Windhorst: Raptors making noise around the league looking for a “big fish” // Giannis & Toronto "Mutual Interest"/KD too

[TheRaptor!]

Doug

I don’t know if it will happen but I do know there is mutual interest between Antetokounmpo and the Raptors. The wild card is the cost.

But I also think the Raptors are uniquely placed to make an attractive offer that won’t ruin their franchise or roster. I would make the case that a logjam at the wings makes them deep enough that if they had to pay even two out of Gradey Dick, Ochai Agbaji, Ja’Kobe Walter, RJ Barrett, Jonathan Mogbo would still leave enough to fill out a pretty good team with promising young players still developing. Plus, they have all their picks, so giving a first-rounder every year for, say, four years, leaves enough.

The question is if you think the remaining players will develop, just as that group of Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby and Jakob Poeltl did. Not to that level — that’s a historic young group no one’s come close to matching — but if it can come close, that’s pretty darn good.
Again, the odds of doing a Giannis deal are long but the remnants of paying a steep price isn’t too bad.

honestly, he doesnt have much choices if he wants to stay in the East.

I don't understand why he would even think about playing in the west. To get to the finals you need to get past:

Thunder, Houston, Lakers, Nuggets, Timberwolves, Warriors, Mavs, Grizzlies, Spurs

East? Pacers, Knicks, Cavaliers lol Boston is done next year and Pistons are relying on vets such as THJ, Malik Beasely, Harris and Schroder lol

[WuTang_CMB]

Keep up the lies though. Getting a consistent three means he needs to work on it. He admitted it to being a weakness that season and that he started working on it. Not sure why you think you can speak for him or why I should listen to a realgmer over Siakam on what he was practicing on.

Do you really think his shot improved for 9 games because he was working on it? Lol. The numbers are right there for you. He shot below 33% in his PREVIOUS 2 SEASONS mainly because he was a focal point of an offense with zero movement in one season and then the following year Darko had him doing nothing while Scottie was taking off. Since his time with the Pacers, the guy is hitting 38% because of a lead initiator in Hali and an offense that has been playing 7 second basketball.

yes, the numbers are all there. Pretty sure I broke them down for you, improvements across the board on all the easy shots in BOTH Toronto and Indiana

9 games are a small sample size, but he suddenly shoots up after he claims he's working on his shot. He regresses to a mean higher than earlier in the season on his non-self-created shots.

Your claim is that his shooting didn't improve despite statistical improvements across the board on easy shots. That he didn't work on his shot despite him saying he did or that there was no benefit to him putting in the extra work there, despite improving while he was still in Toronto and immediately after when he got to Indiana. Makes sense.

You struck out 3 times. The numbers are right there for you. Below 33% in previous 2 seasons for reasons I and Con already explained multiple times (and which is a large sample) then goes to a cleaner offense in Indy and gets to 38% (in another large sample). Eye test and stats both back it up. He's always been the same shooter, since he already shot 36% in his all nba season, where again he had better players.

[sidsid]

If they are trading for Giannis, I think it is about the end of Giannis’s career. I don’t think Giannis is the type to want to move around a lot. If he was that interested in chasing rings, he would have left the Bucks instead of pushing for the Dame trade.

What Masai probably learned from the DD/KL situation was don’t wait so long. If a known superstar is available, and they can acquire him and maintain a team, do it.

Also, I wouldn’t use the team’s performance over the last two seasons as proof of anything. They were legitimately tanking both seasons, to build up the asset base they now have to be in play for Giannis this summer.

Also, the core left around Giannis is still young (BI, RJ & IQ), so if it works, they can run it out there for the next 4-5 years. And they would still have Mogbo, Walter and Shead off the bench, plus most of their future picks.

Giannis would be bucking every trend if he stayed longer than his contract. Durant walked after multiple chips next to a hall of famer. Same for LeBron, lasted 4 years with the Heat (with LA being his retirement home).

Mercenary hunting doesn't lead to much loyalty. And we have nowhere near the cushy environments/running mates those teams had.

Likely scenario is Giannis gives you his 2 years and then hits FA where many teams are lining up cap space for him to walk into.

Any trades you make have to factor in that reality. Keep your 2027 and beyond picks if you can.

The days of teams opening up a max slot for premiere FA's are over. The last big FA signing was Kawhi and that was 6 years ago.

It's just become unnecessary when players can just secure the bag without risking injury and then just ask for a trade and have a lot of influence over where they end up.

Don't tell that to the Clippers/Nets/Heat (likely Lakers too) who made a number of moves to make sure they have that cap space in 2027 (The SGA/Giannis year, maybe even Luka).

Big FA years are on the calendar and big markets prepare accordingly.

