Official Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[jaymeister15]

Why do we keep having a discussion about reopening the economy as if it would go back to normal while a whole whack of people are out sick or dead? Like, even if we did this stupid "let's sacrifice a bunch of people for stock prices" plan, the economy would still actually be terrible until the disease can be managed.

I can't speak for others, but I'm not overly concerned about stock prices and I'm not expecting things to go back to normal tomorrow. I'm more concerned about the number of local small to medium sized businesses that are at risk of closing for good, and the damage that is going to cause. I'm also concerned about the affect the lockdown is having on thousands of peoples mental health---particularly people that were already struggling with it (I've personally seen one person I know take a serious, dangerous stepback directly due to the lockdown measures, and I can't imagine that is uncommon).

It's just about inevitable that there will be some sort of spike in cases when things start to open up, but I don't think that spike is impossible to manage. Right now, there are millions of people every week going out in public to visit or to work at the places that are still open (grocery stores, LCBO, beer store, construction sites etc.). With all those services open, there are a total of 878 people hospitalized and 243 in the ICU due to Corona across the province today. Majority of hospitals are not near capacity.

I'm not expecting or hoping to have 50,000 at the Rogers Centre next week, but If the government were to start by allowing small, low risk businesses to open up, following the same guidelines (i.e. limiting number of people in the store), it doesn't seem likely there will be a large spike.

Any death is tragic and my point isn't to disregard that, but when the average age of people being killed by the disease in the country is 80+ and the majority of deaths are occurring in long term care homes, at what are we allowed to ask for the focus to shift from having a lockdown of the whole population to opening back up while still isolating/protecting the minority that are high risk?

My frustration is with the lack of info given regarding their plan to re-open, and that the guidelines to start ending the lockdown seem to shift day to day.

[beanbag]

Why do we keep having a discussion about reopening the economy as if it would go back to normal while a whole whack of people are out sick or dead? Like, even if we did this stupid "let's sacrifice a bunch of people for stock prices" plan, the economy would still actually be terrible until the disease can be managed.

I can't speak for others, but I'm not overly concerned about stock prices and I'm not expecting things to go back to normal tomorrow. I'm more concerned about the number of local small to medium sized businesses that are at risk of closing for good, and the damage that is going to cause. I'm also concerned about the affect the lockdown is having on thousands of peoples mental health---particularly people that were already struggling with it (I've personally seen one person I know take a serious, dangerous stepback directly due to the lockdown measures, and I can't imagine that is uncommon).

It's just about inevitable that there will be some sort of spike in cases when things start to open up, but I don't think that spike is impossible to manage. Right now, there are millions of people every week going out in public to visit or to work at the places that are still open (grocery stores, LCBO, beer store, construction sites etc.). With all those services open, there are a total of 878 people hospitalized and 243 in the ICU due to Corona across the province today. Majority of hospitals are not near capacity.

I'm not expecting or hoping to have 50,000 at the Rogers Centre next week, but If the government were to start by allowing small, low risk businesses to open up, following the same guidelines (i.e. limiting number of people in the store), it doesn't seem likely there will be a large spike.

Any death is tragic and my point isn't to disregard that, but when the average age of people being killed by the disease in the country is 80+ and the majority of deaths are occurring in long term care homes, at what are we allowed to ask for the focus to shift from having a lockdown of the whole population to opening back up while still isolating/protecting the minority that are high risk?

My frustration is with the lack of info given regarding their plan to re-open, and that the guidelines to start ending the lockdown seem to shift day to day.

These are fair points, but I don't see how allowing businesses to open will save them.

Simply allowing places to open doesn't mean people as a whole won't continue to stay inside. Even before the forced closure of businesses, many of them were electing to shut down as a cost saving measure because people were not going outside. That isn't going to end anytime soon, whether or not businesses are allowed to reopen.

[SFour]

Why do we keep having a discussion about reopening the economy as if it would go back to normal while a whole whack of people are out sick or dead? Like, even if we did this stupid "let's sacrifice a bunch of people for stock prices" plan, the economy would still actually be terrible until the disease can be managed.

I can't speak for others, but I'm not overly concerned about stock prices and I'm not expecting things to go back to normal tomorrow. I'm more concerned about the number of local small to medium sized businesses that are at risk of closing for good, and the damage that is going to cause. I'm also concerned about the affect the lockdown is having on thousands of peoples mental health---particularly people that were already struggling with it (I've personally seen one person I know take a serious, dangerous stepback directly due to the lockdown measures, and I can't imagine that is uncommon).

