If the draft is rigged...

[Pointgod]

It's entertainment man, ofc it's rigged

It’s absolutely **** stupid for 14 other teams to agree on rigging the draft against their own individual benefit. And if the draft was rigged there would be zero reason for teams like Utah, Washington, even the Raptors to tank.

It's rigged man if you can't see that idk what to say

And you’re very gullible idk what to say….

[ATLTimekeeper]

Here’s video of the actual process. Conspiracy theorists should be forced to watch this and then explain to me like I’m 5 how this was rigged for the 4 teams that who ended up getting the ping pong balls combinations.

Watch on YouTube

Nobody is going to explain jack to you cause I could care less how PointGod feels on the topic lol. I'm not in the business of explaining to anyone what they should/shouldn't believe.

For all anyone know those balls could have a slight weight difference or magnetic strip that affects their suction. Now you'll want proof of that...and on and on and on.

Dallas winning the lottery with a 1.8% chance, a few months after gifting the Lakers one Luka Doncic; just smells fishy. Nobody can argue that it doesn't based on video that the NBA itself has released "showing the process".

It’s only fishy to you because you literally don’t understand how the process works. If you actually listened to the video the balls are all weighted before the process and the whole magnetic stripe argument doesn’t explain how you get the exact combination that the Mavs got. The Mavs were two playin wins from this whole conspiracy theory being blown up.

One play-in win. They won their first game, despite Adam Silver telling them that they'd get Cooper Flagg for Luka to boost ratings.

[nikster]

It’s absolutely **** stupid for 14 other teams to agree on rigging the draft against their own individual benefit. And if the draft was rigged there would be zero reason for teams like Utah, Washington, even the Raptors to tank.

It's rigged man if you can't see that idk what to say

Also it wouldn’t be about “14 teams agreeing on it”…it’s Silver looking at how he can boost ratings and allowing stuff like this and the blatant inside job the Luka trade was. Everyone heard how the league was badly struggling with ratings and this stuff was all a stimulus package to revive interest which it almost certainly will.

Who do you think Silver works for? So your taking this conspiracy to a whole other level by saying the league commissioner is working against the individual interest of the other team owners in the lottery

[Dr Positivity]

Kyrie after the lotto

[PushDaRock]

I am enjoying every conspiracy theory people come up with, keep them coming!!!

[Pointgod]

Nobody is going to explain jack to you cause I could care less how PointGod feels on the topic lol. I'm not in the business of explaining to anyone what they should/shouldn't believe.

For all anyone know those balls could have a slight weight difference or magnetic strip that affects their suction. Now you'll want proof of that...and on and on and on.

Dallas winning the lottery with a 1.8% chance, a few months after gifting the Lakers one Luka Doncic; just smells fishy. Nobody can argue that it doesn't based on video that the NBA itself has released "showing the process".

It’s only fishy to you because you literally don’t understand how the process works. If you actually listened to the video the balls are all weighted before the process and the whole magnetic stripe argument doesn’t explain how you get the exact combination that the Mavs got. The Mavs were two playin wins from this whole conspiracy theory being blown up.

One play-in win. They won their first game, despite Adam Silver telling them that they'd get Cooper Flagg for Luka to boost ratings.

Thanks for clarifying. So according to this conspiracy theory Adam Silver forced the Mavs to trade Luka to the Lakers and promised them Copper Flagg if they did, but despite all of this they tried to be competitive until Kyrie got hurt, they rushed Davis back from injury to make the play-in and were one play-in game away from this plan completely being infeasible…… and even then there’s zero rationale how they rigged the draft and not only got 13 other teams to go along with it but the NBA media, company that built the lottery machine and an accounting firm to go along with it.

Conspiracy theorists are

[Badonkadonk]

So much crying and craziness in this thread. The Hawks winning it last year should've been what opened eyes on how flat the odds are.

It's very punishing to gut your roster down to just 1 or 2 guys, with no timeline to crawling out of the mud. I bet teams still do it tho (I guess some do accidentally).

[mdenny]

Kyrie after the lotto

YOU ARE THE WINNER lol.

I tip my hat to you sir. That was great.

Hadn't even thought this through for the mavs.

I guess Kyrie isn't expected to play the entire season though. They have a lot of young front court players they could turn into a guard in the meantime I suppose. I'm happy for their fans. Would've been much worse if the spurs or Philly got him imo.

We'll see. I don't think he's gonna be as good as ppl seem to think right now. Jack of all trade type prospects sometimes don't translate as effectively as those with a clearly defined skill set. A young guy who's elite at everything at college might end up being above average at everything in the NBA. There's no top 10 or top 20 player in the league who is simply above average at everything. You have to be in the 99th percentile of some facet of the game to be a superstar. It's not clear what facet that will be for Cooper.

[nikster]

I suggested it a while ago.