[sidsid]

Doug

I don’t know if it will happen but I do know there is mutual interest between Antetokounmpo and the Raptors. The wild card is the cost.

But I also think the Raptors are uniquely placed to make an attractive offer that won’t ruin their franchise or roster. I would make the case that a logjam at the wings makes them deep enough that if they had to pay even two out of Gradey Dick, Ochai Agbaji, Ja’Kobe Walter, RJ Barrett, Jonathan Mogbo would still leave enough to fill out a pretty good team with promising young players still developing. Plus, they have all their picks, so giving a first-rounder every year for, say, four years, leaves enough.

The question is if you think the remaining players will develop, just as that group of Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby and Jakob Poeltl did. Not to that level — that’s a historic young group no one’s come close to matching — but if it can come close, that’s pretty darn good.
Again, the odds of doing a Giannis deal are long but the remnants of paying a steep price isn’t too bad.

honestly, he doesnt have much choices if he wants to stay in the East.

I don't understand why he would even think about playing in the west. To get to the finals you need to get past:

Thunder, Houston, Lakers, Nuggets, Timberwolves, Warriors, Mavs, Grizzlies, Spurs

East? Pacers, Knicks, Cavaliers lol Boston is done next year and Pistons are relying on vets such as THJ, Malik Beasely, Harris and Schroder lol

The only two west teams to think of are SA and OKC if I'm him. Houston just doesn't have the horses to be overwhelming in the west.

The Spurs are an immediate favourite with him in the lineup. Assuming health and a high seed you're facing really only 2 tough series'. The 2nd and 3rd round. The bottom seed isn't likely a contender and you're facing a cakewalk finals with anything coming out of the east.

Any east team you join is likely weaker than the Spurs team and you're still running into a likely buzzsaw in the finals from a team out west.

But the east allure is likely becoming the saviour of a team, while joining Wemby/SGA won't have that narrative.

[ConSarnit]

remember when Siakam was an irrelevant player that only a couple teams wanted?

SAC and GSW are probably regretting not getting Siakam. What are these untouchable role players, Keegan Murray and Kuminga, doing for them now? Diddly squat.

Siakam without a 3 point shot was not as valuable. It's really unfortunate that he only started working on his three pt shooting just as the trade deadline was coming up..Masai didn't really believe in him either.

Also, look at OG's games per year prior to this season: 43, 48, 67, 50

This is just not really true. Siakam’s 3pt shooting is not all that much different than it was here. He might have improved slightly. He has key 3 things going for him now:

1) he has a great passing PG to get him better looks

2) he’s taking zero self created 3’s on the Pacers. At any given year with the Raptors 10-15% of his 3’s were after 3+ dribbles. On the Pacers that number is down to 2%.

3) he’s taking about 33% of his 3pa from the corner with the Pacers. The past 4 years with the Raptors that’s been around 23%.

Siakam is largely just taking much easier 3’s on the Pacers.

that's what the other company man has been telling me

Catch and shoot 3's:
Toronto 2022-2023: 34.1%
Toronto first 30 games: 24.3%
Toronto last 9 games: 46.7%
Indiana 2023-2024: 38.3%
Indiana 2024-2025: 39.2%


Closest defender (wide open):
Toronto 2022-2023: 34.3%
Toronto first 30 games: 27.4%
Toronto last 9 games: 64.3%
Indiana 2023-2024: 38%
Indiana 2024-2025: 42.4%


Corner 3's:
Toronto 2022-2023: 34.4%
Toronto first 30 games: 33.3%
Toronto last 9 games: 66.7%
Indiana 2023-2024: 45.5%
Indiana 2024-2025: 40.2%

Essentially ~5-10% improvements on these easy looks. 10-15% improvements if teams are looking at his play based on the beginning of 2023-2024.

A 5% increase can be the difference between a good shooter and a mediocre/bad shooter.

Ignoring your **** company man comment…

You’re also not breaking down shots based on combined location and openness. You’re not showing whether these open shots are coming on corner or ATB attempts. The numbers show he’s cut his pull-up 3 volume by over half (the toughest type of 3’s) since he’s joined IND.

You think it’s coincidence he found his shooting form as soon as he was playing with a high level playmaker? You think he all of a sudden learned how to be a great shooter?

Leading 3pt assist combos for Siakam by year:

2021/22: FVV
2022/23: FVV
2023/24: Schroder
2023/24: Haliburton
2024/25: Haliburton

Notice any trends there? Do you not believe the quality of the play maker has an effect on the outcome of an attempt?

[mdenny]

Is there a deal where:

Bucks get their swap and pick back from NO in 2026 and 27 plus get Zion, and some 1st from Raps.

NOP get Barnes for those picks/swap and wipe hands of Zion.

