SoTD: Bargnani's defensive numbers over 4 years

[TMMC]

The team defencive rating got worse every year. Bargs defencive rating got worse every year. BARGS CAUSED THE TEAM DEFENCE RATING TO DROP EVERY YEAR!!

What? Every single other position got worse too? well...ya but no...but...ya...but...

The main point is that Bargnani has been a net negative for four years now defensively. Late into the 2008-2009 season, posters a lot smarter than you were predicting disaster in 2009-2010 if the Bargnani-Bosh combo was going to get major minutes simply by looking at the defensive ratings of different lineups. Bargnani + Bosh simply couldn't work defensively as a combo and not because of Bosh, as the stats proved.

I agree the combo would never work and that has been proven but the stats do not prove that Bosh is a good defender or that it could of worked with Bosh teamed up with anyone other than Bargnani...

This team was brutal defensively from top to bottom and there is much more to the numbers than meets the eye....

In simple terms for the simpletons, Bosh sucked defensively, Bargnani sucked defensively, Turk sucked defensively, Derozan sucked defensively and Jackeron sucked defensively... They collectively stunk it up and it cannot be pinned on one man no matter how you try to spin it....

[theonlyeastcoastrapsfan]

What I don't get, and what I can only imagine is the product of some fixation, is why we realized when the numbers were first provided that these are anecdotal and don't tell the whole story, we're going over them again.

Plus, the team we had last year, is not the team we will have next year, nor was it the team we had the year before. Heck, even pre december, and post december seemed, defensively, like too different Roster squads. How do then numbers rank then? Was it an issue of communication not being there on the court? many have said that, is taht all on one guy? Many have said that improved after December. But we all watch the games, or at least a fair number of then right? So why is it with Bargs people look at the latest stat, or the latest box score, to tell them what they should already know. Unless you haven't seen a lot of Barg's games, I can't see why this sotd, or that sotd would influence your opinion, based on what' you've seen. If you watch the games are are of the opinion he's a net loss for us, i don't imagine per or sotd would change that. Or vice versa. If talking was an issue with some of the team at the first of the year.

Also, I think he played the most minutes this year. He's likely played a lot in our worst games, and our best games, but the first of our season really put us in the hole. I don't think that can all be blamed on Andrea.

Plus, we have all these talks but seemed to me it was our transition defense that killed us. Every bad shot was a fast break the other way, to me that's where our defensive analysis should focus, if our goals are to examine bad defense. But I think the goal is just portray the player negatively, based on the fact that this has been the Sotd, on numerous occasions.

[ZefSyde]

The main point is that Bargnani has been a net negative for four years now defensively. Late into the 2008-2009 season, posters a lot smarter than you were predicting disaster in 2009-2010 if the Bargnani-Bosh combo was going to get major minutes simply by looking at the defensive ratings of different lineups. Bargnani + Bosh simply couldn't work defensively as a combo and not because of Bosh, as the stats proved.

Much smarter than me? Thats a bold statement. Did they also predict that positions 1 through 4 would also get worse? No? I didnt think so. Because with odds like 100%, you cant be wrong! Would I be a genius if I went on 4 years ago and said the exact some thing about Bosh (his #'s went down every year too) and correlated it to how the team is doing? Bosh' numbers went down just as much as Andreas but the nut huggers dont want to deal with it.

Its all andreas fault, those 4 years he just kept getting worse and worse, I know. Those geniuses from 2 years ago, I hope they are playing their lottery numbers!

Thanks!

I'm not sure you are very smart if you don't understand this.
All the other 4 positions got worse, but Bargnani was always worse than the rest.
In your remedial class, everyone else gets a B, but you get a C.
The next year, everyone else gets a C, but you get a D.
Maybe the next year, everyone else gets an A, but you get a B.
So you're consistently dumber than the rest.

http://www.albinoblacksheep.com/flash/youare

Dumbest analogy ever. Go look at CourSides post about what other players ratings were before you look like an idiot. And no Bargs was not always worse than the rest, thats just you making **** up to support your fantasy.

[evenflow]

The team defencive rating got worse every year. Bargs defencive rating got worse every year. BARGS CAUSED THE TEAM DEFENCE RATING TO DROP EVERY YEAR!!

What? Every single other position got worse too? well...ya but no...but...ya...but...

The main point is that Bargnani has been a net negative for four years now defensively. Late into the 2008-2009 season, posters a lot smarter than you were predicting disaster in 2009-2010 if the Bargnani-Bosh combo was going to get major minutes simply by looking at the defensive ratings of different lineups. Bargnani + Bosh simply couldn't work defensively as a combo and not because of Bosh, as the stats proved.

