Tank World Order V (Rise of the Phoenix)

[PhilBlackson]

We need to be in that top 5 at least on draft lottery for me to be satisfied...Because we would have such a good chance to end up with a top pick and even if we end up top 5 i still wouldn't be mad because i like 5 guys in this draft and i would be excited to add any one of them...

My fear is we end up with the 6th, 7th pick, draft a decent player but ends up not being an all star type of guy....Barnes doesn't pan out as a number 1 guy and we end up having to start over again in 5 years....Thats how you become the Pistons...

Id be fine with Masai trying to legit Bottom out like the Wizards/Nets for this one year if it means we get a top 5 pick in this stacked draft....

A way to do it is Darko simply Playing the bench rookies alot of mins, Trade Yak, Boucher, Brown.... Let Quickley/Barrett/Barnes get all the stats they want and let the young guys get extended time during games....I think theres a way we out tank teams to get a top 5 pick odds

I've said since before the last draft that I almost was hoping we kept our pick because I'll say it again, I don't think we're getting a high pick and that unless we trade Yak, we're going to end up in the Play In (period...and depending on how much chemistry they build don't rule out making it...).

I'm telling you we're picking somewhere between 11-14.

We're just going to have to hope that one of Johnson, Powell or Pate are there and that we can turn them into a star wing. I don't think this team is anywhere near as bad as a bunch of you do. Being top 6-7 would actually be an incredible result imo.

[Vampirate]

We need to be in that top 5 at least on draft lottery for me to be satisfied...Because we would have such a good chance to end up with a top pick and even if we end up top 5 i still wouldn't be mad because i like 5 guys in this draft and i would be excited to add any one of them...

My fear is we end up with the 6th, 7th pick, draft a decent player but ends up not being an all star type of guy....Barnes doesn't pan out as a number 1 guy and we end up having to start over again in 5 years....Thats how you become the Pistons...

Id be fine with Masai trying to legit Bottom out like the Wizards/Nets for this one year if it means we get a top 5 pick in this stacked draft....

A way to do it is Darko simply Playing the bench rookies alot of mins, Trade Yak, Boucher, Brown.... Let Quickley/Barrett/Barnes get all the stats they want and let the young guys get extended time during games....I think theres a way we out tank teams to get a top 5 pick odds

I've said since before the last draft that I almost was hoping we kept our pick because I'll say it again, I don't think we're getting a high pick and that unless we trade Yak, we're going to end up in the Play In (period...and depending on how much chemistry they build don't rule out making it...).

I'm telling you we're picking somewhere between 11-14.

We're just going to have to hope that one of Johnson, Powell or Pate are there and that we can turn them into a star wing. I don't think this team is anywhere near as bad as a bunch of you do. Being top 6-7 would actually be an incredible result imo.

It essentially just boils down to having Barnes on this team, if he has taken another leap, then yeah lol.

Kind of a double edged sword because you both want Barnes to take the next step and have a high pick, but one just makes the other much less likely.

[PhilBlackson]

We need to be in that top 5 at least on draft lottery for me to be satisfied...Because we would have such a good chance to end up with a top pick and even if we end up top 5 i still wouldn't be mad because i like 5 guys in this draft and i would be excited to add any one of them...

My fear is we end up with the 6th, 7th pick, draft a decent player but ends up not being an all star type of guy....Barnes doesn't pan out as a number 1 guy and we end up having to start over again in 5 years....Thats how you become the Pistons...

Id be fine with Masai trying to legit Bottom out like the Wizards/Nets for this one year if it means we get a top 5 pick in this stacked draft....

A way to do it is Darko simply Playing the bench rookies alot of mins, Trade Yak, Boucher, Brown.... Let Quickley/Barrett/Barnes get all the stats they want and let the young guys get extended time during games....I think theres a way we out tank teams to get a top 5 pick odds

I've said since before the last draft that I almost was hoping we kept our pick because I'll say it again, I don't think we're getting a high pick and that unless we trade Yak, we're going to end up in the Play In (period...and depending on how much chemistry they build don't rule out making it...).

I'm telling you we're picking somewhere between 11-14.

We're just going to have to hope that one of Johnson, Powell or Pate are there and that we can turn them into a star wing. I don't think this team is anywhere near as bad as a bunch of you do. Being top 6-7 would actually be an incredible result imo.