It's just about inevitable that there will be some sort of spike in cases when things start to open up, but I don't think that spike is impossible to manage. Right now, there are millions of people every week going out in public to visit or to work at the places that are still open (grocery stores, LCBO, beer store, construction sites etc.). With all those services open, there are a total of 878 people hospitalized and 243 in the ICU due to Corona across the province today. Majority of hospitals are not near capacity.

I'm not expecting or hoping to have 50,000 at the Rogers Centre next week, but If the government were to start by allowing small, low risk businesses to open up, following the same guidelines (i.e. limiting number of people in the store), it doesn't seem likely there will be a large spike.

Any death is tragic and my point isn't to disregard that, but when the average age of people being killed by the disease in the country is 80+ and the majority of deaths are occurring in long term care homes, at what are we allowed to ask for the focus to shift from having a lockdown of the whole population to opening back up while still isolating/protecting the minority that are high risk?

My frustration is with the lack of info given regarding their plan to re-open, and that the guidelines to start ending the lockdown seem to shift day to day.

These are fair points, but I don't see how allowing businesses to open will save them.

Simply allowing places to open doesn't mean people as a whole won't continue to stay inside. Even before the forced closure of businesses, many of them were electing to shut down as a cost saving measure because people were not going outside. That isn't going to end anytime soon, whether or not businesses are allowed to reopen.

Exactly...just because the lockdown is lifted doesn't mean things will go back to normal...for the most part people will still be paranoid and avoid going to places like restaurants or movie theaters...even public gyms.

Just look at Wuhan

Wuhan’s 11 Million People Are Free to Dine Out. Yet They Aren’t
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-15/wuhan-s-life-after-lockdown-isn-t-business-as-usual

“People in the past dined out with their colleagues in their lunch hour, now they’re all getting lunchboxes,” he says, sitting in a booth at an empty Sichuan restaurant he operates. “They’re more likely to cook at home than go out.”

Of the 10 restaurants Xiong’s company, Bainianfeng Catering Management Co., operated before the outbreak, none have reopened for dining in. And while three have resumed making food deliveries, Xiong has already decided to shutter three other locations for good because he expects fewer customers. Now the 40-year-old entrepreneur and his business partners are trying to decide what to do long term. Half of Bainianfeng’s restaurants were hotpot joints, where groups of diners cook raw meat and vegetables in communal pots of boiling broth—the sort of places customers now are likely to avoid. “There will be a significant downturn in consumption,” Xiong says, predicting the city’s hospitality scene will see a shakeout.

[yogimvp]

why are students getting a free handout when most of them live at home with their parents?

guess who is gonna have to pay for that $9 billion...

[beanbag]

why are students getting a free handout when most of them live at home with their parents?

guess who is gonna have to pay for that $9 billion...

.....

[NinjaBro]

why are students getting a free handout when most of them live at home with their parents?

guess who is gonna have to pay for that $9 billion...

[Kevin Willis]

why are students getting a free handout when most of them live at home with their parents?

guess who is gonna have to pay for that $9 billion...

Not all students. Post secondary students making under a cerain amount. That includes college students - mostly - who would normally work to support themselves but can't. Plus it's taxable income for next year, some of that money is coming back.

This is not universal basic income, it is not free money.

[Fairview4Life]

why are students getting a free handout when most of them live at home with their parents?

guess who is gonna have to pay for that $9 billion...

Those will be the people paying taxes to fund your old ass in a nursing home.

[KrazyP]

why are students getting a free handout when most of them live at home with their parents?

guess who is gonna have to pay for that $9 billion...

Not all students. Post secondary students making under a cerain amount. That includes college students - mostly - who would normally work to support themselves but can't. Plus it's taxable income for next year, some of that money is coming back.

This is not universal basic income, it is not free money.

Would the handout not be more logical to give out as an interest free loan vs free cash?

[jimmy keys]

why are students getting a free handout when most of them live at home with their parents?

guess who is gonna have to pay for that $9 billion...

Umm them, since they will enter the work force at some point in the near future?

[Pointgod]

This is sort of what's happening in Singapore right now. For the most part, they thought they had the virus contained and started to ease up on the lockdown.

They tested their own citizens just fine but they didn't fully account for their migrant workers - who lived in crowded conditions. Now Singapore is dealing with a huge spike in cases.

To put it into perspective, two weeks ago they were sitting roughly at ~1200-1300 total cases. Today they're near the 10,000 mark with the last two days of 1000+ cases.

