jakobe & Dick were bad picks

[mdenny]

Spend years lamenting the trade of a mid FRP in 1000s of posts.

Then proclaim mid to late FRPs are useless when they play like......mid FRPs.

This is why it's not always a bad idea to trade picks for established vets.....assuming your valuation of the pick and expected outcomes have some semblence to reality.

The whole tank phenomon exposed as just a gambling mentality obsession for the roulette wheel mystery box.

[sbsat]

Spend years lamenting the trade of a mid FRP in 1000s of posts.

Then proclaim mid to late FRPs are useless when they play like......mid FRPs.

This is why it's not always a bad idea to trade picks for established vets.....assuming your valuation of the pick and expected outcomes have some semblence to reality.

The whole tank phenomon exposed as just a gambling mentality obsession for the roulette wheel mystery box.

Point taken. But gradey was a lotto pick and at this rate he will be out of the rotation before the asg

[brownbobcat]

Spend years lamenting the trade of a mid FRP in 1000s of posts.

Then proclaim mid to late FRPs are useless when they play like......mid FRPs.

This is why it's not always a bad idea to trade picks for established vets.....assuming your valuation of the pick and expected outcomes have some semblence to reality.

The whole tank phenomon exposed as just a gambling mentality obsession for the roulette wheel mystery box.

The only thing that fixes mediocre drafting is good drafting. There's no escaping that. If this FO can't do that anymore, then they should just step down.

[ForeverTFC]

Spend years lamenting the trade of a mid FRP in 1000s of posts.

Then proclaim mid to late FRPs are useless when they play like......mid FRPs.

This is why it's not always a bad idea to trade picks for established vets.....assuming your valuation of the pick and expected outcomes have some semblence to reality.

The whole tank phenomon exposed as just a gambling mentality obsession for the roulette wheel mystery box.

The only thing that fixes mediocre drafting is good drafting. There's no escaping that. If this FO can't do that anymore, then they should just step down.

This completely misses the fact that no organization can hit all the time. IF you are batting ~50%, you are doing well.

Go look at Presti/OKC and the Spurs drafting records. Aside from Masai/Raptors, they are the other 2 teams cited for hitting in the draft at a high rate. Look at them side by side with the Raptors picks over the last decade. The Raptors still come out on top.

NBA fanbases have unrealistic expectations when it comes to the draft, partly driven by an inability to take into account expected values.

[mdenny]

Spend years lamenting the trade of a mid FRP in 1000s of posts.

Then proclaim mid to late FRPs are useless when they play like......mid FRPs.

This is why it's not always a bad idea to trade picks for established vets.....assuming your valuation of the pick and expected outcomes have some semblence to reality.

The whole tank phenomon exposed as just a gambling mentality obsession for the roulette wheel mystery box.

Point taken. But gradey was a lotto pick and at this rate he will be out of the rotation before the asg

If every lotto pick was in the rotation by their 4th season the league would need to have 100 teams. Unless we want to instill mandatory retirement for players at the age of 28.

I made a couple posts about this last year. If you want to have a realistic valuation of FRPs.....then look to the past instead of looking at the hype for this year's ipcoming draft.

Gradey Dick is absolutely on track with the average expected outcome at his draft selection. Go look at the past 20 players selected 12th in the draft. (Was gradey 12th? Can't remember...)

Gradey is bunched in to the average outcome expected.

The problem....as i've been saying for years....is ppl think "yah but we might get KOBE at 12!" And that is a gambler's psychology. Also like i've been saying for years....it's gonna be the tank ppl who are MOST critical of average expected outcomes for picks because they were counting on hitting the jackpot. So dick and walter are compelre failures.

You can't run a billion dollar frranchise like that.

[MiamiSPX]

I just don't see it with Gradey. The FO obviously does, as do a lot of you, so I hope like hell you are all correct.

[brownbobcat]

This completely misses the fact that no organization can hit all the time. IF you are batting ~50%, you are doing well.

Go look at Presti/OKC and the Spurs drafting records. Aside from Masai/Raptors, they are the other 2 teams cited for hitting in the draft at a high rate. Look at them side by side with the Raptors picks over the last decade. The Raptors still come out on top.

NBA fanbases have unrealistic expectations when it comes to the draft, partly driven by an inability to take into account expected values.

You're right, no one can do it all the time - but that's the job.

Their successes over the "last decade" obscure the fact that Barnes has been their only homerun in the past 7 years. And yes, a big part of that was trading away picks to win the ring, but not stockpiling extra draft assets since then. "Expected values" is a crap benchmark, it's what gets you to average results.

[Kingsway_fan]

Spend years lamenting the trade of a mid FRP in 1000s of posts.

Then proclaim mid to late FRPs are useless when they play like......mid FRPs.

This is why it's not always a bad idea to trade picks for established vets.....assuming your valuation of the pick and expected outcomes have some semblence to reality.