Raps get Giannis

Bucks get to tank if they want but also get Zion as a "draw" for fans. And can choose to walk away from him anytime given how his contract is. Or maybe his value gets rebuilt and they are able to move him for more assets later.

NOP gets the guarantee of Barnes instead of a possibility of picks and essentially walk away from Zion.

Raps obviously upgrade

This would be the core of the deal and obviously there might be other additions...maybe Dick to NOP for example.

This is extremely well thought out. Great idea. The best ingredient for a tanking team is to get an overpaid star who's entire career is in question. It allows them to get to a salary floor without impacting the tank and most importantly, getting their own picks back.

I can easily see the bucks willing to curl up and die for a few seasons after an extended period of success. So it doesn't really matter to them to give zion a place to crash and burn.

It would be a dream come true for NO to turn Zion into scotty.

I'm not being hyperbolic.....I'm extremely impressed with this idea. Nice one.

Only problem I see is that there's nothing particularly special about the Raptors that makes them the only third team in the NO/Bucks idea. OKC could easily do the same thing with Chet as the centerpiece. Or Houston with Sengun.

But I wouldn't be surprised if this is exactly what happens.....with about 3 or 4 teams vying for the raptor role you outlined.

One thing that was pointed out on a podcast I watched recently....the future Houston picks are actually alot more valuable than the future OKC picks. The latter of which are all destined to mid to late. Houston owns alot more likely lotto picks in their cache (mostly bc their big trade was with phoenix).

Appreciate the positive feedback...lol.

The "special" part of it being the Raps, is if Giannis tells the Bucks that's where he wants to go. Because like most everyone else, they dictate that.

I'm repeating myself but you probably never read it.

My point is that giannis definitely has a say where he goes. The type of packages that the bucks would get are too big for 2 years of service. So if giannis makes a shortlist of teams he wants to play for and your team ain't on it....you might only get him for two years.

That consideration HAS to impact the return. Giving up say chet, IH and 3 to 4 picks is a reasonable package for 4 years of giannis. It's an overpay for 2 years of giannis. Amd don't forget....the value of a guy like giannis goes even lower in the last season of his contract. So you won't even be able to flip him for a comparable package.

So the bucks aren't straight up dictating everything here like they would be if he had 4 or even 3 years left on the contract.

[Johnny Bball]

Ja is definitely not on our list

Only people I'm interested in is Giannis ofcourse and Booker

Nah. Looking at the roster and the logjam of young and ok talent, they need to upgrade at either PG or SG first. C maybe but that would be depending on the draft. But it doesn't have to be for a superstar. An allstar is an upgrade at either position.

[JB7]

Giannis would be bucking every trend if he stayed longer than his contract. Durant walked after multiple chips next to a hall of famer. Same for LeBron, lasted 4 years with the Heat (with LA being his retirement home).

Mercenary hunting doesn't lead to much loyalty. And we have nowhere near the cushy environments/running mates those teams had.

Likely scenario is Giannis gives you his 2 years and then hits FA where many teams are lining up cap space for him to walk into.

Any trades you make have to factor in that reality. Keep your 2027 and beyond picks if you can.

The days of teams opening up a max slot for premiere FA's are over. The last big FA signing was Kawhi and that was 6 years ago.

It's just become unnecessary when players can just secure the bag without risking injury and then just ask for a trade and have a lot of influence over where they end up.

Don't tell that to the Clippers/Nets/Heat (likely Lakers too) who made a number of moves to make sure they have that cap space in 2027 (The SGA/Giannis year, maybe even Luka).

Big FA years are on the calendar and big markets prepare accordingly.

It is a different scenario for Giannis than it is for SGA or Luka. Those other two are young enough they could go and sign with another team and still have the time to wait for the team to build out its roster to compete, which would take another 2-3 years. If Giannis wants to compete, he can’t sign with one of those teams at age 33, and then wait 2 years for them to build out their roster.

[RapsFanInOhio]

Read on Twitter

Based on one report from Windhorst lol.

[mdenny]

Is there a deal where:

Bucks get their swap and pick back from NO in 2026 and 27 plus get Zion, and some 1st from Raps.

NOP get Barnes for those picks/swap and wipe hands of Zion.

Raps get Giannis

Bucks get to tank if they want but also get Zion as a "draw" for fans. And can choose to walk away from him anytime given how his contract is. Or maybe his value gets rebuilt and they are able to move him for more assets later.

NOP gets the guarantee of Barnes instead of a possibility of picks and essentially walk away from Zion.

Raps obviously upgrade

This would be the core of the deal and obviously there might be other additions...maybe Dick to NOP for example.

