Official Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[ATLTimekeeper]

There's no one country you can point to as a reference. Canada's largest trading partner and only bordered neighbour is on fire. You can't operate like Sweden when you've got a war zone next door. We don't have an accurate picture of where it is in Ontario, so we have to let it die out.

We might be playing it too safe regarding schools. But there's only 2 months left, so I see it as pointless to put them back in. Testing has been rationed across the globe, so I don't know how accurate any early data could be to determine whether kids could be super spreaders. I know that a lot of people have 3 generations in a home in the GTA.

[mrsocko]

Great numbers today for Ontario! Let's hope the trend continues.

Numbers in Quebec are driving any hysteria in Canada. They have about triple the numbers per capita compared to other provinces. Keep waiting for their numbers to come down but they don’t.

Ontario quadrupled testing in the last 3 weeks and the numbers of cases per day have started declining. We know exactly where we are with this pandemic in Ontario- improving. Ontario and the rest of Canada are doing great with containment efforts and should start the first stages of reopening.

[Wo1verine]

I'm afraid many read twitter and listen to the doom and gloom media instead of looking at the facts - The numbers are available on our governments sites and if we are going just off what they do confirmed cases well guess what? Influenza and pneumonia was more deadly.

Save your charts and opinions from so called 'experts' on twitter etc who think they know everything and just look at the only thing that matters and those are the facts that are provided to us from our own government.

The virus is real but it's not that deadly.

Canada's Numbers:

2018-19 Influenza and pneumonia death: 8,511 ( 39,192 confirmed cases)
Covid-19 death: 2,984 ( 51,231 confirmed cares)

https://ipac-canada.org/influenza-resources.php?fbclid=IwAR04IaGw-AfwDjAXujaWVPHTvbZcxKgSegrTCjmAE745N1-053Fj5guLSHc

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1310039401&fbclid=IwAR1BxkCq0YDf47V-RGfyaESCb6LHXWJMPEaJlfbYmpgQvOUruH-FpgeBWvQ

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/canada/

[omar36]

im so lost with what the cons want. they want to limit the CESB and focus on students working? most students arent working bc they want to sit home and get free money. many cant find jobs (not everyone has acces to a vehicle and can drive to farms)/some are comprised or live with ppl who are.

why wouldnt students want to work when rright now, ford added 4 bucks ot all "essential jobs" so even min.wage jobs are paying 18 an hr.

besides, the govt already is offering up to 5k grants (not taxable iirc) if they volunteer,

[nikster]

There's no one country you can point to as a reference. Canada's largest trading partner and only bordered neighbour is on fire. You can't operate like Sweden when you've got a war zone next door. We don't have an accurate picture of where it is in Ontario, so we have to let it die out.

We might be playing it too safe regarding schools. But there's only 2 months left, so I see it as pointless to put them back in. Testing has been rationed across the globe, so I don't know how accurate any early data could be to determine whether kids could be super spreaders. I know that a lot of people have 3 generations in a home in the GTA.

also Sweden is having 3x the deaths/population as Canada is, i wouldnt want to operate like Sweden even if US was doing better.
UK started this pandemic with the herd immunity idea...they quickly realized that was disastrous.

[C_Money]

- By ignoring the southern states, you are eliminating the population that immediately invalidates any subsequent observations and conclusions you can draw from your hypothesis. Look at what's happening in New Orleans. Louisiana is as red as it gets, but it's also as sunny as it gets and black people are dying just as fast as anywhere else.

OK, I don't know what's going on in Louisiana/New Orleans (although I visited it in the 1990s, pre-Katrina). The Vit-D studies, such as they are at this stage, are based on European populations. But just to speculate, the stay at home rules in such a compact urban environment - no big back yards like in Burlington! - along with a lack of supplementation would make it hard to get sufficient Vitamin D for anyone of any skin shade. And harder if you're darker.

But to reiterate, there's not much we can say for sure. Mainly, we simply don't have the data re exposure, plus every jurisdiction determines cause of death differently. If anything, it's looking like exposure has much more - i.e. earlier - than was originally though. And data from prisons (where prisoners tend to be let outside, AFAIK) indicates that the serious infection rate after exposure is pretty low.

Here's a Forbes article from a month ago

As of Thursday, a staggering 97% of Louisiana coronavirus patients who died had preexisting conditions, such as diabetes, kidney disease and heart problems, Reuters reported.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marleycoyne/2020/04/04/why-coronavirus-is-killing-new-orleans-area-residents-at-possibly-the-highest-rate-in-the-us/#192d072d6aa1

People are disgustingly overweight in New Orleans. It was probably one of the first things I noticed when I got there.

