Why Do We Want To Keep The Pick This Year?

[OAKLEY_2]

Here's the irony about this.

In order for us to be 6th worst in the league next season I think RJ Barrett likely has to go back to his Knicks days in his efficiency and why would you want that?

Also means that Barnes hasn't improved and so is not our franchise cornerstone, and that Quickley hasn't improved and is probably a waste of time as well. Dick hasn't improved and is a career fringe-player.

Would be a complete disaster honestly, and again no idea why anyone would want that so we can roll the dice on another prospect who may or may not even be as good as the guys above anyway.

Give me Buzelis, Topic or Castle on this team into our development program asap. They should be great NBA players and you'd be crazy not to want them on the team.

I think Topic, Castle, Cody Williams are better than when we throw Buzelis in there. I even like Ja Kobe Walter better than Buzelis.

[Indeed]

Unless you believe we are close to the playoffs next year, otherwise, I think we are largely the same next year without some of the winning records from Siakam earlier. And the #6 this year is not better than #10 next year from what I and people who look at the draft in the draft thread.

If the pick this year remains among the top 6 and we get to keep it, how many minutes per game is that rookie likely to play next year and how much will that affect our record next year?

Assuming they play anywhere between 15-25 minutes per game, is our record next year likely to be more or less than 25 wins? 30 wins? 35 wins?

Assuming those minutes aren't given to said top 6 pick and they're given to someone else instead, how many additional wins will that player likely contribute to improve the team's records beyond what it would have been with a more inexperienced rookie?

When you consider the Pacers and Pistons picks and likelihood those players might play as many minutes combined as said top 6 pick, would playing these prospects that much next year improve or reduce the chances we're among the top 6 worst teams again for the 2025 draft and end up having these same discussions about whether the pick will be conveyed or not?

How much would BBQ playing would give us more wins?
I am pretty sure we won't be better than the record with Siakam, but we aren't worse than what we are with BBQ playing regardless of our rookie.

We are unlikely to be bottom 6th next year, and unlikely to be in the playoffs.

Your math is just bad, we are simply better off conveying this year than next year, and for sure next year.

[Ell Curry]

The more I read people describe Sarr as a #1 pick but also probably sort of a slightly better Poeltl/25M type of center, the more I become open to us losing the pick this year.

Definitely think that if we do keep the pick we should be force-feeding him 25 minutes a night and losing games as a result of him, Grady and our general youthfulness. You can always fire Darko if vibes get back and sell Barnes on a new coach and trying to compete the year after.

[Mattatron]

Yeah f**k this years draft.

[ForeverTFC]

Why don't we want to keep all our firsts? I want to convey 2 2nds to SA. That's my dream come true.

There is no way MLSE allows for 3 years of basement dwelling without a playoff push. We will convey a first rounder unless we get hit with something catastrophic and things go really wrong.

Agree. Next year will be Barnes 4th season, IQ's 5th season and RJ's 6th season. They (BBQ) are young but have enough experience to be performing like seasoned veterans capable, we hope, to be playoff bound next year.

If it doesn't convey until 2027 as two 2nd rounders, that means we were bottom 6 in 2024, 2025 & 2026. If we're this bad for 3 straight seasons, it means BBQ core will have failed, Masai likely fired and your "dream come true" will become a nightmare.

The way I see it, we are tanking hard now to try and keep our 2024 pick because we expect BBQ to propel us to the playoffs next season & improve from there. That has to be the goal. Being basement dwellers for 3 seasons is not a viable option for this FO.

In complete agreement, but I would take it a step further and say it's not just the FO or even the ownership, it's the league as a whole. That kind of tanking - if purposeful - just can't be done in this league post Process Sixers; 2 years is all you get.

Our most recent case study is Prestie who got 2 years to tank with a potential number 1 on his team in SGA. Similarly, the Magic were out of the tank after 2 years. The Spurs will also shift direction after the 2nd year of their tank. Even Ainge hasn't bottomed out in Utah. The process Sixers tank job is just not allowed in this league anymore.

