Will Masai Tank 4 Flagg?

[Chandan]

Did they really get lucky though? They were legit preparing to go after Wemby for 2 years prior....Thats more like seeing something coming that they want and doing the right steps towards getting what they want....Yeah luck plays a part...But like i said if you give yourself top 5 odds against just 14 teams ...The chances of you actually being the one team to luck out (Just like the Spurs) are still pretty good...

Its not like your going to compete against millions of different teams...Its a small pool ....So giving yourself a shot especially when there are game changing talent like Flagg/Bailey and many others in next years draft would be logical thing to strive for...Especially for a team like us who lack talent badly.

the whole concept of a lottery is based on luck.

They had a 86% chance of NOT getting Wemby.

Yes, they got lucky.

You're focusing on one team and completely disregarding the 13 other teams that didn't get him.

This may be a bit to read but follow along if you want..

30 people are in a pool for a lottery...1st place wins 20 Billion, 2nd wins 10 Billion, 3rd wins 5 Billion and so on....

Out of the 30 people in this Lottery 7 of them are multi billionaires (Playoff Contenders) 7 of them are Billionaires (The playoff mid teams) 4 of them are Multi Millionaires (The play in teams) 5 of them are Millionaires (Teams hovering around playins) 5 of them are making 500k (Teams bottoming out)

To win the lottery or give yourself the highest odds you have to quit your job for the year lose out on your yearly salary, You get lets say 50k for the year to spend in total and whoever spends the least of that 50k when the year is up has the highest odds in the Lottery for the 20 billion.

Obviously the Multi billionaires would not risk giving up their money because they make over 20 Billion already, Obviously the Billionaires would not do it because they make a little bit over 20 Billion in the year already, The multi Millionaires might have incentive but they are close to becoming billionaires.

Now we are in the Millionaires/500k Club currently....If you are in their shoes would you yourself give up the salary you make for the year and live on a budget for the chance at life changing money for yourself? Even if you don't get the top prize you still could walk away with 10 Billion, or 5 Billion and even being in the lottery itself would be better for you than where you would be at working the year for your wage...

Now what are the downsides of putting yourself in the lottery to hopefully get 20 billion? Pretty much no downside besides living on a budget for the year.

Same with giving yourself the best lottery odds in the draft...Its something worth trying to win the big prize or even 2nd,3rd hell id even say top 7 in this up coming draft because there could be billions on the line just having that pick...

Theres no downside for us and more upside for us going for it this year...

Lol now we have to do "ELI5" to convince people tanking for Wemby when you were already bottom 6 would be a good idea.

[Morse Code]

Because tanking is the sure route to success in this league. What did Atlanta get by being in the play-in?

Flagg isn't the only top prospect available.

I can already see it now, these geniuses are gonna bring up Atlanta going up in the draft all season like they did with the once in a life time Kawhi trade as evidence that pushing for mediocrity is okay.

Facts. As if the #1 overall pick is the only thing worth tanking for. Mind boggling that some people think all we need is tinkering and internal growth.

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[YogurtProducer]

Did they really get lucky though? They were legit preparing to go after Wemby for 2 years prior....Thats more like seeing something coming that they want and doing the right steps towards getting what they want....Yeah luck plays a part...But like i said if you give yourself top 5 odds against just 14 teams ...The chances of you actually being the one team to luck out (Just like the Spurs) are still pretty good...

Its not like your going to compete against millions of different teams...Its a small pool ....So giving yourself a shot especially when there are game changing talent like Flagg/Bailey and many others in next years draft would be logical thing to strive for...Especially for a team like us who lack talent badly.

the whole concept of a lottery is based on luck.

They had a 86% chance of NOT getting Wemby.

Yes, they got lucky.

You're focusing on one team and completely disregarding the 13 other teams that didn't get him.

This may be a bit to read but follow along if you want..

30 people are in a pool for a lottery...1st place wins 20 Billion, 2nd wins 10 Billion, 3rd wins 5 Billion and so on....

Out of the 30 people in this Lottery 7 of them are multi billionaires (Playoff Contenders) 7 of them are Billionaires (The playoff mid teams) 4 of them are Multi Millionaires (The play in teams) 5 of them are Millionaires (Teams hovering around playins) 5 of them are making 500k (Teams bottoming out)

To win the lottery or give yourself the highest odds you have to quit your job for the year lose out on your yearly salary, You get lets say 50k for the year to spend in total and whoever spends the least of that 50k when the year is up has the highest odds in the Lottery for the 20 billion.

