1. Washington Wizards
Cooper Flagg | 6-9 forward | 18 years old | Duke
Flagg will go No. 1 regardless of who gets the pick. He was the national player of the year in college basketball this season at just 18 years old after reclassifying into the 2024 recruiting class. He posted ridiculous numbers, averaging 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.4 blocks per game, but it got even better after January. In his final 25 games, including the Georgia Tech game in which he rolled an ankle after 15 minutes in the ACC tournament, Flagg posted 20.5 points, seven rebounds and 4.6 assists on 51.1 percent shooting from the field, 45.1 percent from 3 and 88 percent from the line. Duke went 23-2 in that run before falling in the Final Four to Houston in staggering fashion (despite Flagg’s 27, seven and four with two steals and three blocks in that game).
Flagg isn’t quite at the Victor Wembanyama level of prospect over the last 20 years, but he belongs in the Anthony Davis tier. Barring injury, he’s about as can’t-miss as it gets because of his skill level, athleticism, shot-creation ability and mentality. Flagg is about as competitive as you’ll find on the court and will bring a serious degree of work ethic into whatever situation he arrives. He wants to be great. There’s no red flag in terms of entitlement here. He’s all about winning and will immediately become the centerpiece of whatever organization drafts him.
2. Utah Jazz
Dylan Harper | 6-6 guard | 19 years old | Rutgers
Harper is exceptionally likely to be the No. 2 pick. It would take a real surprise for someone to unseat him from this spot. His 19.4 points, 4.6 rebounds and four assists per game while shooting 48 percent from the field as a freshman guard put him in rarefied air, as few players have gotten all that close to such marks in their first year. He also creates rim pressure at an elite level, with the ability to get into the paint and finish at the basket at a serious clip with his impressive array of gathers and touch finishes at 6-6 as a lead guard.
The biggest question for Harper remains his pull-up game as a shooter, as he only hit 29.2 percent of his pull-up 3s. I watched Harper work out recently, and it’s clear that working as a scorer in ball screens, re-screens and dribble handoffs is a real emphasis for his pre-draft process. He shot the ball well in the workout that I saw. I felt like the ball would sometimes flatten out on him this season at Rutgers, but he’s starting to work on getting more consistent arc on the shot off pull-ups. Between that, his physical frame being NBA-ready and his intel all coming back very positively even in the face of a tough season at Rutgers, Harper is very well-positioned, and this would be a massive get for a Utah team that needs a backcourt of the future. Keyonte George looks like a backup long-term because of his inefficiency and defense, and while Isaiah Collier had an excellent season passing the ball, he still doesn’t have a great way to score effectively.
3. Portland Trail Blazers
Tre Johnson | 6-6 wing | 19 years old | Texas
Johnson was the most impressive player I saw working out during my trip to the U.S. He had one of the best shooting workouts I’ve ever seen from a teenage player, showcasing a serious-minded intentionality about how he goes about his craft. He displayed the ability to hit shots off movement at a high level, something that he rarely got the chance to do in an offensive scheme at Texas that could be charitably described as anachronistic but fairly described as hideously archaic. Even within that scheme, Johnson found his way into 19.9 points per game, even if he struggled a bit once he had to foray into the lane because of the team’s lack of spacing and his own still-improving overall strength level.
The Blazers, in my opinion, have a tremendous frontcourt of the future with Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara and Donovan Clingan. However, there are questions in the backcourt surrounding young players Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot Henderson, and they could use another real floor-spacer to knock down shots and threaten defenders. I see Johnson’s range as somewhere in the No. 3 to No. 8 area. I’d be surprised if he got outside of that area of the draft. This is just too good a fit to pass up.
4. New Orleans Pelicans
V.J. Edgecombe | 6-3 guard | 19 years old | Baylor
The Pelicans have already made substantive changes to their organization, firing David Griffin and hiring Joe Dumars to run basketball operations. The word out of New Orleans is simply not to expect the roster to look the same as it did this year. Edgecombe ticks a lot of boxes here, though.
