Is Fred a true point guard?

[mdenny]

If management is smart, they'll be planning a pitch to Jokic if he hasn't re-upped with Denver, then they'll pivot to plan B: asset retention in Fred and GTJ if they fail.

Is there any question about jokic's resigning. He's eligible for the supermax next year. One would think he would sign that as soon as the door opens no?

They've got a big contract guy leaving for season ending back surgery and their other one hasn't played in a year for his own major, possibly career defining surgery.

If they flounder in the playoffs these next two years and these guys can't stay healthy or effective... If I'm Jokic that's my signal to get out. Giannis has been an outlier in this era when it comes to sticking with a mediocre team.

But wait a sec....unless I'm missing something or wrong about this (entirely possible)....jokic can sign the supermax next season if he resigns with nuggets. In order to sign with a different team (for less money)...he would have to wait an extra season?

I can't see any player risking that type of money (the largest NBA contract in history) by waiting an extra season and risking injury. Seems to me it's a sure thing that he secures that bag as soon as possible. Think it's like 250 Milly or something like that?

Even if he wants to switch teams....you sign the supermax ASAP (next year) and then demand a trade down the line. I tried googling to see if there was any doubt or rumblings about his contract status and came up empty. Am I wrong about this?

[mdenny]

He's been better than Lowry this year who has been very underwhelming for the Heat.

I'm reading Heat reddit and they are very disappointed with how he's playing.

He's shooting only 41% from the field and 30% from 3. I love Lowry but I've watched a few Heat games and he's been very passive and actually has a lot of unforced turnovers and sloppy plays.

Fred at this point is the better player, but obviously prime Lowry was elite.

His three point shooting brings down his overall shooting percentage. Only thing wrong with lowry's game is the three.

I would say its in the unlikely to incredibly unlikely range that lowry forgot or lost the ability to hit the nba three at a higher rate than 30%. I pointed this out many times the last time lowry started out poorly from three, but whatever.

Kyle's FTAs are also way down (5.9 in 19/20; 3.5 in 20/21; 2.1 so far this year) and he's now getting full on targeted on defense. He's leading the Heat in defended FGAs because of this and is giving up a whopping +7.7% above expected FG%.

It's more than just his three ball. Kyle is declining while Fred is ascending. Fred is very clearly the better player at this stage.

That Lowry contract was a huge mistake by Miami. He MIGHT be worth that money this year....where the heat don't really have a chance at a chip anyways. Now they're looking at two extremely inefficient contracts for the next few years (Duncan and Lowry). Imo....they totally blew this iteration of their team.

You can't afford to pay a guy close to 30 Milly if he only scores 10 ppg on inefficient shooting. Kyle is a role player now. Brings intangibles sure. They're not worth 30 Milly of your cap for the next 3 seasons.

[sidsid]

Is there any question about jokic's resigning. He's eligible for the supermax next year. One would think he would sign that as soon as the door opens no?

They've got a big contract guy leaving for season ending back surgery and their other one hasn't played in a year for his own major, possibly career defining surgery.

If they flounder in the playoffs these next two years and these guys can't stay healthy or effective... If I'm Jokic that's my signal to get out. Giannis has been an outlier in this era when it comes to sticking with a mediocre team.

But wait a sec....unless I'm missing something or wrong about this (entirely possible)....jokic can sign the supermax next season if he resigns with nuggets. In order to sign with a different team (for less money)...he would have to wait an extra season?

I can't see any player risking that type of money (the largest NBA contract in history) by waiting an extra season and risking injury. Seems to me it's a sure thing that he secures that bag as soon as possible. Think it's like 250 Milly or something like that?

Even if he wants to switch teams....you sign the supermax ASAP (next year) and then demand a trade down the line. I tried googling to see if there was any doubt or rumblings about his contract status and came up empty. Am I wrong about this?

It's the same as Giannis I assume. He has the ability to sign the extension a year before FA. We'll know by then if he's available. He may drag it out (it's how we lost Ibaka and Gasol), and he could still sign with Denver for the 5 year during the FA period too if he's looking at suitors I believe.

Unless he loses a leg, players of Jokic's caliber aren't at risk of not getting the bag.

What's still to be determined is if he's a LeBron/Durant type, where they understand that their teams are better off if they can sign him outright and then force them to do AD/Harden type trades where they mortgage the future.

The players have gotten savvier; if their goal is to win. The king showed them the blueprint.

[Los_29]

They've got a big contract guy leaving for season ending back surgery and their other one hasn't played in a year for his own major, possibly career defining surgery.

