Official Play-in Thread - Our Play-in Destiny is in our Hands

[YogurtProducer]

Doesn't sound like enough of a sample size to draw any conclusions.

BBQ + Poeltl + any 5th player has appeared in 10 games, with a -5.0NRTG.

Those games were:

Game 1 (IQ left early injured)
Game 34 thru 39 (IQ's first 6 games in 3 months)
Game 48 to 50 (IQ played 18mpg in these 3 games)

Not only is the sample small, the sample is literally non existent.


On the other hand, lineups with RJ/Barnes/Poeltl have a +1.2NRTG in 25 games. That is despite their most common "4th" partner being Dick and there is a -11.1NRTG there.

Long story short, next season when we want to win, we start Agbaji/JKW/2025 1st instead of Dick.

Sounds great, and that is what we said last year as well, only played 4 games, and people here thought they would be a playoff team?

I don't understand your point?

They STILL haven't played together, so how can you even use any of their limited time together as evidence they cant work together?

In 2023/24 Barnes/Poeltl got hurt and the 4 barely played. This year IQ missed essentially the entire year and they barely played together.

But hey, I am sure your conclusions drawn on 14 games is sufficient. It usually doesn't take teams anytime at all to form chemistry, right?

[tdotrep2]

just bite the damn bullet and get a top pick ffs, this team w/ a top pick and ingram next year is a great team. The pick could also be tradable in a package deal with iq or rj to get a better player.

[Duffman100]

BBQ + Poeltl + any 5th player has appeared in 10 games, with a -5.0NRTG.

Those games were:

Game 1 (IQ left early injured)
Game 34 thru 39 (IQ's first 6 games in 3 months)
Game 48 to 50 (IQ played 18mpg in these 3 games)

Not only is the sample small, the sample is literally non existent.


On the other hand, lineups with RJ/Barnes/Poeltl have a +1.2NRTG in 25 games. That is despite their most common "4th" partner being Dick and there is a -11.1NRTG there.

Long story short, next season when we want to win, we start Agbaji/JKW/2025 1st instead of Dick.

Sounds great, and that is what we said last year as well, only played 4 games, and people here thought they would be a playoff team?

I don't understand your point?

They STILL haven't played together, so how can you even use any of their limited time together as evidence they cant work together?

In 2023/24 Barnes/Poeltl got hurt and the 4 barely played. This year IQ missed essentially the entire year and they barely played together.

But hey, I am sure your conclusions drawn on 14 games is sufficient. It usually doesn't take teams anytime at all to form chemistry, right?

Seems like the first point was that they weren't that good together. When people pointed out the sample size was small, he's pivoting to "well they're all injured".

Which is fine, legit worry, but a major goalpost move

[YogurtProducer]

Sounds great, and that is what we said last year as well, only played 4 games, and people here thought they would be a playoff team?

I don't understand your point?

They STILL haven't played together, so how can you even use any of their limited time together as evidence they cant work together?

In 2023/24 Barnes/Poeltl got hurt and the 4 barely played. This year IQ missed essentially the entire year and they barely played together.

But hey, I am sure your conclusions drawn on 14 games is sufficient. It usually doesn't take teams anytime at all to form chemistry, right?

Seems like the first point was that they weren't that good together. When people pointed out the sample size was small, he's pivoting to "well they're all injured".

Which is fine, legit worry, but a major goalpost move

Yeah the injury thing is legit, but the fact it has been different guys pretty much every time on pretty much freak injuries limits my concern. It is not like 3 of them suffered non-contact knee injuries that are prone to re-occur.

[LBJKB24MJ23]

i get the emotions of 'going for it' but salary wise, this team is pretty much capped the next few years with the additon of Barnes max salary and Ingram's extension.

if the Raptors are going to be playoff/conference finals contenders in the next 3-4 years, for argument and expectations sake, this upcoming draft is important to the Raptors in getting a controllable and high end talent that will play into the salary cap and extend the continous competitive window. outside of a high draft pick, this upcoming draft (if the raptors make the play-in) will be middle of the draft + future mid to low draft (15- 20s) slots ( > 2025) + 2nds, to build around this core.

outside of trades, top tier stars don't come to Toronto as far as we know. this is one draft where if we play the cards right, another potential star player could be drafted to go with the current core - from what we know of the top 5 picks.