If Horst deals Giannis in a deal where TOR gets him and he doesn't get Barnes, he should pack his bags and work at Cinnabon with Saul Goodman

Well my thinking is that them getting control of their drafts back the next 2 years have a lot of value to them. Plus other picks. And of course Zion is the wildcard. Use him for a year to sell jerseys, keep fans coming to games, try and re-hab his value.

If they are willing to tank....then getting their own picks back....plus 3 toronto picks....plus 2 NO picks....plus salary filler guys who can be flipped for more picks.

I mean....that's 7 picks right out the gate (including their own which will be lottery). One of them will be #9 overall.

So 7 picks....3 of them guaranteed lottery. Plus there's a chance the 2 pelican picks will also be lottery. Let's say 1 of them.

Assuming they can flip the salary filler into 2 more picks (probably not lottery).

So 9 picks all together. 4 of them lottery picks. That's a pretty damn good way to restart the franchise during a 3 to 4 year tank while letting Zion rot away off the court.

[ConSarnit]

Everyone is continually looking at this backwards. It's not a matter of assets. The way things work in the league is that the best players pretty much choose where they want to play as featured performers. It's kinda like top level world football at this point. You have to convince players to believe in your project and to want to come here. That was where they failed with Dame and Kawhi too in terms of extending here. But if you're a top 10-15 player in the league and you had a choice of where to play, how many would chose to be here long-term? That continues to be an issue.

No crap, Masai would love Giannis to be a Raptor, but it's a matter of convincing Giannis that this would be the best destination for him that also allows him to compete for a ring.

Does that seem likely? Giannis already had that choice in free agency and he elected to remain in Milwaukee.

Obviously drafting a 1A guy is the optimum solution but that's complete luck. So trading for those stars under contract is the plan now as it was with Kawhi (and thankfully that paid off) as they have no choice (unless they wanna sit out/force a move away) but you have to be at a point in terms of roster-building where it makes sense to go all-in for that guy (I think you can make the case where it now makes sense in terms of asset consolidation plus lacking a clear top-level guy) but that player also has to want to be here long-term as the face of the project and again, that remains the issue.

Ingram wanted to be here and that's part of how that trade was able to happen.

But can Masai convince a bigger star?

I think our star hunting plans revolve around 2 things:

1) does the star actually want to come here (this really only applies to tier 1 stars like Giannis)

2) what is Barnes value around the league? I really have no idea. Last year wasn’t great but he might still be viewed at young, center piece-ish value

If Barnes’ value is still high then I think we can close the gap on some of the teams with larger asset bases. If Barnes value has taken a hit (now on max deal, scoring looks shakey) then I think we get outbid if we try to go big game hunting. If a star wants to come here that would be great but I’m still at the “believe it when I see it” point.

If we want to keep Barnes (or his value is now just “ok”) I don’t see how we get into the trading for a star business.

Barnes value is not as high as Cade or Mobley, but I think it can definitely rebound in the right situation. Plus, he is not making 30% of the cap like those two for the next 5 seasons.

Barnes is clearly still viewed as the best player on the Raps. And the moment he is offered in the deal, it significantly narrows the competition from other teams. Then the Cavs, if interested need to offer Mobley, Rockets Amen, etc.

Keep in mind, when Masai made the Kawhi deal, he was sending out the player viewed as the best player on the Raps. Now he had given the Lowry/Derozan duo multiple playoff runs to prove whether they could make it happen. Maybe this time, he just doesn’t have that kind of patience.

It makes sense to offer Barnes. Giannis is not a short term option like Kawhi. And having a legit starting lineup around him would matter. With Barnes in the deal, they only need to offer smaller contracts like Gradey and Ochai to get to Giannis’s salary. Also, players more ready to contribute, and also young like Barnes would be appealing to the Bucks. For the Raps, they keep their starting lineup intact, just swapping Barnes for Giannis, and retain a cheap bench in Mogbo, Battle, Walter and Shead to stay below the 1st apron. If the lineup works, this team is locked in financially for 2 years. If it doesn’t, they have pieces to trade.

Also, offering young players that can contribute now (Barnes, Gradey & Ochai) probably means they could get away with offering less picks. I think 9th pick would need to go for sure, but maybe only one other first. Masai doesn’t like to give away FRPs. And FRPs from a team with Giannis will be of less interest to the Bucks, because clearly those will be low FRPs.

Honestly, I’m not really sure what Barnes value is across the league. He’s looking more like a #3 than he is a #1. He just came off a year where he was pretty much the worst volume scorer in the league. I could see some teams being high on him and others not. The luster is wearing off. I would think any team trading for him would have questions about his ceiling and if they would actually be getting value out of him when he’s now making $40m.

