Post#3856 » by Hair Canada » Tue Feb 23, 2021 3:23 pm
My man, Sam Vecenie, with his yearly ranking of the top-50 prospects in the league. Eligible are players on their first contract (rookie-scale or otherwise). So not exactly a 25-and-under list, but fairly close.
Lu Dort got an honorable mention. And Brandon Clarke is at 35, only slightly under what he was last year (32), which shows that Vecenie still believes in him despite the TS% dropping from 66 to 54. He thinks, and I tend to agree, that some of it is situational (mainly not playing next to triple J), some a statistical aberration, and some has to do with shot mechanics, which he thinks might still be correctable (or rather reversible to what they were last year). See below for the full write-up.
But there's also another thing coming out of this. Yet to be ranked are the top-20. And both RJ Barrett and SGA are there. For Shai, it's a no-brainer though I'm curious to see how high he ends up. But I'm somewhat surprised that RJ is in there, above prospects like Collin Sexton (23) and James Wiseman (21). I'm actually not sure I would rank him this high.
Now, consider that Jamal Murray is also still under 25 (happy 24th birthday Jamal!) and just became ineligible for this list (as did Dillon Brooks and Chris Boucher), and you've got yourself arguably 3 Canadians in the top-20 future players in this league. Not too shabby!
35. Brandon Clarke | 6-8 forward, 24 years old | Memphis Grizzlies | Contract: 3 years, $9.8 million, last year team option | PR: 32
Clarke is another player I’m not totally sure what to do with on this list. A clear choice for first-team All-Rookie last season, Clarke was one of the most efficient players in the NBA in combining shooting and play-finishing in pick-and-roll with defensive versatility. He posted a ridiculous 66.3 true-shooting percentage, hitting 36 percent from 3 on limited attempts. His floater game out of short rolls became a staple. His weakside shot-blocking prowess was a huge help for Memphis’ defense, and his positionally sound rotations really helped as Memphis pushed its way into the playoffs ahead of schedule. He was awesome.
This year, the supporting parts of his game are still there. He’s crashing the offensive glass and defending well. He still has to be accounted for athletically, particularly as a cutter and off-ball mover toward the rim. Few young players in the NBA are as available as a help defender, and he wreaks havoc. But his scoring efficiency has dropped off a cliff for a few reasons. How? First and foremost, it’s worth noting this role is just different this year. The Grizzlies are using him much less in ball screens as a roller. Last season, 23 percent of Clarke’s finished possessions were out of pick-and-rolls. This year? That number is nearly cut in half at 14 percent.
Why? Partially, that’s because he’s not getting any minutes yet with Jaren Jackson Jr. In Clarke-Jackson frontcourts last year, Memphis would often utilize Clarke as the roll man and run Jackson off a lot of different back-side screening actions (or even just as a spot-up shooter). About half of Clarke’s minutes last season came with Jackson on the court, and under one-fourth of them came with Jonas Valanciunas. This season, about half of his minutes are coming with Valanciunas, whom Memphis uses as the primary screener when he’s on the floor due to the fact centers are the players guarding him, allowing them to pull the big away from the rim. That means Clarke is more often placed into the Jackson role as a corner spot-up guy to start possessions, and the results have been spotty. A lot of these possessions result in Clarke cuts into the paint, either trailing Ja Morant drives trying to find an open area of space in the middle of the floor or just finding an open crease for Tyus Jones to hit with a pass. Clearly, Clarke is most comfortable operating in that foul line area, and he tends to find himself there. But instead of getting all the way to the rim because of the space Jackson provides, he’s more often having to settle for that little push shot he’s really good at but is obviously less effective than a guy with a 40-inch vertical leap dunking the ball.
Part of this, too, is that he’s gotten unlucky. Clarke has missed a few dunks and layups this year you wouldn’t expect him to miss. Those will even out over the course of a long season. But my bigger concern is his jump shot. Clarke’s long had terrific touch but has really had to work through shot-mechanic adjustments that would allow him to consistently see that touch. Those mechanics seem to have reverted into a mixture of his mechanics at San Jose State, where he would kind of sling the ball, and his rookie year, where it was more of a solid push shot. Regardless, this is not working for Clarke right now, and I’d like to see a change back to where he’s more on balance and twisting his body less in the air.
This is the swing skill for Clarke. If he goes back to being a real 3-point shooter, he has potential to be a legitimately elite role-playing starter for a Memphis team built around Morant and Jackson. If he doesn’t shoot it, he’s a bit more limited but still an extremely effective role player. We’re basically seeing what Clarke’s floor is right now in Memphis, and he’s still a helpful role player. The ceiling is much higher, and I think you’ll get to see more of it when Jackson returns.
“If every basketball player worked as hard as I did, I’d be out of a job.”
— Steve Nash
