Let the tank for Wiggins debate begin... (article)

[Rapz]

We simply can not tank with all the talent we have. We will be mediocre.

I'm confident Wiggins will pull a Tmac and leave his rookie team after year 3 or maybe a lebron.

If he does, it will be for a contender.
Unfortunately for Toronto, by then he (like Nash) will grow roots in US and most likely will not consider moving back home...time will tell.

[kilpin]

Well tanking isn't as simple as it seems. You can't just instruct the players to lose. You'd need to move out certain player who contribute to winning. You've also got to bench players down the stretch who contribute to winning with incentives in their contracts like Amir. I think you'd have to at a minimum move out Lowry, Gay, Demar and Bargs (for public relations/his safety). You would probably have to move Amir too in my opinion just out of decency.

Those players make a fair bit of money as you all know.

Yeah that is why this offseason will be an interesting one (all of our offseasons seem to be that way).

I wouldn't move Amir he does work on a very good contract and he is one who would not complain after 1 more year of losing, but I agree with everything else you said, we will need to put a **** roster on the floor for majority of the season but that could also be good news, in regards to player development (Ross in particular)

Say we trade only Gay and have a starting lineup of

Lowry
Ross
Demar
Amir
Val

That roster is not making the playoffs we would be lucky to win 30 games. And if anyone (Lowry especially) goes down that win % takes a HUGE hit. That along with the fact the draft will be rigged in our favour should be enough to land a top 3 pick.


I wonder if Leiweke reads this board...

Without Lowry, Ross and JV in 2012 we won 23 games out of 66, we simply aren't bad enough! If we really want to tank (personally i wouldn't) we should trade away everyone but Ross and JV for expiring contracts and draft picks and fill the team with d-leaguers (i.e. another frustrating year)!

[SDM]

With our luck, we'll tank, land #1, and then Wiggins will decide to stay another year.

What's the point of even trying? Half the fans think this is a playoff team anyway. They haven't been paying attention, no use in trying to get them to change direction. Ownership is the exact same way, evidently.

[WyseGuy]

I don't see us doing it. Sorry, folks. The only way we get a bottom 3 pick in next year's draft is if we trade for one and it's hard to imagine any team wanting to tank for us in a good draft not wanting Jonas as the centerpiece.

The other problem is that teams that have already won the #1 pick rarely trade it on draft day. They know that their fans have already grown attached to the name at the top when there's a clear-cut favorite. In fact, I can't remember the last time a #1 was traded and announced at the draft.

He's not going to be as good as Lebron or Durant anyway. He's not the ball-handler or passer that James was and he's not 6'11 like Durant.

Agreed. He may prove me wrong (I hope so), but at this point he looks nowhere near the prospect that Lebron was. I don't see him being as good as a prospect as D-Wade, Kobe, or KD either.

We'll know a hell of a lot more watching Kansas games this season.

I hope he has the work ethic to get there, but there have been a few red flags based on some of the things I've read.

Not hating on the guy. I just think people have to temper expectations. Coming out of Highschool Rudy Gay was as highly touted (if not more). Harrison Barnes as well.

Neither (Gay or Barnes) received the same exposure as Wiggins has. Even Jabari Parker hasn't received the same level of media exposure. LeBron was far from perfect and it took him some time to get a good jumper, free throw, etc. Essentially he was a dunker who had the tools to put it all together, like Wiggins does as well. As you said, we will get our chance to watch him next season at Kansas play against other top college recruits,

Im sorry but your assessment of Lebron coming into the League is completely off base. He was an extremely complete player even as a rookie. While he had not yet developed a consistent mid range or post up game, he already possessed a solid handle and outstanding court vision to go along with his unparalled physical tools. To reduce him to "essentially just a dunker" is to ignore the fact that he already possessed (and took advantage of) an extremely diverse skillset even before playing his first NBA game. There was never a lull where he waited for him to "put it all together. That type of statement applies to Marvin Williams and players of his ilk.

[pbj]

I'm pretty indifferent about tanking for Wiggins.. generally I think going all-in for the number 1 pick is too large of a gamble (25% at best? Bad odds..) however if he develops as he's projected to, then I suppose it's worth the gamble. Although I will add that if we did, against all odds, somehow manage to snag Wiggins.. that far from guarantees the championship contention that people here seem to expect.

I would still prefer an alternative scenario, where we get a GM who focuses on cleaning the contracts of LK, AB and Fields (What is that, like $22MM?) off the books in the next season or two. I don't think our current roster requires a blow-up. There's a lot of strong pieces there that could be highly competitive with the kind of help you're expected to get for $22MM. You can get an all-star or maybe even two for that kind of money.