[Scase]

Lets go for it boys, play in and the 10th pick, come on, losing is bad for culture. Think about all the play in experience, I can't believe how many people are ready to give up, there's still a chance! Remember, the heat were the 8th seed and they made it to the finals!

So many quitters in this thread, real fans don't cheer for losses.

The 10th pick isn't any worse than a top 3 pick anyways, not when we have our drafting record. Besides, the Hawks got the first pick as a play in team, so it's not a waste anyways, we probably get the 1st OA. You guys worry too much.

Enough, offer something of value.

Apparently being positive is worthy of a forum warning, top tier moderation.

[vini_vidi_vici]

I mean, it's Gradey in that 5th spot, and even that sample is over a total of 6 games. Basically zero sample with any other lineups with those 4, which is criminal. Ingram is a pretty big upgrade over Gradey on both ends, for all his imperfections.

Or throw in Abaji / Shead for defense, hell even Walter.

I still have faith in Dick and like his game. But if you sort our lineups by DRTG, you'll see a common denominator.
https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced?CF=MIN*G*20&TeamID=1610612761&dir=D&slug=advanced&sort=DEF_RATING

Yeah, the additional variants that have even a few minutes of sample (meaningless but at least they tried it) have been: Boucher in for Gradey (what?), Brown in for Gradey (sure, but why?), and Ochai in for Gradey - which I would have thought is the obvious win-games starting lineup, and they've used for a total of THREE MINUTES. Not a single second of Davion (who I also thought could potentially start at the 2 heading into the season), Shead or Walter.

They are definitely doing some subtle tanking stuff, and lineup inefficiencies like this scuttling the minutes our best players are playing together is one example of it. Lineups with none of the core on the court is something else we've done a lot of even when relatively healthy, another way to lose minutes easily. Though of late it's been harder to come by those minutes with all three of BBQ available.

That's the sort of tanking stuff we can expect, not just sitting guys.

Aside from having the NBA/NBAPA up our ass for sitting healthy players who want to play, and stripping all assets, I dont see how anyone can argue we arent trying to "tank".

Players playing hard in spite of obstacles isnt some indictment on management not trying.

[Duffman100]

Lets go for it boys, play in and the 10th pick, come on, losing is bad for culture. Think about all the play in experience, I can't believe how many people are ready to give up, there's still a chance! Remember, the heat were the 8th seed and they made it to the finals!

So many quitters in this thread, real fans don't cheer for losses.

The 10th pick isn't any worse than a top 3 pick anyways, not when we have our drafting record. Besides, the Hawks got the first pick as a play in team, so it's not a waste anyways, we probably get the 1st OA. You guys worry too much.

Enough, offer something of value.

Apparently being positive is worthy of a forum warning, top tier moderation.

Yeah you're getting more time off. Learn how to contribute something to this forum other than baiting or negativity.

[Dalek]

If Poeltl comes back and even if he plays every other day we will win games. I think playing IQ, Scottie and RJ as much as possible is critical to see if they can win together and have chemistry.

Overall, I am just happy to see the young players and core play together and have good moments. I wanted to tank the year, but these guys play too hard and the fans are still behind them. I am more interested in these high level match-ups with teams like Boston, Indiana, Cleveland and New York, since we know we can beat average to bad teams, but I want to see how we do against playoff teams with a healthier roster and guys in rhythm.

The next five will decide for me if the play-in is worth it because these will be a good battle.
Boston
Indiana
Chicago
Orlando
Orlando

If we come out with a winning record they should make a play-in push because the next 7 are against teams under .500. They might end up 10-2 during this stretch which could make Toronto 28-41 which is 10 seed range.

[Indeed]

I don't understand your point?

They STILL haven't played together, so how can you even use any of their limited time together as evidence they cant work together?

In 2023/24 Barnes/Poeltl got hurt and the 4 barely played. This year IQ missed essentially the entire year and they barely played together.

