Prediction Thread: Scottie Barnes' 2025/26 Stats

[Brinbe]

The year 24 season is usually a big breakout one so I think Scottie comes through with a good season, especially now that Ingram is here to absorb more of that 1st option role.

Just gotta hope he stays healthy and continues to make positive progress with that jumper

I think people are often too worried about weaknesses and not Barnes supposed strengths, which probably should be getting to and finishing around the rim.

Yep, the org were clearly pushing and challenging Scottie last season, putting him into situations he wasn't totally prepared to handle perfectly well. It obviously wasn't pretty or efficient but that's the sort of experiment you can attempt in a developmental/tanking season. I think it's akin to training with weights on. Once you put Barnes back into a secondary role (or at least an actual extended run with a healthy/put together starting lineup) where he can mix in being more of of a play finisher again closer to the rim, instead of someone who constantly initiates above the break, he's gonna just explode upwards.

And yes, also to your point about magnifying weaknesses, while Scottie did struggle with his offense, he did make a genuine leap on the defensive end and was a big reason why they ranked so highly in that area in the 2nd half (quality of competition notwithstanding). And that's something that gets oft ignored too.

People act as if Scottie was terrible when he was still a plus positive player on both ends and still probably top 40-50 in the league in a down year. Relative to expectations he was certainly disappointing, especially since we've seen that he can be someone that can have a top 10-20 overall impact when he puts it all together. But he wasn't horrible and I think he can get back there, but obviously the true superstars are those who can learn do it consistently.

[bluerap23]

lol give me an efficient 19 8 5 with great defense and im happy af

This

[HangTime]

22.7 PPG, (if RJ or IQ are traded)
7.7 RPG,
9.1 APG (assuming that our overall shooting is better)
1.3 SPG
1.7 BPG (assuming his on ball defence is scaled back)

[tsherkin]

I think he has the potential for an efficiency jump. 59.8% inside the arc seems reasonable to me if he is playing off other guys and creating less

I'd be shocked if he shot near 60%. He didn't look anywhere near it over his first couple seasons, when he had less responsibility, so that would surprise me greatly.

Would be awesome, though, and I can see where the idea of a boost inside is coming from, regardless. If we DO get him down to like 13 FGA/g, we could be streamlining his shot diet to almost nothing but good stuff, and that'd help. Higher proportion at the rim, etc. I just don't like that you're projecting a career-high 2FG% (like +6% or thereabouts), a massive career-high FTr (that'd be about .350 FTr, and he was at .284 as his career-best last year) and then the second-best 3P% of his career (1% worse than 2024) all at once, it seems a little much.

But again, maybe he will, and maybe the presence of Ingram and Quick and maybe an improved Gradey and stuff all contributes to this wonderful season. And then we can all shut up about about Scottie, because within 0.5% of league-average efficiency and on reduced volume, everything else which he does so well stops getting undercut by his rampant weakness as a scoring threat.

That'd be a huge gift to the team. And would be outstanding.

[WuTang_CMB]

Efficiency will go up, I think he could get close to 60% TS. Will probably still be around 18-20 a game. Assists probably up to 6.5 a game.
I have no confidence in his 3 ball so say 30%.

[tsherkin]

Efficiency will go up, I think he could get close to 60% TS. Will probably still be around 18-20 a game. Assists probably up to 6.5 a game.
I have no confidence in his 3 ball so say 30%.

What do you think will change to drive his efficiency up like 7.5% without improving his 3ball?

[WuTang_CMB]

Efficiency will go up, I think he could get close to 60% TS. Will probably still be around 18-20 a game. Assists probably up to 6.5 a game.
I have no confidence in his 3 ball so say 30%.

What do you think will change to drive his efficiency up like 7.5% without improving his 3ball?

drives, mid range due to more spacing

[tsherkin]

Efficiency will go up, I think he could get close to 60% TS. Will probably still be around 18-20 a game. Assists probably up to 6.5 a game.
I have no confidence in his 3 ball so say 30%.

What do you think will change to drive his efficiency up like 7.5% without improving his 3ball?

drives, mid range due to more spacing

He'd have to outshoot Jokic for that mid-range to have any value to his efficiency. His best season to date was a 47.6% season from 10-16 feet on like 2 attempts per game, and he hasn't shot even 42.9% from 3-10 feet in a couple years, so that seems unlikely.

He could get more drives, but the odds of him suddenly turning into RJ as far as getting to the rim, even with improved spacing, are pretty low.

Drives alone aren't going to do it. He's going to need a more comprehensive improvement to get himself toward 60% TS. That'll have to include 3pt shooting, and maybe improved FT shooting, coupled to everything else.

[WuTang_CMB]

What do you think will change to drive his efficiency up like 7.5% without improving his 3ball?

drives, mid range due to more spacing

He'd have to outshoot Jokic for that mid-range to have any value to his efficiency. His best season to date was a 47.6% season from 10-16 feet on like 2 attempts per game, and he hasn't shot even 42.9% from 3-10 feet in a couple years, so that seems unlikely.