If they flounder in the playoffs these next two years and these guys can't stay healthy or effective... If I'm Jokic that's my signal to get out. Giannis has been an outlier in this era when it comes to sticking with a mediocre team.

But wait a sec....unless I'm missing something or wrong about this (entirely possible)....jokic can sign the supermax next season if he resigns with nuggets. In order to sign with a different team (for less money)...he would have to wait an extra season?

I can't see any player risking that type of money (the largest NBA contract in history) by waiting an extra season and risking injury. Seems to me it's a sure thing that he secures that bag as soon as possible. Think it's like 250 Milly or something like that?

Even if he wants to switch teams....you sign the supermax ASAP (next year) and then demand a trade down the line. I tried googling to see if there was any doubt or rumblings about his contract status and came up empty. Am I wrong about this?

It's the same as Giannis I assume. He has the ability to sign the extension a year before FA. We'll know by then if he's available. He may drag it out (it's how we lost Ibaka and Gasol), and he could still sign with Denver for the 5 year during the FA period too if he's looking at suitors I believe.

Unless he loses a leg, players of Jokic's caliber aren't at risk of not getting the bag.

What's still to be determined is if he's a LeBron/Durant type, where they understand that their teams are better off if they can sign him outright and then force them to do AD/Harden type trades where they mortgage the future.

The players have gotten savvier; if their goal is to win. The king showed them the blueprint.

KD/Lebron/Kawhi era is nearing the end though given their respective ages and injury history. Those are basically the only three players that have been doing this super team stuff. It will be really interesting to see if the new generation will do the same. It's still early but I can't see guys like Booker, Giannis, Jokic and Young doing the same. I do however, see Doncic possibly doing something if the Mavs continue to surround him with mediocre level talent. But that's about it.

[sidsid]

But wait a sec....unless I'm missing something or wrong about this (entirely possible)....jokic can sign the supermax next season if he resigns with nuggets. In order to sign with a different team (for less money)...he would have to wait an extra season?

I can't see any player risking that type of money (the largest NBA contract in history) by waiting an extra season and risking injury. Seems to me it's a sure thing that he secures that bag as soon as possible. Think it's like 250 Milly or something like that?

Even if he wants to switch teams....you sign the supermax ASAP (next year) and then demand a trade down the line. I tried googling to see if there was any doubt or rumblings about his contract status and came up empty. Am I wrong about this?

It's the same as Giannis I assume. He has the ability to sign the extension a year before FA. We'll know by then if he's available. He may drag it out (it's how we lost Ibaka and Gasol), and he could still sign with Denver for the 5 year during the FA period too if he's looking at suitors I believe.

Unless he loses a leg, players of Jokic's caliber aren't at risk of not getting the bag.

What's still to be determined is if he's a LeBron/Durant type, where they understand that their teams are better off if they can sign him outright and then force them to do AD/Harden type trades where they mortgage the future.

The players have gotten savvier; if their goal is to win. The king showed them the blueprint.

KD/Lebron/Kawhi era is nearing the end though given their respective ages and injury history. Those are basically the only three players that have been doing this super team stuff. It will be really interesting to see if the new generation will do the same. It's still early but I can't see guys like Booker, Giannis, Jokic and Young doing the same. I do however, see Doncic possibly doing something if the Mavs continue to surround him with mediocre level talent. But that's about it.

I think it just comes down to winning. Guys won't have any issues pulling a Tim Duncan if they're actually contenders and winning 'chips

I outlined the Denver possibility, you brought up the Dallas issues. The Phoenix situation could fall apart as soon as CP3 retires.

This does bring up the other shoe that tends to drop when players do move on. If we get Jokic, there's a pretty big chance he requests to play with a certain guy and then there goes Siakam and OG. Whole new team.

[links135]

All of FVV's 3 pointers last night were basically off ball screens.

https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?ContextMeasure=FG3M&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=28800&GameID=0022100329&PlayerID=1627832&RangeType=0&Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612761&flag=3&sct=plot&section=game

Yes long link, but it has all of FVV's 3's last night in there. One was from a kickout from Siakam, but instead of trying to pull-up off a PNR, it was quite refreshing to see him come off screens which I SWEAR was super rare all season, at least this much. It also worked really really well, i've been saying lately the dude is one of the best in the league at catch and shoot 3's.

So is this a new normal that opens things up and stops him from pounding the rock? I really do like it more than what would happen before.

Dribble past half with 16.5 left on the clock, see if a PNR happens which it doesn't, either take a low % pullup or try to force a drive.

As much as I don't think he's a true PG because he isn't a great finisher so he can't kick it out that well when driving, as well as his shorter height limiting his passing lanes, this new development is something I really enjoyed watching last night.