Much more sustainable and lower risk course of action IMO.

[SHFT]

Well tanking isn't as simple as it seems. You can't just instruct the players to lose. You'd need to move out certain player who contribute to winning. You've also got to bench players down the stretch who contribute to winning with incentives in their contracts like Amir. I think you'd have to at a minimum move out Lowry, Gay, Demar and Bargs (for public relations/his safety). You would probably have to move Amir too in my opinion just out of decency.

Those players make a fair bit of money as you all know.

Yeah that is why this offseason will be an interesting one (all of our offseasons seem to be that way).

I wouldn't move Amir he does work on a very good contract and he is one who would not complain after 1 more year of losing, but I agree with everything else you said, we will need to put a **** roster on the floor for majority of the season but that could also be good news, in regards to player development (Ross in particular)

Say we trade only Gay and have a starting lineup of

Lowry
Ross
Demar
Amir
Val

That roster is not making the playoffs we would be lucky to win 30 games. And if anyone (Lowry especially) goes down that win % takes a HUGE hit. That along with the fact the draft will be rigged in our favour should be enough to land a top 3 pick.


I wonder if Leiweke reads this board...

Without Lowry, Ross and JV in 2012 we won 23 games out of 66, we simply aren't bad enough! If we really want to tank (personally i wouldn't) we should trade away everyone but Ross and JV for expiring contracts and draft picks and fill the team with d-leaguers (i.e. another frustrating year)!

We also had Jose and ED.

If we trade Gay and Ross does not make the jump we hope for (consistent 3+D) I think we will be turrible.

Demar has already shown that he will get abused by opposing 3's on both ends of the floor. And if we end up trading Gay opposing D's now concentrate on Demar again which is not good.

Val will be better but not good enough to carry the team on his back. The only variable is Lowry, if doesn't absolutely blow up in his contract year we would be screwed (in a good way TANK)

[Spacing]

Im sorry but your assessment of Lebron coming into the League is completely off base. He was an extremely complete player even as a rookie. While he had not yet developed a consistent mid range or post up game, he already possessed a solid handle and outstanding court vision to go along with his unparalled physical tools. To reduce him to "essentially just a dunker" is to ignore the fact that he already possessed (and took advantage of) an extremely diverse skillset even before playing his first NBA game. There was never a lull where he waited for him to "put it all together. That type of statement applies to Marvin Williams and players of his ilk.

Are you kidding me? I guess you don't know how Pro Sports work. Rookies come in flawed, work on their game and elevate themselves to super stardom, even the most highly touted. If LeBron didn't need to put in work he would have 10 MVPs, 10 Championships. This is crap and you know it. LeBron, MJ, Kobe, THEY ALL PUT IN THE WORK which is why they are where they are today. They possessed the tools, worked on making themselves better and now you see the results.

You may want to remove LBJ's nuts from your mouth bro.

[kilpin]

Yeah that is why this offseason will be an interesting one (all of our offseasons seem to be that way).

I wouldn't move Amir he does work on a very good contract and he is one who would not complain after 1 more year of losing, but I agree with everything else you said, we will need to put a **** roster on the floor for majority of the season but that could also be good news, in regards to player development (Ross in particular)

Say we trade only Gay and have a starting lineup of

Lowry
Ross
Demar
Amir
Val

That roster is not making the playoffs we would be lucky to win 30 games. And if anyone (Lowry especially) goes down that win % takes a HUGE hit. That along with the fact the draft will be rigged in our favour should be enough to land a top 3 pick.


I wonder if Leiweke reads this board...

Without Lowry, Ross and JV in 2012 we won 23 games out of 66, we simply aren't bad enough! If we really want to tank (personally i wouldn't) we should trade away everyone but Ross and JV for expiring contracts and draft picks and fill the team with d-leaguers (i.e. another frustrating year)!

We also had Jose and ED.

If we trade Gay and Ross does not make the jump we hope for (consistent 3+D) I think we will be turrible.

Demar has already shown that he will get abused by opposing 3's on both ends of the floor. And if we end up trading Gay opposing D's now concentrate on Demar again which is not good.

Val will be better but not good enough to carry the team on his back. The only variable is Lowry, if doesn't absolutely blow up in his contract year we would be screwed (in a good way TANK)

I am not saying we wouldn't be bad, i'm just saying we wouldn't be bad enough to be sure to be bottom 3, that's why we should try to figure out if it's really worth. With the current lineup we can get to the playoff and finally enjoy an offseason. Not to mention that playing for a tanking team wouldn't be the best situation for JV's development.

