Indeed wrote:
Keep in mind that we aren't better than New Orleans with Siakam.
When did Siakam sign with the Pelicans?
Indeed wrote:Even one of BBQ can become Siakam level, we are not better than 50% record. Yet, we are not worse than Memphis. It is very likely we are between 30% and 40%, won't make the playin and not bad enough against the ultra tanking teams (this year already proved we can't tank better than those teams with BBQ).
25 wins = 30.4% win percentage
33 wins = 40.2% win percentage
41 wins = 50% win percentage
50 wins = 60% win percentage
Do you think we'll win somewhere between 33 and 41 games next season and either make the play-in tournament as a #9 or #10 seed or end up in the bottom half of the lottery (#7 to #14 pick) for the 2025 draft?
Indeed wrote:As for next year, I don't need to pick, but definitely has higher ceilings. All I feel is that in 2025, there are higher ceiling players in Zikarsky / Bidunga who would project better than Clingan in lower pick. The comparison in Castle will have to wait for next year, but there are few high ceiling players who are projected to be better and may able to find one near lottery.
While those players might end up being better than Clingan at some point five years down the road, they aren't better than him now and neither would be a better fit alongside Scottie, RJ, IQ, Dick, Ochai, and Boucher than Clingan even though he's not the most ideal fit either.
Zikarsky - his FIBA #'s are good, but not when he played 7 minutes per game in the NBL. Passes the eye test despite looking like he was taken straight from the outback dessert of Australia, but he isn't a great passer or shooter and might not develop those skills well enough to be the kind of KO/JP clone we'd likely want to have alongside Scottie.
Bidunga - DR of Congo native who began playing basketball in 2019 and didn't arrive in the US to play in HS until 2021. Undersized for the C position at 6-9 who would likely be more of a PF if his skill set were able to move him out to that position, but his lack of shooting and ability to handle the ball aren't a good fit so he uses his energy, hustle, speed, agility and athleticism to outwork and outmaneuver his opponents.
With centers like Kyle Filipowski, Yves Missi, and Kel'el Ware potentially available when we select using the Pacers pick at #17 in the 2024 draft, I'd even prefer Missi & Ware over Bidunga and Filipowski over Zikarsky or would even be happy with a sharp-shooting PF like Tyler Smith or Tidjane Salaun than choose either of those C prospects in the late lottery of the 2025 draft.
As for the guards and wings we could select this year or next, whether it's Risacher, Castle, Dillingham, Sheppard, Holland, Buzelis, or perhaps even Cody Williams, I'd rather select any of the above among the top 6 in the 2024 draft than roll the dice and hope a guard/wing like Boogie Fland, Jaland Lowe, Cam Scott, Jase Richardson, Rylan Griffen, Kanaan Carlyle, Nolan Traore, Drake Powell, Isaiah Evans, Karter Knox, Carter Bryant, Dame Sarr, Hamad Mousa, Egor Demin, Mackenize Mgbako, Liam McNeeley, Caleb Foster, Tahaad Pettiford, or AJ Storr who could be available in the late lottery of the 2025 draft is going to be better than any of them by the time their rookie contracts end and they're eligible for their first extension.
Considering the breadth and depth of this draft, the player we select at #17 could be just as good as the player we select at #6 but the player we'd likely get somewhere at the end of the lottery in 2025 probably isn't going to be any better than either of these players who'll each have the benefit of growing together along with the rest of the team for a whole season and can compound that growth as they work together over the summer after next season.
Just the same as it were in 2016 when we drafted/signed Jakob, Pascal, and FVV in the same year, I think the opportunities and growth potential provided by adding three players from the same draft class are more advantageous to the team and would rather not convey the pick this year for all of the reasons I've stated.
Ultimately, though, it will come down to how the ping-pong balls bounce but hopefully we get a top 4 pick in this year's draft and walk away with a player who can be just as good as whomever we could pick at the end of the lottery in 2025, but have the benefit of growing and developing alongside other rookies and the rest of the core a full season longer than it would be if we had to wait until next year to add that piece to our core.