Not the healthiest looking crowd of people tbh.

[Badonkadonk]

I'll translate the long winded diatribe, if there is herd immunity, a vaccine is irrelevant.

No. Bad translation.

The point he was making is that if there is herd immunity without a vaccine, it means something like 300 million Americans will have had to recover from a Covid-19 infection, and developed immunity. That means millions of dead people and an overwhelmed hospital system. That isn't ideal. So saying you hope we don't have enough infections to develop herd immunity is a completely reasonable statement.

Exactly. Not sure how he draws an incorrect conclusion from this, but the whole point was that to establish herd immunity, you've gone through a process of infecting 80% of a population while sacrificing millions along the way.

Add to this the fact that Covid-19 has recurred in some people, and it's not really a viable approach, which is what Fauci was warning against.

[omar36]

I'll translate the long winded diatribe, if there is herd immunity, a vaccine is irrelevant.

No. Bad translation.

The point he was making is that if there is herd immunity without a vaccine, it means something like 300 million Americans will have had to recover from a Covid-19 infection, and developed immunity. That means millions of dead people and an overwhelmed hospital system. That isn't ideal. So saying you hope we don't have enough infections to develop herd immunity is a completely reasonable statement.

Exactly. Not sure how he draws an incorrect conclusion from this, but the whole point was that to establish herd immunity, you've gone through a process of infecting 80% of a population while sacrificing millions along the way.

Add to this the fact that Covid-19 has recurred in some people, and it's not really a viable approach, which is what Fauci was warning against.

yea and i mean its still rocking a 5-6% mortalitty rate. hard immunity just makes no sense. flatten the curve, limit the spread so that hospitals can treat as much as possible. swden death rate is high compared appreantly they arent overwhelmed

[ATLTimekeeper]

There's no one country you can point to as a reference. Canada's largest trading partner and only bordered neighbour is on fire. You can't operate like Sweden when you've got a war zone next door. We don't have an accurate picture of where it is in Ontario, so we have to let it die out.

We might be playing it too safe regarding schools. But there's only 2 months left, so I see it as pointless to put them back in. Testing has been rationed across the globe, so I don't know how accurate any early data could be to determine whether kids could be super spreaders. I know that a lot of people have 3 generations in a home in the GTA.

also Sweden is having 3x the deaths/population as Canada is, i wouldnt want to operate like Sweden even if US was doing better.
UK started this pandemic with the herd immunity idea...they quickly realized that was disastrous.

I think there probably is a way to successfully secure LTC facilities and minimize the crush to achieve this, but we couldn't do it first go around and it doesn't look like Sweden could, either. And there'd still be the risk that we were operating on assumptions of the virus based on early studies from the first few months of the outbreak. Plus, the time to make that judgement call is long gone. Going the Swedish route midway is just stupid. See this thing through the first wave and then make decisions based on more robust data.

[Lord_Zedd]

https://toronto.citynews.ca/2020/04/28/jesse-ketchum-daycare-coronavirus-toronto/
3 people infected at one of Toronto's emergency child care centres. Ooops

There are seriously people on here advocating for kids going back to school while this is front and center on the news. Absolutely mind boggling.

Another staff member and a 8 month old child are also infected.

edit:1 child

[nikster]

There's no one country you can point to as a reference. Canada's largest trading partner and only bordered neighbour is on fire. You can't operate like Sweden when you've got a war zone next door. We don't have an accurate picture of where it is in Ontario, so we have to let it die out.

We might be playing it too safe regarding schools. But there's only 2 months left, so I see it as pointless to put them back in. Testing has been rationed across the globe, so I don't know how accurate any early data could be to determine whether kids could be super spreaders. I know that a lot of people have 3 generations in a home in the GTA.

also Sweden is having 3x the deaths/population as Canada is, i wouldnt want to operate like Sweden even if US was doing better.
UK started this pandemic with the herd immunity idea...they quickly realized that was disastrous.

I think there probably is a way to successfully secure LTC facilities and minimize the crush to achieve this, but we couldn't do it first go around and it doesn't look like Sweden could, either. And there'd still be the risk that we were operating on assumptions of the virus based on early studies from the first few months of the outbreak. Plus, the time to make that judgement call is long gone. Going the Swedish route midway is just stupid. See this thing through the first wave and then make decisions based on more robust data.

I agree, and yeah securign LTC facilities will be essential moving forward. Weve got so many outbreaks in Ontario

[Fairview4Life]

I'm afraid many read twitter and listen to the doom and gloom media instead of looking at the facts - The numbers are available on our governments sites and if we are going just off what they do confirmed cases well guess what? Influenza and pneumonia was more deadly.

