Jalen Suggs vs. Jalen Green

[Chandan]

All in 4 Green! Reppin the pinoy squad!

Hope they are better at basketball than they are at Dota.

[Chandan]

Why is Suggs being described as a lower ceiling (but high floor) guy, when he's a freshman/19 years old and appears to be an NBA level elite athlete?

Usually guys that get tagged as 'lower ceiling' have B level athleticism, are older Juniors/Seniors or both

Not a rhetorical question, haven't been following prospects that closely and am mostly just going off eye test - am I overestimating how athletic Suggs looks re: first step and explosiveness? Combined with a grown man frame he looks like a "best athlete on the floor" type in college and even if he's not a NBA level A+ Westbrook/Wall level explosive athlete, he seems way more quick twitch than the nba player comps I'm seeing (eg; Billups, Roy)

He has a lot of room to improve as a shooter (and is already decent enough that expecting shooting improvement isn't a pipedream), is a freshman one and done, and apparently has only spent a year solely focused on basketball

On paper you'd think you're describing a "high upside/potential superstar' guy

Green has the Vince Carter Lavine type athletic abilities while Suggs would be closer to to say a fox minus the elite speed of fox but still speedy enough

Green isn't that type of athlete at all. Carter was almost 40 pounds heavier coming into the league and they probably get up to around the same height. There is a lot more power to vinces general movements on court.
Green is more like a ja morant body type but more explosive. Of course they could fill out but we don't know how that impacts their speed until they do so.

[Rapsalot]

Before we get to July 29 I want MU or BW to really explore the value of trading to number 2/3. I know some folks love Suggs but I’m looking at BPA and the top 4 are close. Maybe Pistons don’t take Cade but they would have to just fall in love with someone to give up a 6’ 7-8” PG when they need one.

We have three dramatic holes in our team. 1 (elite scorer and run stopper) my general feel is Green is the best for this and would allow us to sign and trade GTJ and KLow to fill out rooster and solve 2 A stating C which Mobley fits. Obviously C takes some time but if you see Miami and Phoenix Cs this is what I see in Evan. 3 We have a big cap problem with getting FA without Tax and I don’t mind if they have to tax now and again but as we have overpaid some guys it makes it hard to sign a Khem who was clearly valuable.
The pick helps this with a starter on Rookie scale next year.
Suggs might be a great all round player but he doesn’t solve one of our talent holes. Green and Mobley are as lock as you get to do that and if that cost us other future draft assets to get there I think we need to look at it!


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[SunBoy]

I've watched both for a while now and I want Suggs. I just feel like his game translates more to clutch and consistency. Especially important if you're in a grind of a playoff series - see 2019 sixers. Happy with Green but I think Suggs translates to deeper post-season runs.

[PT416]

I'm just happy to be here man.

[Chandan]

Man you guys are gonna be in for a surprise just looking at Suggs like a PG. I see him turning that corner like Wade did after he moved from PG to SG full time and focused on scoring. Suggs has all the scoring tools as well

What about a taller deron Williams?

[DreamTeam09]

Why is Suggs being described as a lower ceiling (but high floor) guy, when he's a freshman/19 years old and appears to be an NBA level elite athlete?

Usually guys that get tagged as 'lower ceiling' have B level athleticism, are older Juniors/Seniors or both

Not a rhetorical question, haven't been following prospects that closely and am mostly just going off eye test - am I overestimating how athletic Suggs looks re: first step and explosiveness? Combined with a grown man frame he looks like a "best athlete on the floor" type in college and even if he's not a NBA level A+ Westbrook/Wall level explosive athlete, he seems way more quick twitch than the nba player comps I'm seeing (eg; Billups, Roy)

He has a lot of room to improve as a shooter (and is already decent enough that expecting shooting improvement isn't a pipedream), is a freshman one and done, and apparently has only spent a year solely focused on basketball

On paper you'd think you're describing a "high upside/potential superstar' guy

Green has the Vince Carter Lavine type athletic abilities while Suggs would be closer to to say a fox minus the elite speed of fox but still speedy enough

Green isn't that type of athlete at all. Carter was almost 40 pounds heavier coming into the league and they probably get up to around the same height. There is a lot more power to vinces general movements on court.
Green is more like a ja morant body type but more explosive. Of course they could fill out but we don't know how that impacts their speed until they do so.

Well yeah VC is bigger than Jalen green which is why I put Lavine as well. I guess JA is fair in terms of athletic ability, I wouldn't of thought to mention Ja because he's more of a lead guard than a scoring 2 guard.

[arbsn]

ive just been hearing / reading so many things about how Jalen Green does not play any defense... that's my only concern

Whereas Suggs reminds me of the kind of guy who plays every possession on D like its the last. He also had some signature defensive plays in the NCAA tournament.

[Pooh_Jeter]

Green reminds me a bit of Tatum, but he is smaller. Not sure I see the top tier elite athleticism, but certainly is a good one. He has all the makings of the prototypical wing shot creator that teams covet right now so that is a large reason he has moved ahead of Suggs.

