Official Play-in Thread - Our Play-in Destiny is in our Hands

[Indeed]

BBQ+Poeltl lineup has been negative this season. Ingram is not our savior.

How many minutes has that lineup played together?

Not a lot, but second most in minutes with Dick (6 games, 14.1 mins).
Opponents: Milwaukee (blown out), New York (blown out), Cleveland (no Mitchell), Detroit, Chicago (blown out), Clippers (no Powell, only win)

[Duffman100]

BBQ+Poeltl lineup has been negative this season. Ingram is not our savior.

How many minutes has that lineup played together?

Not a lot, but second most in minutes with Dick (6 games, 14.1 mins).
Opponents: Milwaukee (blown out), New York (blown out), Cleveland (no Mitchell), Detroit, Chicago (blown out), Clippers (no Powell, only win)

Doesn't sound like enough of a sample size to draw any conclusions.

[Ackshun]

As much as I’d love to see these guys in a playoff environment, it just doesn’t make sense for me.

Weak schedule, so we beat a bunch of crappy teams to make the play in, only to face one of the top teams in the league in a best of 7. I don’t have faith in Darko to pull that off.

But with a healthy roster and a little regular season momentum, I wouldn’t want to face the Raptors. I wouldn’t fight it.

[DelAbbot]

[Indeed]

How many minutes has that lineup played together?

Not a lot, but second most in minutes with Dick (6 games, 14.1 mins).
Opponents: Milwaukee (blown out), New York (blown out), Cleveland (no Mitchell), Detroit, Chicago (blown out), Clippers (no Powell, only win)

Doesn't sound like enough of a sample size to draw any conclusions.

I wouldn't say it being too small. It may not be precise to +/- 10%, but it gives us some idea of Poeltl+BBQ lineup.

[Duffman100]

Not a lot, but second most in minutes with Dick (6 games, 14.1 mins).
Opponents: Milwaukee (blown out), New York (blown out), Cleveland (no Mitchell), Detroit, Chicago (blown out), Clippers (no Powell, only win)

Doesn't sound like enough of a sample size to draw any conclusions.

I wouldn't say it being too small. It may not be precise to +/- 10%, but it gives us some idea of Poeltl+BBQ lineup.

6 games and 85 minutes. That's 10% of games and roughly 3% of all minutes played by the entire team.

6/57= ~10%
85/(57*48)=2736 = ~3% (not taking into account overtime games)

That's too small.

[djsunyc]

viewtopic.php?f=32&t=2433865

[dhackett1565]

BBQ+Poeltl lineup has been negative this season. Ingram is not our savior.

I mean, it's Gradey in that 5th spot, and even that sample is over a total of 6 games. Basically zero sample with any other lineups with those 4, which is criminal. Ingram is a pretty big upgrade over Gradey on both ends, for all his imperfections.

[Duffman100]

BBQ+Poeltl lineup has been negative this season. Ingram is not our savior.

I mean, it's Gradey in that 5th spot, and even that sample is over a total of 6 games. Basically zero sample with any other lineups with those 4, which is criminal. Ingram is a pretty big upgrade over Gradey on both ends, for all his imperfections.

Or throw in Abaji / Shead for defense, hell even Walter.

I still have faith in Dick and like his game. But if you sort our lineups by DRTG, you'll see a common denominator.
https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced?CF=MIN*G*20&TeamID=1610612761&dir=D&slug=advanced&sort=DEF_RATING

[kwajo]

If we get/stay healthy, I think it is a distinct possibility that we find ourselves in the play-in. There are multiple teams ahead of us in a freefall, which we can't do anything about, and if the team decides to give BI a try for 10 games or so this season, then all of a sudden we have four guys on the floor who can give us 20 ppg and become a real matchup problem for a lot of teams on our easy remaining schedule.

That being said, I could easily see us sitting guys out longer than necessary for small injuries just to avoid it, but the more evidence I see of the team's style, I just don't see that happening.

[dhackett1565]

BBQ+Poeltl lineup has been negative this season. Ingram is not our savior.

I mean, it's Gradey in that 5th spot, and even that sample is over a total of 6 games. Basically zero sample with any other lineups with those 4, which is criminal. Ingram is a pretty big upgrade over Gradey on both ends, for all his imperfections.

Or throw in Abaji / Shead for defense, hell even Walter.

I still have faith in Dick and like his game. But if you sort our lineups by DRTG, you'll see a common denominator.
https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced?CF=MIN*G*20&TeamID=1610612761&dir=D&slug=advanced&sort=DEF_RATING

Yeah, the additional variants that have even a few minutes of sample (meaningless but at least they tried it) have been: Boucher in for Gradey (what?), Brown in for Gradey (sure, but why?), and Ochai in for Gradey - which I would have thought is the obvious win-games starting lineup, and they've used for a total of THREE MINUTES. Not a single second of Davion (who I also thought could potentially start at the 2 heading into the season), Shead or Walter.