The bolded is what people that just repeat talking points about opening the economy need to understand. Relax too much and cases will just spike again. I don’t know what’s wrong with gradually opening things up once certain criteria is in place.

That is false. I recognize a spike in cases is inevitable absent continued extreme measures indefinitely. These measures are causing economic collapse that absolutely will kill people, more than will die from covid. Let's ignore the mental health and domestic violence and deaths of despair resulting from the hopelessness that comes from something worse than the great depression for now - we can focus just on our ability to provide healthcare in the future. This collapse will require severe austerity or inflation to pay off and given that most of our public spending goes to healthcare already, that means deep healthcare cuts which will cost lives. It's the very fact that cases will spike again as soon as we stop the measures that makes the measures unsustainable. If the truth were that a couple of months of lockdown would eradicate the disease that would be a different story. But if the goal is to never have a second spike, that means a lockdown until a vaccine, which will cause economic destruction orders of magnitude greater than has already occurred. It is not sustainable.

The whole point of the lockdown is to buy time so that our healthcare system isn’t overwhelmed and the government can put measures in place to track and contain. So if we start relaxing social distancing and opening things up in a hurry you risk cases spiking again and coinciding with the high probability of another spike in the fall compounded with flu season. The economy is going to be the least of your worries if this thing gets out of control around flu season.

As for the economy, if you understand consumer sentiment, I don’t know what you expect it to go back to. The airline industry is completely ****. Tourism as well. Restaurants are going to be radically different as well. This exactly the time that the government should be investing in healthcare and providing direct payments to encourage people to stay home instead of taking unnecessary risks by going back to work when the proper safety precautions haven’t been put in place. The government should also increase services for mental health and domestic violence as well. A strong government response is what’s going to get us through this.

[Concernedcad]

why are students getting a free handout when most of them live at home with their parents?

guess who is gonna have to pay for that $9 billion...

You see. Students get an education. Then they get a job. Then they become tax payers and the process continues.

[hankscorpioLA]

Numbers keep looking good! Everyone's sacrifices have really helped with the curve. Talks in the next week or so are definitely going to focus on how to start re-opening things. I have to say I have no idea how they are going to manage this in Toronto. I won't take the TTC for the rest of the summer for sure, I'd rather walk the 50 min to work then get stuck on the 501 streetcar.

They are going to have to start with re-opening though. The numbers are trending positively and people are starting to lose it. Add in the fact that the median age of death in Toronto is 85, and you have most of the population itching to go back and earn their livelihoods.

I think we are all going to have to live with a certain amount of risk in the next year or so. Just got to keep up safe practices and be aware of others. Gonna be tough but Ontario has done a hell of a job so far.

I'm sorry...but what?

Ontario's growth rate has slowed, but the number of active cases is still rising. And the death count has doubled in the past week.

When you start to see a decline in active cases, then you are about two weeks from the earliest you could possibly open the economy.

[RalphWiggum]

why are students getting a free handout when most of them live at home with their parents?

guess who is gonna have to pay for that $9 billion...

Can't tell if serious.

[mtcan]

Why do we keep having a discussion about reopening the economy as if it would go back to normal while a whole whack of people are out sick or dead? Like, even if we did this stupid "let's sacrifice a bunch of people for stock prices" plan, the economy would still actually be terrible until the disease can be managed.

I can't speak for others, but I'm not overly concerned about stock prices and I'm not expecting things to go back to normal tomorrow. I'm more concerned about the number of local small to medium sized businesses that are at risk of closing for good, and the damage that is going to cause. I'm also concerned about the affect the lockdown is having on thousands of peoples mental health---particularly people that were already struggling with it (I've personally seen one person I know take a serious, dangerous stepback directly due to the lockdown measures, and I can't imagine that is uncommon).

It's just about inevitable that there will be some sort of spike in cases when things start to open up, but I don't think that spike is impossible to manage. Right now, there are millions of people every week going out in public to visit or to work at the places that are still open (grocery stores, LCBO, beer store, construction sites etc.). With all those services open, there are a total of 878 people hospitalized and 243 in the ICU due to Corona across the province today. Majority of hospitals are not near capacity.

I'm not expecting or hoping to have 50,000 at the Rogers Centre next week, but If the government were to start by allowing small, low risk businesses to open up, following the same guidelines (i.e. limiting number of people in the store), it doesn't seem likely there will be a large spike.

Any death is tragic and my point isn't to disregard that, but when the average age of people being killed by the disease in the country is 80+ and the majority of deaths are occurring in long term care homes, at what are we allowed to ask for the focus to shift from having a lockdown of the whole population to opening back up while still isolating/protecting the minority that are high risk?