Teams that have been perpetually bad and often in the top of the lottery (Detroit, Houston, Charlotte) get there despite their efforts to win and compete. So yeah, if we hold on to our pick for the next 3 years, it means either a massive injury has derailed the team and/or Barnes/IQ/Barrett/Dick were complete let downs. I don't see any world where this is a dream come true, even for the most hardcore tanker out there. And if someone thinks this is the more realistic possibility for this team, they should be advocating a complete tear down now while these guys have value.

[ArthurVandelay]

The more I read people describe Sarr as a #1 pick but also probably sort of a slightly better Poeltl/25M type of center, the more I become open to us losing the pick this year.

Definitely think that if we do keep the pick we should be force-feeding him 25 minutes a night and losing games as a result of him, Grady and our general youthfulness. You can always fire Darko if vibes get back and sell Barnes on a new coach and trying to compete the year after.

Who is describing Sarr as slightly better Poeltl type of C? I don’t think that is a good description at all.

Evan Mobley is a good comparison. Could also see Jaren Jackson Jr if his shot develops or Nic Claxton as a floor of the shot does not develop.

But a slightly more athletic and longer Mobley is the best comparison imo. Sarr is also coming in 1 year younger than Mobley was.

[Pointgod]

The more I read people describe Sarr as a #1 pick but also probably sort of a slightly better Poeltl/25M type of center, the more I become open to us losing the pick this year.

Definitely think that if we do keep the pick we should be force-feeding him 25 minutes a night and losing games as a result of him, Grady and our general youthfulness. You can always fire Darko if vibes get back and sell Barnes on a new coach and trying to compete the year after.

Who is describing Sarr as slightly better Poeltl type of C? I don’t think that is a good description at all.

Evan Mobley is a good comparison. Could also see Jaren Jackson Jr if his shot develops or Nic Claxton as a floor of the shot does not develop.

But a slightly more athletic and longer Mobley is the best comparison imo. Sarr is also coming in 1 year younger than Mobley was.

More athletic Mobley is kind of scary if this Sarr kid has a motor. I think the knock on Mobley has been his aggressiveness.

[DelAbbot]

Agree. Next year will be Barnes 4th season, IQ's 5th season and RJ's 6th season. They (BBQ) are young but have enough experience to be performing like seasoned veterans capable, we hope, to be playoff bound next year.

If it doesn't convey until 2027 as two 2nd rounders, that means we were bottom 6 in 2024, 2025 & 2026. If we're this bad for 3 straight seasons, it means BBQ core will have failed, Masai likely fired and your "dream come true" will become a nightmare.

The way I see it, we are tanking hard now to try and keep our 2024 pick because we expect BBQ to propel us to the playoffs next season & improve from there. That has to be the goal. Being basement dwellers for 3 seasons is not a viable option for this FO.

Are you sure we have enough pieces and expected growth to be more than fighting for the play-in (9th-10th seed) next year? And is this core enough to keep growing to a contender, thus not needing to acquire high-end assets in 2025 draft?

Masai has demonstrated he believes talent can come from anywhere in the draft and can keep growing as long as they are hard-workers. Therefore, he can set the team up to win around 50% and then INCREMENTALLY add to core (from any position in the draft) to propel it into a contender (60% to 70% winning percentage) - instead of the Sam Presti's model of lining up lots of high end prospects / lottery tickets (from a true teardown and couple of years of hard tanking) and then wait for them to grow (because as they pan out, there is diminishing chances of drafting impactful players as your team starts to win).

Given how the draft positioning is inverse to your winning %, I don't believe in Masai's model working. Even when he gets lucky like OG / PS, he will find there is a ceiling to their growth, that ultimately caps the team's ceiling. And Masai still doing this after the failure of PS+OG+FVV core, by "retooling" with SB+RJ+IQ, instead of truly "rebuilding" .

At the end of the day, the difference in Masai and Presti's philosophy comes down to probability - I think the probability of Masai's model succeeding is much lower than Presti's model. Before someone says "Masai has won it before", I will preemptively point out that Masai's 2019 championship was using Presti's model, where BC was overseeing the years of losing and lottery prospect acquisition left for Masai.