The stats do not prove that, thats the point posters are trying to make. The only way the stat would prove the ops conclusions is if all the variables stayed the same over the 4 year period, so I ask, have all the variables been consistent over the 4 year period? Have the other 4 players (variables) around Andrea stayed the same? If they have not than the data is not accurate enough to prove the conclusions as true.

[Tony_Montana]

I agree the combo would never work and that has been proven but the stats do not prove that Bosh is a good defender or that it could of worked with Bosh teamed up with anyone other than Bargnani.

Yes it does. Bosh+Jo worked defensively as did Bosh+Rasho. Heck, Bosh was the starting C on the 7th ranked defensive team in the league as a 210 lb rookie. No excuses for getting adjusted to the position or any nonsense like that. He was put in a situation where he had to produce to play and he did.

[ZefSyde]

I would also remind everyone that Bosh played against the opposing teams bench a lot which would explain his DRTG stat.

LOL. Bosh has proven he can be a part of a good defensive starting unit as long as his C isn't a pylon.

Sorry I must have missed that, when did he prove this?

[Kevin Willis]

Sorry, I'm late to the party. Was out all day after I opened the thread and didn't get a chance to respond.

Tried reading some of the posts, but the vitriol is just too much and had to skip most of the crap. Not interested in whining. Either respond to the numbers or don't respond at all.

From the posts that I did read, the main point that I got was that the defenders around him got worse. The answer is "absolutely". But the numbers posted in the OP take that into account. He doesn't go from 113.1 to 116.9 by himself. He got help, lol. But the point remains the same. Even with those same horrendous defenders, the team - without Bargnani - still posted a DRTG of 108.3 last year.

Basically, as an example, Calderon's weakness becomes exposed big time with Bargnani, but gets masked a bit with Johnson.

I think it was Courtside who posted individual DRTG to prove that the players around him got worse. Unfortunately, you're mixing stats here. You can't use individual DRTG to explain team DRTG. One is derived from the other, and those individual numbers include 2800 minutes of Bargnani, i.e. they're already inflated.

I'll give you here more context:
Bosh and Bargnani played together 4642 minutes over 4 years. The team DRTG with both of them on the court was a horrendous 113.2.

However, the minute Bargnani stepped off the court, and Bosh played with someone else in the frontcourt, the team DRTG (5895 minutes over 4 years) dropped to 104.9. That's with the same crappy defenders that everybody keeps talking about.

Here's the year-over-year breakdown:

Code: Select all

Year       Team DRTG with Bosh/No Bargnani
2006-2007   104.31   
2007-2008   103.07
2008-2009   105.55
2009-2010   106.42

Those same crappy defenders all of a sudden don't look half as bad with Bosh and another big (Johnson, Rasho, O'Neil, Humphries, etc., even Hedo at PF), and Bargnani sitting on the bench.

SS to do a more apples to apples comparison have you compared Bargs DRTG with that of other offensive-minded bigs like a Dirk, Mehmet, West, Randolph, etc. to see it this is a Bargs issue or a skillset issue?

I think the fact Bargs subs are better defenders help to contribute to his numbers being worse and often times when Bosh played with Bargs he also played with Turk and Jose but I'm not silly enough to not acknowledge that Bargs is a poor defensive big. Just want to put in proper context how poor is he relative to his skillset.

[Tony_Montana]

I would also remind everyone that Bosh played against the opposing teams bench a lot which would explain his DRTG stat.

LOL. Bosh has proven he can be a part of a good defensive starting unit as long as his C isn't a pylon.

Sorry I must have missed that, when did he prove this?

With JO. With Rasho. As a rookie. On the Olympic team.

[Tony_Montana]

Dumbest analogy ever. Go look at CourSides post about what other players ratings were before you look like an idiot. And no Bargs was not always worse than the rest, thats just you making **** up to support your fantasy.

He's been a net negative every year on this team as opposed to other guys who've been slightly positive or neutral. Is this a difficult concept to grasp? lol

[Local_NG_Idiot]

The constants over the past 4 years have been Bosh, Calderon and Bargnani. For **** and giggles, I'm going to include the starting wings over those seasons as well, sticking with Bargs over those same 4 seasons since that what this thread is about.

So... it would appear that from 2006, the DRtg of each starter at each position dropped by either -7 or -8, with the exception of PG where it dropped by -10. If you use Jose's numbers from 06-07, it still would have dropped by -8.