But hey, I am sure your conclusions drawn on 14 games is sufficient. It usually doesn't take teams anytime at all to form chemistry, right?

Seems like the first point was that they weren't that good together. When people pointed out the sample size was small, he's pivoting to "well they're all injured".

Which is fine, legit worry, but a major goalpost move

Yeah the injury thing is legit, but the fact it has been different guys pretty much every time on pretty much freak injuries limits my concern. It is not like 3 of them suffered non-contact knee injuries that are prone to re-occur.

Sounds like we are the only team with major injuries that prevent us from being good, even we split into 4 or 5 players, instead of like some other teams with just 2 or 3.

Personally, I don't buy that. If you have 3 of your 4 core healthy, you shouldn't be that bad. But you can have your opinion.

[Thaddy]

You think this team has a chance against the defending champs?

They don't but if we play a good game against them today it would signify that we can at least be competitive against them. A 7 game series against the Celtics where we lose would be a strong way to end the season. We would still come in the following season with Ingram, a mid first, and a decent 2nd. We would strengthen our rotation while adding young depth. I would hope that the late season run would raise the value of our assets so we could make another trade for a good C. If we have strong C play for 48 minutes a game and a good forward rotation, along with development from the 7th to 11th guys on the roster we would be a good regular season team next year and better than the 6th seed Pistons.

[djsunyc]

blake mentioned this the other day on his pod - orlando robinson only has 19 nba games left as a 2 way player. they would have to convert him to a regular contract if they want him to play more than that. probably a buyout of pj tucker if they go that route.

[Thaddy]

Lets go for it boys, play in and the 10th pick, come on, losing is bad for culture. Think about all the play in experience, I can't believe how many people are ready to give up, there's still a chance! Remember, the heat were the 8th seed and they made it to the finals!

So many quitters in this thread, real fans don't cheer for losses.

The 10th pick isn't any worse than a top 3 pick anyways, not when we have our drafting record. Besides, the Hawks got the first pick as a play in team, so it's not a waste anyways, we probably get the 1st OA. You guys worry too much.

Enough, offer something of value.

Apparently being positive is worthy of a forum warning, top tier moderation.

Yeah you're getting more time off. Learn how to contribute something to this forum other than baiting or negativity.

The bright side is we're in a win-win situation. If we make the play in there's a strong chance of getting into the playoffs. We would get decimated by the Cavs due to a lack of size in our front court. But if it's against the C's I think we have a solid shot of giving them hell and taking it to 7 games. Although we'd ultimately lose it would be an experience Barnes, Barrett, Walter, Dick, Mogbo, Shead, Agbaji, and every player on our team could build on top of. Integrating Ingram late into the season would be tough but it's possible, Barnes won't have an issue deferring to him and Barrett was great as a third option last year before Siakam was traded. Since these guys all played with Siakam it wouldn't be anything new for them.

The draft is always a crapshoot. We're seeing a few prospects that a lot of us like but drafting them in the top 10 would be a reach. In the mid first round Fleming, Wolf, Fears, Maluach, and others look like good picks. We don't have any top end superstars on our team and finding one late in the lottery or in the mid first is tough. But we aren't the right environment to develop that kind of prospect either. We're at a stage where Barnes is going to be our 4th option. If we hypothetically got Bailey or another premium scorer who's shots does he take? It might be more beneficial for us to draft a high end role player like OG and then develop him over the years into a scoring option.

If we end up drafting 15th to 17th and we take Fleming, or better yet Wolf we would have essentially replaced Olynyk for free. The 2nd round has plenty of gems too. We could find a third string PG we can develop through our GLeague.

Poeltl / Wolf
Barnes / Mogbo
Ingram / Agbaji
Barrett / Dick
IQ / Shead

Wolf and Mogbo would be a good offense/defense pairing, then having Wolf with Dick and Shead should lead to an above average NBA offense. I would double down and take another C prospect like one of the Ivisics in the 2nd round and develop him to be a stretch C once Poeltl ages out. I still think a stretch C is the best type of player we could add. It would open up the lanes for Barnes and Ingram to go from the mid range to more interior scoring, same goes for Barrett.