Obviously the Multi billionaires would not risk giving up their money because they make over 20 Billion already, Obviously the Billionaires would not do it because they make a little bit over 20 Billion in the year already, The multi Millionaires might have incentive but they are close to becoming billionaires.

Now we are in the Millionaires/500k Club currently....If you are in their shoes would you yourself give up the salary you make for the year and live on a budget for the chance at life changing money for yourself? Even if you don't get the top prize you still could walk away with 10 Billion, or 5 Billion and even being in the lottery itself would be better for you than where you would be at working the year for your wage...

Now what are the downsides of putting yourself in the lottery to hopefully get 20 billion? Pretty much no downside besides living on a budget for the year.

Same with giving yourself the best lottery odds in the draft...Its something worth trying to win the big prize or even 2nd,3rd hell id even say top 7 in this up coming draft because there could be billions on the line just having that pick...

Theres no downside for us and more upside for us going for it this year...

Yeah, except you ignore the part that there is a 50% chance (or greater) than the cheques you receive end up bouncing.

It is not as simple as "win lottery = receive $20 billion!" it is win lottery, maybe that lottery ends up being $20 billion, maybe it ends up as $2.

OH - and the 15th place that only gets a million of whatever still has the chance of ending up getting $20 billion.

[YogurtProducer]

Flagg isn't the only top prospect available.

I can already see it now, these geniuses are gonna bring up Atlanta going up in the draft all season like they did with the once in a life time Kawhi trade as evidence that pushing for mediocrity is okay.

Facts. As if the #1 overall pick is the only thing worth tanking for. Mind boggling that some people think all we need is tinkering and internal growth.

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Winning the lottery as a 40 win team is a hell of a lot better of a situation to be in than being a 25 win team who ends up picking 5th.

Would you rather be ATL or DET right now?

[Duffman100]

It's easy, tank and we'll win.

Just ignore the Hornets, Pistons, Wizards... dozens of other examples where tanking ending up leading a team into mediocrity. But .. they just didn't tank right properly? Or didn't make the right picks? Or whatever reason you want to give to not admit to yourself that tanking isn't always the pancea and that it involves a lot of factors to actually build a winning team.

[Chandan]

It's easy, tank and we'll win.

Just ignore the Hornets, Pistons, Wizards... dozens of other examples where tanking ending up leading a team into mediocrity. But .. they just didn't tank right properly? Or didn't make the right picks? Or whatever reason you want to give to not admit to yourself that tanking isn't always the pancea and that it involves a lot of factors to actually build a winning team.

if we didn't tank we might not even have scottie barnes on the roster now.

sometimes it works sometimes it doesnt.

[Mikistan]

It's easy, tank and we'll win.

Just ignore the Hornets, Pistons, Wizards... dozens of other examples where tanking ending up leading a team into mediocrity. But .. they just didn't tank right properly? Or didn't make the right picks? Or whatever reason you want to give to not admit to yourself that tanking isn't always the pancea and that it involves a lot of factors to actually build a winning team.

if we didn't tank we might not even have scottie barnes on the roster now.

You mean that guy that ran fvv and nurse out of town and couldn't coexist with superstar siakam?

[Duffman100]

It's easy, tank and we'll win.

Just ignore the Hornets, Pistons, Wizards... dozens of other examples where tanking ending up leading a team into mediocrity. But .. they just didn't tank right properly? Or didn't make the right picks? Or whatever reason you want to give to not admit to yourself that tanking isn't always the pancea and that it involves a lot of factors to actually build a winning team.

if we didn't tank we might not even have scottie barnes on the roster now.

sometimes it works sometimes it doesnt.

More often than not it doesn't. That's the point. It's being broadcast as this "if we just do this and we'll win". The arrogance and surety of the argument is just weird.

[Chandan]

It's easy, tank and we'll win.

Just ignore the Hornets, Pistons, Wizards... dozens of other examples where tanking ending up leading a team into mediocrity. But .. they just didn't tank right properly? Or didn't make the right picks? Or whatever reason you want to give to not admit to yourself that tanking isn't always the pancea and that it involves a lot of factors to actually build a winning team.

if we didn't tank we might not even have scottie barnes on the roster now.

sometimes it works sometimes it doesnt.

More often than not it doesn't. That's the point. It's being broadcast as this "if we just do this and we'll win". The arrogance and surety of the argument is just weird.

