2023 Draft Discussion Part 6

[DreamTeam09]

Is Wallace like a younger Davion Mitchell? Anyone getting that vibe?

Wallace is 20x the player Davion was at the same age.

True which is why I’m saying younger Davion. I didn’t want Davion that draft because I felt like he reached his ceiling already due to his age.

Age is not what caps a ceiling when you're talking about young players, especially ones on their rookie contracts. If Davion improves his shooting, his ceiling goes to a whole new level.

[Yallbecrazy]

Compared to Davion's senior season: Cason rebounds better offensively and defensively, gets more stocks (3.0 v 2.7), shoots free throws 10% better.

Free throw rates are the same, Cason's competition was a little better. Davion shot much better from the field, although his 3pt% was very likely a fluke because of his 3pt% in previous seasons and his free throw %.

Mitchell was also a senior heavy team that was incredible all around, had excellent spacing and 3pt shooting from everyone:
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/baylor/men/2021.html

Wallace was on a pretty meh offensive team without much spacing at all:

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/kentucky/men/2023.html

[Yallbecrazy]

I'm starting to wonder if relative BPM to teammates in similar positions could be a good future indicator.
A perimeter player's oBPM relative to other perimeter guys on his team seems like it could translate well.
I think it's much harder for bigs since their BPM is heavily influenced by rebounding numbers.

[Syd-TK3]

Lots of low ceiling and high upside talk in here now but everyone was so against Keyonte before lol

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Jalen Suggs: 14.4 PPG / 4.5 AST / 5.3 REB / 50.3 FG / 33.7 3PT / 75.4 FT / 9.4 BPM

C Wallace: 11.7 PPG / 4.3 AST / 3.7 REB / 44.6 FG / 34.6 3PT / 75.4 FT / 7.7 BPM

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Compared to Davion's senior season: Cason rebounds better offensively and defensively, gets more stocks (3.0 v 2.7), shoots free throws 10% better.

Free throw rates are the same, Cason's competition was a little better. Davion shot much better from the field, although his 3pt% was very likely a fluke because of his 3pt% in previous seasons and his free throw %.

Mitchell was also a senior heavy team that was incredible all around, had excellent spacing and 3pt shooting from everyone:
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/baylor/men/2021.html

Wallace was on a pretty meh offensive team without much spacing at all:

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/kentucky/men/2023.html

Bottom line is Cason played in Calipari's ridiculous offense, throw all numbers out the window.

[Yallbecrazy]

Jalen Suggs: 14.4 PPG / 4.5 AST / 5.3 REB / 50.3 FG / 33.7 3PT / 75.4 FT / 9.4 BPM

C Wallace: 11.7 PPG / 4.3 AST / 3.7 REB / 44.6 FG / 34.6 3PT / 75.4 FT / 7.7 BPM

Suggs was also an elite prospect and wasn't bad last year, I think his rookie year clouded our judgement of him as a giant bust.
That was also a much stronger draft and Suggs wasn't the best player on the team either and 4 months older. Suggs played with terrific spacing against significantly worse competition too which helped his offensive numbers a lot, Cason played with poor spacing in probably the best defensive conference in college basketball.

[OakleyDokely]

Kawhi wouldn't be Kawhi if he wasn't 6'8 with a 7'2 wingspan and 10 inch hands. He's a complete outlier as well.

Cason should be strong defensively out of the gate. But he's going to be limited to defending mostly guards which will always make him a lower leverage defender compared to rim protectors or guys who can defend big elite wings.

The offense will likely be very meh especially early on because he isn't a great shooter or shot creator.

I think he evolves into a solid catch and shoot threat and will likely become a good 3 and D starter. He's a fine pick in the back half of the lottery but I'd rather take a bigger swing.

[WuTang_CMB]

But let’s talk about Kobe Bufkin here for a second. There’s an interesting world in which you could argue that Bufkin could present the “best of both worlds” when it comes to what the Raptors have a history of targeting. He measured in at 6’4.5” at the NBA Draft combine WITHOUT shoes. Given the fact that he was listed at 6’4” before the combine, that was a thrilling development. He also measured in with a 6’7.75” wingspan, something that pops often on tape. Bufkin has the versatility on both sides of the ball that could become extremely desirable for the front office for the Raptors.