[dohboy_24]

Considering the remaining schedule for the Raptors and the other teams in the 4-10 range of the draft, the best record we could probably have to end the season would be 36 wins while the worst record we could probably end up with would be just 23 wins.

We'd have to go 18-7 (36 wins) or 5-20 (23 wins) over the course of the rest of the season to end up with such outcomes, but given those ranges we can finish somewhere between being tied for the 5th worst record and being tied for the 9th worst record by the time the season ends and our final draft odds are set.

Charlotte Hornets
14-42 (4th worst)

Games Remaining: 26
Winnable Games (13):

Mar 1 vs Washington
Mar 8 vs Brooklyn
Mar 10 @ Miami
Mar 12 @ Atlanta
Mar 14 @ San Antonio
Mar 18 vs Atlanta
Mar 23 @ Miami
Mar 28 @ Toronto
Mar 30 @ New Orleans
Mar 31 vs Utah
Apr 4 vs Sacramento
Apr 6 vs Chicago
Apr 9 @ Toronto

Charlotte wins 100% of its winnable games: 27-55
Charlotte wins 75% of its winnable games: 24-58
Charlotte wins 50% of its winnable games: 21-61
Charlotte wins 25% of its winnable games: 17-65

Toronto Raptors
18-39 (5th worst)

Games Remaining: 25
Winnable Games (18):

Feb 28 @ Chicago
Mar 7 vs Utah
Mar 8 vs Washington
Mar 10 vs Washington
Mar 12 vs Philadelphia
Mar 14 @ Utah
Mar 16 @ Portland
Mar 17 @ Phoenix
Mar 23 vs San Antonio
Mar 24 @ Washington
Mar 26 @ Brooklyn
Mar 28 vs Charlotte
Mar 30 @ Philadelphia
Apr 1 @ Chicago
Apr 3 vs Portland
Apr 6 @ Brooklyn
Apr 9 vs Charlotte
Apr 13 @ San Antonio

Toronto wins 100% of its winnable games: 36-46
Toronto wins 75% of its winnable games: 31-51
Toronto wins 50% of its winnable games: 27-55
Toronto wins 25% of its winnable games: 23-59

Philadelphia 76ers
20-37 (6th worst)

Games Remaining: 25
Winnable Games (14):

Mar 3 vs Portland
Mar 9 vs Utah
Mar 10 @ Atlanta
Mar 12 @ Toronto
Mar 21 @ San Antonio
Mar 23 @ Atlanta
Mar 24 @ New Orleans
Mar 26 vs Washington
Mar 29 vs Miami
Mar 30 vs Toronto
Apr 7 @ Miami
Apr 9 @ Washington
Apr 11 vs Atlanta
Apr 13 vs Chicago

Philadelphia wins 100% of its winnable games: 34-48
Philadelphia wins 75% of its winnable games: 30-52
Philadelphia wins 50% of its winnable games: 27-55
Philadelphia wins 25% of its winnable games: 23-59

Brooklyn Nets
21-36 (7th worst)

Games Remaining: 25
Winnable Games (10):

Feb 28 vs Portland
Mar 4 @ San Antonio
Mar 8 @ Charlotte
Mar 13 @ Chicago
Mar 16 vs Atlanta
Mar 26 vs Toronto
Mar 29 @ Washington
Apr 6 vs Toronto
Apr 8 vs New Orleans
Apr 10 vs Atlanta

Brooklyn wins 100% of its winnable games: 31-51
Brooklyn wins 75% of its winnable games: 28-54
Brooklyn wins 50% of its winnable games: 26-56
Brooklyn wins 25% of its winnable games: 24-58

Chicago Bulls
23-35 (8th worst)

Games Remaining: 24
Winnable Games (12):

Feb 28 vs Toronto
Mar 8 @ Miami
Mar 13 vs Brooklyn
Mar 17 @ Utah
Mar 19 @ Phoenix
Mar 20 @ Sacramento
Apr 1 vs Toronto
Apr 4 vs Portland
Apr 6 @ Charlotte
Apr 9 vs Miami
Apr 11 vs Washington
Apr 13 @ Philadelphia