More often than not it doesnt because there are 30 teams. Every single team building strategy doesn't work more often than not. (**** these double negative are confusing to type out )

when the plan is to fail hard so that you may win, of course there will be teams that fails. that's why it's high risk high reward. But what we are arguing about is the ultimate reward. and folks are still saying 15% isn't worth the risk.

the only easy thing to do intentionally is stay in the middle

[Duffman100]

if we didn't tank we might not even have scottie barnes on the roster now.

sometimes it works sometimes it doesnt.

More often than not it doesn't. That's the point. It's being broadcast as this "if we just do this and we'll win". The arrogance and surety of the argument is just weird.

More often than not it doesnt because there are 30 teams. Every single team building strategy doesn't work more often than not. (**** these double negative are confusing to type out )

the only easy thing to do intentionally is stay in the middle

Yes. And the teams that have won have won in a variety of ways.

[Chandan]

More often than not it doesn't. That's the point. It's being broadcast as this "if we just do this and we'll win". The arrogance and surety of the argument is just weird.

More often than not it doesnt because there are 30 teams. Every single team building strategy doesn't work more often than not. (**** these double negative are confusing to type out )

the only easy thing to do intentionally is stay in the middle

Yes. And the teams that have won have won in a variety of ways.

and each of those ways work doesn't work as often as tanking arguably. The best way, is of course exist in California.

you NEED a superstar. How do you get it?

There is literally no other way to influence this % except getting to pick players ahead of other teams.

[ArthurVandelay]

It's easy, tank and we'll win.

Just ignore the Hornets, Pistons, Wizards... dozens of other examples where tanking ending up leading a team into mediocrity. But .. they just didn't tank right properly? Or didn't make the right picks? Or whatever reason you want to give to not admit to yourself that tanking isn't always the pancea and that it involves a lot of factors to actually build a winning team.

I think the key to tanking is to already have a legit franchise cornerstone already in place, like OKC did with Shai.

Raptors are in a sweet spot to do it because they have Scottie. So even if another superstar doesn’t happen, you’re still likely to get a good starter for up to 7-9 years at the very least.

Besides already having a franchise cornerstone in place, you can’t tank for longer than 2-3 seasons. After that you’re not tanking, you’re bad.

[Chandan]

Just give me a high pick so I have a higher chance to watch those extreme freaks of nature type talent. I want to watch something spectacular every other night like during the VC era. We are way more likely to draft those extreme athletic profile in the early lottery. I dont want to watch FVV launch 30 footers 10 times a game to edge out a win mathematically 50% of the time. Its no fun.

Let's face it siakam is a magician with his spin but he's no human highlight reel. Even Barnes is more of a below the rim guy. This is an entertainment let me be entertained.

[mihaic]

I bet you guys put all your money into a savings account to collect interest instead of making investments.

You would put all your money in something that has 15% success? Might as well go to the Casino put it on roulette.

Why dont you? it's close to 50% chance black and red. In your simplistic world those are the only 2 colors and no other factors exist. It's not going to get better than that.
With investing you study the market and look at your capital. How much can you afford to lose. Do you even have much to lose. And what are the payoffs.

Even if I didn't buy Nvidia (wemby) I was happy buying AMD (Brandon Miller)

I think this analogy doesn't work. Tanking and investing are very different.

NBA lottery system is more like Lotto 6/49 with better odds. Luck based. Proper investing is not really luck based as you mention above (provided you can weather the market ups and downs and you diversify your investments). I think you misunderstand what I am trying to say.

[TorontoBarneys]

It's easy, tank and we'll win.

Just ignore the Hornets, Pistons, Wizards... dozens of other examples where tanking ending up leading a team into mediocrity. But .. they just didn't tank right properly? Or didn't make the right picks? Or whatever reason you want to give to not admit to yourself that tanking isn't always the pancea and that it involves a lot of factors to actually build a winning team.

This exact argument was made last year except it added the Magic to the mix, who are now, for obvious reasons, absent from these arguments. There will always be stinker teams perpetually stuck in the gutter.

Maybe it's not because tanking doesn't work but because their FOs (& ownership) suck? if you trust Masai to find gems outside of tanking, why not also trust him in a proper tank process? It's a bit weird.

[Chandan]

You would put all your money in something that has 15% success? Might as well go to the Casino put it on roulette.