If I’m the Bucks I’m not very excited to build my future team around Barnes, Dick and the 9th pick. Given their lack of other assets it’s tough to see how the Bucks would build a competitive team around that roster. We’re having a hard enough time doing it and we’re starting from a much better position than they would be given their aging roster and low quality draft assets.

[Clay Davis]

I think I have an STD (Scottie Trust Disorder). I hope that we keep Scottie because I quite like his rizz, and I'd like to continue with him going further since I think it'd be much more rewarding to succeed with a player we've drafted than a player we've traded for. I am clearly quite anomalous as it seems that the prospect of him becoming a true franchise player have dimmed across the board. Am I alone in thinking that he is much better than his last season would indicate?

Does anyone else here have an STD? If so, how would you recommend ensuring that this STD is enjoyed by as many people as possible? I would like to improve the perception of Scottie so I can spread my STD to others.

[earthtone]

I think our star hunting plans revolve around 2 things:

1) does the star actually want to come here (this really only applies to tier 1 stars like Giannis)

2) what is Barnes value around the league? I really have no idea. Last year wasn’t great but he might still be viewed at young, center piece-ish value

If Barnes’ value is still high then I think we can close the gap on some of the teams with larger asset bases. If Barnes value has taken a hit (now on max deal, scoring looks shakey) then I think we get outbid if we try to go big game hunting. If a star wants to come here that would be great but I’m still at the “believe it when I see it” point.

If we want to keep Barnes (or his value is now just “ok”) I don’t see how we get into the trading for a star business.

Barnes value is not as high as Cade or Mobley, but I think it can definitely rebound in the right situation. Plus, he is not making 30% of the cap like those two for the next 5 seasons.

Barnes is clearly still viewed as the best player on the Raps. And the moment he is offered in the deal, it significantly narrows the competition from other teams. Then the Cavs, if interested need to offer Mobley, Rockets Amen, etc.

Keep in mind, when Masai made the Kawhi deal, he was sending out the player viewed as the best player on the Raps. Now he had given the Lowry/Derozan duo multiple playoff runs to prove whether they could make it happen. Maybe this time, he just doesn’t have that kind of patience.

It makes sense to offer Barnes. Giannis is not a short term option like Kawhi. And having a legit starting lineup around him would matter. With Barnes in the deal, they only need to offer smaller contracts like Gradey and Ochai to get to Giannis’s salary. Also, players more ready to contribute, and also young like Barnes would be appealing to the Bucks. For the Raps, they keep their starting lineup intact, just swapping Barnes for Giannis, and retain a cheap bench in Mogbo, Battle, Walter and Shead to stay below the 1st apron. If the lineup works, this team is locked in financially for 2 years. If it doesn’t, they have pieces to trade.

Also, offering young players that can contribute now (Barnes, Gradey & Ochai) probably means they could get away with offering less picks. I think 9th pick would need to go for sure, but maybe only one other first. Masai doesn’t like to give away FRPs. And FRPs from a team with Giannis will be of less interest to the Bucks, because clearly those will be low FRPs.

Honestly, I’m not really sure what Barnes value is across the league. He’s looking more like a #3 than he is a #1. He just came off a year where he was pretty much the worst volume scorer in the league. I could see some teams being high on him and others not. The luster is wearing off. I would think any team trading for him would have questions about his ceiling and if they would actually be getting value out of him when he’s now making $40m.

If I’m the Bucks I’m not very excited to build my future team around Barnes, Dick and the 9th pick. Given their lack of other assets it’s tough to see how the Bucks would build a competitive team around that roster. We’re having a hard enough time doing it and we’re starting from a much better position than they would be given their aging roster and low quality draft assets.

I can’t imagine Barnes’ value isn’t high around the league. He has his efficiency problems, but 23 year-old with DPOY potential who averaged 19/8/6 don’t grow on trees.

Would definitely take more than just one first, but I think Barnes/Dick/Ochai + all our 1sts/swaps till 2031 is a really competitive offer and could be enough to get it done if Giannis is motivated to come to T.O.

[RoteSchroder]

This is just not really true. Siakam’s 3pt shooting is not all that much different than it was here. He might have improved slightly. He has key 3 things going for him now:

1) he has a great passing PG to get him better looks

2) he’s taking zero self created 3’s on the Pacers. At any given year with the Raptors 10-15% of his 3’s were after 3+ dribbles. On the Pacers that number is down to 2%.

3) he’s taking about 33% of his 3pa from the corner with the Pacers. The past 4 years with the Raptors that’s been around 23%.