Chicago wins 100% of its winnable games: 35-47
Chicago wins 75% of its winnable games: 31-51
Chicago wins 50% of its winnable games: 29-53
Chicago wins 25% of its winnable games: 26-56

Portland Trailblazers
25-33 (9th worst)

Games Remaining: 24
Winnable Games (11):

Feb 26 @ Washington
Feb 28 @ Brooklyn
Mar 3 @ Philadelphia
Mar 16 vs Toronto
Mar 17 vs Washington
Mar 27 @ Sacramento
Apr 1 @ Atlanta
Apr 3 @ Toronto
Apr 4 @ Chicago
Apr 6 vs San Antonio
Apr 9 @ Utah

Portland wins 100% of its winnable games: 36-46
Portland wins 75% of its winnable games: 33-49
Portland wins 50% of its winnable games: 30-52
Portland wins 25% of its winnable games: 28-54

San Antonio Spurs
24-31 (10th worst)

Games Remaining: 27
Winnable Games (10):

Feb 25 @ New Orleans
Mar 4 vs Brooklyn
Mar 7 @ Sacramento
Mar 14 vs Charlotte
Mar 15 vs New Orleans
Mar 21 vs Philadelphia
Mar 23 @ Toronto
Apr 6 @ Portland
Apr 11 @ Phoenix
Apr 13 vs Toronto

San Antonio wins 100% of its winnable games: 34-48
San Antonio wins 75% of its winnable games: 32-50
San Antonio wins 50% of its winnable games: 29-53
San Antonio wins 25% of its winnable games: 27-55

Even though it's an outcome that would be impossible to actually achieve, if all of these teams won 100% of their winnable games the final draft odds would be:

Charlotte Hornets: 27-55 (4th worst)
Brooklyn Nets: 31-51 (5th worst)
San Antonio Spurs: 34-58 (6th worst - tie)
Philadelphia 76ers: 34-58 (6th worst - tie)
Chicago Bulls: 35-47 (8th worst)
Toronto Raptors: 36-46 (9th worst - tie)
Portland Trailblazers: 36-46 (9th worst - tie)

If all of these teams won 75% of their winnable games, the final draft odds would be:

Charlotte Hornets: 24-58 (4th worst)
Brooklyn Nets: 28-54 (5th worst)
Philadelphia 76ers: 30-52 (6th worst)
Toronto Raptors: 31-51 (7th worst - tied)
Chicago Bulls: 31-51 (7th worst - tied)
San Antonio Spurs: 32-50 (9th worst)
Portland Trailblazers: 33-49 (10th worst)

If all of these teams won 50% of their winnable games, the final draft odds would be:

Charlotte Hornets: 21-61 (4th worst)
Brooklyn Nets: 26-56 (5th worst)
Philadelphia 76ers: 27-55 (6th worst - tied)
Toronto Raptors: 27-55 (6th worst - tied)
Chicago Bulls: 29-53 (8th worst - tied)
San Antonio Spurs: 29-53 (8th worst - tied)
Portland Trailblazers: 30-52 (10th worst)

If all of these teams won 25% of their winnable games, the final draft odds would be:

Charlotte Hornets: 17-65 (4th worst)
Philadelphia 76ers: 23-59 (5th worst - tied)
Toronto Raptors: 23-59 (5th worst - tied)
Brooklyn Nets: 24-58 (7th worst)
Chicago Bulls: 26-56 (8th worst)
San Antonio Spurs: 27-55 (9th worst)
Portland Trailblazers: 28-54 (10th worst)

Unless we win more than 75% of our 18 winnable games and/or end the season with a record of at least 12 wins and 13 losses, we will probably end up with less than 30 wins and the 5th or 6th worst odds in the draft.

[YogurtProducer]

Seems like the first point was that they weren't that good together. When people pointed out the sample size was small, he's pivoting to "well they're all injured".