My frustration is with the lack of info given regarding their plan to re-open, and that the guidelines to start ending the lockdown seem to shift day to day.

The reason why majority of hospitals are not near capacity is because of the social distancing measures...and we hope to keep it that way. That is the whole point of "flattening the curve"...so hospitals don't end up overflowing and end up having to decide who gets to live and who gets to die...like in Italy. Things would look a lot worse in Ontario and Canada if we hadn't shut things down for the last 5 weeks.

And to your point that average age of people being killed being 80+...in long term care facilities...there is still significant community spread...and that is WITH social distancing measures in place. Now that could be among the people who are considered essential workers who have to be in public spaces or that everyone else are complete idiots that don't wish to social distance...whatever the case may be...if you give people the hint that it's ok to be out and about while there is still community spread...the numbers will worsen significantly and quickly. The margins are THAT small.

There is no such thing as half-measures...the idea of reopening even small businesses and hoping for the best is a risk to the public...and isn't worth considering in the short term...not while the country is still reporting 1000+ cases per day and Ontario is accounting for 500+ per day alone.

[SFour]

why are students getting a free handout when most of them live at home with their parents?

guess who is gonna have to pay for that $9 billion...

You see. Students get an education. Then they get a job. Then they become tax payers and the process continues.

I'm pretty sure students are already tax payers, and a lot of students work either in the summer or during school....the "free handouts" is just our tax money being given back which we'll have to pay back eventually.

[Westside Gunn]

I haven't read in detail but I'm sure you'll have to meet some requirements before you get a piece of that 9 billion.

why are students getting a free handout when most of them live at home with their parents?

guess who is gonna have to pay for that $9 billion...

You see. Students get an education. Then they get a job. Then they become tax payers and the process continues.

The process continues, but you don't want to burden future generations with paying so much tax they either end up leaving the country or don't have the motivation to work hard anymore.

I hope I'm wrong, but after this is over, we will see a lot of cuts happening when it comes to social services.

I'm all for nationalizing our natural resources so we keep some of that money for our social programs.

[Wo1verine]

Ontario will be opened in May sometime that much is obvious put strict laws in place to protect the very old and lets open up slowly.

I'm excited just for a little normalcy personally!

Also Quebec giving parents the option to send kids back to school in May - I'm guessing Ford does the same in the very near future.

[kasrahimi]

I wouldn’t be surprised if Ontario starts opening up slowly, with lots of measures in place, sometime this summer. It’s still too early but I wouldn’t be surprised if by June/July the lockdown is slowly lifted - maybe not entirely but at least partially. Like other countries, it looks like we’re trying to get this thing under control (as much as possible right now) while we put new measures in place and buy time to ramp up health care supplies/capacities/maybe even some new medicine in the near future.

Obviously, certain industries (bars/resto/nightclubs/live events/travel/hotels) are going to be impacted the most and won’t be back to “normal” any time soon. Not until there’s a vaccine at least. And even then it’ll be a slow process to get people comfortable in these settings again.

However, there’s still lots of other businesses out there that may be able to eventually start operating again with measures and restrictions in place (similar to grocery stores). As someone else mentioned, grocery stores have been open (of course, they’re essential) and we’ve done a good job managing that.

Will everyone rush to go out? Probably not. But at the same time, I think there will be a higher level of activity than we have now. I own a small retail/wholesale business and although we’ve been closed to the public due to the pandemic, I’ve had clients calling, emailing and messaging every week to come in but we’ve had to turn them away. Just saying that not everyone is absolutely mortified to ever leave their home again. Consider the grocery store example as I mentioned. Eventually, many will adjust accordingly until there’s a vaccine, hopefully.

Everything I wrote is assuming that we continue to flatten the curve in Canada and Ontario specifically. It’s too early but there’s still a ways to go until June/July. If anything, I’m more worried about the 2nd wave at this point but I don’t think there’s any way that these restrictions remain in place fully until there’s a vaccine. Just my 2 cents.

[Kevin Willis]

why are students getting a free handout when most of them live at home with their parents?

guess who is gonna have to pay for that $9 billion...

Not all students. Post secondary students making under a cerain amount. That includes college students - mostly - who would normally work to support themselves but can't. Plus it's taxable income for next year, some of that money is coming back.

This is not universal basic income, it is not free money.

Would the handout not be more logical to give out as an interest free loan vs free cash?

That is a good point. The counter argument is they're trying to reduce student loans not add another one to it.