I've always been a fan of Suggs, there is no real weakness to his game. I think what holds him back is that like some have mentioned while he is a good athlete, he isn't elite in that respect. His shot going forward should be perfectly fine, but it's not like he is some incredible knockdown shooter either. Without the elite athleticism it does bring into question whether he tops out as a good scorer instead of a great one. Regardless, I'd bet on him. I definitely see a lot of Brandon Roy, but he also gets some Jason Kidd comparisons with his all around game.

[billy_hoyle]

I actually prefer Mobley, Suggs and Green over Cade.


Even tho we have #4, we still could get the best player

Probably not. Just go back the last 10 or even 20 years of drafts, and see how many of the top 4-5 picks are actually serviceable players right now. there's a 25-33 percent chance that a no. 4 pick is an all star. Those are reasonable odds, but it would really mean we need 3-4 no.4 picks in a row to guarantee one all star. If I were Masai, and we could trade for an all star or fringe all star player, I would do it in a heart beat. Unless the Raptors scouting staff are so much more confident than the statistics suggest.



I did a little exercise of just going back any number of years, and seeing how many of the top 10 were even serviceable players in the NBA. It's really really bad. The draft is not a sure fire way of hitting a jackpot player, unless you do it for many many years. And even then there is no guarantees, ask the advocates of the sixers' Process.



https://medium.com/@burakcankoc/what-are-the-odds-to-become-an-all-star-for-each-draft-pick-2d113d6b82e5

A couple issues with this analysis:

1. Not all drafts are created equal.

The 4th pick this year is worth much more than a couple years back when DeAndre Hunter went 4th.

2. The 4th pick in the draft isn't static. We actually have the ability to pick ANYONE of the players not picked top 3. So, in some respects, we actually have a chance at all-stars picked 5-X. Where X is a range of prospects that might have been selected at 4th.

Would people be surprised if Kuminga when 4th? How about Barnes? Maybe even Sengun, Moody or Mitchell. Technically, any of these guys is the fourth pick if we make them the fourth pick.

I remember when OKC took Westbrook 4th, he was slated to go lower than that by virtually everyone. He was a future MVP and the correct pick at 4. Just saying that that can happen literally every draft.

It's too simple to just look at the results, the process and options are much more dynamic than that.

[Basketball_Jones]

Green reminds me a bit of Tatum, but he is smaller. Not sure I see the top tier elite athleticism, but certainly is a good one. He has all the makings of the prototypical wing shot creator that teams covet right now so that is a large reason he has moved ahead of Suggs.

I've always been a fan of Suggs, there is no real weakness to his game. I think what holds him back is that like some have mentioned while he is a good athlete, he isn't elite in that respect. His shot going forward should be perfectly fine, but it's not like he is some incredible knockdown shooter either. Without the elite athleticism it does bring into question whether he tops out as a good scorer instead of a great one. Regardless, I'd bet on him. I definitely see a lot of Brandon Roy, but he also gets some Jason Kidd comparisons with his all around game.

I think for guards it’s not about elite athleticism any more. He’s really going to have to be a great shooter and able to create his own shot from out there to be great. At least he has great speed and footwork and finishing at the rim already. Something Fred lacks and drives us nuts with.

[TDotAllStar]

Need a prolific scorer, green has a better chance in doing that.

I agree we need someone who can score at will, with Suggs skillset and IQ he already shows the foundation to be that, those are intangibles. He also adds a much-needed playmaking ability for his team that Green does not seem to have. I can see our development team making Suggs an amazing scorer and someone who can boost Siakam and FVV as secondary options (replacing Lowry's playmaking).

[Pooh_Jeter]

Green reminds me a bit of Tatum, but he is smaller. Not sure I see the top tier elite athleticism, but certainly is a good one. He has all the makings of the prototypical wing shot creator that teams covet right now so that is a large reason he has moved ahead of Suggs.

I've always been a fan of Suggs, there is no real weakness to his game. I think what holds him back is that like some have mentioned while he is a good athlete, he isn't elite in that respect. His shot going forward should be perfectly fine, but it's not like he is some incredible knockdown shooter either. Without the elite athleticism it does bring into question whether he tops out as a good scorer instead of a great one. Regardless, I'd bet on him. I definitely see a lot of Brandon Roy, but he also gets some Jason Kidd comparisons with his all around game.

I think for guards it’s not about elite athleticism any more. He’s really going to have to be a great shooter and able to create his own shot from out there to be great. At least he has great speed and footwork and finishing at the rim already. Something Fred lacks and drives us nuts with.

For sure, skill development is most important and he has an outstanding base already. Like you said, just getting a feel for the NBA game and developing all those little tricks to get his shot off and he will be just fine.

Athleticism is kind of the get out of jail free card. If you are prime Rose/Westbrook it obviously just makes everything so much easier. Even if he isn't an amazing scorer, he brings a lot to the table defensively and in terms of playmaking so it's not the end of the world.