Which is fine, legit worry, but a major goalpost move

Yeah the injury thing is legit, but the fact it has been different guys pretty much every time on pretty much freak injuries limits my concern. It is not like 3 of them suffered non-contact knee injuries that are prone to re-occur.

Personally, I don't buy that. If you have 3 of your 4 core healthy, you shouldn't be that bad. But you can have your opinion.

IQ/RJ/Barnes = 9 games
IQ/RJ/Poeltl = 8 games
IQ/Barnes/Poeltl = 10 games
RJ/Barnes/Poeltl = 25 games

Thats how many games 3 of our core 4 have played. All 4 of them have played together 6 times (Honestly, not sure how I got "10" before, because they've only played togther 6 times).

So really we have only had 3 of our core 4 for maybe 30 games this entire year (and with RJ/Barnes/Jak we are .500 in those games, most without IQ). Not to mention, for a significant chunk of that we also were missing Brown and Olynyk who proved to be a bigger deal than people wanted to admit considering we went 8-2 in the only stretch of relative ealth we had all season.

Sounds like we are the only team with major injuries that prevent us from being good, even we split into 4 or 5 players, instead of like some other teams with just 2 or 3

Nope, literally a phenomenon that affects all NBA teams. Its why the Pelicans are second last. Or why Philly has 20 wins. Or why Charlotte has 14. Or why Miami fell off a cliff once the Jimmy fiasco began and he missed a bunch of games.

Some teams have the depth to overcome it (Memphis comes to mind), but most teams would falter in our situation. Our current core has BARELY played.

IQ - 39 missed games (and lots of these restricted minute)
RJ - 13 missed games
Barnes - 13 missed games
Jakob - 13 missed games

And then Ingram has played a grand total of 0 games, and the players that got traded for him missed a combined 60 games as well.

IDK why some posters are so hesitant to admit injuries matter

[Indeed]

Yeah the injury thing is legit, but the fact it has been different guys pretty much every time on pretty much freak injuries limits my concern. It is not like 3 of them suffered non-contact knee injuries that are prone to re-occur.

Personally, I don't buy that. If you have 3 of your 4 core healthy, you shouldn't be that bad. But you can have your opinion.

IQ/RJ/Barnes = 9 games
IQ/RJ/Poeltl = 8 games
IQ/Barnes/Poeltl = 10 games
RJ/Barnes/Poeltl = 25 games

Thats how many games 3 of our core 4 have played. All 4 of them have played together 6 times (Honestly, not sure how I got "10" before, because they've only played togther 6 times).

So really we have only had 3 of our core 4 for maybe 30 games this entire year (and with RJ/Barnes/Jak we are .500 in those games, most without IQ). Not to mention, for a significant chunk of that we also were missing Brown and Olynyk who proved to be a bigger deal than people wanted to admit considering we went 8-2 in the only stretch of relative ealth we had all season.

Sounds like we are the only team with major injuries that prevent us from being good, even we split into 4 or 5 players, instead of like some other teams with just 2 or 3

Nope, literally a phenomenon that affects all NBA teams. Its why the Pelicans are second last. Or why Philly has 20 wins. Or why Charlotte has 14. Or why Miami fell off a cliff once the Jimmy fiasco began and he missed a bunch of games.

Some teams have the depth to overcome it (Memphis comes to mind), but most teams would falter in our situation. Our current core has BARELY played.

IQ - 39 missed games (and lots of these restricted minute)
RJ - 13 missed games
Barnes - 13 missed games
Jakob - 13 missed games

And then Ingram has played a grand total of 0 games, and the players that got traded for him missed a combined 60 games as well.

IDK why some posters are so hesitant to admit injuries matter

Sure, out of 8 or 9 games together without Ingram, they can only win 1 out of them each? The only reason our record is better was due to the 5 games winning streak just before the trade deadline, where it was Boucher performing very well, who isn't even our core.

And how does our ORtg and DRtg doing? Bottom 5? Having all of them healthy would raise it to average?
Let's be realistic, even all of them are healthy, are ORtg and DRtg aren't going to be better than in the middle of the league. Adding Ingram may just be somewhat in the middle, we are hardly a top 6 team next year even without injury.