He could get more drives, but the odds of him suddenly turning into RJ as far as getting to the rim, even with improved spacing, are pretty low.

Drives alone aren't going to do it. He's going to need a more comprehensive improvement to get himself toward 60% TS. That'll have to include 3pt shooting, and maybe improved FT shooting, coupled to everything else.

The midrange is going to get a lot better operating as that centre hub and maybe the 3's can get back to 34-35% but I dont see him launching them at the same rate as last season since he had the green light.

[tsherkin]

The midrange is going to get a lot better operating as that centre hub

Yes, but that's immaterial. He isn't going to shoot north of 60% doing it, so it will only DROP his efficiency. The use of the mid-range has other advantages, obviously, but in terms of seeing him increase his efficiency, even a 50% mid-range jumper isn't going to do that, was my point. You're talking about a massive leap.

and maybe the 3's can get back to 34-35% but I dont see him launching them at the same rate as last season since he had the green light.

Right, and AT 34% in 2024, he didn't even hit 57%, you see what I mean?

Mathematically, him shooting 30% from 3 on much more than 1 3PA/g will bar him from the level of efficiency you're discussing, and the mid-range game won't get him there. He needs to shoot better in the RA, get there more frequently, get to the line more frequently and improve there for him to start seeing significant improvement without improving his 3P% much.

Maybe he gets to .300 FTr this year. He wasn't that far off last year, and with a little more room to move, it's possible. Scottie's strong, and he does handle contact well. He isn't explosive, but if the mid-range keeps defenders a little bit worried and he's got a little more in terms of gaps to exploit, then he's got something to work with there if he's aggressive enough. That's possible. But he's working from such a deep hole that it's very hard to imagine him suddenly turning into a +2, +2.5% rTS player just because of improved offensive context around him. That's not typically how that sort of player development works, particularly in a guy who isn't a strong shooter or an elite athlete.

[WuTang_CMB]

Mathematically, him shooting 30% from 3 on much more than 1 3PA/g will bar him from the level of efficiency you're discussing, and the mid-range game won't get him there. He needs to shoot better in the RA, get there more frequently, get to the line more frequently and improve there for him to start seeing significant improvement without improving his 3P% much.

Maybe he gets to .300 FTr this year. He wasn't that far off last year, and with a little more room to move, it's possible. Scottie's strong, and he does handle contact well. He isn't explosive, but if the mid-range keeps defenders a little bit worried and he's got a little more in terms of gaps to exploit, then he's got something to work with there if he's aggressive enough. That's possible. But he's working from such a deep hole that it's very hard to imagine him suddenly turning into a +2, +2.5% rTS player just because of improved offensive context around him. That's not typically how that sort of player development works, particularly in a guy who isn't a strong shooter or an elite athlete.

ultimately I think the efficiency is going up even if he hovers around a 55%TS mark. I don't think he was in the most advantageous positions last year and now with BI in the fold, he'll get some attention off of him. Can I he get the 3's to a 34% mark? Who knows. But I do think the midrange and drives will get a lot better to bring his percentages up on the whole.

[MiamiSPX]

I don't care about the numbers, just be better than last season.

[tsherkin]

ultimately I think the efficiency is going up even if he hovers around a 55%TS mark. I don't think he was in the most advantageous positions last year and now with BI in the fold, he'll get some attention off of him. Can I he get the 3's to a 34% mark? Who knows. But I do think the midrange and drives will get a lot better to bring his percentages up on the whole.

I'd be startled if his efficiency DIDN'T go up from the 52% or so he was at last year, I agree.

I have been cautiously excited to see how the extra space and the extra passing around him and defensive draw and so forth will help him. It's just the magnitude of the original remark which I contest. I'd be pretty thrilled if he got himself to 57%. I think that's at least attainable. I don't know about likely, but potentially attainable. He was at 56.6%, but that took him taking a third of his shots from 3 at 34%, so I'm hoping we'll see a different route to better efficiency this year.

[tsherkin]

I don't care about the numbers, just be better than last season.

This thread is literally ABOUT statistics, not the qualitative elements...

[WuTang_CMB]

ultimately I think the efficiency is going up even if he hovers around a 55%TS mark. I don't think he was in the most advantageous positions last year and now with BI in the fold, he'll get some attention off of him. Can I he get the 3's to a 34% mark? Who knows. But I do think the midrange and drives will get a lot better to bring his percentages up on the whole.

I'd be startled if his efficiency DIDN'T go up from the 52% or so he was at last year, I agree.

I have been cautiously excited to see how the extra space and the extra passing around him and defensive draw and so forth will help him. It's just the magnitude of the original remark which I contest. I'd be pretty thrilled if he got himself to 57%. I think that's at least attainable. I don't know about likely, but potentially attainable. He was at 56.6%, but that took him taking a third of his shots from 3 at 34%, so I'm hoping we'll see a different route to better efficiency this year.