They are definitely doing some subtle tanking stuff, and lineup inefficiencies like this scuttling the minutes our best players are playing together is one example of it. Lineups with none of the core on the court is something else we've done a lot of even when relatively healthy, another way to lose minutes easily. Though of late it's been harder to come by those minutes with all three of BBQ available.

That's the sort of tanking stuff we can expect, not just sitting guys.

[YogurtProducer]

How many minutes has that lineup played together?

Not a lot, but second most in minutes with Dick (6 games, 14.1 mins).
Opponents: Milwaukee (blown out), New York (blown out), Cleveland (no Mitchell), Detroit, Chicago (blown out), Clippers (no Powell, only win)

Doesn't sound like enough of a sample size to draw any conclusions.

BBQ + Poeltl + any 5th player has appeared in 10 games, with a -5.0NRTG.

Those games were:

Game 1 (IQ left early injured)
Game 34 thru 39 (IQ's first 6 games in 3 months)
Game 48 to 50 (IQ played 18mpg in these 3 games)

Not only is the sample small, the sample is literally non existent.


On the other hand, lineups with RJ/Barnes/Poeltl have a +1.2NRTG in 25 games. That is despite their most common "4th" partner being Dick and there is a -11.1NRTG there.

Long story short, next season when we want to win, we start Agbaji/JKW/2025 1st instead of Dick.

[djsunyc]

BBQ+Poeltl lineup has been negative this season. Ingram is not our savior.

I mean, it's Gradey in that 5th spot, and even that sample is over a total of 6 games. Basically zero sample with any other lineups with those 4, which is criminal. Ingram is a pretty big upgrade over Gradey on both ends, for all his imperfections.

Or throw in Abaji / Shead for defense, hell even Walter.

I still have faith in Dick and like his game. But if you sort our lineups by DRTG, you'll see a common denominator.
https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced?CF=MIN*G*20&TeamID=1610612761&dir=D&slug=advanced&sort=DEF_RATING

using your link, we have played 57 games so far and our top 2 lineups in terms of minutes have played 14 and 13 games respectfully. the 3rd most used lineup has played only 6 games. we have been legit injured all year.

top 2 lineups in terms of minutes:

yak/rj/ochai/davion/gradey: 14 games, 167 mins, 113.1 drtg (+3.6 net)
yak/rj/davion/barnes/gradey: 13 games, 126 mins, 113.2 dtg (-8.0 net)

of the top 5 lineups used, only 1 is a + net rating:

yak/rj/ochai/scottie/jakobe: 4 games, 63 minutes, 100.7 drtg (+22.1)

with all that said, the sample size is so small. our top minute lineup would rank 31st in the league. there are some teams with multiple lineups that have played more that 167 minutes.

the teams in the top 5 in mins have 826, 528, 431, 416, 409 mins together. that's crazy.

[Parataxis]

Look, no.

If we play our prospects, sit our banged up vets, and somehow still make it into the play-in (won't happen. It really won't happen), then fine - I'm not going to fault our kids for playing hard.

But we should absolutely not be making an intentional push to get into the play in.

[kalel123]

Tank looks like it's about to give out. But to actually go for the play-in would be (Please Use More Appropriate Word).

If they happen to stumble into it, that would be bad but to actually want it? F that.

People here keep saying Masai Ujiri had this team tank on purpose before and if there's any truth to that, time is now for him to do so again. We are so close and yet so far. It'll be tougher than ever with soft schedule and Barnes probably hellbent on playing 65+ games for the slimmest chance at All-NBA though I think he has no chance in hell.

[Indeed]

Not a lot, but second most in minutes with Dick (6 games, 14.1 mins).
Opponents: Milwaukee (blown out), New York (blown out), Cleveland (no Mitchell), Detroit, Chicago (blown out), Clippers (no Powell, only win)

Doesn't sound like enough of a sample size to draw any conclusions.

BBQ + Poeltl + any 5th player has appeared in 10 games, with a -5.0NRTG.

Those games were:

Game 1 (IQ left early injured)
Game 34 thru 39 (IQ's first 6 games in 3 months)
Game 48 to 50 (IQ played 18mpg in these 3 games)

Not only is the sample small, the sample is literally non existent.


On the other hand, lineups with RJ/Barnes/Poeltl have a +1.2NRTG in 25 games. That is despite their most common "4th" partner being Dick and there is a -11.1NRTG there.

Long story short, next season when we want to win, we start Agbaji/JKW/2025 1st instead of Dick.

Sounds great, and that is what we said last year as well, only played 4 games, and people here thought they would be a playoff team?

[Potential]

[Nebuchadnezzar]

viewtopic.php?f=32&t=2433865

Mods can we please merge this into the official Play-in thread?

[MiamiSPX]

We beat a mid Suns team on the back leg of a B2B and now I keep seeing comments about the play-in lol. On a day we are about get thumped no less.

[DelAbbot]

Damn that's good