It essentially just boils down to having Barnes on this team, if he has taken another leap, then yeah lol.

Kind of a double edged sword because you both want Barnes to take the next step and have a high pick, but one just makes the other much less likely.

Yes buuuut I still believe trading Poeltl could easily flip the season...it's not coincidence that we went from 6th in the draft to battling for the PlayIn even with the previous core. Yak's backline defence changes everything for the team on that end. It allows guys like Mitchell, Shead, Ochai etc to be aggressive with their on ball pressure or else it would be a red carpet lol

Trade him away and it won't matter if guys are improving offensively or if the ball pressure is better...or at least it won't matter as much as it would've if they had good rim protection (and rebounding) that Yak provides, the team just won't be able to win consistently like that. Just look at the team's record with and without him. We're one of THE worst teams without him (like bottom 3-5) and closer to a .500 or better team with him.

Now add to that the added defensive workload potentially slowing down Scottie/lead to a little bit of bumps/bruises/few more games out with different "soreness"...there's a pretty easy path to create to tank.

BUT don't be surprised that if the team is doing a little bit better than expected that MLSE doesn't "persuade" Masai to look back into the Cam Johnson type of trades they already explored come trade deadline to lock in that Play In/Playoff push lol I'm telling you they need not tempt fate and just get Yak tfoh asap. If not the same guys that some of you aren't in love with outside of the top 5 (ie/ Drake Powell, Tre Johnson, Ben Saraf) are gonna be the same ones majority are praying are even still on the board when we draft lol smh.

#TRADEYAKASAP

[YogurtProducer]

What are you talking about?

The worst team in the league has the following odds:
Exactly 52.1 percent chance at a top 4 pick (i.e. ~50/50)
That's why the Detroit Pistons, despite being THE WORST team record wise in the league the last couple years, have NOT picked in the top 4 in either draft.

The 2nd and 3rd worst teams have the same chances as the worst for a top 4 pick.

At the beginning of the draft is the only time anything matters. Your additive comment is non-sense.

50% is no guarantee of anything. That's the point here. The olden days all but guaranteed top picks for the worst team or two. Its now flattened.

You're basically just as likely to see a 5-13 team pick 1st as a top 4 worst team. That's substantially different.

No you literally are not, that's why the odds are different. A top 3 worst team has 14x the chance than a 13th team. What even is this argument.

The beginning of the draft matters if it was all done in parallel, but it's not. It's done sequentially. Which means once the 1st OA pick is determined then the odds change for the remainder of the picks. This is a basic concept.

You are unable to understand basic sentences. I clearly grouped the 1-4 teams and the 5-13 teams as groups of combined odds. Hence why teams below the top4 are regularly supplanting the top 4 teams.

Come on man. You must be trolling

Yeah, 56.5% chance it is a team 1st thru 4th and 43.5% chance it is not.

That being said, Scase is also right individually and not grouped the odds are significantly better for higher end teams.

Then the whole argument can come into is the current roster + a 5% chance or whatever a better route forward to a blown up roster + a 14% chance. That is the part that is always ignored by the TwO crowd.

[ItsDanger]

Is the goal to be mediocre or strive to be something better?

Read on Twitter

[Ell Curry]

We need to be in that top 5 at least on draft lottery for me to be satisfied...Because we would have such a good chance to end up with a top pick and even if we end up top 5 i still wouldn't be mad because i like 5 guys in this draft and i would be excited to add any one of them...

My fear is we end up with the 6th, 7th pick, draft a decent player but ends up not being an all star type of guy....Barnes doesn't pan out as a number 1 guy and we end up having to start over again in 5 years....Thats how you become the Pistons...

Id be fine with Masai trying to legit Bottom out like the Wizards/Nets for this one year if it means we get a top 5 pick in this stacked draft....

A way to do it is Darko simply Playing the bench rookies alot of mins, Trade Yak, Boucher, Brown.... Let Quickley/Barrett/Barnes get all the stats they want and let the young guys get extended time during games....I think theres a way we out tank teams to get a top 5 pick odds

I've said since before the last draft that I almost was hoping we kept our pick because I'll say it again, I don't think we're getting a high pick and that unless we trade Yak, we're going to end up in the Play In (period...and depending on how much chemistry they build don't rule out making it...).

I'm telling you we're picking somewhere between 11-14.