[dTox]

I think trading Gay for a lotto pick will be farely easy, but it has to be done before the season start (i.e. with a team like Charlotte), the longer we wait the more teams will value their pick as they start to pile up the L's. I would try and trade Demar for a pick in this year's draft, I just don't think any team will give up a lotto pick from 2014 for him.

[kilpin]

I think trading Gay for a lotto pick will be farely easy, but it has to be done before the season start (i.e. with a team like Charlotte), the longer we wait the more teams will value their pick as they start to pile up the L's. I would try and trade Demar for a pick in this year's draft, I just don't think any team will give up a lotto pick from 2014 for him.

Do you really think there would be a team willing to give away a 2013 lotto pick for DeMar!?

[SDM]

^ with a similar contract, with maybe a year less on it, sure. I think there are situations where Demar can be successful, just don't see it here. Hopefully some GM does.

[dTox]

I think trading Gay for a lotto pick will be farely easy, but it has to be done before the season start (i.e. with a team like Charlotte), the longer we wait the more teams will value their pick as they start to pile up the L's. I would try and trade Demar for a pick in this year's draft, I just don't think any team will give up a lotto pick from 2014 for him.

Do you really think there would be a team willing to give away a 2013 lotto pick for DeMar!?

Teams have traded lotto pick for Sebastian Telfair, broken down Gerald Wallace for a top 6 pick in last year's fairly strong draft.....I'm not saying a top 3 pick for Demar, but I certainly think alot will highly consider doing a trade with a pick in the 6-10 range, especially if none of the players available fit a need.

[Totem]

I'm pretty indifferent about tanking for Wiggins.. generally I think going all-in for the number 1 pick is too large of a gamble (25% at best? Bad odds..) however if he develops as he's projected to, then I suppose it's worth the gamble. Although I will add that if we did, against all odds, somehow manage to snag Wiggins.. that far from guarantees the championship contention that people here seem to expect.

I would still prefer an alternative scenario, where we get a GM who focuses on cleaning the contracts of LK, AB and Fields (What is that, like $22MM?) off the books in the next season or two. I don't think our current roster requires a blow-up. There's a lot of strong pieces there that could be highly competitive with the kind of help you're expected to get for $22MM. You can get an all-star or maybe even two for that kind of money.

Much more sustainable and lower risk course of action IMO.

1) wiggins isn't the only prospect believed to be franchise altering

2) you generally want your core players to be in their prime at the same time. The way we have it now won't maximize their talents. But if we tank now and find a running mate for Val, we would be in a better position long term.


Basically it comes down to longterm success vs short term

Win now as the next bucks or build the next pacers.

[kilpin]

I think trading Gay for a lotto pick will be farely easy, but it has to be done before the season start (i.e. with a team like Charlotte), the longer we wait the more teams will value their pick as they start to pile up the L's. I would try and trade Demar for a pick in this year's draft, I just don't think any team will give up a lotto pick from 2014 for him.

Do you really think there would be a team willing to give away a 2013 lotto pick for DeMar!?

Teams have traded lotto picks for Sebastian Telfair, broken down Gerald Wallace for a top 6 pick in last year's fairly strong draft.....I'm not saying a top 3 pick for Demar, but I certainly think alot will highly consider doing a trade with a pick in the 6-10 range.

I don't see Sacramento, Washington, Minnesota, Portland, Phila, Okc, Dallas trading away their pick. The two teams who could have the biggest interest imo would be Detroit and Utah, but if I were them I wouldn't trade a pick for DD.

[SHFT]

I am not saying we wouldn't be bad, i'm just saying we wouldn't be bad enough to be sure to be bottom 3, that's why we should try to figure out if it's really worth. With the current lineup we can get to the playoff and finally enjoy an offseason. Not to mention that playing for a tanking team wouldn't be the best situation for JV's development.

You are forgetting the draft is rigged. And there is no guarantee we make playoffs with this roster although it is
probable, but what happens next year? This current roster is not getting past the 2nd round maybe not even the first round. And JV's only needs minutes and touches for his development. I don't think a losing team in his 2nd year would stunt his growth.

You are right in the sense we need to put out a bad roster but I think it can be accomplished by trading only Gay.

