If the draft is rigged...

[nikster]

what if the resulting lotto balls didn't show randomness

Are you **** kidding?

You cant look at 2 drafts and determine if there is randomness or not. That is like flipping a coin twice, getting tails two times, and concluding the coin is tails on both sides.

**** did our education system fail you guys. My god. This is base level math.

I didn't determine if there was randomness or not, ChatGPT/DeepSeek did. You can blame them for not understanding math/cluster patterns.

The odds of getting tails on two coin flips is 25%

If we were to look at odds of the 2017/2018 draft, Boston/Suns getting three in a row would be 1.56% each. The number "1" occurring three times in a row is 2.33%. The odds of these combined events happening in both drafts is: 0.0000132% (or one in 7.57 million)

That's not including other oddities. E.g. odds of only 7 numbers appearing in 4 out of 5 draws (0.4%).

But yes, these two scenarios are very comparable.

We can't blame Chat GPT for not understanding math. But we can blame you for not understanding it, and for relying on language models

[RoteSchroder]

Are you **** kidding?

You cant look at 2 drafts and determine if there is randomness or not. That is like flipping a coin twice, getting tails two times, and concluding the coin is tails on both sides.

**** did our education system fail you guys. My god. This is base level math.

I didn't determine if there was randomness or not, ChatGPT/DeepSeek did. You can blame them for not understanding math/cluster patterns.

The odds of getting tails on two coin flips is 25%

If we were to look at odds of the 2017/2018 draft, Boston/Suns getting three in a row would be 1.56% each. The number "1" occurring three times in a row is 2.33%. The odds of these combined events happening in both drafts is: 0.0000132% (or one in 7.57 million)

That's not including other oddities. E.g. odds of only 7 numbers appearing in 4 out of 5 draws (0.4%).

But yes, these two scenarios are very comparable.

We can't blame Chat GPT for not understanding math. But we can blame you for not understanding it, and for relying on language models

Ok shill

[nikster]

I didn't determine if there was randomness or not, ChatGPT/DeepSeek did. You can blame them for not understanding math/cluster patterns.

The odds of getting tails on two coin flips is 25%

If we were to look at odds of the 2017/2018 draft, Boston/Suns getting three in a row would be 1.56% each. The number "1" occurring three times in a row is 2.33%. The odds of these combined events happening in both drafts is: 0.0000132% (or one in 7.57 million)

That's not including other oddities. E.g. odds of only 7 numbers appearing in 4 out of 5 draws (0.4%).

But yes, these two scenarios are very comparable.

We can't blame Chat GPT for not understanding math. But we can blame you for not understanding it, and for relying on language models

Ok shill

Lol. To put in more effort, you are calculating at statistical probabilities incorrectly. You look at a pattern and see 3 1s and look for the probability of 3 1s. But you would find any 3 digits suspicious. So you have to calculate the probability that any 3 numbers are repeated, which massively increases the odds. And your not looking at specific teams, your using hindsight to pick and choose. So your not looking at the odds of one specific team getting any 3 numbers, your looking at odds any team getting any 3 numbers repeated. Your calculations aren't close to being right

[RoteSchroder]

We can't blame Chat GPT for not understanding math. But we can blame you for not understanding it, and for relying on language models

Ok shill

Lol. To put in more effort, you are calculating at statistical probabilities incorrectly. You look at a pattern and see 3 1s and look for the probability of 3 1s. But you would find any 3 digits suspicious. So you have to calculate the probability that any 3 numbers are repeated, which massively increases the odds. And your not looking at specific teams, your using hindsight to pick and choose. So your not looking at the odds of one specific team getting any 3 numbers, your looking at odds any team getting any 3 numbers repeated. Your calculations aren't close to being right

“1” is specific because it occurs at a much higher rate in multiple drafts and it occurs at the beginning of these drafts. It’s not changing to arbitrary numbers in each draft. 2017, 2018, 2021, 2022 all have three 1’s in a row in the first 3 draws. 2015, 2016 with 2/4 as shown previously

[nikster]