Save your charts and opinions from so called 'experts' on twitter etc who think they know everything and just look at the only thing that matters and those are the facts that are provided to us from our own government.

The virus is real but it's not that deadly.

Canada's Numbers:

2018-19 Influenza and pneumonia death: 8,511 ( 39,192 confirmed cases)
Covid-19 death: 2,984 ( 51,231 confirmed cares)

https://ipac-canada.org/influenza-resources.php?fbclid=IwAR04IaGw-AfwDjAXujaWVPHTvbZcxKgSegrTCjmAE745N1-053Fj5guLSHc

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1310039401&fbclid=IwAR1BxkCq0YDf47V-RGfyaESCb6LHXWJMPEaJlfbYmpgQvOUruH-FpgeBWvQ

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/canada/

Your flu death numbers included pneumonia (but confirmed cases didn’t) and you included open cases in the caronavirus infection numbers, fyi. The closed caronavirus cases number lists the death rate at 13%. Which doesn’t sound great to me.

It’s also not the real rate obviously, but you’re the one who doesn’t seem to care about context, just the facts.

[mtcan]

https://toronto.citynews.ca/2020/04/28/jesse-ketchum-daycare-coronavirus-toronto/
3 people infected at one of Toronto's emergency child care centres. Ooops

There are seriously people on here advocating for kids going back to school while this is front and center on the news. Absolutely mind boggling.

Another staff member and a 8 month old child are also infected.

edit:1 child

Yep...4 staff and an 8 month old. This is what an outbreak looks like...and this is a day care that looks after 58 children. Imagine this being an elementary school with a few hundred kids and about 50 or so staff.

This school year is done for...it isn't yet official...but its only a formality at this point. I'm totally fine with that.

[OAKLEY_2]

Great numbers today for Ontario! Let's hope the trend continues.

Numbers in Quebec are driving any hysteria in Canada. They have about triple the numbers per capita compared to other provinces. Keep waiting for their numbers to come down but they don’t.

Ontario quadrupled testing in the last 3 weeks and the numbers of cases per day have started declining. We know exactly where we are with this pandemic in Ontario- improving. Ontario and the rest of Canada are doing great with containment efforts and should start the first stages of reopening.

If you look at deaths as percentage of total cases none of the numbers add up. Ontario and Quebec both have too high a percentage of deaths to confirmed cases and that means one thing. Lack of testing, and we know we got caught ill prepared with our horrendous supply chains meaning we have far more active cases in Ontario and Quebec than is reported and that is the smoking gun reason why so many daily cases are still being confirmed from the somewhat limited testing available. That means July 1 is best case scenario for ease back phase one. Anything else is window dressing. Schools? What is the point? They only have a few weeks left. So we have to ask ourselves is this just for morale like telling the troops the enemy has pulled back when in fact it has a larger presence than the more wishful thinkers among us had hoped?

[mtcan]

There's no one country you can point to as a reference. Canada's largest trading partner and only bordered neighbour is on fire. You can't operate like Sweden when you've got a war zone next door. We don't have an accurate picture of where it is in Ontario, so we have to let it die out.

We might be playing it too safe regarding schools. But there's only 2 months left, so I see it as pointless to put them back in. Testing has been rationed across the globe, so I don't know how accurate any early data could be to determine whether kids could be super spreaders. I know that a lot of people have 3 generations in a home in the GTA.

also Sweden is having 3x the deaths/population as Canada is, i wouldnt want to operate like Sweden even if US was doing better.
UK started this pandemic with the herd immunity idea...they quickly realized that was disastrous.

I would rather compare Sweden to Ontario since Ontario has a population of close to 15 million vs 11 million in Sweden. Sweden has close 20000 cases and 2400 deaths. Ontario has 15000ish cases and 1000ish cases.

Would I implement measures to keep 5000 more people from getting the virus and keep 1400 more people from dying...absolutely. Of those 1400 lives saved...it could be you or someone you know that could otherwise not be here right now.

[VicG]

Great numbers today for Ontario! Let's hope the trend continues.

Numbers in Quebec are driving any hysteria in Canada. They have about triple the numbers per capita compared to other provinces. Keep waiting for their numbers to come down but they don’t.

Ontario quadrupled testing in the last 3 weeks and the numbers of cases per day have started declining. We know exactly where we are with this pandemic in Ontario- improving. Ontario and the rest of Canada are doing great with containment efforts and should start the first stages of reopening.