We're just going to have to hope that one of Johnson, Powell or Pate are there and that we can turn them into a star wing. I don't think this team is anywhere near as bad as a bunch of you do. Being top 6-7 would actually be an incredible result imo.

Health is impossible to predict, but I do think we'd be pretty bad if we trade Yak after 30-40 games. We might need a fellow East Play-In team with a GM who's owner is too aggressive and wants to make the playoffs or whose GM is on the verge of getting fired (looking at a maybe broken down Capela in Atlanta and a definitely broken down Vucevic in Chicago) to rescue us.

[mihaic]

We need to be in that top 5 at least on draft lottery for me to be satisfied...Because we would have such a good chance to end up with a top pick and even if we end up top 5 i still wouldn't be mad because i like 5 guys in this draft and i would be excited to add any one of them...

My fear is we end up with the 6th, 7th pick, draft a decent player but ends up not being an all star type of guy....Barnes doesn't pan out as a number 1 guy and we end up having to start over again in 5 years....Thats how you become the Pistons...

Id be fine with Masai trying to legit Bottom out like the Wizards/Nets for this one year if it means we get a top 5 pick in this stacked draft....

A way to do it is Darko simply Playing the bench rookies alot of mins, Trade Yak, Boucher, Brown.... Let Quickley/Barrett/Barnes get all the stats they want and let the young guys get extended time during games....I think theres a way we out tank teams to get a top 5 pick odds

I've said since before the last draft that I almost was hoping we kept our pick because I'll say it again, I don't think we're getting a high pick and that unless we trade Yak, we're going to end up in the Play In (period...and depending on how much chemistry they build don't rule out making it...).

I'm telling you we're picking somewhere between 11-14.

We're just going to have to hope that one of Johnson, Powell or Pate are there and that we can turn them into a star wing. I don't think this team is anywhere near as bad as a bunch of you do. Being top 6-7 would actually be an incredible result imo.

I agree, this team certainly looks like 30ish wins. Definitely not under 25 wins to guarantee top lottery.

Of course, injuries or trades or shameless tanking can change the outcome.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

we need to get rid of Poeltl ASAP but I don't think Masai has the balls to do it

i would also see if we could build RJ's value to make him tradeable to guys with Vivek mentality and then move him if an injury doesn't occur

long story short Masai doesn't have the balls to tank and then wonders why an scottie-iq-rj "core" is getting knocked out of the playoffs early until 2031.

of course who knows, maybe jakobe walter is actually michael jordan

[Coco Costanza]

Is the goal to be mediocre or strive to be something better?

Read on Twitter

I find it hard to imagine a scenario in which we would luck out and get him.

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

You don't keep a Coach like Darko, and a prospect like Ochai and think "Hey, we might be good".

No, you keep those guys because we are going to be bad....by design.

[Pointgod]

What are you talking about?

The worst team in the league has the following odds:
Exactly 52.1 percent chance at a top 4 pick (i.e. ~50/50)
That's why the Detroit Pistons, despite being THE WORST team record wise in the league the last couple years, have NOT picked in the top 4 in either draft.

The 2nd and 3rd worst teams have the same chances as the worst for a top 4 pick.

At the beginning of the draft is the only time anything matters. Your additive comment is non-sense.

50% is no guarantee of anything. That's the point here. The olden days all but guaranteed top picks for the worst team or two. Its now flattened.

You're basically just as likely to see a 5-13 team pick 1st as a top 4 worst team. That's substantially different.

No you literally are not, that's why the odds are different. A top 3 worst team has 14x the chance than a 13th team. What even is this argument.

The beginning of the draft matters if it was all done in parallel, but it's not. It's done sequentially. Which means once the 1st OA pick is determined then the odds change for the remainder of the picks. This is a basic concept.

You are unable to understand basic sentences. I clearly grouped the 1-4 teams and the 5-13 teams as groups of combined odds. Hence why teams below the top4 are regularly supplanting the top 4 teams.

Come on man. You must be trolling

If you break out the lottery odds by pick you’re realizing what you’re saying doesn’t really add up.