Seems to me the entire team dropped by a more or less equal amount, year to year, no?

But SS is looking at ON/OFF not overall so let's break down by starting position ON/OFF since 06-07

Year/Player/ON/OFF/Diff

06-07/TJ/105.7/108/-2.3
07-08/Jose/109.5/104.9/4.6
08-09/Jose/112.1/108.2/3.9
09-10/Jose/116/112.9/3.1
(TJ defensive net positive when on the floor, Jose consistently defensive net negative by 4 points when on the floor)

06-07/Parker/104/111.1/-7.1
07-08/Parker/108.7/106/2.7
08-09/Parker/110.2/111.1/-0.9
09-10/DeRozan/115.9/113.1/2.8
(Parker defensive net went up and down over the 3 years but was never truly terrible, DD last season was a defensive net negative by almost 3 points)

06-07/Garbo/104.2/109.1/-4.9
07-08/Moon/107.2/108.5/-1.3
08-09/Moon/106.2/112.7/-6.5 - Marion/110.8/110.3/0.1
09-10/Turk/116.1/111.9/4.2
(Here's your big culprit from last season, you are talking about a net 8-10 defensive points per 100 possession swing from your SF starter compared to previous years)

06-07/Bosh/106.2/107.9/-1.7
07-08/Bosh/106.6/109.6/-3
08-09/Bosh/110.9/109.2/1.7
09-10/Bosh/113.6/115.6/-2
(Bosh has been consistent throughout year, teammates and coaching changes. Not a great defensive impact but he didn’t hurt the team either, not that it’s his true strength on the court anyways).

06-07/Rasho/103.2/109.2/-6
07-08/Bargs/108.7/107/1.7 - Rasho/105.2/109.3/-4.1
08-09/Bargs/113.1/106.2/6.9 - JO/110.5/110.4/0.1
09-10/Bargs/116.9/108.3/8.6
(Bargs is really the only starter that has shown consistent net defensive decline from year to year)

The epic failure of this teams defense last season was due to a few factors: The starting SF positions decline in defense, Jose’s consistent poor defense, and Bargnani’s further decline.

[Tony_Montana]

Bosh was producing as a 210lb rookie playing out of position and in year 5 posters are still creating abstract excuses for Bargnani's play.

[ZefSyde]

I agree the combo would never work and that has been proven but the stats do not prove that Bosh is a good defender or that it could of worked with Bosh teamed up with anyone other than Bargnani.

Yes it does. Bosh+Jo worked defensively as did Bosh+Rasho. Heck, Bosh was the starting C on the 7th ranked defensive team in the league as a 210 lb rookie. No excuses for getting adjusted to the position or any nonsense like that. He was put in a situation where he had to produce to play and he did.

Bosh and JO worked? Is that why JO got shipped out within 3 months? Because they were working so well?

L
M
F
A
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Bosh was the starting centre of a team that won 27 games (which gave us the #1 pick) scrogin 16ppg in 38mins and the teams rating was so low because they slowed down the pace to a crawl.

So yeah, Bosh really worked out so well he gave us the #1 overall pick with his amazing defence ranked #7 in the entire league!!!! YEAH BOI!!!! I hope we get ranked #7 this year again and win 27 games!!!!

If you are going to use examples, dont use ridiculous ones!! lmao!!!

[Crazy-Canuck]

The constants over the past 4 years have been Bosh, Calderon and Bargnani. For **** and giggles, I'm going to include the starting wings over those seasons as well, sticking with Bargs over those same 4 seasons since that what this thread is about.

So... it would appear that from 2006, the DRtg of each starter at each position dropped by either -7 or -8, with the exception of PG where it dropped by -10. If you use Jose's numbers from 06-07, it still would have dropped by -8.

Seems to me the entire team dropped by a more or less equal amount, year to year, no?

But SS is looking at ON/OFF not overall so let's break down by starting position ON/OFF since 06-07

Year/Player/ON/OFF/Diff

06-07/TJ/105.7/108/-2.3
07-08/Jose/109.5/104.9/4.6
08-09/Jose/112.1/108.2/3.9
09-10/Jose/116/112.9/3.1
(TJ defensive net positive when on the floor, Jose consistently defensive net negative by 4 points when on the floor)

06-07/Parker/104/111.1/-7.1
07-08/Parker/108.7/106/2.7
08-09/Parker/110.2/111.1/-0.9
09-10/DeRozan/115.9/113.1/2.8
(Parker defensive net went up and down over the 3 years but was never truly terrible, DD last season was a defensive net negative by almost 3 points)