Siakam is largely just taking much easier 3’s on the Pacers.

that's what the other company man has been telling me

Catch and shoot 3's:
Toronto 2022-2023: 34.1%
Toronto first 30 games: 24.3%
Toronto last 9 games: 46.7%
Indiana 2023-2024: 38.3%
Indiana 2024-2025: 39.2%


Closest defender (wide open):
Toronto 2022-2023: 34.3%
Toronto first 30 games: 27.4%
Toronto last 9 games: 64.3%
Indiana 2023-2024: 38%
Indiana 2024-2025: 42.4%


Corner 3's:
Toronto 2022-2023: 34.4%
Toronto first 30 games: 33.3%
Toronto last 9 games: 66.7%
Indiana 2023-2024: 45.5%
Indiana 2024-2025: 40.2%

Essentially ~5-10% improvements on these easy looks. 10-15% improvements if teams are looking at his play based on the beginning of 2023-2024.

A 5% increase can be the difference between a good shooter and a mediocre/bad shooter.

Ignoring your **** company man comment…

You’re also not breaking down shots based on combined location and openness. You’re not showing whether these open shots are coming on corner or ATB attempts. The numbers show he’s cut his pull-up 3 volume by over half (the toughest type of 3’s) since he’s joined IND.

You think it’s coincidence he found his shooting form as soon as he was playing with a high level playmaker? You think he all of a sudden learned how to be a great shooter?

Leading 3pt assist combos for Siakam by year:

2021/22: FVV
2022/23: FVV
2023/24: Schroder
2023/24: Haliburton
2024/25: Haliburton

Notice any trends there? Do you not believe the quality of the play maker has an effect on the outcome of an attempt?

Catch and shoot 3's don't include pull up 3's. He's not pulling up from corners. Completely wide open 3's...are completely wide open. Not my fault you don't like the stats.

We're not talking his shooting 3-5 years ago, we're talking about how he went from struggling to hitting his open shots, working on his game, and improving within-season.

- So he suddenly went from one of the worst 3 point performers in NBA history to hitting 50%+ in Toronto without working on his shooting? He found his shooting form BEFORE going to Indiana.

- Was his improvement while he was still with Toronto just a "coincidence" or a massive swing in variance? and it just happened to coincide with the time he claimed he was working on his shot.

- Does his 3 point shooting magically improve if he made absolutely no changes to his training regimen?

Pull up 3's:
Toronto 2023-2024: 0.4/game, (10.8% frequency)
Indiana 2024-2025: 0.4/game, (9.5% frequency)

That doesn't look like half to me. You question stats for catch and shoot 3's, corner 3's and wide open 3's, but then quote fake stats to me multiple times.

[Clay Davis]

Barnes value is not as high as Cade or Mobley, but I think it can definitely rebound in the right situation. Plus, he is not making 30% of the cap like those two for the next 5 seasons.

Barnes is clearly still viewed as the best player on the Raps. And the moment he is offered in the deal, it significantly narrows the competition from other teams. Then the Cavs, if interested need to offer Mobley, Rockets Amen, etc.

Keep in mind, when Masai made the Kawhi deal, he was sending out the player viewed as the best player on the Raps. Now he had given the Lowry/Derozan duo multiple playoff runs to prove whether they could make it happen. Maybe this time, he just doesn’t have that kind of patience.

It makes sense to offer Barnes. Giannis is not a short term option like Kawhi. And having a legit starting lineup around him would matter. With Barnes in the deal, they only need to offer smaller contracts like Gradey and Ochai to get to Giannis’s salary. Also, players more ready to contribute, and also young like Barnes would be appealing to the Bucks. For the Raps, they keep their starting lineup intact, just swapping Barnes for Giannis, and retain a cheap bench in Mogbo, Battle, Walter and Shead to stay below the 1st apron. If the lineup works, this team is locked in financially for 2 years. If it doesn’t, they have pieces to trade.

Also, offering young players that can contribute now (Barnes, Gradey & Ochai) probably means they could get away with offering less picks. I think 9th pick would need to go for sure, but maybe only one other first. Masai doesn’t like to give away FRPs. And FRPs from a team with Giannis will be of less interest to the Bucks, because clearly those will be low FRPs.

Honestly, I’m not really sure what Barnes value is across the league. He’s looking more like a #3 than he is a #1. He just came off a year where he was pretty much the worst volume scorer in the league. I could see some teams being high on him and others not. The luster is wearing off. I would think any team trading for him would have questions about his ceiling and if they would actually be getting value out of him when he’s now making $40m.

If I’m the Bucks I’m not very excited to build my future team around Barnes, Dick and the 9th pick. Given their lack of other assets it’s tough to see how the Bucks would build a competitive team around that roster. We’re having a hard enough time doing it and we’re starting from a much better position than they would be given their aging roster and low quality draft assets.

I can’t imagine Barnes’ value isn’t high around the league. He has his efficiency problems, but 23 year-old with DPOY potential who averaged 19/8/6 don’t grow on trees.