Still, it seemed to be a minority opinion. And this poster would have thought it was rigged if any of Utah, Philly or Mavs won , That's a 25% chance of one of those teams winning. (probably would have believed it was rigged for a couple other teams too).

If anything this thread is proof how most of the posters who believe it's rigged will twist their narrative. "If team X or Y wins it's definitely rigged". After team Z wins those same people "See! I told you it's rigged"

So if everybody said it was the Mavs then what?

Fact of the matter is, nobody on the "conspiracy" side thought that the NBA would be this brazen to literally rub it in our faces. Dallas, the laughing stock post-Luka trade with only a 1.8% chance at winning, pulls it off! Hallelujah, what a miracle!!

There will always be people like you eating the script; but coincidences this big don't just randomly keep happening, yet in the NBA they've happened plenty.

All on the up and up though, right?

"We knew it was rigged, didn't think it was this rigged". Right.

What are the coincidences? Is it a coincidence that Kyrie tore his acl and AD reaggravated his injury causing the Mavs to fall into the lottery? Since the league couldnt have forseen that happening, they couldnt have determined to rig this at the time of the trade. This board would have thought it was a coincidence that Utah gets #1 when Cooper is the consensus. Others would have thought it was a coincidence that Philly gets #1 after Embiids injuries.

[maternal85]

I am enjoying every conspiracy theory people come up with, keep them coming!!!

The Kings players were called conspiracy theorists when they claimed the Lakers were given the series against them. Years later the ref was arrested for rigging the game. The Jazz will get the 1st pick next year and draft AJ. NBA players are even calling out this clear rigged draft.

[mdenny]

Still, it seemed to be a minority opinion. And this poster would have thought it was rigged if any of Utah, Philly or Mavs won , That's a 25% chance of one of those teams winning. (probably would have believed it was rigged for a couple other teams too).

If anything this thread is proof how most of the posters who believe it's rigged will twist their narrative. "If team X or Y wins it's definitely rigged". After team Z wins those same people "See! I told you it's rigged"

So if everybody said it was the Mavs then what?

Fact of the matter is, nobody on the "conspiracy" side thought that the NBA would be this brazen to literally rub it in our faces. Dallas, the laughing stock post-Luka trade with only a 1.8% chance at winning, pulls it off! Hallelujah, what a miracle!!

There will always be people like you eating the script; but coincidences this big don't just randomly keep happening, yet in the NBA they've happened plenty.

All on the up and up though, right?

"We knew it was rigged, didn't think it was this rigged". Right.

What are the coincidences? Is it a coincidence that Kyrie tore his acl and AD reaggravated his injury causing the Mavs to fall into the lottery? Since the league couldnt have forseen that happening, they couldnt have determined to rig this at the time of the trade. This board would have thought it was a coincidence that Utah gets #1 when Cooper is the consensus. Others would have thought it was a coincidence that Philly gets #1 after Embiids injuries.

Those are really good points. The Utah thing would be the exact reasoning they used for LeBron. If it was the spurs it would be "the league needs a dynasty".

[PushDaRock]

I am enjoying every conspiracy theory people come up with, keep them coming!!!

The Kings players were called conspiracy theorists when they claimed the Lakers were given the series against them. Years later the ref was arrested for rigging the game. The Jazz will get the 1st pick next year and draft AJ. NBA players are even calling out this clear rigged draft.

That's why I want to keep hearing them so we can dig the posts up in 20 years to say "I Told You So"

[TheDunc]

Whether its rigged or not, the lottery is a damn crapshoot and needs a makeover.

Luckily I was excited to see BI next year because if not for him I might of given up. It's absolutely ridiculous that you have teams being gifted a superstar. I seriously think the Bargnani draft was so horrible the league said give the raptors the top pick that year.

No team that makes the play in should be winning the damn lottery, high picks should be for bad teams

[Shakril]

Just an Addendum for probability of how likely is that a low percentage team gets the pick:

You guys look at the lottery and think:"Dallas had only 1.8% chance" or the spurs only "6.3% for the 2nd pick.

That is the wrong way to look at it.
This is a thing about probability and statitics.
To understand how likely or unlikely it was for Dallas and Spurs to get the two picks, you have to involve the teams around them.
In This case i will involve every team that has similar or lower odds.

Lets put the Lottery Teams in 3 Baskets.

Basket 1: Utah, Charlotte, Washington, New Orleans and the 76ers -> together they have a 65% Chance to get the pick. That means, it is a 1 in 3 Chance they dont. That is not a low number.

Basket 2: Nets, Raptors, Spurs, Suns and Blazers -> 30% chance essentially, which is a little less than 1 in 3 chance.

Basket 3: Mavs, Hawks, Kings and Bulls -> 5% chance

5% seem low, but is more or less 3 times the chance dallas individually had. But is still not unreasonable to think that one of those 4 teams get the pick. And the mavs actually had the highest odds of all 4 teams.