[ArthurVandelay]

The more I read people describe Sarr as a #1 pick but also probably sort of a slightly better Poeltl/25M type of center, the more I become open to us losing the pick this year.

Definitely think that if we do keep the pick we should be force-feeding him 25 minutes a night and losing games as a result of him, Grady and our general youthfulness. You can always fire Darko if vibes get back and sell Barnes on a new coach and trying to compete the year after.

Who is describing Sarr as slightly better Poeltl type of C? I don’t think that is a good description at all.

Evan Mobley is a good comparison. Could also see Jaren Jackson Jr if his shot develops or Nic Claxton as a floor of the shot does not develop.

But a slightly more athletic and longer Mobley is the best comparison imo. Sarr is also coming in 1 year younger than Mobley was.

More athletic Mobley is kind of scary if this Sarr kid has a motor. I think the knock on Mobley has been his aggressiveness.

I think he’s more aggressive than Mobley, think he will have a better shot. But I think Mobley is a better passer and might be a smarter player. But I’m basing this off Movley’s college career when he was 19 vs Sarr first year pro in Australia at 18.

I think if Sarr was at a top US college he’d be no question #1 and very hyped

[dohboy_24]

How much would BBQ playing would give us more wins?
I am pretty sure we won't be better than the record with Siakam, but we aren't worse than what we are with BBQ playing regardless of our rookie.

We are unlikely to be bottom 6th next year, and unlikely to be in the playoffs.

Your math is just bad, we are simply better off conveying this year than next year, and for sure next year.

Yes, we are unlikely to make the playoffs as one of the top 6 teams in the East and we are unlikely to have one of the 6 worst records next year.

Within those extremes, we can either make the play-in tournament and end up with a draft pick in the #15 to #18 range or fail to make the play-in tournament and end up in the bottom half of the lottery with a draft pick in the #7 to #14 range.

If we convey the pick this year, it will likely be the #7 or #8 pick in the 2024 draft.

If we keep the pick this year, it will be among the top 6 with a 37% chance it's among the top 4 and should we convey the pick next year, it could be anywhere between the #7 to #18 pick in the 2025 draft.

Given those possibilities, which would you rather?

SCENARIO #1: Keep one of the top 6 picks in the 2024 draft with a 37% chance it's a top 4 pick. Convey the #13 pick in the 2025 draft.
SCENARIO #2: Convey the #7 or #8 pick in the 2024 draft. Keep the #13 pick in the 2025 draft.

[Ell Curry]

The more I read people describe Sarr as a #1 pick but also probably sort of a slightly better Poeltl/25M type of center, the more I become open to us losing the pick this year.

Definitely think that if we do keep the pick we should be force-feeding him 25 minutes a night and losing games as a result of him, Grady and our general youthfulness. You can always fire Darko if vibes get back and sell Barnes on a new coach and trying to compete the year after.

Who is describing Sarr as slightly better Poeltl type of C? I don’t think that is a good description at all.

Evan Mobley is a good comparison. Could also see Jaren Jackson Jr if his shot develops or Nic Claxton as a floor of the shot does not develop.

But a slightly more athletic and longer Mobley is the best comparison imo. Sarr is also coming in 1 year younger than Mobley was.

I have no personal takes on the foreign guys, but Mobley at USC was reading the game defensively as a 5 and covering ground in a way you just never see college centres do. I've been pretty surprised he's not a top 5 defensive center and I still sort of assume he'll get there in time.

Is Sarr seen as a good rebounder who just doesn't have the strength yet? 4.4 in 17 a game in the NBL isn't great. Like if he's a top 15-20 rebounder there at the moment, that seems less impressive than Sengun dominating the boards in Turkey at the same age, though Sengun being stockier might just mean he could establish position easier (though leading a pretty good league in O-Rebs at that age does indicate he's special, which you need to be to get 9-10 boards a game in the NBA). If Sarr is a good center but a Myles Turner level rebounder that's a little annoying for a center.

I like Nic Claxton fine, but if he's going #1 then losing the 7th pick probably isn't a massive disaster, whereas losing the 7th pick next year seems like it could cost us say a Bradley Beal type.

