Jerry Lucas wrote:I always find it interesting to keep track of who is driving winning via Win Shares and will probably start posting it here more often after games if I have time. Win Shares correlate heavily with both Expected W/L and the team's actual record.
Using last season as a recent full season sample off the top of my head, the players combined for a total of 32 win shares, and finished with both expected and actual win totals of 30.
Last night the players combined for 1 Win Share and got the 1st W of the season:
Scottie: 0.3 WS (0.2 oWS/0.1 dWS)
RJ: 0.2 WS (0.1 oWS/0.1 dWS)
Gradey: 0.2 oWS
Ochai: 0.1 dWS
Poeltl and Shead: 0.1 oWS each
Everyone else that played last night had less than 0.05 Win Shares (rounds down to 0 instead of up to 0.1). Ingram was the only guy who was a negative, but it was higher than -0.05 (rounds up to 0 instead of down to -0.1).
Interesting BI was the worst of them in this category. I felt like his shot creation in the first quarter was what opened up the floor and got this team into a rhythm offensively.
Compared to how this team has played the last few years, BI felt like the difference between just RJ coming out hot with the rest of the team struggling to get going, and us just having a strong night offensively from start to finish.
Another strong example of stats not being able to tell the whole story by themselves IMO. Very interesting to reference though, good post.
If you were on the other side pat yourself on the back and have a lunch on my homie!