Following the Dejounte Murray injury and with CJ McCollum only having one year left on his deal, they have a real need for a backcourt player of the future. Edgecombe had an excellent freshman season, averaging 15 points, nearly six rebounds, three assists and two steals. The Bahamian national team member has a case as the best athlete in the draft class, with all sorts of bounce and explosiveness.
The questions for him revolve around his ability to consistently play on the ball. However, with Trey Murphy III stepping into a bigger role there, the potential for Zion Williamson to be back and whatever happens with the Murray/McCollum duo, there should be enough bodies to let Edgecombe grow organically into a positive role and more slowly develop his on-ball game.
Ace Bailey could go as high as No. 3. (Trevor Ruszkowski / Imagn Images)
5. Charlotte Hornets
Ace Bailey | 6-10 wing/forward | 18 years old | Rutgers
Bailey drops a bit here, but don’t get it twisted: His range still starts at No. 3. I think that it extends a bit further down, though. He remains quite polarizing and has seemed to have borne the brunt of the blame from NBA personnel for Rutgers’ poor season. Yes, he averaged 17.6 points and seven rebounds while shooting 46 percent from the field and 34 percent from 3. But his style of play did not seem wildly conducive to winning basketball. He settles for a lot of long jumpers because he struggles to get all the way to the rim (he has a high handle and high center of gravity that gets knocked off its line a bit too easily). Defensively, he wasn’t always particularly engaged in help situations unless he saw an opportunity to go get the basketball.
And yet, it’s worth noting that Rutgers was a catastrophe when he wasn’t on the court. Even in Big Ten play, they lost Bailey’s minutes by only three points per 100 possessions. When he was off the court, they lost those minutes by 23 points per 100, per CBB Analytics. His presence was clearly helpful, and I think that’s what tracks most for me. Bailey is enormous, he’s long, he is a real shooter and he showed some defensive moments that were very positive in switch situations. I can’t really get him outside of the top five, and I think it would be very reasonable to take him at No. 3. It’s just that both Portland and New Orleans in this exercise at No. 3 and No. 4 are loaded with big wings right now.
6. Philadelphia 76ers
Kon Knueppel | 6-7 guard | 19 years old | Duke
The Sixers have a massive lottery night ahead. If they fall outside of the top six, they lose their draft pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Given the lottery odds, they have about a 64 percent chance of keeping the pick. Even if they don’t end up moving into the top three or so while keeping the pick, I would expect them to look into scenarios that involve moving the selection. Their backcourt is fairly loaded with Tyrese Maxey, Quentin Grimes and last year’s pick, Jared McCain. They certainly could use a bigger wing, but unless Bailey falls, that might be a stretch at this slot. There could be a consideration to get a big to backup Joel Embiid, but my read is that Daryl Morey would see that as a bad way to maximize the current core of players that he worked hard to assemble last fall.
So we’ll go with Knueppel, a bigger shooter who is competitive and tough. He has a case as the best shooter in the class along with Johnson, and his overall game was more impactful this season. They’re right next to each other on my personal board. His presence would help the Sixers with different lineup constructions, although some executives worry about what exactly Knueppel’s upside is because of some perceived athletic limitations.
7. Brooklyn Nets
Kasparas Jakučionis | 6-5 guard | 19 years old | Illinois
The Nets would probably not be particularly pleased to land at No. 7. They have a roster loaded with holes, but the good news is that they seem to have found an excellent coach long-term to build around in Jordi Fernandez. Jakučionis here would make sense, as the team doesn’t really have a primary ballhandler for the long haul on its books. Jakučionis is big and can play both on and off the ball, coming off a terrific freshman season in which he averaged 15 points, six rebounds and five assists. His vision is sublime, and he fits the current ecosystem of the NBA well with his dribble, pass and shoot traits. Still, he is a bit polarizing for folks around the league as he doesn’t have a ton of athletic explosiveness, and his defensive game was not always on point this year. His range is seen as somewhere in this ballpark down to around the end of the lottery.
