with a good first step does not sound so bad. They would be annoying to play against. Two pesky defenders there. I hope the FO likes someone else more. Not because I don't think that Davion could be very good though.

[OAKLEY_2]

Mitchell may be great defensively but there's a reason why the last guard to win DPOY was in 1996. Guards don't have the defensive impact of wings/bigs.

OG or Simmons are always going to be more valuable defensively than guys like Mitchell because they can defend almost every spot on the floor. Mitchell is limited to guarding primarily guards at the NBA level. Can he defend up in a pinch? sure, but that won't be his primary role.

According to 538 Fred and OG rated the same in DRAPTOR (+2.3) this year and both were well ahead of Siakam (-0.7). Fred more frequently guarded POA than SIakam, got more steals/deflections/blocks, had a better individual DPPP, and we had a better DRTG with him on the floor.

I think saying wing > guard in terms of defensive impact is probably right more often than not but it isn't some universal truth. The fact I can make a credible case that Fred was more important to our defense last year than one of the better defensive forwards in the league says a lot. BTW guards, and especially PGs, are often more important to offense except perhaps at the elite levels because they're frequently more skilled and have more well rounded games, so it cuts both ways.

And add this. The Raps sucked until they got Lowry. 6 foot pudgy guard who looking back has had an influence that defies positional generalizations. A great point guard is like a great quarterback. Like a great Shortstop.

[mtcan]

Nooooooo!

I just got the comp for Kai Jones, since shot-blocking and rebounding are not strengths!!!

KVH - Keith Van Horn!!! Maybe with better defense.

Kai is obviously 3-4 years behind KVH in terms of development at similar ages. Kai will likely be a PF as a pro.

WTF...Keith Van Horne?? No way...because outside shooting was KVH's calling card and it made him unique as a 4. These days...most guys at the 4 can shoot the 3.

Kai Jones is Jaxon Hayes who attempts 3s. He's really not that great a shooter either...but he tries. Otherwise...regarding build, body type and in terms of how raw offensively he is...he's Jaxon Hayes.

Ya, Jaxson Hayes is a good comp. So why do people want to draft him in the top 10? Is some team going to reach like Jalen Smith at #10? How good would the Suns be had they drafted Haliburton like they should have?

Jaxson Hayes WAS taken 8th overall in his draft...but the Pelicans had already taken Zion Williamson in that same draft...so they didn't need to aim for another generational talent...and so they could draft someone who fills a need.

We hope that this is the first and last trip to the lottery for a very long time...so I would hope we are trying to find a go-to guy instead of a rotation guy in the long run.

[Dalek]

Of all these, only the third seems viable and, again, this seems like a temporary problem at best. Jokic and Doncic aren't good because they speak English, but I'm sure it helped them adapt at the time. That's a development aspect, not a prospect evaluating aspect. If Doncic spoke no English, he would still be the best player in that draft hands down.

Maybe this generation of players is better prepared for the NBA. The guy I always remember is Vassilis Spanoulis who Houston brought over and after one year he left after for family reasons. I don't know how much the culture adjustment played into it, but Van Gundy barely played Spanoulis as a rookie and probably the combo of being away from home and not understanding what they needed from him led to him leaving. Of course, Spanoulis went on to be a multi-time MVP and one of the best Europeans to not make it in the NBA. Likely this is a non-issue, but I also remember how Bruno struggled with language when he came to Toronto. It has to be a hard adjustment for non-native English speakers.

[vulture]

I'm just not a fan of Kai Jones as he doesn't do anything well imo.
My board is:
Cade
Suggs
Barnes
Mobley
Green
Giddey
Springer
Kaminga

[canada_dry]

Kai Jones is the biggest boom or bust pick in the top 20.

Sent from my SM-G960W using RealGM mobile app

I'd argue that Scottie Barnes has a higher bust potential. Poor shooter and not willing to do the dirty work in the paint. If he doesn't buy into being more of a PF/C he is a bit positionless.

I see the argument but theres things there in barnes personality/competitiveness that lends to at least being a good rotation player on good teams as his floor.

Kai could easily be playing in Europe by the end of his rookie contract.

Or he could be one of the most sought after big role players all contenders want.

Or he could be an all star big.

Very big variance with kai imo

Sent from my SM-G960W using RealGM mobile app

[Dalek]

WTF...Keith Van Horne?? No way...because outside shooting was KVH's calling card and it made him unique as a 4. These days...most guys at the 4 can shoot the 3.

Kai Jones is Jaxon Hayes who attempts 3s. He's really not that great a shooter either...but he tries. Otherwise...regarding build, body type and in terms of how raw offensively he is...he's Jaxon Hayes.

Ya, Jaxson Hayes is a good comp. So why do people want to draft him in the top 10? Is some team going to reach like Jalen Smith at #10? How good would the Suns be had they drafted Haliburton like they should have?

Jaxson Hayes WAS taken 8th overall in his draft...but the Pelicans had already taken Zion Williamson in that same draft...so they didn't need to aim for another generational talent...and so they could draft someone who fills a need.

We hope that this is the first and last trip to the lottery for a very long time...so I would hope we are trying to find a go-to guy instead of a rotation guy in the long run.

Hayes would be a low-bar for Jones, but I can see the energy and hustle in both. Side note: University of Texas always produces great bigs:

LMA
Myles Turner
Tristan Thompson
Jarrett Allen
Jaxson Hayes
Mo Bamba