He won’t turn 20 years old until September, despite being a sophomore. There’s some serious upside with Bufkin, as we’ve both thrown around the name Mike Conley when it comes to the talented prospect. There’s definitely a world in which the Raptors say enough is enough and look to add some lethal floor spacing on the wings. But that also brings in the conversation of the future involving OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam.

For now, Toronto looks like a team that will be one worth paying close attention to moving forward. The Raptors are always a wildcard on draft night and it’s going to be fascinating to see what the next step in their roster construction will be.

I dont think Cason falls. Still happy with Bufkin if he's the selection.

[720]

Lots of low ceiling and high upside talk in here now but everyone was so against Keyonte before lol

I wouldn’t be totally against Keyonte. His archetype usually doesn’t do well in the league (bad efficiency shooting wise, not elite in either athletic ability or defense) but I’m fine with taking a high risk high reward guy over a low ceiling but high floor prospect.

[OakleyDokely]

Jalen Suggs: 14.4 PPG / 4.5 AST / 5.3 REB / 50.3 FG / 33.7 3PT / 75.4 FT / 9.4 BPM

C Wallace: 11.7 PPG / 4.3 AST / 3.7 REB / 44.6 FG / 34.6 3PT / 75.4 FT / 7.7 BPM

Suggs was also an elite prospect and wasn't bad last year, I think his rookie year clouded our judgement of him as a giant bust.
That was also a much stronger draft and Suggs wasn't the best player on the team either and 4 months older. Suggs played with terrific spacing against significantly worse competition too which helped his offensive numbers a lot, Cason played with poor spacing in probably the best defensive conference in college basketball.

I like Suggs more than others. The defense is already good and his catch and shoot game will probably come around at some point. I still think he projects as a solid starter and your 4th/5th/6th best player. I think Cason will have similar impact.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Kawhi wouldn't be Kawhi if he wasn't 6'8 with a 7'2 wingspan and 10 inch hands. He's a complete outlier as well.

Cason should be strong defensively out of the gate. But he's going to be limited to defending mostly guards which will always make him a lower leverage defender compared to rim protectors or guys who can defend big elite wings.

The offense will likely be very meh especially early on because he isn't a great shooter or shot creator.

I think he evolves into a solid catch and shoot threat and will likely become a good 3 and D starter. He's a fine pick in the back half of the lottery but I'd rather take a bigger swing.

https://www.espn.com/nba/stats/player/_/season/2023/seasontype/2/position/point-guard

how many people on that list can defend big elite wings well?

[OakleyDokely]

Kawhi wouldn't be Kawhi if he wasn't 6'8 with a 7'2 wingspan and 10 inch hands. He's a complete outlier as well.

Cason should be strong defensively out of the gate. But he's going to be limited to defending mostly guards which will always make him a lower leverage defender compared to rim protectors or guys who can defend big elite wings.

The offense will likely be very meh especially early on because he isn't a great shooter or shot creator.

I think he evolves into a solid catch and shoot threat and will likely become a good 3 and D starter. He's a fine pick in the back half of the lottery but I'd rather take a bigger swing.

https://www.espn.com/nba/stats/player/_/season/2023/seasontype/2/position/point-guard

how many people on that list can defend big elite wings well?

A lot of those guys are elite offensive players.

If Cason had elite offensive potential, his defense wouldn't matter nearly as much.

[Syd-TK3]

Lots of low ceiling and high upside talk in here now but everyone was so against Keyonte before lol

I wouldn’t be totally against Keyonte. His archetype usually doesn’t do well in the league (bad efficiency shooting wise, not elite in either athletic ability or defense) but I’m fine with taking a high risk high reward guy over a low ceiling but high floor prospect.

I'm just bringing him up cause of the recent talk lol. But Imo his scoring upside is easily the highest outta the guards in our range and is the ideal fit for Scottie's future in a jokic/murray dynamic

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Also Wallace is an SEC player and Suggs was a WCC player who played on an absolutely loaded team with 3 current other NBA players (after this draft that total might actually be at 5). Might not be a single other NBA player on Kentucky's roster this past year if Tshiebwe doesn't make it.

