HeadtopChunes wrote:Ell Curry wrote:HeadtopChunes wrote:Not really a fan of the Greg Monroe comparison here, Tillmans's biggest selling point is his defense. Which was Monroe's biggest weakness. Tillman has also had superior 2p% numbers (62% vs Monroes 56%) across his entire career, I think you can argue he's a better finisher than Monroe, Tillman also is more likely to shoot 3s although the results aren't great yet. Far more comparable to a smaller Al Horford IMO
I think the athletic concerns you listed are valid and why he isn't a lottery pick, but at the same time, I still think he's one of the best bigs in the class.
As far as his role in the NBA, it's possible he's not a guy you want starting for a majority of the regular season at center, (maybe, the Center position is very different these days, Celtics have done quite well starting a 6'8 Daniel Theis all season), but consider this, if Tillman does become a + defending big with the ability guard multiple positions, pass at a high level and shoot, that's a really good player to have in your playoff rotation. Maybe he doesn't have the potential to start games in the regular season, but he does have the potential to close games in the playoffs and I think that's worth a first. Especially since the cost of acquiring an average starting center is minuscule.
Also don't think there's a huge difference between the 28th pick or a 2nd round pick, most drafts you are lucky to have anybody who's still a rotation player at that range.
Yeah the only thing I see similar to Monroe is that both are good elbow passers.
I think the problem with the theory that a guy like Tillman can switch enough to be a close the game at center is that he provides little on O unless he can become a very good offensive rebounder or a good 3pt shooter.
But 1st in Win shares last year (per 40, 4th total) in the Big 10 and 3rd this year and 1st both years in Box Score plus minus. That and being able to switch defensively and still putting up 14-10-3 with 2 blocks and a steal as a Junior just screams modern rotation backup 5 doesn't it? Not an exciting pick at 28 and if we draft a high upside athlete like Williams from FSU we'll all assume he's the next Siakam, but Masai does have to operate within reality, rather than the idea he can just find a quality starting player in the high 20s every year. Does Masai want to draft Celtics Aron Baynes with the 28th pick? My feeling is no, but he'd be happy to get him in the 30s, so if this draft class is really as bad as the top of it suggests...
I definitely think the 3pt shot has to become decent at least, but being a playoff closer is more of an upside thing for him. As far as the offensive value I think Tillman can still provide that with his passing and screening ability (both among the top of the class for bigs). I think he can finish just fine (9th among all the bigs i have ranked in 2p%) too, considering how successful we've been with Marc playing with historically bad finishing.
I agree that he isn't the sexy pick, and his upside isn't great unless he becomes an elite defender or spacer, but as per your last point I agree that the draft class really is as bad as it looks. I'm not extremely high on Tillman but he's still my 5th ranked Big in the draft. I don't think there are that many bigs with more upside than him in this class. Tillman isn't my first choice at 28 for us but I'd be happy with him as opposed to nearly every other big in this class. (The only other bigs in our range I'd consider is Aleksej Pokusevski and Zeke Nnaji)
But to expand on that point I don't think we should force ourselves to take a big either, don't think we should draft for need but rather for talent. But given the dearth of talent in this year's class, drafting a good rotation player wouldn't be a bad outcome especially at the end of the first round. It would be a comparable move to drafting Delon Wright in 2015 imo
If there are no good high ceiling calculated risk type players available, a high floor low ceiling safe pick like Delon Wright would be fine for me.
Having a player who can give you a reliable 10-20 minutes per game on a rookie contract is so valuable. I'd rather have that than swinging for the fences for a player who is likely to bust and waste a roster spot for 4 years.
Whether Tillman is the best safe pick is another question though. How his height will effect his game in the NBA is still a question mark and he has no other position he could possibly play. Somebody who shows more versatility could be a safer choice.