06-07/Garbo/104.2/109.1/-4.9
07-08/Moon/107.2/108.5/-1.3
08-09/Moon/106.2/112.7/-6.5 - Marion/110.8/110.3/0.1
09-10/Turk/116.1/111.9/4.2
(Here's your big culprit from last season, you are talking about a net 8-10 defensive points per 100 possession swing from your SF starter compared to previous years)

06-07/Bosh/106.2/107.9/-1.7
07-08/Bosh/106.6/109.6/-3
08-09/Bosh/110.9/109.2/1.7
09-10/Bosh/113.6/115.6/-2
(Bosh has been consistent throughout year, teammates and coaching changes. Not a great defensive impact but he didn’t hurt the team either, not that it’s his true strength on the court anyways).

06-07/Rasho/103.2/109.2/-6
07-08/Bargs/108.7/107/1.7 - Rasho/105.2/109.3/-4.1
08-09/Bargs/113.1/106.2/6.9 - JO/110.5/110.4/0.1
09-10/Bargs/116.9/108.3/8.6
(Bargs is really the only starter that has shown consistent net defensive decline from year to year)

The epic failure of this teams defense last season was due to a few factors: The starting SF positions decline in defense, Jose’s consistent poor defense, and Bargnani’s further decline.

Good dig.

Its always been a culmination of many things and not just Bargs alone. I wont be surprised when LNG's post gets ignored.

Bargs was a bad team defender last years, but he gets too much of the blame for our defensive woes of the past few years.

[Tony_Montana]

Oh yeah, and Moon continues to be the single most unappreciated player on this board. He was arguably our best wing player in the past 4 or 5 years outside of Parker in 06/07. Give me Moon's net production over Hedo/Marion at the SF position on this team. He was more valuable doing what he did at his cost than any of those guys.

The problem was at SG the whole time. Moon was more than capable as a starter and any capspace we had should have went to a legit scorer from the 2-guard position. Gawd Colangelo sucks.

[Tony_Montana]

Bosh was the starting centre of a team that won 27 games (which gave us the #1 pick) scrogin 16ppg in 38mins and the teams rating was so low because they slowed down the pace to a crawl.

It's a pace-adjusted stat, genius.

[ZefSyde]

LOL. Bosh has proven he can be a part of a good defensive starting unit as long as his C isn't a pylon.

Sorry I must have missed that, when did he prove this?

With JO. With Rasho. As a rookie. On the Olympic team.

With JO? With Rasho? As a rookie? Debunked this in my other post a few mins ago.


And if you are telling me Bosh can play good defence on a team with Dwayne Wade, Dwight Howard, Lebron James, Carmelo Anthony and 7 other players better than him against non-nba teams...then ok I guess you are right!! He sure is a stud!!

[ZefSyde]

Bosh was producing as a 210lb rookie playing out of position and in year 5 posters are still creating abstract excuses for Bargnani's play.

Producing what? Playing 37 minutes on the worst team in the league in 2005? We won 27 games and got the 1st overall pick when we ask bosh to anchor our defence, HA!

[ZefSyde]

Bosh was the starting centre of a team that won 27 games (which gave us the #1 pick) scrogin 16ppg in 38mins and the teams rating was so low because they slowed down the pace to a crawl.

It's a pace-adjusted stat, genius.

Pace adjusted for last place in the league. If you want to get the 7th best defence and the worst record in the league then those are not goals I strive for with this team.

[Hendrix]

Also a note on PDSS DRat, if i'm not mistaken it takes into account help D and defensive rebounding therefor giving a better picture of a players whole defensive game. The author goes into his reasoning here and he makes some great point
http://community.raptorspace.com/topic/ ... Stats.html

If you look at the formula for it, it looks at man to man defensive stats as the variables. Team defensive stats are hard to quantify so it's undesrstandable that it doesn't include those. But I feel that on/off drtg does the best job at quantifying the total defensive impact of a player. Of course there needs to be some context to it (who's replacing who, sample size etc...)

[Tony_Montana]

Bosh was the starting centre of a team that won 27 games (which gave us the #1 pick) scrogin 16ppg in 38mins and the teams rating was so low because they slowed down the pace to a crawl.

It's a pace-adjusted stat, genius.

Pace adjusted for last place in the league. If you want to get the 7th best defence and the worst record in the league then those are not goals I strive for with this team.

The question was about whether Bosh could play major minutes on a good defense and he's proven he can. Stop trolling.