[ArthurVandelay]

The more I read people describe Sarr as a #1 pick but also probably sort of a slightly better Poeltl/25M type of center, the more I become open to us losing the pick this year.

Definitely think that if we do keep the pick we should be force-feeding him 25 minutes a night and losing games as a result of him, Grady and our general youthfulness. You can always fire Darko if vibes get back and sell Barnes on a new coach and trying to compete the year after.

Who is describing Sarr as slightly better Poeltl type of C? I don’t think that is a good description at all.

Evan Mobley is a good comparison. Could also see Jaren Jackson Jr if his shot develops or Nic Claxton as a floor of the shot does not develop.

But a slightly more athletic and longer Mobley is the best comparison imo. Sarr is also coming in 1 year younger than Mobley was.

I have no personal takes on the foreign guys, but Mobley at USC was reading the game defensively as a 5 and covering ground in a way you just never see college centres do. I've been pretty surprised he's not a top 5 defensive center and I still sort of assume he'll get there in time.

Is Sarr seen as a good rebounder or likely to be able to put on 20 pounds? 4.4 in 17 a game in the NBL isn't great.

I like Nic Claxton fine, but if he's going #1 then losing the 7th pick probably isn't a massive disaster, whereas losing the 7th pick next year seems like it could cost us say a Bradley Beal type.

In the draft thread I gave a pretty detailed rundown of comparison between Mobley and Sarr.

Their rebounding number per 36 and ORB/DRB/TRB %s are almost identical - difference of course 19 year old freshman vs 18 yo first year pro.

I definitely agree Mobley read the game better as a passer and defensive anchor with Sarr being more athletic and I think will have a better shot.

Sarr is no scrub on D though. Mobley had 5.8DBPM compared to Sarr 3.5, but Mobley did play a little more than double the minutes.

[Scase]

There is no way MLSE allows for 3 years of basement dwelling without a playoff push. We will convey a first rounder unless we get hit with something catastrophic and things go really wrong.

Agree. Next year will be Barnes 4th season, IQ's 5th season and RJ's 6th season. They (BBQ) are young but have enough experience to be performing like seasoned veterans capable, we hope, to be playoff bound next year.

If it doesn't convey until 2027 as two 2nd rounders, that means we were bottom 6 in 2024, 2025 & 2026. If we're this bad for 3 straight seasons, it means BBQ core will have failed, Masai likely fired and your "dream come true" will become a nightmare.

The way I see it, we are tanking hard now to try and keep our 2024 pick because we expect BBQ to propel us to the playoffs next season & improve from there. That has to be the goal. Being basement dwellers for 3 seasons is not a viable option for this FO.

In complete agreement, but I would take it a step further and say it's not just the FO or even the ownership, it's the league as a whole. That kind of tanking - if purposeful - just can't be done in this league post Process Sixers; 2 years is all you get.

Our most recent case study is Prestie who got 2 years to tank with a potential number 1 on his team in SGA. Similarly, the Magic were out of the tank after 2 years. The Spurs will also shift direction after the 2nd year of their tank. Even Ainge hasn't bottomed out in Utah. The process Sixers tank job is just not allowed in this league anymore.

Teams that have been perpetually bad and often in the top of the lottery (Detroit, Houston, Charlotte) get there despite their efforts to win and compete. So yeah, if we hold on to our pick for the next 3 years, it means either a massive injury has derailed the team and/or Barnes/IQ/Barrett/Dick were complete let downs. I don't see any world where this is a dream come true, even for the most hardcore tanker out there. And if someone thinks this is the more realistic possibility for this team, they should be advocating a complete tear down now while these guys have value.

If we can tank next year for a top 5 and then push to win the following year, I could live with that. But if we make win now moves this off season, I'm entirely done with the FO. This team just lacks high end talent, and the upcoming draft does not look like even a 1st OA would solve that issue.

[Tacoma]

Agree. Next year will be Barnes 4th season, IQ's 5th season and RJ's 6th season. They (BBQ) are young but have enough experience to be performing like seasoned veterans capable, we hope, to be playoff bound next year.