#1 pick - 100% chance of top 5
#2 pick- 80% chance of a top 5 pick
#3 pick - 67% chance of top 5 pick
#4 pick - 53% chance of a top 5 pick
#5 pick - 43% chance of a top 5 and this is where the odds start to turn because there’s a higher chance you move out of a top 5 pick (57%)
#6 pick - 40% chance of a top 4 and the odds are higher that you move out of the 6th pick than keeping the 6th pick or moving up (54%)

And so on and so fourth as you move down. It’s all about being on the right side of the lottery odds which is why bottom 4 is the best position but top 5 is still decent to keep a top 5 pick. At 6 and below is where the lottery turns and the odds are absolutely not in your favour and there’s a higher probability you move down which is what happened to us last year. Hope that helps to clarify things.

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

[LoveMyRaps]

Is the goal to be mediocre or strive to be something better?

Read on Twitter

I find it hard to imagine a scenario in which we would luck out and get him.

I find it even harder to imagine a scenario in which we make the playoffs, let alone win a round.

[TorontoBarneys]

Is the goal to be mediocre or strive to be something better?

Read on Twitter

I find it hard to imagine a scenario in which we would luck out and get him.

"We aren't likely to get him regardless of our pick position so we shouldn't even try" is exactly the same argument we made for the 2023 draft where we missed out on any real chance of picking Wemby.

[Clutch0z24]

Is the goal to be mediocre or strive to be something better?

Read on Twitter

I find it hard to imagine a scenario in which we would luck out and get him.

Yeah he may be the prize right now but even if you end up getting #2 pick this draft your getting one of Flagg/Bailey and if you get a 3rd or 4th pick your getting one of Edgecomb/Harper.....Id be fine with any of the 4 since they all have all star potential

[Coco Costanza]

Is the goal to be mediocre or strive to be something better?

Read on Twitter

I find it hard to imagine a scenario in which we would luck out and get him.

"We aren't likely to get him regardless of our pick position so we shouldn't even try" is exactly the same argument we made for the 2023 draft where we missed out on any real chance of picking Wemby.

I never said we shouldn't try.

[billy_hoyle]

No you literally are not, that's why the odds are different. A top 3 worst team has 14x the chance than a 13th team. What even is this argument.

The beginning of the draft matters if it was all done in parallel, but it's not. It's done sequentially. Which means once the 1st OA pick is determined then the odds change for the remainder of the picks. This is a basic concept.

You are unable to understand basic sentences. I clearly grouped the 1-4 teams and the 5-13 teams as groups of combined odds. Hence why teams below the top4 are regularly supplanting the top 4 teams.

Come on man. You must be trolling

If you break out the lottery odds by pick you’re realizing what you’re saying doesn’t really add up.

#1 pick - 100% chance of top 5
#2 pick- 80% chance of a top 5 pick
#3 pick - 67% chance of top 5 pick
#4 pick - 53% chance of a top 5 pick
#5 pick - 43% chance of a top 5 and this is where the odds start to turn because there’s a higher chance you move out of a top 5 pick (57%)
#6 pick - 40% chance of a top 4 and the odds are higher that you move out of the 6th pick than keeping the 6th pick or moving up (54%)

And so on and so fourth as you move down. It’s all about being on the right side of the lottery odds which is why bottom 4 is the best position but top 5 is still decent to keep a top 5 pick. At 6 and below is where the lottery turns and the odds are absolutely not in your favour and there’s a higher probability you move down which is what happened to us last year. Hope that helps to clarify things.

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

I'm an engineer. I'm very aware of how these odds work. As I stated in my previous post. The odds of teams from lower groups supplanting top 4 picks is ~50/50. i.e. you expect half the top 4 picks to be comprised of teams that finished 5-13.

Read the tankathon odds u quoted.

[WhatsaTDot]

Bring back "future considerations."

Trade Yak for future considerations.

[Ell Curry]

we need to get rid of Poeltl ASAP but I don't think Masai has the balls to do it

i would also see if we could build RJ's value to make him tradeable to guys with Vivek mentality and then move him if an injury doesn't occur

long story short Masai doesn't have the balls to tank and then wonders why an scottie-iq-rj "core" is getting knocked out of the playoffs early until 2031.

of course who knows, maybe jakobe walter is actually michael jordan

Yeah, I think either Poeltl or RJ needs to be moved to ensure a proper tank. Just need someone to offer actual value for one of them. Wouldn't be shocked if it's RJ just because we drafted some 2s and this sort of build makes sense:

Poeltl - 2026 1st
Barnes - (Barrett trade return)
2025 1st - Agbaji
Dick - Walter
Quickley - MLE

Basically replace Barrett with a wing from this coming draft, follow it up with the Poeltl successor in the 2026 draft. Maybe someone else develops into a rotation guy (Chomche, Mogbo, Shead) at some point.