I am cautiously optimistic as well. I hope we can continue to add to this group to fully optimize Scottie.

[TheGeneral99]

21.5ppg, 8.2rpg, 6.8apg, 1.4spg, 1.1bpg on 51%fg, 32%3fg and 73%ft.

Book it!

[OakleyDokely]

Winning also hides a lot of the flaws.

In his 3 seasons in the league Paolo Banchero has a TS% of .529, .546, .551. But when the Magic were winning, few people cared about the efficiency issues.

[ConSarnit]

The year 24 season is usually a big breakout one so I think Scottie comes through with a good season, especially now that Ingram is here to absorb more of that 1st option role.

Just gotta hope he stays healthy and continues to make positive progress with that jumper

I think people are often too worried about weaknesses and not Barnes supposed strengths, which probably should be getting to and finishing around the rim.

Yep, the org were clearly pushing and challenging Scottie last season, putting him into situations he wasn't totally prepared to handle perfectly well. It obviously wasn't pretty or efficient but that's the sort of experiment you can attempt in a developmental/tanking season. I think it's akin to training with weights on. Once you put Barnes back into a secondary role (or at least an actual extended run with a healthy/put together starting lineup) where he can mix in being more of of a play finisher again closer to the rim, instead of someone who constantly initiates above the break, he's gonna just explode upwards.

And yes, also to your point about magnifying weaknesses, while Scottie did struggle with his offense, he did make a genuine leap on the defensive end and was a big reason why they ranked so highly in that area in the 2nd half (quality of competition notwithstanding). And that's something that gets oft ignored too.

People act as if Scottie was terrible when he was still a plus positive player on both ends and still probably top 40-50 in the league in a down year. Relative to expectations he was certainly disappointing, especially since we've seen that he can be someone that can have a top 10-20 overall impact when he puts it all together. But he wasn't horrible and I think he can get back there, but obviously the true superstars are those who can learn do it consistently.

His scoring was objectively terrible.

58 players averaged 19+ PPG this year. Barnes had the lowest TS% of all 58. Barnes was the worst volume scorer in the league.

If you are scoring at 53 TS% on 25% usage that is incredibly damaging to your team’s offense. You’d pretty much need to be a top 10 creator for others (Barnes was not) or a DPOY candidate (Barnes was not) to be a positive impact player. I do not believe Barnes was a positive contributor this past season.

[Brinbe]

I think people are often too worried about weaknesses and not Barnes supposed strengths, which probably should be getting to and finishing around the rim.

Yep, the org were clearly pushing and challenging Scottie last season, putting him into situations he wasn't totally prepared to handle perfectly well. It obviously wasn't pretty or efficient but that's the sort of experiment you can attempt in a developmental/tanking season. I think it's akin to training with weights on. Once you put Barnes back into a secondary role (or at least an actual extended run with a healthy/put together starting lineup) where he can mix in being more of of a play finisher again closer to the rim, instead of someone who constantly initiates above the break, he's gonna just explode upwards.

And yes, also to your point about magnifying weaknesses, while Scottie did struggle with his offense, he did make a genuine leap on the defensive end and was a big reason why they ranked so highly in that area in the 2nd half (quality of competition notwithstanding). And that's something that gets oft ignored too.

People act as if Scottie was terrible when he was still a plus positive player on both ends and still probably top 40-50 in the league in a down year. Relative to expectations he was certainly disappointing, especially since we've seen that he can be someone that can have a top 10-20 overall impact when he puts it all together. But he wasn't horrible and I think he can get back there, but obviously the true superstars are those who can learn do it consistently.

His scoring was objectively terrible.

58 players averaged 19+ PPG this year. Barnes had the lowest TS% of all 58. Barnes was the worst volume scorer in the league.

If you are scoring at 53 TS% on 25% usage that is incredibly damaging to your team’s offense. You’d pretty much need to be a top 10 creator for others (Barnes was not) or a DPOY candidate (Barnes was not) to be a positive impact player. I do not believe Barnes was a positive contributor this past season.

who is claiming anything else? where did I say he was good or efficient? or a dpoy level defender? you're literally tilting at windmills making up nonsense arguments in your own head.

Being the bottom of a bunch doesn't mean he's automatically a negative player either.

And you're completely wrong.



and just because he did this thing one year doesn't mean he's gonna be this exact same thing next year when he's gonna have a different role and better teammates to play with.

[ConSarnit]

Winning also hides a lot of the flaws.

In his 3 seasons in the league Paolo Banchero has a TS% of .529, .546, .551. But when the Magic were winning, few people cared about the efficiency issues.

I mean, they should care. ORL’s offense is terrible and they’ve flamed out in the playoffs because of it.