Of course, you can put the lottery teams in different baskets, but in the end its not otherworlds to believe that they win.

I suggest to everybody to take a 6 sided dice and write down every roll you get until every number came at least once.
Even though every number has 16,7% chance to come, you will find out, that is not what your results will be saying in 99% the cases.
That is not completly true, it actually can happen, but the odds for it are extremly low. You can do several takes and see how long it takes until it happens.
And to those that say it will even out someday: good luck with that, you will need a many lot of rolls until that actually happens.

You probably can do it online too.

I did it 3 times:

Once i needed 11 Rolls,
once i needed 24 Rolls,
once i needed 10 Rolls.

If everything is equal, it should only take 6 rolls every time.

That is difference between odds and probability.

[mihaic]

Just an Addendum for probability of how likely is that a low percentage team gets the pick:

You guys look at the lottery and think:"Dallas had only 1.8% chance" or the spurs only "6.3% for the 2nd pick.

That is the wrong way to look at it.
This is a thing about probability and statitics.
To understand how likely or unlikely it was for Dallas and Spurs to get the two picks, you have to involve the teams around them.
In This case i will involve every team that has similar or lower odds.

Lets put the Lottery Teams in 3 Baskets.

Basket 1: Utah, Charlotte, Washington, New Orleans and the 76ers -> together they have a 65% Chance to get the pick. That means, it is a 1 in 3 Chance they dont. That is not a low number.

Basket 2: Nets, Raptors, Spurs, Suns and Blazers -> 30% chance essentially, which is a little less than 1 in 3 chance.

Basket 3: Mavs, Hawks, Kings and Bulls -> 5% chance

5% seem low, but is more or less 3 times the chance dallas individually had. But is still not unreasonable to think that one of those 4 teams get the pick. And the mavs actually had the highest odds of all 4 teams.

Of course, you can put the lottery teams in different baskets, but in the end its not otherworlds to believe that they win.

I suggest to everybody to take a 6 sided dice and write down every roll you get until every number came at least once.
Even though every number has 16,7% chance to come, you will find out, that is not what your results will be saying in 99% the cases.
That is not completly true, it actually can happen, but the odds for it are extremly low. You can do several takes and see how long it takes until it happens.
And to those that say it will even out someday: good luck with that, you will need a many lot of rolls until that actually happens.

You probably can do it online too.

I did it 3 times:

Once i needed 11 Rolls,
once i needed 24 Rolls,
once i needed 10 Rolls.

If everything is equal, it should only take 6 rolls every time.

That is difference between odds and probability.

Your experiments have nothing to do with the facts that:
- a team with a very low probability won
- that same team was involved in a very shady deal to send a superstar to NBA's darling, the Lakers

It could be a coincidence. Or not. Your experiment has literally nothing to do with it.

[dTox]

I'm on the fence but this gave me a good chuckle

Read on Twitter

?t=6qh0L46Y37-zT2aAIHHLEA&s=19

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro using RealGM mobile app

[mihaic]

It doesn't matter if the draft is rigged. Masai considers himself a good scout but he's never really had any top 7 picks.

Hypothetically:

We trade Poeltl for 2 picks at the prior trade deadline.

Tank hard enough to be bottom 3.

Even if we drop we'd end up in the top 7.

Trade the picks we got for Poeltl for a vet C available on the market.

Draft a premium prospect we can develop.

We would have been in the exact same spot we're currently in but with a better pick. Poeltl isn't that special there's a lot of defensive centers that can't provide meaningful offense.

[Yeezus_]

Lol draft conspiracists are wild. An unlikely outcome doesn’t make it an impossible outcome. You can’t call a 1.7% chance of winning something a conspiracy…

[Raps in 4]

Galileo is brought up to justify all sorts of stupid conspiracy theories because the one outspoken voice may be right.

Here's the major difference between Galileo and other dumb conspiracies: Galileo used evidence! He built upon an existing mathematical theory with his own documented and repeatable observations.

Also he was proving the heliocentric model, people knew the Earth was round over a 1000 years before Galileo!

This isn't a stupid conspiracy theory though. It's a logical conclusion. Billionaire owners are colluding to increase the value of their shared product. It doesn't make sense for them not to collude.

Fans care about competitive balance. Owners care about the value of their investment increasing.

I really don't think the incentive is there. I'm supposed to believe that someone like Flagg going to the Mavs is going to increase revenue sharing and league valuation so much that splitting it among 30 teams out weighs the benefit an individual owner would receive from jersey sales and multiple deep post season runs and possibly a title? That's not even getting into the massive risk to reputation if something like this was found out

Sending Luka to the Lakers increased revenue for the league. The Mavs getting Flagg was just part of the transaction.

[Woodman19]

The league is so transparent they conduct the lottery behind closed doors. Nothing to hide for sure