[Sandman88]

Man you guys are gonna be in for a surprise just looking at Suggs like a PG. I see him turning that corner like Wade did after he moved from PG to SG full time and focused on scoring. Suggs has all the scoring tools as well

Yeah, I’ve seen many J-Kidd & Jrue comparisons, but Suggs looks like a much better scorer than them. I still like the peak Brandon Roy comp for him

[Basketball_Jones]

Man you guys are gonna be in for a surprise just looking at Suggs like a PG. I see him turning that corner like Wade did after he moved from PG to SG full time and focused on scoring. Suggs has all the scoring tools as well

Yeah, I’ve seen many J-Kidd & Jrue comparisons, but Suggs looks like a much better scorer than them. I still like the peak Brandon Roy comp for him

I hope you guys are right and the NBA game opens up his scoring capabilities

[mulamutti]

A couple issues with this analysis:

1. Not all drafts are created equal. The 4th pick this year is worth much more than a couple years back when DeAndre Hunter went 4th.

We have heard a million times that any given year is a strong year or weak year, but even those analyses are often wrong. Its only after the fact that you know whether this year was a strong year or weak year. If this years 4th pick is worth more, all the more reason to strongly consider a trade for a known commodity, if available.

2. The 4th pick in the draft isn't static. We actually have the ability to pick ANYONE of the players not picked top 3. So, in some respects, we actually have a chance at all-stars picked 5-X. Where X is a range of prospects that might have been selected at 4th.

Would people be surprised if Kuminga when 4th? How about Barnes? Maybe even Sengun, Moody or Mitchell. Technically, any of these guys is the fourth pick if we make them the fourth pick.

You are wrong. The odds is suggesting the success rate of the picks at 4, suggesting the level of inaccuracy of the picks. of course we can pick from a lot more players (not picked 1-3), but the probability of success is only about 25-30%. Based on your rebuttal, why did we pick caboclo at 1st round - pick 20, instead of jokic at 2nd round pick 40? or Valancuinas at 5 instead of kawhi (who was drafted 15). It is not obvious to the best of scouts, and so it is a 25-30% crapshoot.

It's too simple to just look at the results, the process and options are much more dynamic than that.

What? too simple to look at results? What would you rather look at? The stats do not lie. Draft picking is a very low probability success rate. EVEN in 2003, Darko was picked over carmelo, Bosh and Carmelo over Wade. Even Jordan was only picked 3. Not trying to be mean, but you're entire rebuttal is wrong.

[ash_k]

Man you guys are gonna be in for a surprise just looking at Suggs like a PG. I see him turning that corner like Wade did after he moved from PG to SG full time and focused on scoring. Suggs has all the scoring tools as well

Yeah, I’ve seen many J-Kidd & Jrue comparisons, but Suggs looks like a much better scorer than them. I still like the peak Brandon Roy comp for him

I hope you guys are right and the NBA game opens up his scoring capabilities

He is not going to be turning that corner like Wade with 6'5 Wingspan and no explosive athleticism.
He is not going to be defending like Jrue with that same 6'5 Wingspan and all torso.
If,at least, he had that Jamal Murray's scoring mentality but he doesnt.

[Sandman88]

Yeah, I’ve seen many J-Kidd & Jrue comparisons, but Suggs looks like a much better scorer than them. I still like the peak Brandon Roy comp for him

I hope you guys are right and the NBA game opens up his scoring capabilities

He is not going to be turning that corner like Wade with 6'5 Wingspan and no explosive athleticism.
He is not going to be defending like Jrue with that same 6'5 Wingspan and all torso.
If,at least, he had that Jamal Murray's scoring mentality but he doesnt.

Thankfully Suggs is better than Murray in almost every facet of the game, aside from shooting, and he just turned 20.

[UnbelievablyRAW]

Yeah, I’ve seen many J-Kidd & Jrue comparisons, but Suggs looks like a much better scorer than them. I still like the peak Brandon Roy comp for him

I hope you guys are right and the NBA game opens up his scoring capabilities

He is not going to be turning that corner like Wade with 6'5 Wingspan and no explosive athleticism.
He is not going to be defending like Jrue with that same 6'5 Wingspan and all torso.
If,at least, he had that Jamal Murray's scoring mentality but he doesnt.

So in your assessment everyone is wrong and he’s gonna be a bust? I’d love to make that take my next sig

[Basketball_Jones]

Yeah, I’ve seen many J-Kidd & Jrue comparisons, but Suggs looks like a much better scorer than them. I still like the peak Brandon Roy comp for him

I hope you guys are right and the NBA game opens up his scoring capabilities

He is not going to be turning that corner like Wade with 6'5 Wingspan and no explosive athleticism.
He is not going to be defending like Jrue with that same 6'5 Wingspan and all torso.
If,at least, he had that Jamal Murray's scoring mentality but he doesnt.

Yeah I don’t like Wade comparisons either lol. Once in a generation athlete. But in today’s game, it’s less important at the guard spot. Shooting, handles, fast reaction, speed, etc. is ultimately what matters and wingspan and dunking not so much. Thankfully I do see enough in Suggs, and yet to be seen if his shooting can improve at next level.