If it doesn't convey until 2027 as two 2nd rounders, that means we were bottom 6 in 2024, 2025 & 2026. If we're this bad for 3 straight seasons, it means BBQ core will have failed, Masai likely fired and your "dream come true" will become a nightmare.

The way I see it, we are tanking hard now to try and keep our 2024 pick because we expect BBQ to propel us to the playoffs next season & improve from there. That has to be the goal. Being basement dwellers for 3 seasons is not a viable option for this FO.

Are you sure we have enough pieces and expected growth to be more than fighting for the play-in (9th-10th seed) next year? And is this core enough to keep growing to a contender, thus not needing to acquire high-end assets in 2025 draft?

Masai has demonstrated he believes talent can come from anywhere in the draft and can keep growing as long as they are hard-workers. Therefore, he can set the team up to win around 50% and then INCREMENTALLY add to core (from any position in the draft) to propel it into a contender (60% to 70% winning percentage) - instead of the Sam Presti's model of lining up lots of high end prospects / lottery tickets (from a true teardown and couple of years of hard tanking) and then wait for them to grow (because as they pan out, there is diminishing chances of drafting impactful players as your team starts to win).

Given how the draft positioning is inverse to your winning %, I don't believe in Masai's model working. Even when he gets lucky like OG / PS, he will find there is a ceiling to their growth, that ultimately caps the team's ceiling. And Masai still doing this after the failure of PS+OG+FVV core, by "retooling" with SB+RJ+IQ, instead of truly "rebuilding" .

At the end of the day, the difference in Masai and Presti's philosophy comes down to probability - I think the probability of Masai's model succeeding is much lower than Presti's model. Before someone says "Masai has won it before", I will preemptively point out that Masai's 2019 championship was using Presti's model, where BC was overseeing the years of losing and lottery prospect acquisition left for Masai.

I'm not at all sure we have the pieces that can lead us anywhere. The test starts next season and if we still end up bottom 6 with BBQ at/near their prime, then I think the answer leans we don't have the pieces and BBQ is likely not the core to proceed forward. But if the BBQ core makes the playoffs & is competitive, then Masai will likely add to it tactically piece-by-piece as you allude.

RE finding talent via the draft, that's part of the equation. But the picks from the Pacers likely ends up in the teens & twenties, & the chances of finding better player than IQ and RJ are low. It's more likely Masai will use the draft to add pieces to BBQ core.

At the end of the day, as I originally noted, the next few years will determine the fate of BBQ, thus we can't be tanking beyond this year. If we're bottom 6 these years, then BBQ isn't it and we need to rebuild the core with others. If this is the case, then BBQ needs to be broken up and, as ForeverTFC noted above, it's better to know this sooner than later.

[Scase]

Agree. Next year will be Barnes 4th season, IQ's 5th season and RJ's 6th season. They (BBQ) are young but have enough experience to be performing like seasoned veterans capable, we hope, to be playoff bound next year.

If it doesn't convey until 2027 as two 2nd rounders, that means we were bottom 6 in 2024, 2025 & 2026. If we're this bad for 3 straight seasons, it means BBQ core will have failed, Masai likely fired and your "dream come true" will become a nightmare.

The way I see it, we are tanking hard now to try and keep our 2024 pick because we expect BBQ to propel us to the playoffs next season & improve from there. That has to be the goal. Being basement dwellers for 3 seasons is not a viable option for this FO.

Are you sure we have enough pieces and expected growth to be more than fighting for the play-in (9th-10th seed) next year? And is this core enough to keep growing to a contender, thus not needing to acquire high-end assets in 2025 draft?

Masai has demonstrated he believes talent can come from anywhere in the draft and can keep growing as long as they are hard-workers. Therefore, he can set the team up to win around 50% and then INCREMENTALLY add to core (from any position in the draft) to propel it into a contender (60% to 70% winning percentage) - instead of the Sam Presti's model of lining up lots of high end prospects / lottery tickets (from a true teardown and couple of years of hard tanking) and then wait for them to grow (because as they pan out, there is diminishing chances of drafting impactful players as your team starts to win).