Would definitely take more than just one first, but I think Barnes/Dick/Ochai + all our 1sts/swaps till 2031 is a really competitive offer and could be enough to get it done if Giannis is motivated to come to T.O.

That's quite a lot to give up. Personally, I wonder whether the Luka Doncic might set a better floor for us to work from? Losing the best of our picks until 2031, atop of the roster pieces is a tough pill to swallow (even if getting rid of Scottie frees up some salary for a Giannis we could trade later to recoup some of his value). But as a wise man said " a switch in rizz is part of the biz"...

[Clay Davis]

Here's something to ponder: how does the perception of Scottie now compare to the perception of SGA in 2019? Consider what SGA was traded for. Personally I think the perception of Scottie's rizz is a good amount lower just because SGA did not have any glaring flaws like Scottie does. SGA was also put in a much worse situation, roster-wise.

[mdenny]

Barnes value is not as high as Cade or Mobley, but I think it can definitely rebound in the right situation. Plus, he is not making 30% of the cap like those two for the next 5 seasons.

Barnes is clearly still viewed as the best player on the Raps. And the moment he is offered in the deal, it significantly narrows the competition from other teams. Then the Cavs, if interested need to offer Mobley, Rockets Amen, etc.

Keep in mind, when Masai made the Kawhi deal, he was sending out the player viewed as the best player on the Raps. Now he had given the Lowry/Derozan duo multiple playoff runs to prove whether they could make it happen. Maybe this time, he just doesn’t have that kind of patience.

It makes sense to offer Barnes. Giannis is not a short term option like Kawhi. And having a legit starting lineup around him would matter. With Barnes in the deal, they only need to offer smaller contracts like Gradey and Ochai to get to Giannis’s salary. Also, players more ready to contribute, and also young like Barnes would be appealing to the Bucks. For the Raps, they keep their starting lineup intact, just swapping Barnes for Giannis, and retain a cheap bench in Mogbo, Battle, Walter and Shead to stay below the 1st apron. If the lineup works, this team is locked in financially for 2 years. If it doesn’t, they have pieces to trade.

Also, offering young players that can contribute now (Barnes, Gradey & Ochai) probably means they could get away with offering less picks. I think 9th pick would need to go for sure, but maybe only one other first. Masai doesn’t like to give away FRPs. And FRPs from a team with Giannis will be of less interest to the Bucks, because clearly those will be low FRPs.

Honestly, I’m not really sure what Barnes value is across the league. He’s looking more like a #3 than he is a #1. He just came off a year where he was pretty much the worst volume scorer in the league. I could see some teams being high on him and others not. The luster is wearing off. I would think any team trading for him would have questions about his ceiling and if they would actually be getting value out of him when he’s now making $40m.

If I’m the Bucks I’m not very excited to build my future team around Barnes, Dick and the 9th pick. Given their lack of other assets it’s tough to see how the Bucks would build a competitive team around that roster. We’re having a hard enough time doing it and we’re starting from a much better position than they would be given their aging roster and low quality draft assets.

I can’t imagine Barnes’ value isn’t high around the league. He has his efficiency problems, but 23 year-old with DPOY potential who averaged 19/8/6 don’t grow on trees.

Would definitely take more than just one first, but I think Barnes/Dick/Ochai + all our 1sts/swaps till 2031 is a really competitive offer and could be enough to get it done if Giannis is motivated to come to T.O.

He's definitely in the top 15 players league wide who are 24 and younger.

[TNRaps4life]

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[JB7]

Barnes value is not as high as Cade or Mobley, but I think it can definitely rebound in the right situation. Plus, he is not making 30% of the cap like those two for the next 5 seasons.

Barnes is clearly still viewed as the best player on the Raps. And the moment he is offered in the deal, it significantly narrows the competition from other teams. Then the Cavs, if interested need to offer Mobley, Rockets Amen, etc.

Keep in mind, when Masai made the Kawhi deal, he was sending out the player viewed as the best player on the Raps. Now he had given the Lowry/Derozan duo multiple playoff runs to prove whether they could make it happen. Maybe this time, he just doesn’t have that kind of patience.

It makes sense to offer Barnes. Giannis is not a short term option like Kawhi. And having a legit starting lineup around him would matter. With Barnes in the deal, they only need to offer smaller contracts like Gradey and Ochai to get to Giannis’s salary. Also, players more ready to contribute, and also young like Barnes would be appealing to the Bucks. For the Raps, they keep their starting lineup intact, just swapping Barnes for Giannis, and retain a cheap bench in Mogbo, Battle, Walter and Shead to stay below the 1st apron. If the lineup works, this team is locked in financially for 2 years. If it doesn’t, they have pieces to trade.