[bluerap23]

His three point shooting brings down his overall shooting percentage. Only thing wrong with lowry's game is the three.

I would say its in the unlikely to incredibly unlikely range that lowry forgot or lost the ability to hit the nba three at a higher rate than 30%. I pointed this out many times the last time lowry started out poorly from three, but whatever.

Kyle's FTAs are also way down (5.9 in 19/20; 3.5 in 20/21; 2.1 so far this year) and he's now getting full on targeted on defense. He's leading the Heat in defended FGAs because of this and is giving up a whopping +7.7% above expected FG%.

It's more than just his three ball. Kyle is declining while Fred is ascending. Fred is very clearly the better player at this stage.

That Lowry contract was a huge mistake by Miami. He MIGHT be worth that money this year....where the heat don't really have a chance at a chip anyways. Now they're looking at two extremely inefficient contracts for the next few years (Duncan and Lowry). Imo....they totally blew this iteration of their team.

You can't afford to pay a guy close to 30 Milly if he only scores 10 ppg on inefficient shooting. Kyle is a role player now. Brings intangibles sure. They're not worth 30 Milly of your cap for the next 3 seasons.

Butler's contract may also become problematic

[bluerap23]

It's the same as Giannis I assume. He has the ability to sign the extension a year before FA. We'll know by then if he's available. He may drag it out (it's how we lost Ibaka and Gasol), and he could still sign with Denver for the 5 year during the FA period too if he's looking at suitors I believe.

Unless he loses a leg, players of Jokic's caliber aren't at risk of not getting the bag.

What's still to be determined is if he's a LeBron/Durant type, where they understand that their teams are better off if they can sign him outright and then force them to do AD/Harden type trades where they mortgage the future.

The players have gotten savvier; if their goal is to win. The king showed them the blueprint.

KD/Lebron/Kawhi era is nearing the end though given their respective ages and injury history. Those are basically the only three players that have been doing this super team stuff. It will be really interesting to see if the new generation will do the same. It's still early but I can't see guys like Booker, Giannis, Jokic and Young doing the same. I do however, see Doncic possibly doing something if the Mavs continue to surround him with mediocre level talent. But that's about it.

I think it just comes down to winning. Guys won't have any issues pulling a Tim Duncan if they're actually contenders and winning 'chips

I outlined the Denver possibility, you brought up the Dallas issues. The Phoenix situation could fall apart as soon as CP3 retires.

This does bring up the other shoe that tends to drop when players do move on. If we get Jokic, there's a pretty big chance he requests to play with a certain guy and then there goes Siakam and OG. Whole new team.

Bring on the Scottie era #raptor4life

[VanWest82]

All of FVV's 3 pointers last night were basically off ball screens.

https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?ContextMeasure=FG3M&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=28800&GameID=0022100329&PlayerID=1627832&RangeType=0&Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612761&flag=3&sct=plot&section=game

Yes long link, but it has all of FVV's 3's last night in there. One was from a kickout from Siakam, but instead of trying to pull-up off a PNR, it was quite refreshing to see him come off screens which I SWEAR was super rare all season, at least this much. It also worked really really well, i've been saying lately the dude is one of the best in the league at catch and shoot 3's.

So is this a new normal that opens things up and stops him from pounding the rock? I really do like it more than what would happen before.

Dribble past half with 16.5 left on the clock, see if a PNR happens which it doesn't, either take a low % pullup or try to force a drive.

As much as I don't think he's a true PG because he isn't a great finisher so he can't kick it out that well when driving, as well as his shorter height limiting his passing lanes, this new development is something I really enjoyed watching last night.

Virtually every metric we have tells us that Fred is a PG who helps our drive and kick game. This is illustrated by our 3FGA% being by far the lowest when Fred is on the bench to say nothing of our putrid ORTG.

We've turned to running Fred off ball screens to get shots because teams are doubling and trapping him, and as Siakam pointed out post game vs. Grizzlies, guys don't know where to be or what to do when that happens.

Also, he had an off-the-dribble three that got changed to a two vs. Bucks because his toe was on the line. 40% of Fred's threes this year have been UAST. He's made 50% of his pull up twos and is shooting 69% from MR lol (all off the dribble). On threes where he takes 3+ dribbles he's shooting 36.67%.

Fred has a history of over-dribbling but part of the reason he's doing it this year is because seemingly no one else on the team can consistently create good shots for others. Also, we play a lot of young guys who don't know what they're doing half the time. Slowing the game down allows them to get their bearings so we can actually run plays and have some semblance of structure.