[LBJKB24MJ23]

i mean with the remaining schedule its possible. but it looks like Poetlt could be out for extended periods of time, Ingram - who knows when he is coming back. and Barnes is playing injured or not 100%, supposedly.

but an easy schedule, this team could go on a run.

[YogurtProducer]

Personally, I don't buy that. If you have 3 of your 4 core healthy, you shouldn't be that bad. But you can have your opinion.

IQ/RJ/Barnes = 9 games
IQ/RJ/Poeltl = 8 games
IQ/Barnes/Poeltl = 10 games
RJ/Barnes/Poeltl = 25 games

Thats how many games 3 of our core 4 have played. All 4 of them have played together 6 times (Honestly, not sure how I got "10" before, because they've only played togther 6 times).

So really we have only had 3 of our core 4 for maybe 30 games this entire year (and with RJ/Barnes/Jak we are .500 in those games, most without IQ). Not to mention, for a significant chunk of that we also were missing Brown and Olynyk who proved to be a bigger deal than people wanted to admit considering we went 8-2 in the only stretch of relative ealth we had all season.

Sounds like we are the only team with major injuries that prevent us from being good, even we split into 4 or 5 players, instead of like some other teams with just 2 or 3

Nope, literally a phenomenon that affects all NBA teams. Its why the Pelicans are second last. Or why Philly has 20 wins. Or why Charlotte has 14. Or why Miami fell off a cliff once the Jimmy fiasco began and he missed a bunch of games.

Some teams have the depth to overcome it (Memphis comes to mind), but most teams would falter in our situation. Our current core has BARELY played.

IQ - 39 missed games (and lots of these restricted minute)
RJ - 13 missed games
Barnes - 13 missed games
Jakob - 13 missed games

And then Ingram has played a grand total of 0 games, and the players that got traded for him missed a combined 60 games as well.

IDK why some posters are so hesitant to admit injuries matter

Sure, out of 8 or 9 games together without Ingram, they can only win 1 out of them each? The only reason our record is better was due to the 5 games winning streak just before the trade deadline, where it was Boucher performing very well, who isn't even our core.

And how does our ORtg and DRtg doing? Bottom 5? Having all of them healthy would raise it to average?
Let's be realistic, even all of them are healthy, are ORtg and DRtg aren't going to be better than in the middle of the league. Adding Ingram may just be somewhat in the middle, we are hardly a top 6 team next year even without injury.

8 or 9 games without Ingram? Ingram has "officially" been with us for 6 games. Of those 6 games Poeltl has played 0. RJ has played 3.

Like what the **** are you even talking about anymore? I honest to god don't even know what you are arguing other than just ranting and just being fundamentally wrong about every piece of evidence you are bringing forward.

Here is the fact of the matter:

We have seen our current core play together for a whomping 0 minutes.
Even before the Ingram trade, we saw the IQ/Barnes/Poeltl/Barrett "core" play like 5 full games.
In addition to those 4 ^, we had significant injuries to our bench which made the issue worse than usual.
None of your posts are considering that we also are adding a top prospect from this draft.

Long story short - you have no clue how our team will look. We are 18-39, and essentially we are adding a (hopefully) healthy Quickley and Ingram, and a top 5-10 pick to our roster. How you possibly are capping that as "middle of the league" is mind boggling considering the only moderately healthy stretch this team had was quite successful.

Contender? No. But middle of the pack celling? Also no.

[dohboy_24]

Current Record: 18-39
Home games: 13-18 (41.9% win rate)
Away games: 5-21 (19.2% win rate)

Games remaining: 25
Home games: 10
Away games: 15

To make the play-in tournament we will have to win more than 30 games. To win more than 30 games, we will have to win more than 50% of our remaining games.

If the past 3 seasons are any indication, we will have to win closer to 35 games to end up with the 10th worst record in the Eastern Conference:

2023-24
Atlanta Hawks 36-46
Golden State 46-36

2022-2023
Oklahoma City 40-42
Chicago Bulls 40-42

2021-22
Charlotte Hornets 43-39
San Antonio 34-48

To finish the season with more than 30 wins, we will probably have to win all of our home games against winnable teams (8) and end the season with a home record of at least 8 wins and 2 losses (80% win rate) - an outcome that is 2x greater than our win rate at home so far this season.