The whole tank phenomon exposed as just a gambling mentality obsession for the roulette wheel mystery box.

Point taken. But gradey was a lotto pick and at this rate he will be out of the rotation before the asg

Sadly, he looks like a bust.

[mdenny]

This completely misses the fact that no organization can hit all the time. IF you are batting ~50%, you are doing well.

Go look at Presti/OKC and the Spurs drafting records. Aside from Masai/Raptors, they are the other 2 teams cited for hitting in the draft at a high rate. Look at them side by side with the Raptors picks over the last decade. The Raptors still come out on top.

NBA fanbases have unrealistic expectations when it comes to the draft, partly driven by an inability to take into account expected values.

You're right, no one can do it all the time - but that's the job.

Their successes over the "last decade" obscure the fact that Barnes has been their only homerun in the past 7 years. And yes, a big part of that was trading away picks to win the ring, but not stockpiling extra draft assets since then. "Expected values" is a crap benchmark, it's what gets you to average results.

Your characterization of Barnes being a "home run" might illuminate the flaw in draft performance evaluation.

Assuming that Barnes more or less goes 4th in a redraft....this doesnt make him a home run. It makes him the average outcome you referred to.

Assuming Walter more or less goes 14th in a redraft....this also makes him an average pick.

So in evaluating performance in the draft....the scotty and jakobe picks are pretty much equal.

The only way to have a meaningful evaluation of draft performance is one that is relative to other teams in context. What was available compared to what you got.

So when someone says (not necessarily you): "Scotty was a homenrun and Walter was a bust". It's clear they are using a flawed evaluation method.

The other thing in regard to being "average". That means you are better than 15 other teams. It's not the case that there's a bunch of average teams and a few really good ones. Any meaningful evaluation of draft performance needs to be graded on a curve. If the draft team wasn't doing a good job.....they would be below average.

[ItsDanger]

They had a great run in 2015-17 drafts. But that was 8-10 years ago.

Referencing that stretch is incredibly misleading at this point. And that is being polite.

[kalel123]

They had a great run in 2015-17 drafts. But that was 8-10 years ago.

Referencing that stretch is incredibly misleading at this point. And that is being polite.

Yep, they've been getting tons of praises for being able to draft/develop talents. Then it's fair game to be criticized when they've missed on prospects for years. Even considering where the picks were placed, some of them were their own doing and they keep missing enough of them for long enough... eventually it's not so wild to suggest they are not very good at it any more and the team should look elsewhere.

[UnbelievablyRAW]

Problem with Gradey is the FO probably thought the shooting was the NBA ready skill that they wouldn't have to cultivate. Dude is only a good wide open 3pt shooter and even then it's not at an elite level.

Everything else has been mediocre or bad. We can keep the facade going but if we're actually trying to win, he can't be a big rotation guy. JKW is a decent defender but I can't point to a single thing he does that can't be replicated by Alijah Martin. He got drafted as a scoring guard and hasn't shown the ability to make any shots for himself

[brownbobcat]

Your characterization of Barnes being a "home run" might illuminate the flaw in draft performance evaluation.

Assuming that Barnes more or less goes 4th in a redraft....this doesnt make him a home run. It makes him the average outcome you referred to.

Assuming Walter more or less goes 14th in a redraft....this also makes him an average pick.

So in evaluating performance in the draft....the scotty and jakobe picks are pretty much equal.

The only way to have a meaningful evaluation of draft performance is one that is relative to other teams in context. What was available compared to what you got.

So when someone says (not necessarily you): "Scotty was a homenrun and Walter was a bust". It's clear they are using a flawed evaluation method.

Obviously there are weak drafts and strong ones. Barnes could end up being a multiple-time All Star and still only be the 5th best player in that class. However, I wouldn't call that underperforming with the 4th pick. For starters, it means the team made the right call to stay in the draft. Different players from that draft have looked better or worse by season since then, but the general consensus all along has been that Scottie was as good a pick as any. This is what I mean by "homerun", you couldn't have done much better with the pick.

It's still early and the book is not closed on Gradey & JaKobe, but we can all easily identify several players drafted afterwards who performed much better. They're not terrible picks - can't hit on everything - but certainly more on the "whiff" end of the spectrum. There's no universe where Barnes and JaKobe are "pretty much equal" selections, even relatively.

The other thing in regard to being "average". That means you are better than 15 other teams. It's not the case that there's a bunch of average teams and a few really good ones. Any meaningful evaluation of draft performance needs to be graded on a curve. If the draft team wasn't doing a good job.....they would be below average.

And you're also worse than 15 other teams? Average is not good, average is average. I'm not sure what point you're trying to make here.
I'm not going to praise a team that ends up going 41-41 and I doubt that would change even if you added a handful of wins. Yes, I fully realize not every team can win 50 games - I simply don't care. That's my benchmark for success.