Why dont you? it's close to 50% chance black and red. In your simplistic world those are the only 2 colors and no other factors exist. It's not going to get better than that.
With investing you study the market and look at your capital. How much can you afford to lose. Do you even have much to lose. And what are the payoffs.

Even if I didn't buy Nvidia (wemby) I was happy buying AMD (Brandon Miller)

I think this analogy doesn't work. Tanking and investing are very different.

NBA lottery system is more like Lotto 6/49 with better odds. Luck based. Proper investing is not really luck based as you mention above (provided you can weather the market ups and downs and you diversify your investments). I think you misunderstand what I am trying to say.

tanking definitely is an investment. You give away a few years of and reputation to accumulate value. You are not only banking on a #1 chance, you are banking on just getting further ahead of teams who are better than you in the standings.

[Duffman100]

It's easy, tank and we'll win.

Just ignore the Hornets, Pistons, Wizards... dozens of other examples where tanking ending up leading a team into mediocrity. But .. they just didn't tank right properly? Or didn't make the right picks? Or whatever reason you want to give to not admit to yourself that tanking isn't always the pancea and that it involves a lot of factors to actually build a winning team.

This exact argument was made last year except it added the Magic to the mix, who are now, for obvious reasons, absent from these arguments. There will always be stinker teams perpetually stuck in the gutter.

Maybe it's not because tanking doesn't work but because their FOs (& ownership) suck? if you trust Masai to find gems outside of tanking, why not also trust him in a proper tank process? It's a bit weird.

This was the Magics second time through a full rebuild. Like 10 years?

And they are still going to need to find that #1. They don't have it.

[mihaic]

Why dont you? it's close to 50% chance black and red. In your simplistic world those are the only 2 colors and no other factors exist. It's not going to get better than that.
With investing you study the market and look at your capital. How much can you afford to lose. Do you even have much to lose. And what are the payoffs.

Even if I didn't buy Nvidia (wemby) I was happy buying AMD (Brandon Miller)

I think this analogy doesn't work. Tanking and investing are very different.

NBA lottery system is more like Lotto 6/49 with better odds. Luck based. Proper investing is not really luck based as you mention above (provided you can weather the market ups and downs and you diversify your investments). I think you misunderstand what I am trying to say.

tanking definitely is an investment. You give away a few years of and reputation to accumulate value. You are not only banking on a #1 chance, you are banking on just getting further ahead of teams who are better than you in the standings.

If you wanna full out tank like the Wizzards or Spurs last year we'd need to offload 2 of Scottie, Quick and RJ. A core of Scottie Quick RJ Poeltl Dick might not be bad enough to tank. Or perhaps I am overestimating their abilities.

BTW, I am OK with the tanking, it's just that I am not sure it's possible with the current team.

If Masai wanted to go that route he would've flipped OG for picks to ensure the team can't win.

I think Masai is an opportunistic tanker not a full out tanker. I.e. he only tanks when the team he assembles is fully proven to fail, but he takes too long to evaluate the succes or failure.

Anyway I'm out, it's midnight where I am now.

[Chandan]

It's easy, tank and we'll win.

Just ignore the Hornets, Pistons, Wizards... dozens of other examples where tanking ending up leading a team into mediocrity. But .. they just didn't tank right properly? Or didn't make the right picks? Or whatever reason you want to give to not admit to yourself that tanking isn't always the pancea and that it involves a lot of factors to actually build a winning team.

This exact argument was made last year except it added the Magic to the mix, who are now, for obvious reasons, absent from these arguments. There will always be stinker teams perpetually stuck in the gutter.

Maybe it's not because tanking doesn't work but because their FOs (& ownership) suck? if you trust Masai to find gems outside of tanking, why not also trust him in a proper tank process? It's a bit weird.

This was the Magics second time through a full rebuild. Like 10 years?

And they are still going to need to find that #1. They don't have it.

They can use Gradey Dick.

[Duffman100]

This exact argument was made last year except it added the Magic to the mix, who are now, for obvious reasons, absent from these arguments. There will always be stinker teams perpetually stuck in the gutter.

Maybe it's not because tanking doesn't work but because their FOs (& ownership) suck? if you trust Masai to find gems outside of tanking, why not also trust him in a proper tank process? It's a bit weird.

This was the Magics second time through a full rebuild. Like 10 years?

And they are still going to need to find that #1. They don't have it.

They can use Gradey Dick.

Hey Reeko would agree!

Seriously though. Neither Banchero or Wagner is that guy. They have some good pieces but they'll need to do the hardest thing. Find the #1