In addition, we will probably have to win least half of our road games against winnable teams (5) and end the season with an away record of at least 5 wins and 10 losses - an outcome that is 2x greater than our current win rate on the road this season.

To end the season with at least 35 wins, we will have to go 17-8 down the stretch and win 68% of our remaining games - an outcome that is just more than double our current win rate of 32%

How do you propose we are going to 2x out-perform our home game win rate, our away game win rate, and our win rate for the entire season to be able to make the play-in tournament during these next 25 games?

[Indeed]

IQ/RJ/Barnes = 9 games
IQ/RJ/Poeltl = 8 games
IQ/Barnes/Poeltl = 10 games
RJ/Barnes/Poeltl = 25 games

Thats how many games 3 of our core 4 have played. All 4 of them have played together 6 times (Honestly, not sure how I got "10" before, because they've only played togther 6 times).

So really we have only had 3 of our core 4 for maybe 30 games this entire year (and with RJ/Barnes/Jak we are .500 in those games, most without IQ). Not to mention, for a significant chunk of that we also were missing Brown and Olynyk who proved to be a bigger deal than people wanted to admit considering we went 8-2 in the only stretch of relative ealth we had all season.

Nope, literally a phenomenon that affects all NBA teams. Its why the Pelicans are second last. Or why Philly has 20 wins. Or why Charlotte has 14. Or why Miami fell off a cliff once the Jimmy fiasco began and he missed a bunch of games.

Some teams have the depth to overcome it (Memphis comes to mind), but most teams would falter in our situation. Our current core has BARELY played.

IQ - 39 missed games (and lots of these restricted minute)
RJ - 13 missed games
Barnes - 13 missed games
Jakob - 13 missed games

And then Ingram has played a grand total of 0 games, and the players that got traded for him missed a combined 60 games as well.

IDK why some posters are so hesitant to admit injuries matter

Sure, out of 8 or 9 games together without Ingram, they can only win 1 out of them each? The only reason our record is better was due to the 5 games winning streak just before the trade deadline, where it was Boucher performing very well, who isn't even our core.

And how does our ORtg and DRtg doing? Bottom 5? Having all of them healthy would raise it to average?
Let's be realistic, even all of them are healthy, are ORtg and DRtg aren't going to be better than in the middle of the league. Adding Ingram may just be somewhat in the middle, we are hardly a top 6 team next year even without injury.

8 or 9 games without Ingram? Ingram has "officially" been with us for 6 games. Of those 6 games Poeltl has played 0. RJ has played 3.

Like what the **** are you even talking about anymore? I honest to god don't even know what you are arguing other than just ranting and just being fundamentally wrong about every piece of evidence you are bringing forward.

Here is the fact of the matter:

We have seen our current core play together for a whomping 0 minutes.
Even before the Ingram trade, we saw the IQ/Barnes/Poeltl/Barrett "core" play like 5 full games.
In addition to those 4 ^, we had significant injuries to our bench which made the issue worse than usual.
None of your posts are considering that we also are adding a top prospect from this draft.

Long story short - you have no clue how our team will look. We are 18-39, and essentially we are adding a (hopefully) healthy Quickley and Ingram, and a top 5-10 pick to our roster. How you possibly are capping that as "middle of the league" is mind boggling considering the only moderately healthy stretch this team had was quite successful.

Contender? No. But middle of the pack celling? Also no.

This is what I said, Ingram is not our savior.
How much ORtg and DRtg can he improve our team from bottom 5. Even I assume everyone is everyone without Ingram, we are bottom 10 in both, adding him would put us more than half in the league? More like middle of the pack ceiling to me without account for injuries.

Again, that is my opinion, you can disagree.
It just happened last season (Siakam-Anunoby-Barnes playoff team?), then this season (Barrett-Quickley-Barnes playoff team?), we didn't really go anywhere, just asset management these years, including next year.