Ok shill

Lol. To put in more effort, you are calculating at statistical probabilities incorrectly. You look at a pattern and see 3 1s and look for the probability of 3 1s. But you would find any 3 digits suspicious. So you have to calculate the probability that any 3 numbers are repeated, which massively increases the odds. And your not looking at specific teams, your using hindsight to pick and choose. So your not looking at the odds of one specific team getting any 3 numbers, your looking at odds any team getting any 3 numbers repeated. Your calculations aren't close to being right

“1” is specific because it occurs at a much higher rate in multiple drafts and it occurs at the beginning of these drafts. It’s not changing to arbitrary numbers in each draft. 2017, 2018, 2021, 2022 all have three 1’s in a row in the first 3 draws. 2015, 2016 with 2/4 as shown previously

Yes but if all of those drafts had "3" occuring at a much higher rate you would be just as suspicious. So you have to look at the odds of any number coming up that frequently

[RoteSchroder]

Lol. To put in more effort, you are calculating at statistical probabilities incorrectly. You look at a pattern and see 3 1s and look for the probability of 3 1s. But you would find any 3 digits suspicious. So you have to calculate the probability that any 3 numbers are repeated, which massively increases the odds. And your not looking at specific teams, your using hindsight to pick and choose. So your not looking at the odds of one specific team getting any 3 numbers, your looking at odds any team getting any 3 numbers repeated. Your calculations aren't close to being right

“1” is specific because it occurs at a much higher rate in multiple drafts and it occurs at the beginning of these drafts. It’s not changing to arbitrary numbers in each draft. 2017, 2018, 2021, 2022 all have three 1’s in a row in the first 3 draws. 2015, 2016 with 2/4 as shown previously

Yes but if all of those drafts had "3" occuring at a much higher rate you would be just as suspicious. So you have to look at the odds of any number coming up that frequently

3 is not coming up at a high rate in multiple drafts that are independent of each other. 1 is. And it’s at the start of each draft, making it specific.

On top of that, even if you use “any” number, you need to take into consideration that there are drafts with 3 numbers appearing 3 times within 4 rounds. Even if it’s “any number” the odds are low

[refshateRaps]

The thing about rigging is you have to have a strong element of honesty for most people to believe it's not rigged and label others who can sense something is not right overall.

The NBA is rigged in so many ways. Officiating of Star players, the facilitation of super teams to manufacture the legacy of main stars,...as OP mentioned Luka to LA was clearly a shady attempt to help pump Lebron a bit more for the playoffs and keep LA in the spotlight going forward.

Have they rigged the draft before? Possibly. I wouldn't put it passed the NBA given the behavior in all other aspects, but I feel this is one of the least rigged areas of the league.

[OakleyDokely]

There are differently questions you can ask about NBA officiating, but when it comes to draft, if the NBA actually decided where generational or great prospects would go, they wouldn't select cities like CLE, NO, SA, DAL.

[YogurtProducer]

what if the resulting lotto balls didn't show randomness

Are you **** kidding?

You cant look at 2 drafts and determine if there is randomness or not. That is like flipping a coin twice, getting tails two times, and concluding the coin is tails on both sides.

**** did our education system fail you guys. My god. This is base level math.

This has happened 5 times in the last 40 years when it should only happen once every 50 years at 2%. The chance this is random is very low. These are the easy to see and verify numbers.

If I rolled a 50 sided dice 40 times and got the number 44 5 times those would be the dice odds.

Man.. go a roulette table and sit there for 38 spins (there are 38 numbers with 0 and 00). I GUARANTEE you don't see every number hit once, and you most likely will see a number get hit 4+ times.

And then when you are done, sign up for a high school math class.

[YogurtProducer]

Ok shill

Lol. To put in more effort, you are calculating at statistical probabilities incorrectly. You look at a pattern and see 3 1s and look for the probability of 3 1s. But you would find any 3 digits suspicious. So you have to calculate the probability that any 3 numbers are repeated, which massively increases the odds. And your not looking at specific teams, your using hindsight to pick and choose. So your not looking at the odds of one specific team getting any 3 numbers, your looking at odds any team getting any 3 numbers repeated. Your calculations aren't close to being right

“1” is specific because it occurs at a much higher rate in multiple drafts and it occurs at the beginning of these drafts. It’s not changing to arbitrary numbers in each draft. 2017, 2018, 2021, 2022 all have three 1’s in a row in the first 3 draws. 2015, 2016 with 2/4 as shown previously

What are you even going off about here about the #1 coming up?