[links135]

All of FVV's 3 pointers last night were basically off ball screens.

https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?ContextMeasure=FG3M&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=28800&GameID=0022100329&PlayerID=1627832&RangeType=0&Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612761&flag=3&sct=plot&section=game

Yes long link, but it has all of FVV's 3's last night in there. One was from a kickout from Siakam, but instead of trying to pull-up off a PNR, it was quite refreshing to see him come off screens which I SWEAR was super rare all season, at least this much. It also worked really really well, i've been saying lately the dude is one of the best in the league at catch and shoot 3's.

So is this a new normal that opens things up and stops him from pounding the rock? I really do like it more than what would happen before.

Dribble past half with 16.5 left on the clock, see if a PNR happens which it doesn't, either take a low % pullup or try to force a drive.

As much as I don't think he's a true PG because he isn't a great finisher so he can't kick it out that well when driving, as well as his shorter height limiting his passing lanes, this new development is something I really enjoyed watching last night.

Virtually every metric we have tells us that Fred is a PG who helps our drive and kick game. This is illustrated by our 3FGA% being by far the lowest when Fred is on the bench to say nothing of our putrid ORTG.

We've turned to running Fred off ball screens to get shots because teams are doubling and trapping him, and as Siakam pointed out post game vs. Grizzlies, guys don't know where to be or what to do when that happens.

Also, he had an off-the-dribble three that got changed to a two vs. Bucks because his toe was on the line. 40% of Fred's threes this year have been UAST. He's made 50% of his pull up twos and is shooting 69% from MR lol (all off the dribble). On threes where he takes 3+ dribbles he's shooting 36.67%.

Fred has a history of over-dribbling but part of the reason he's doing it this year is because seemingly no one else on the team can consistently create good shots for others. Also, we play a lot of young guys who don't know what they're doing half the time. Slowing the game down allows them to get their bearings so we can actually run plays and have some semblance of structure.

His pullup 3 point % is literally 31%. His pullups from 2 is really good at 50%, but his catch and shoot 3's are at 48%

He's also taking more pullup 3's this season than catch and shoot.

When he's off the court we don't really have any good 3 point shooters, even Svi is now shooting 32.9%. Boucher has been horrible from 3.

I've also posted stats where the only guy who shoots well from 3 from passes from FVV is Svi.

My point is that running him off screens helps create those shots because they can't trap him when he does that.

When Barnes sits there's still OG, Siakam and Svi. When Precious sits there's Birch, when GTJ sits there's the wings like when Barnes sits, when FVV sits we have Banton or Flynn, the latter who's been shooting pretty poorly lately and Banton clearly isn't a big time 3 point threat.

But seriously, 31% vs 48%. You choose.

[VanWest82]

His pullup 3 point % is literally 31%. His pullups from 2 is really good at 50%, but his catch and shoot 3's are at 48%

He's also taking more pullup 3's this season than catch and shoot.

When he's off the court we don't really have any good 3 point shooters, even Svi is now shooting 32.9%. Boucher has been horrible from 3.

I've also posted stats where the only guy who shoots well from 3 from passes from FVV is Svi.

My point is that running him off screens helps create those shots because they can't trap him when he does that.

When Barnes sits there's still OG, Siakam and Svi. When Precious sits there's Birch, when GTJ sits there's the wings like when Barnes sits, when FVV sits we have Banton or Flynn, the latter who's been shooting pretty poorly lately and Banton clearly isn't a big time 3 point threat.

But seriously, 31% vs 48%. You choose.

I don't need to choose and neither should Raptors. It isn't binary.

Moving Fred off ball works well as a change of pace and to counter specific defenses. But we don't have other good shot creators, and when it came down to winning time last night the ball was in Fred's hands the majority of the time because he's the only guy on the team who consistently breaks his man down off the bounce to create an advantage.

If we had a Draymond who could read the floor in the short roll then I'd say sure let's move Fred into more of a Steph role. But we don't. And we also don't have high IQ players to execute the kind of motion offense they run.

It's been said before but Fred is 12th in NBA in potential assists. It doesn't matter that guys aren't shooting well off his passes. The point is he's getting it to them wide open in something resembling an NBA offense.

You pointing out that we have no capable ball handlers to back up Fred isn't helping your point that we should also take the ball out of his hands. So now we're left with no ball handlers? Only guys who can't shoot? We've seen how that plays out with Banton. defenses sag off and we dribble into bad passes, bad shots, or turnovers.

[bluerap23]

Read the below and then imagine Fred as the lead guard on a more experienced team with an elite scorer beside him.

[raptorforlife88]

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