Given how the draft positioning is inverse to your winning %, I don't believe in Masai's model working. Even when he gets lucky like OG / PS, he will find there is a ceiling to their growth, that ultimately caps the team's ceiling. And Masai still doing this after the failure of PS+OG+FVV core, by "retooling" with SB+RJ+IQ, instead of truly "rebuilding" .

At the end of the day, the difference in Masai and Presti's philosophy comes down to probability - I think the probability of Masai's model succeeding is much lower than Presti's model. Before someone says "Masai has won it before", I will preemptively point out that Masai's 2019 championship was using Presti's model, where BC was overseeing the years of losing and lottery prospect acquisition left for Masai.

This has always been my biggest issue. Like when I hear people saying something like "Scottie needs to be a super star and IQ/RJ all stars and we will be on easy street", which completely ignores probability. Scottie is the only one on this team with a genuinely high ceiling, IQ and RJ definitely have more they can become, but the odds of them turning into AS+ level players is pretty damn low.

Presti's approach is by no means a guarantee of success, but it gives you way more kicks at the can of finding that true superstar player that every team needs to get a chip.

Masai's approach seems to be trying to be a good enough team, and then capitalize on another team having a fire sale. Being an opportunist is not a bad thing, but you have a higher chance of drafting a top end player, than randomly trading for one. Especially when those players typically can dictate where they get traded to.

I don't see how this team without a massive infusion of legitimate top talent goes anywhere beyond the second round as a ceiling. The thing that is infuriating to me, is that Masai and the FO are genuinely very good at drafting, yet always think they can make due with late lotto picks.

Just feels like we're gonna do this another handful of years before having to shut it down again.

[Indeed]

How much would BBQ playing would give us more wins?
I am pretty sure we won't be better than the record with Siakam, but we aren't worse than what we are with BBQ playing regardless of our rookie.

We are unlikely to be bottom 6th next year, and unlikely to be in the playoffs.

Your math is just bad, we are simply better off conveying this year than next year, and for sure next year.

Yes, we are unlikely to make the playoffs as one of the top 6 teams in the East and we are unlikely to have one of the 6 worst records next year.

Within those extremes, we can either make the play-in tournament and end up with a draft pick in the #15 to #18 range or fail to make the play-in tournament and end up in the bottom half of the lottery with a draft pick in the #7 to #14 range.

If we convey the pick this year, it will likely be the #7 or #8 pick in the 2024 draft.

If we keep the pick this year, it will be among the top 6 with a 37% chance it's among the top 4 and should we convey the pick next year, it could be anywhere between the #7 to #18 pick in the 2025 draft.

Given those possibilities, which would you rather?

SCENARIO #1: Keep one of the top 6 picks in the 2024 draft with a 37% chance it's a top 4 pick. Convey the #13 pick in the 2025 draft.
SCENARIO #2: Convey the #7 or #8 pick in the 2024 draft. Keep the #13 pick in the 2025 draft.

Sorry, I don't see we are in the #15 to #18 range. We are more in the #7 to #13 range. Therefore the scenarios are:
SCENARIO #1: Keep on of the top 6 picks in the 2024 draft. Convey the #10 pick in the 2025 draft
SCENARIO #2: Convey the #7 or #8 pick in the 2024 draft. Keep the pick in the 2025 draft, which allows you to 1) trade future pick 2) have another change to get a higher pick (serious in tanking).

Obviously, scenario #2 is better from many perspective, because you got control of your pick and you can make a decision tank harder or trade future pick. Way more flexible.

[bballsparkin]

Presti's approach can only work with ownership approval. That approval will not be provided in Toronto. There's too much money to be made and the team is not owned by a wealthy individual.

[ForeverTFC]

Agree. Next year will be Barnes 4th season, IQ's 5th season and RJ's 6th season. They (BBQ) are young but have enough experience to be performing like seasoned veterans capable, we hope, to be playoff bound next year.

If it doesn't convey until 2027 as two 2nd rounders, that means we were bottom 6 in 2024, 2025 & 2026. If we're this bad for 3 straight seasons, it means BBQ core will have failed, Masai likely fired and your "dream come true" will become a nightmare.

