NotMyKawhi wrote:So Bulls can't win more than 8 games. They have 7 lottery team games. 2 against us, one against the Blazers. 2 against the sixers.
8th lottery odds, play in> 6th lottery odds no play in
The Bulls can win more than 8 games and still end up with better draft odds than the Raptors.
Chicago Bulls
23-35 (8th worst)
Games Remaining: 24
Winnable Games (12):
Feb 28 vs Toronto
Mar 8 @ Miami
Mar 13 vs Brooklyn
Mar 17 @ Utah
Mar 19 @ Phoenix
Mar 20 @ Sacramento
Apr 1 vs Toronto
Apr 4 vs Portland
Apr 6 @ Charlotte
Apr 9 vs Miami
Apr 11 vs Washington
Apr 13 @ Philadelphia
Chicago wins 100% of its winnable games: 35-47
Chicago wins 75% of its winnable games: 31-51
Chicago wins 50% of its winnable games: 29-53
Chicago wins 25% of its winnable games: 26-56
Toronto Raptors
18-40 (5th worst)
Games Remaining: 24
Winnable Games (18):
Feb 28 @ Chicago
Mar 7 vs Utah
Mar 8 vs Washington
Mar 10 vs Washington
Mar 12 vs Philadelphia
Mar 14 @ Utah
Mar 16 @ Portland
Mar 17 @ Phoenix
Mar 23 vs San Antonio
Mar 24 @ Washington
Mar 26 @ Brooklyn
Mar 28 vs Charlotte
Mar 30 @ Philadelphia
Apr 1 @ Chicago
Apr 3 vs Portland
Apr 6 @ Brooklyn
Apr 9 vs Charlotte
Apr 13 @ San Antonio
Toronto wins 100% of its winnable games: 36-46
Toronto wins 75% of its winnable games: 31-51
Toronto wins 50% of its winnable games: 27-55
Toronto wins 25% of its winnable games: 23-59
If Toronto wins 100% of its winnable games and Chicago wins 100% of its winnable games, the Raptors will end the season with a 36-46 record and the Bulls will end the season with a 35-47 record.
Since we play 2 games against each other this outcome is not possible, so:
If Toronto goes 2-0 against the Bulls, Chicago would finish the season with a 33-49 record and Toronto would have a 36-46 record. Chicago would have the better draft odds.
If the series is tied 1-1, Toronto would finish with a 35-47 record and Chicago would finish with a 34-48 record. Chicago would have the better draft odds.
If Chicago goes 2-0 against the Raptors, Toronto would finish the season with a 34-48 record and Chicago would have a 35-47 record. Toronto would have the better draft odds.
If Toronto wins 75% of its winnable games and Chicago wins 75% of its winnable games, both teams end the season with the same 31-51 record. A tiebreaker would decide which team has the better draft odds.
If Toronto wins 75% of its winnable games and Chicago wins 50% of its winnable games, the Raptors will end the season with a 31-51 record and the Bulls will end the season with a 29-53 record. Chicago would have the better draft odds.
If Toronto wins 50% of its winnable games and Chicago wins 50% of its winnable games, the Raptors will end the season with a 27-55 record and the Bulls will end the season with a 29-53 record. Toronto would have the better draft odds.
If Toronto wins 50% of its winnable games and Chicago wins 25% of its winnable games, the Raptors will end the season with a 27-55 record and the Bulls will end the season with a 26-56 record. Toronto would have the better draft odds.
If Toronto wins 25% of its winnable games and Chicago wins 25% of its winnable games, the Raptors will end the season with a 23-59 record and the Bulls will end the season with a 26-56 record. Toronto would have the better draft odds.
Of these 8 scenarios, the Raptors have the better draft odds 4 times, the Bulls have the better draft odds 3 times, and the last scenario would be determined by a tiebreaker. Let's call that 4.5 times out of 8.
56% of the time, the odds favor the Raptors
44% of the time, the odds favor the Bulls