LIke legitimately I must have missed something here.

[YogurtProducer]

what if the resulting lotto balls didn't show randomness

Are you **** kidding?

You cant look at 2 drafts and determine if there is randomness or not. That is like flipping a coin twice, getting tails two times, and concluding the coin is tails on both sides.

**** did our education system fail you guys. My god. This is base level math.

I didn't determine if there was randomness or not, ChatGPT/DeepSeek did. You can blame them for not understanding math/cluster patterns.

The odds of getting tails on two coin flips is 25%

If we were to look at odds of the 2017/2018 draft, Boston/Suns getting three in a row would be 1.56% each. The number "1" occurring three times in a row is 2.33%. The odds of these combined events happening in both drafts is: 0.0000132% (or one in 7.57 million)

That's not including other oddities. E.g. odds of only 7 numbers appearing in 4 out of 5 draws (0.4%).

But yes, these two scenarios are very comparable.

If you are to look at the ends of ANY numbers occuring. The #1 coming up three times in a row is the same odds as the #1, then #5, then #9 coming up.

There are literally so many different number combinations occurring here that any combinations of numbers if you look at individually will be extremely unlikely the happen

[nikster]

Lol. To put in more effort, you are calculating at statistical probabilities incorrectly. You look at a pattern and see 3 1s and look for the probability of 3 1s. But you would find any 3 digits suspicious. So you have to calculate the probability that any 3 numbers are repeated, which massively increases the odds. And your not looking at specific teams, your using hindsight to pick and choose. So your not looking at the odds of one specific team getting any 3 numbers, your looking at odds any team getting any 3 numbers repeated. Your calculations aren't close to being right

“1” is specific because it occurs at a much higher rate in multiple drafts and it occurs at the beginning of these drafts. It’s not changing to arbitrary numbers in each draft. 2017, 2018, 2021, 2022 all have three 1’s in a row in the first 3 draws. 2015, 2016 with 2/4 as shown previously

What are you even going off about here about the #1 coming up?

LIke legitimately I must have missed something here.

The number 1 came up multiple times for specific teams over several drafts. The poster thinks that is suspicious and suggestive of fixing. Ignoring the bad statistical math, it doesn't even make sense why they would rig it for one specific number to show up more often

[YogurtProducer]

“1” is specific because it occurs at a much higher rate in multiple drafts and it occurs at the beginning of these drafts. It’s not changing to arbitrary numbers in each draft. 2017, 2018, 2021, 2022 all have three 1’s in a row in the first 3 draws. 2015, 2016 with 2/4 as shown previously

What are you even going off about here about the #1 coming up?

LIke legitimately I must have missed something here.

The number 1 came up multiple times for specific teams over several drafts. The poster thinks that is suspicious and suggestive of fixing. Ignoring the bad statistical math, it doesn't even make sense why they would rig it for one specific number to show up more often

Like in the winning combinations?

How was there three 1's in a row when each 4 number combination can only have 1 of each number?

[Shakril]

Just let the good worker bees keep on buzzing about their day.

Don't ever question anything and take everything at face value that big money tells you is the straight and arrow. Contrary to what the religious poster was saying about our side, it certainly makes for a much simpler life on THEIR side.

LOL no one said take everything at face value or not question anything.

You can question the lottery, immediately look into the facts of the matter, and realize it is just randomness and a hell of a coincidence.

But just because you don't ignore facts doesn't make you a sheep or something.

There are no facts. There is just what the NBA tells you. A fact is objective and verifiable.

The earth being a globe is a fact.

The NBA telling you the draft lottery is fair is a statement.

Dude, you still are on it? How often have you to be proven wrong until you get it. Also nobody was saying the the lottery was fair because the nba said it.
We claim the lottery was fair, because hundreds of People, from the NBA, a Lawyer Firm, Executives from the team, independent Journalists, NONE of them have raise any issues. NOT ONE PERSON!!!!!
They all verified that the protocol that is in place has been followed. It was verfied by the lawyer firm too, thats a binding statement which if falsified has major negative implications for the Firm.

What else do you need to drop conspiracy theory?