I think it's tougher to see us moving Poeltl and getting a decent young center back.

If any of Barnes/Quickley/Poeltl miss time we should be bad enough that we don't have to chase a pick. You need a center to not suck, Barnes is by far out best player and I think Quickley is key to being competitive because the sheer lack of offensive punch from a Mitchell/Shead/Agbaji/Brown/Walter backcourt for even 20-30 games or so screams 25-30 win season and a top 6-7 draft slot.

[Pointgod]

You are unable to understand basic sentences. I clearly grouped the 1-4 teams and the 5-13 teams as groups of combined odds. Hence why teams below the top4 are regularly supplanting the top 4 teams.

Come on man. You must be trolling

If you break out the lottery odds by pick you’re realizing what you’re saying doesn’t really add up.

#1 pick - 100% chance of top 5
#2 pick- 80% chance of a top 5 pick
#3 pick - 67% chance of top 5 pick
#4 pick - 53% chance of a top 5 pick
#5 pick - 43% chance of a top 5 and this is where the odds start to turn because there’s a higher chance you move out of a top 5 pick (57%)
#6 pick - 40% chance of a top 4 and the odds are higher that you move out of the 6th pick than keeping the 6th pick or moving up (54%)

And so on and so fourth as you move down. It’s all about being on the right side of the lottery odds which is why bottom 4 is the best position but top 5 is still decent to keep a top 5 pick. At 6 and below is where the lottery turns and the odds are absolutely not in your favour and there’s a higher probability you move down which is what happened to us last year. Hope that helps to clarify things.

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

I'm an engineer. I'm very aware of how these odds work. As I stated in my previous post. The odds of teams from lower groups supplanting top 4 picks is ~50/50. i.e. you expect half the top 4 picks to be comprised of teams that finished 5-13.

Read the tankathon odds u quoted.

Looking at the combined probability of teams 5-13 doesn’t make sense because we only have 1 spot from in that series so it’s not like all the probabilities in each spot is equal. You can’t just assume that finishing out of the bottom 4 means there’s an equal chance in jumping up as moving out of the bottom 4. You take the individual probabilities into account and the numbers obvious incentivize finishing lower.

There’s little value in competing for the privilege of getting curb stomped by the Celtics or missing the play-in all together when it means missing out on a potential franchise player.

[Pointgod]

we need to get rid of Poeltl ASAP but I don't think Masai has the balls to do it

i would also see if we could build RJ's value to make him tradeable to guys with Vivek mentality and then move him if an injury doesn't occur

long story short Masai doesn't have the balls to tank and then wonders why an scottie-iq-rj "core" is getting knocked out of the playoffs early until 2031.

of course who knows, maybe jakobe walter is actually michael jordan

Yeah, I think either Poeltl or RJ needs to be moved to ensure a proper tank. Just need someone to offer actual value for one of them. Wouldn't be shocked if it's RJ just because we drafted some 2s and this sort of build makes sense:

Poeltl - 2026 1st
Barnes - (Barrett trade return)
2025 1st - Agbaji
Dick - Walter
Quickley - MLE

Basically replace Barrett with a wing from this coming draft, follow it up with the Poeltl successor in the 2026 draft. Maybe someone else develops into a rotation guy (Chomche, Mogbo, Shead) at some point.

I think it's tougher to see us moving Poeltl and getting a decent young center back.

If any of Barnes/Quickley/Poeltl miss time we should be bad enough that we don't have to chase a pick. You need a center to not suck, Barnes is by far out best player and I think Quickley is key to being competitive because the sheer lack of offensive punch from a Mitchell/Shead/Agbaji/Brown/Walter backcourt for even 20-30 games or so screams 25-30 win season and a top 6-7 draft slot.

I don’t think we should be in a rush to trade RJ. Let’s see what we have with him, I think he’s a 4th or 5th option on a championship team. Poeltl, Brown, Boucher on the other hand should be immediately traded and give the minutes to young players to develop. Our bench will be pretty thin to start with and one injury will have a pretty high impact. That’s why we’re in the 25-35 win territory but moving Poeltl and other vets will ensure we don’t get any fluke wins that hurt the tank.