The way I see it, we are tanking hard now to try and keep our 2024 pick because we expect BBQ to propel us to the playoffs next season & improve from there. That has to be the goal. Being basement dwellers for 3 seasons is not a viable option for this FO.

In complete agreement, but I would take it a step further and say it's not just the FO or even the ownership, it's the league as a whole. That kind of tanking - if purposeful - just can't be done in this league post Process Sixers; 2 years is all you get.

Our most recent case study is Prestie who got 2 years to tank with a potential number 1 on his team in SGA. Similarly, the Magic were out of the tank after 2 years. The Spurs will also shift direction after the 2nd year of their tank. Even Ainge hasn't bottomed out in Utah. The process Sixers tank job is just not allowed in this league anymore.

Teams that have been perpetually bad and often in the top of the lottery (Detroit, Houston, Charlotte) get there despite their efforts to win and compete. So yeah, if we hold on to our pick for the next 3 years, it means either a massive injury has derailed the team and/or Barnes/IQ/Barrett/Dick were complete let downs. I don't see any world where this is a dream come true, even for the most hardcore tanker out there. And if someone thinks this is the more realistic possibility for this team, they should be advocating a complete tear down now while these guys have value.

If we can tank next year for a top 5 and then push to win the following year, I could live with that. But if we make win now moves this off season, I'm entirely done with the FO. This team just lacks high end talent, and the upcoming draft does not look like even a 1st OA would solve that issue.

Might be really hard with Scottie/IQ/Barrett on the roster. Portland and Washington will be deep in the tank to begin the season. I also suspect Ainge will trade Laurie and also begin his tank next season.

Then you have the Spurs, Charlotte and Detroit who will go into the season with worse rosters and the off-season could also put Brooklyn, Atlanta and Chicago in this group depending on what they do. So 6 potential teams to “compete” with for the final 2 spots. Barring another injury riddled season, it will be very hard for us to out tank all these guys with our roster as it stands.

I suspect this is why they’ve prioritized keeping the pick this year.

[Indeed]

Why don't we want to keep all our firsts? I want to convey 2 2nds to SA. That's my dream come true.

There is no way MLSE allows for 3 years of basement dwelling without a playoff push. We will convey a first rounder unless we get hit with something catastrophic and things go really wrong.

The high second round seems to be a complete wasteland in bad draft years. Lowry went 24th in that horrendous Bargs drat year of 2006. Paul Millsap went 47th overall. The biggest busts were Centres who never translated across most drafts. JJ Reddick had a career picked #11. Lowry picked #24 is the only player from the first round in 06 and PJ Tucker is the only player still floating from the 2nd round from that year. Rudy Gay is out of the league just this year.

This draft is bad in that there are no Victor Wembanyamas. Sarr might be another LeMarcus Aldridge. Might. There are a lot of athletic 6'8/9 wings in this draft. Castle should be top 3-5 and ditto for (a healthy) Cody Williams. A lot of bigs muddy the waters this year. Collier should be top ten on skills and motor. Potential. This draft is better than 2006, thankfully, and might be as good as as 2013.

If we got Castle, Collier out of this draft by not conveying then staying in the weaker draft might have been smart money. There must be someone the Raps like early first round otherwise we would not see such a conveniently limping roster to bomb out of 2024. I'm guessing they like Sarr, Topic and Castle. 1-6. Pacers pick will be a dice roll and Collier might be the guy. Pacers 17-18 and Detroit 31 could be draft night trade fodder except we almost never trade at the draft.

Sadly, this draft only has average athletic wings, and the top ones people like to select aren't that athletic or measurement isn't particular outstanding. I don't think they are at the Achiuwa / Siakam measurement, so their ceiling is pretty average.

[islandboy53]

If we can tank next year for a top 5 and then push to win the following year, I could live with that. But if we make win now moves this off season, I'm entirely done with the FO. This team just lacks high end talent, and the upcoming draft does not look like even a 1st OA would solve that issue.

The odds of us being bottom 5 are essentially zero. The team will obviously add pieces this offseason, with a view to being better short term and long term. The nature of those moves will depend on how the ping pong balls drop.