[Shakril]

If Big Globe was a billion dollar business and I had no way of going outside my house and looking out at the horizon, and there was no such thing as physics and geology and scientific disciplines, you'd have a point.

You seriously don't think a lottery machine and the correspondingly 'designed randomness', the distribution of combinations, the auditor and eye witnesses ISN'T based on scientific fundamentals?

What would be MORE objective than this?
It's a physical lottery machine with the randomized balls.

Are people out of their minds?

Like you're the one looking at the horizon and saying the earth is flat in this scenario.

What does a room full of employees prove? The machine spits out balls and the NBA then tells us which combinations belonged to which teams. The winners can be decided after the balls are spit out. The entire video could be recorded at literally any point in time because it isn't live. What is the role of the auditors? No financial records are being audited.

The Numbers are known in advance to the teams. Journalists that are in the room also have that information.

[Shakril]

I was just catching up on the Hasan Piker situation, and it made me think of this debate.

Hasan is an American citizen and a prominent leftist commentator and media personality. He was recently detained and questioned about his political beliefs by border agents after he flew into Chicago.

Hasan accused the Trump administration of deliberately targeting him in an attempt to sow fear among dissenters.

The Trump administration released a public statement saying that these types of detentions are entirely random and that Hasan was randomly selected for questioning.

At this point, we could take the word of the Trump administration at face value, because what they say is plausible. Trump did swear an oath to uphold the rule of law, after all. Or, we could take the facts of the situation in context and arrive at the conclusion that the Trump administration is lying.

Everyone who maintains that the NBA lottery isn't rigged should categorically deny Hasan's side of the story here. There is no reason to believe that a democratically elected government would lie about their motivations to detain someone. Targeting individuals for detention would be both morally wrong and illegal (the NBA rigging the draft would only be morally wrong), therefore, it cannot be the case. Suggesting that the government could be doing this would be engaging in conspiratorial thinking.

I hope everyone can see how ridiculous it is to trust the word of unaccountable elites, but I'm not holding my breath. We live in a time when critical thinking is discouraged.

Yep, you are deep into conspiracy territory right now.

[YogurtProducer]

LOL no one said take everything at face value or not question anything.

You can question the lottery, immediately look into the facts of the matter, and realize it is just randomness and a hell of a coincidence.

But just because you don't ignore facts doesn't make you a sheep or something.

There are no facts. There is just what the NBA tells you. A fact is objective and verifiable.

The earth being a globe is a fact.

The NBA telling you the draft lottery is fair is a statement.

Dude, you still are on it? How often have you to be proven wrong until you get it. Also nobody was saying the the lottery was fair because the nba said it.
We claim the lottery was fair, because hundreds of People, from the NBA, a Lawyer Firm, Executives from the team, independent Journalists, NONE of them have raise any issues. NOT ONE PERSON!!!!!
They all verified that the protocol that is in place has been followed. It was verfied by the lawyer firm too, thats a binding statement which if falsified has major negative implications for the Firm.

What else do you need to drop conspiracy theory?

Honestly the journalists should be the most damning fact.

A journalist would be absolutely writing articles about the rigged lottery if there was even a chance they saw something suspicious going on. Unless the conspiracy goes so deep that he thinks the NBA is also paying journalists to be quiet.

How many people are being paid to rig and keep quiet about this? How is the NBA able to keep so many people quiet regarding the lottery? The must be the most powerful organization on Earth.

[YogurtProducer]

I was just catching up on the Hasan Piker situation, and it made me think of this debate.

Hasan is an American citizen and a prominent leftist commentator and media personality. He was recently detained and questioned about his political beliefs by border agents after he flew into Chicago.

Hasan accused the Trump administration of deliberately targeting him in an attempt to sow fear among dissenters.

The Trump administration released a public statement saying that these types of detentions are entirely random and that Hasan was randomly selected for questioning.

At this point, we could take the word of the Trump administration at face value, because what they say is plausible. Trump did swear an oath to uphold the rule of law, after all. Or, we could take the facts of the situation in context and arrive at the conclusion that the Trump administration is lying.

Everyone who maintains that the NBA lottery isn't rigged should categorically deny Hasan's side of the story here. There is no reason to believe that a democratically elected government would lie about their motivations to detain someone. Targeting individuals for detention would be both morally wrong and illegal (the NBA rigging the draft would only be morally wrong), therefore, it cannot be the case. Suggesting that the government could be doing this would be engaging in conspiratorial thinking.