[PhilBlackson]

Jalen Suggs: 14.4 PPG / 4.5 AST / 5.3 REB / 50.3 FG / 33.7 3PT / 75.4 FT / 9.4 BPM

C Wallace: 11.7 PPG / 4.3 AST / 3.7 REB / 44.6 FG / 34.6 3PT / 75.4 FT / 7.7 BPM

Please Bilal be our “Barnes” this year!

Although Presti probably gonna get us back for taking Scottie (who they were rumored to want & obv went and took the guy Masai liked, Giddey).

I don’t care if Cason is the next Marcus Smart, another Smart type of player isn’t going to take us to the next level…just continue to stay on the treadmill.

[OakleyDokely]

Jalen Suggs: 14.4 PPG / 4.5 AST / 5.3 REB / 50.3 FG / 33.7 3PT / 75.4 FT / 9.4 BPM

C Wallace: 11.7 PPG / 4.3 AST / 3.7 REB / 44.6 FG / 34.6 3PT / 75.4 FT / 7.7 BPM

Please Bilal be our “Barnes” this year!

Although Presti probably gonna get us back for taking Scottie (who they were rumored to want & obv went and took the guy Masai liked, Giddey).

I don’t care if Cason is the next Marcus Smart, another Smart type of player isn’t going to take us to the next level…just continue to stay on the treadmill.

I think Miller / Bilal go 12/13 in some order. But with OKC and TOR, you never really know.


Also think one or both of those guys might not even reach OKC/TOR. Bilal is raising his stock with his current performance.

[BoyzNTheHood]

I get the feeling we're taking Leonard Miller, which would be underwhelming after all the buildup, but he's solid. I can also see us taking Amari Bailey. He doesn't fit our typical type, but he's in the similar category as Bufkin, Drake ties, and he's a good defender.

[PhilBlackson]

Jalen Suggs: 14.4 PPG / 4.5 AST / 5.3 REB / 50.3 FG / 33.7 3PT / 75.4 FT / 9.4 BPM

C Wallace: 11.7 PPG / 4.3 AST / 3.7 REB / 44.6 FG / 34.6 3PT / 75.4 FT / 7.7 BPM

Please Bilal be our “Barnes” this year!

Although Presti probably gonna get us back for taking Scottie (who they were rumored to want & obv went and took the guy Masai liked, Giddey).

I don’t care if Cason is the next Marcus Smart, another Smart type of player isn’t going to take us to the next level…just continue to stay on the treadmill.

I think Miller / Bilal go 12/13 in some order. But with OKC and TOR, you never really know.


Also think one or both of those guys might not even reach OKC/TOR. Bilal is raising his stock with his current performance.

Yeah I’m pretty much letting go of hope for Bilal and refuse to watch any new footage and get attached to the idea lol I can already feel the disappointment. Especially when there was a buzz OKC liked both Poku & Dieng before those drafts and OKC went outta their way to trade up to get em. Bilal is gonna fall right into their laps this time unless Ainge takes a leap of faith but I think Utah takes one of a “safer” bets like Ausar or Walker.

People keep talking about them drafting a point guard or Gradey to Utah as if Danny didn’t target wings like Tatum & Brown before. He knows he has a boatload of picks, so I don’t completely rule him out rolling the dice although again I think he takes a safer wing prospect.

So on to Sidy, George, Bufkin & Hawkins for me lol unfortunately..

[ATLTimekeeper]

I get the feeling we're taking Leonard Miller, which would be underwhelming after all the buildup, but he's solid. I can also see us taking Amari Bailey. He doesn't fit our typical type, but he's in the similar category as Bufkin, Drake ties, and he's a good defender.

You guys think one of the best drafting teams in the last decade is letting Drake influence the pick

I don't see why Miller is such a downer for people here, but I get that people are starting to dig in their heels now. I have as well. To me he does a lot of bankable things (rebound, motor, interior touch) and then there's some size to skill appeal as well.