Also, offering young players that can contribute now (Barnes, Gradey & Ochai) probably means they could get away with offering less picks. I think 9th pick would need to go for sure, but maybe only one other first. Masai doesn’t like to give away FRPs. And FRPs from a team with Giannis will be of less interest to the Bucks, because clearly those will be low FRPs.

Honestly, I’m not really sure what Barnes value is across the league. He’s looking more like a #3 than he is a #1. He just came off a year where he was pretty much the worst volume scorer in the league. I could see some teams being high on him and others not. The luster is wearing off. I would think any team trading for him would have questions about his ceiling and if they would actually be getting value out of him when he’s now making $40m.

If I’m the Bucks I’m not very excited to build my future team around Barnes, Dick and the 9th pick. Given their lack of other assets it’s tough to see how the Bucks would build a competitive team around that roster. We’re having a hard enough time doing it and we’re starting from a much better position than they would be given their aging roster and low quality draft assets.

I can’t imagine Barnes’ value isn’t high around the league. He has his efficiency problems, but 23 year-old with DPOY potential who averaged 19/8/6 don’t grow on trees.

Would definitely take more than just one first, but I think Barnes/Dick/Ochai + all our 1sts/swaps till 2031 is a really competitive offer and could be enough to get it done if Giannis is motivated to come to T.O.

If Barnes, Gradey, Ochai & the 9th pick are offered, I honestly only think one more FRP probably needs to be offered. Masai realizes the value of holding onto future picks.

[mdenny]

I think our star hunting plans revolve around 2 things:

1) does the star actually want to come here (this really only applies to tier 1 stars like Giannis)

2) what is Barnes value around the league? I really have no idea. Last year wasn’t great but he might still be viewed at young, center piece-ish value

If Barnes’ value is still high then I think we can close the gap on some of the teams with larger asset bases. If Barnes value has taken a hit (now on max deal, scoring looks shakey) then I think we get outbid if we try to go big game hunting. If a star wants to come here that would be great but I’m still at the “believe it when I see it” point.

If we want to keep Barnes (or his value is now just “ok”) I don’t see how we get into the trading for a star business.

Barnes value is not as high as Cade or Mobley, but I think it can definitely rebound in the right situation. Plus, he is not making 30% of the cap like those two for the next 5 seasons.

Barnes is clearly still viewed as the best player on the Raps. And the moment he is offered in the deal, it significantly narrows the competition from other teams. Then the Cavs, if interested need to offer Mobley, Rockets Amen, etc.

Keep in mind, when Masai made the Kawhi deal, he was sending out the player viewed as the best player on the Raps. Now he had given the Lowry/Derozan duo multiple playoff runs to prove whether they could make it happen. Maybe this time, he just doesn’t have that kind of patience.

It makes sense to offer Barnes. Giannis is not a short term option like Kawhi. And having a legit starting lineup around him would matter. With Barnes in the deal, they only need to offer smaller contracts like Gradey and Ochai to get to Giannis’s salary. Also, players more ready to contribute, and also young like Barnes would be appealing to the Bucks. For the Raps, they keep their starting lineup intact, just swapping Barnes for Giannis, and retain a cheap bench in Mogbo, Battle, Walter and Shead to stay below the 1st apron. If the lineup works, this team is locked in financially for 2 years. If it doesn’t, they have pieces to trade.

Also, offering young players that can contribute now (Barnes, Gradey & Ochai) probably means they could get away with offering less picks. I think 9th pick would need to go for sure, but maybe only one other first. Masai doesn’t like to give away FRPs. And FRPs from a team with Giannis will be of less interest to the Bucks, because clearly those will be low FRPs.

Honestly, I’m not really sure what Barnes value is across the league. He’s looking more like a #3 than he is a #1. He just came off a year where he was pretty much the worst volume scorer in the league. I could see some teams being high on him and others not. The luster is wearing off. I would think any team trading for him would have questions about his ceiling and if they would actually be getting value out of him when he’s now making $40m.

If I’m the Bucks I’m not very excited to build my future team around Barnes, Dick and the 9th pick. Given their lack of other assets it’s tough to see how the Bucks would build a competitive team around that roster. We’re having a hard enough time doing it and we’re starting from a much better position than they would be given their aging roster and low quality draft assets.

I think you are way too wrapped up in the statistical outcome. I made a post about how certain stats are being misused and over-emphasized that was locked because I was too negative about scotty. Which is very strange....because I was trying to make the point that these statistical outcomes (efficiency in particular) don't impact league wide perceptions to the degree that ppl assume.

All to say....scotty's value amongst GMs didn't take a nosedive because his efficiency nosedived last season.

Basketball isn't like baseball. In baseball you can count things that have relatively few variables. All other sports have too many variables to depend on stats alone.