I hope everyone can see how ridiculous it is to trust the word of unaccountable elites, but I'm not holding my breath. We live in a time when critical thinking is discouraged.

Yep, you are deep into conspiracy territory right now.

At this point he must just think the entire world is a lie.

Sad life to live, I guess.

The term is escaping me now, but people would rather believe that every bad thing that happens in the world is the result of malice and a conspiracy, and doesn't want to believe that some things that happen simply happen and it is what it is. Accepting that the world can just be random and/or bad makes people feel powerless.

[RoteSchroder]

“1” is specific because it occurs at a much higher rate in multiple drafts and it occurs at the beginning of these drafts. It’s not changing to arbitrary numbers in each draft. 2017, 2018, 2021, 2022 all have three 1’s in a row in the first 3 draws. 2015, 2016 with 2/4 as shown previously

What are you even going off about here about the #1 coming up?

LIke legitimately I must have missed something here.

The number 1 came up multiple times for specific teams over several drafts. The poster thinks that is suspicious and suggestive of fixing. Ignoring the bad statistical math, it doesn't even make sense why they would rig it for one specific number to show up more often

Nice strawman. They’re not rigging it for one number nor did I ever say that. The potential reasoning why it occurs is another subject. Yogurt also has no clue what we’re talking about nor did you explain it to him.

Calculating for a specific number showing up multiple times vs an arbitrary number showing up multiple times has different implications on the probability.

Example, if in one draft, you get:
1 2 3 4
1 5 6 7
1 8 9 10

And in another draft you get:
3 2 4 5
3 6 7 8
3 9 10 11

Then the probability that this occurs in consecutive drafts is not THAT small, because it’s two arbitrary numbers, 1 and 3.

For the first three draws, actual results show:
2017
1 7 9 10
1 2 6 10
1 2 8 9

2018
1 6 9 12
1 3 11 13
1 4 5 12

2021
1 5 11 13
1 2 3 10
1 6 7 11

2022
1 6 13 14
2 7 9 14
1 3 6 12
1 2 10 12

Is it an arbitrary number that is repeating itself, or a specific number?

If you guys don’t think this yields a low probability, then you guys provide the odds. Give me a number or stop shilling. Even you consider it as arbitrary, give me the odds.

This is also not the only oddity. There are around 4-5.

A second oddity is having three repeats for three different arbitrary numbers within the same draft. Calculate the probability, what are the odds?

[SirKen]

What are you even going off about here about the #1 coming up?

LIke legitimately I must have missed something here.

The number 1 came up multiple times for specific teams over several drafts. The poster thinks that is suspicious and suggestive of fixing. Ignoring the bad statistical math, it doesn't even make sense why they would rig it for one specific number to show up more often

Nice strawman. They’re not rigging it for one number nor did I ever say that. The potential reasoning why it occurs is another subject. Yogurt also has no clue what we’re talking about nor did you explain it to him.

Calculating for a specific number showing up multiple times vs an arbitrary number showing up multiple times has different implications on the probability.

Example, if in one draft, you get:
1 2 3 4
1 5 6 7
1 8 9 10

And in another draft you get:
3 2 4 5
3 6 7 8
3 9 10 11

Then the probability that this occurs in consecutive drafts is not THAT small, because it’s two arbitrary numbers, 1 and 3.

For the first three draws, actual results show:
2017
1 7 9 10
1 2 6 10
1 2 8 9

2018
1 6 9 12
1 3 11 13
1 4 5 12

2021
1 5 11 13
1 2 3 10
1 6 7 11

2022
1 6 13 14
2 7 9 14
1 3 6 12
1 2 10 12

Is it an arbitrary number that is repeating itself, or a specific number?

If you guys don’t think this yields a low probability, then you guys provide the odds. Give me a number or stop shilling. Even you consider it as arbitrary, give me the odds.

This is also not the only oddity. There are around 4-5.

A second oddity is having three repeats for three different arbitrary numbers within the same draft. Calculate the probability, what are the odds?

Where did you even get this ping pong ball number per team data? Can you post the link for all historical ones?