8. Toronto Raptors
Derik Queen | 6-10 big | 20 years old |Maryland
With Jakob Poeltl potentially hitting free agency next year, the Raptors could use a long-term answer at center. Many people have connected Duke center Khaman Maluach here because of his time at the NBA Academy in Africa and Masai Ujiri’s efforts to promote basketball within the region, but I think Queen fits them better from a basketball perspective. Coach Darko Rajaković has tended to want players who can dribble, pass and shoot as well as make decisions. Queen has many of those skills and averaged nearly 17 points, nine rebounds and two assists as a freshman at Maryland. He’s been exceptionally productive at every stage of his career to this point, and he has real offensive talent that should lead to him putting up real numbers in the NBA.
9. San Antonio Spurs
Carter Bryant | 6-8 wing | 19 years old | Arizona
The Spurs have a few needs, including shooting and wing defense. Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson have never really developed defensively, and Harrison Barnes turns 33 next month. Stephon Castle is one player they should trust, but they could use a real 3-and-D wing to put next to Castle, De’Aaron Fox and Victor Wembanyama. Bryant profiles perfectly there as a long-term replacement for Barnes. The 6-8 wing didn’t start many games this year at Arizona, but he was a monster defensive player when he was on the court, showcasing serious playmaking chops as well as great on-ball play. He also knocks down a solid percentage of his 3s. Bryant is the guy in this class who seems to have a ton of juice when you talk to front offices, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him land in the top 10 when it’s all said and done. I think I’d park his range in the No. 7 to No. 16 area.
10. Houston Rockets (via PHX)
Collin Murray-Boyles | 6-8 wing/forward | 20 years old | South Carolina
The Rockets are loaded across each position. They have a veteran point guard in Fred VanVleet and drafted their point guard of the future in Reed Sheppard at No. 3 last year; the organization is still extremely high on Sheppard despite his lack of playing time this year. They have their center of the future in Alperen Şengün. I think they will just take the best player available in the lottery, and at this spot, that’s Murray-Boyles for me. He’s a tremendous defender and would fit in perfectly with how Ime Udoka wants to play. He also passes well and has serious toughness to play with many of their players. He processes the game at an elite level and is the kind of prospect the Rockets have valued in the past.
11. Dallas Mavericks
Jeremiah Fears | 6-4 guard | 18 years old | Oklahoma
This would be an interesting get for a Mavericks team that will desperately need shot creation if it is going to keep contending with this core. The Kyrie Irving injury has made the Mavs’ life much harder, on top of his potentially being a free agent this summer. If they can’t retain him, there’s a real case that they should then move Anthony Davis and enter an extended rebuild, but there are no signs that we’re headed toward such a situation. Fears is a playmaking guard who can get paint touches with his quickness and handle. However, he struggles to shoot the ball right now and isn’t a great finisher, and his defense needs a lot of work. He’s more of a project than a ready-made player. However, the ability to separate is there if he can improve the skill set.
12. Chicago Bulls
Khaman Maluach | 7-2 big | 19 years old | Duke
The Bulls desperately need to find answers on the defensive end, especially if they’re going to go all-in on the Josh Giddey and Coby White backcourt this summer when Giddey hits restricted free agency. Maluach would give Giddey a potential rim-runner and the rest of the team a real defensive anchor on the interior. Maluach isn’t a monster shot-blocker, but he understands how big he is and is excellent at using his size to cut off angles and contest on the interior. Offensively, there are more questions, largely about his hands and overall feel for the game. He got to basketball a bit late and is still working on how to see the floor around him. He also doesn’t always seem to come down with contested rebounds, as was starkly seen in Duke’s Final Four game against Houston, when he played 20 minutes and had zero rebounds. Still, someone will take the bet on a player who’s 7-2 with long arms and real movement skills.