[kilpin]

I am not saying we wouldn't be bad, i'm just saying we wouldn't be bad enough to be sure to be bottom 3, that's why we should try to figure out if it's really worth. With the current lineup we can get to the playoff and finally enjoy an offseason. Not to mention that playing for a tanking team wouldn't be the best situation for JV's development.

You are forgetting the draft is rigged. And there is no guarantee we make playoffs with this roster although it is
probable, but what happens next year? This current roster is not getting past the 2nd round maybe not even the first round. And JV's only needs minutes and touches for his development. I don't think a losing team in his 2nd year would stunt his growth.

You are right in the sense we need to put out a bad roster but I think it can be accomplished by trading only Gay.

Honestly if we decided to tank I would be really glad to trade away DeMar's contract too!

[Felixano]

Lol @ the people that actually think the draft is rigged. Holy tin hats.

That being said I am in favor of a tank in 2014, even if we don't get Wiggins there are other young stars that we can pair with Jonas. This current team will PEAK as a 5 seed at best.

[dTox]

Do you really think there would be a team willing to give away a 2013 lotto pick for DeMar!?

Teams have traded lotto picks for Sebastian Telfair, broken down Gerald Wallace for a top 6 pick in last year's fairly strong draft.....I'm not saying a top 3 pick for Demar, but I certainly think alot will highly consider doing a trade with a pick in the 6-10 range.

I don't see Sacramento, Washington, Minnesota, Portland, Phila, Okc, Dallas trading away their pick. The two teams who could have the biggest interest imo would be Detroit and Utah, but if I were them I wouldn't trade a pick for DD.

It all depends on their positioning after the lottery selections are announced, roster changes between now and the draft etc. Again, if a broken down Gerald Wallace at age 35+ can get you Lillard, then I think Demar certainly can get a pick in the 5-10 range on a much weaker draft year, but nothing is certain between now and then because alot can happen with each of those mentioned team leading up to the draft. On our end, we absolutely should be going all in to trade for picks/young prospects.

[kilpin]

Teams have traded lotto picks for Sebastian Telfair, broken down Gerald Wallace for a top 6 pick in last year's fairly strong draft.....I'm not saying a top 3 pick for Demar, but I certainly think alot will highly consider doing a trade with a pick in the 6-10 range.

I don't see Sacramento, Washington, Minnesota, Portland, Phila, Okc, Dallas trading away their pick. The two teams who could have the biggest interest imo would be Detroit and Utah, but if I were them I wouldn't trade a pick for DD.

It all depends on their positioning after the lottery selections are announced, roster changes between now and the draft etc. Again, if a broken down Gerald Wallace at age 35+ can get you Lillard, then I think Demar certainly can get a pick in the 5-10 range on a much weaker draft year, again nothing can be determined between now and then because of sudden changes, but we absolutely should be going all in to trade for picks/young prospects.

Let's put it this way: I wouldn't trade a lottery pick for DeMar, but IF there was a GM dumb enough to do so i would do it with no hesitation!

[pbj]

I'm pretty indifferent about tanking for Wiggins.. generally I think going all-in for the number 1 pick is too large of a gamble (25% at best? Bad odds..) however if he develops as he's projected to, then I suppose it's worth the gamble. Although I will add that if we did, against all odds, somehow manage to snag Wiggins.. that far from guarantees the championship contention that people here seem to expect.

I would still prefer an alternative scenario, where we get a GM who focuses on cleaning the contracts of LK, AB and Fields (What is that, like $22MM?) off the books in the next season or two. I don't think our current roster requires a blow-up. There's a lot of strong pieces there that could be highly competitive with the kind of help you're expected to get for $22MM. You can get an all-star or maybe even two for that kind of money.

Much more sustainable and lower risk course of action IMO.

1) wiggins isn't the only prospect believed to be franchise altering

2) you generally want your core players to be in their prime at the same time. The way we have it now won't maximize their talents. But if we tank now and find a running mate for Val, we would be in a better position long term.


Basically it comes down to longterm success vs short term

Win now as the next bucks or build the next pacers.

Not what I wrote above...

I didn't say Win now - obviously this team won't get very far capped out the way it is.

What I said was, currently we got like $22MM or more of our cap hit tied up in players who literally contribute 0 or less to us winning games.

Now imagine we added $22MM worth of talent and depth to last years team, that's a pretty ridiculous squad if you ask me.

I mean for that money, you can add like a top 10 player at any position and still have enough room to fill out your bench, and that's without going over the cap at all.

That's why I think if we focus on clearing out our truly bad contracts (it would take a miracle, I know), we can construct a really high level squad without having to go through another painful rebuild.