If you look at deaths as percentage of total cases none of the numbers add up. Ontario and Quebec both have too high a percentage of deaths to confirmed cases and that means one thing. Lack of testing, and we know we got caught ill prepared with our horrendous supply chains meaning we have far more active cases in Ontario and Quebec than is reported and that is the smoking gun reason why so many daily cases are still being confirmed from the somewhat limited testing available. That means July 1 is best case scenario for ease back phase one. Anything else is window dressing. Schools? What is the point? They only have a few weeks left. So we have to ask ourselves is this just for morale like telling the troops the enemy has pulled back when in fact it has a larger presence than the more wishful thinkers among us had hoped?

I think it adds up if you consider almost 80% of all deaths were in long-term care homes.

Per the province's #s, the mortality rate in LTC is about 23%. If you take that out of the general population numbers, the mortality rate is like 1.5%.

Another interesting number to take into account for testing is that only 5% of people test positive. In other words, 95% of people had symptoms or exposures that warranted testing and ended up not having the virus.

The hospitalization and ICU #s have been relatively stable in Ontario for a few weeks now.

That said, I am not really disagreeing much in terms of your timeline. I would reckon it'll be June though when things start loosening up.

[Fairview4Life]

I don't know if that is anywhere near as conclusive as you make it sound.

We didn't know much six weeks ago. And thanks to different death reporting techniques and an inability/unwillingness to conduct systematic tests, we still don't know much. But still people will opine. Nothing wrong with that, but I hope no-one has started to think that their opinion actually means anything.

I'm the last person on earth to call any research paper "conclusive" (to intentionally use scare quotes). Especially one written in haste in the middle of a panic/pandemic. Especially one taking evidence from a place where people get lots of Vitamin D. But if it seems to be written by reputable professionals, properly peer reviewed and not funded by a drug company, then I would pay it more heed than anyone's mere opinion or anecdotes about breakouts at Sick Kids. Obviously anecdotes happen, but they usually aren't a basis for policy making. Oh no! The Iraqi army is storming into Kuwait hospitals and killing babi... oh wait, that didn't actually happen. nvm

I've got two school-age kids and my wife's a teacher, so I was in favour of closing the schools to see what was what. I was on board with the whole "flatten the curve" strategy, so that the ICUs wouldn't be overwhelmed and the area under the curve - i.e. actual deaths - would be reduced. But not eliminated. The cost of attempting to eliminate deaths and the risk of deaths seems way too high. Especially when there is no clear exit strategy. A cure? A vaccine? And until then my kids can't go out to play with other kids - and expose themselves to all the normal risks of childhood?

Every day I look at the NYC deaths. Here it is for today.

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-daily-data-summary-deaths-04292020-1.pdf

12,000 total deaths. Roughly 75% had diagnosed underlying conditions (diabetes, hypertension, obesity, asthma etc). 25% were "underlying conditions unknown". Around 0.57% had ZERO underlying conditions. Zero otherwise healthy kids aged 0-17 have died Six kids with underlying conditions did die. So we all know, this disease hits old people and those with metabolic health issues. So protect them, and let the rest of us live our lives. That's what Sweden is doing. [I mean, they've got a voluntary social distancing/work from home if you can policy, but grades below high school are going to classes]

But that's just my opinion, based on how I read the evidence. YMMV

Not sure how this fits into the vitamin D discussion. Georgia isn’t exactly a northern state.

Read on Twitter

[RoLo]

I'm afraid many read twitter and listen to the doom and gloom media instead of looking at the facts - The numbers are available on our governments sites and if we are going just off what they do confirmed cases well guess what? Influenza and pneumonia was more deadly.

Save your charts and opinions from so called 'experts' on twitter etc who think they know everything and just look at the only thing that matters and those are the facts that are provided to us from our own government.

The virus is real but it's not that deadly.

Canada's Numbers:

2018-19 Influenza and pneumonia death: 8,511 ( 39,192 confirmed cases)
Covid-19 death: 2,984 ( 51,231 confirmed cares)

https://ipac-canada.org/influenza-resources.php?fbclid=IwAR04IaGw-AfwDjAXujaWVPHTvbZcxKgSegrTCjmAE745N1-053Fj5guLSHc

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1310039401&fbclid=IwAR1BxkCq0YDf47V-RGfyaESCb6LHXWJMPEaJlfbYmpgQvOUruH-FpgeBWvQ

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/canada/

im not sure why you or anyone for that matter is still comparing annual flu deaths, for which we have treatment and vaccine for, to a novel pathogen who has shown its infectivity rates to be one of the higher ones in modern history, let alone comparing 2 months months worth of data to years' worth of flu data. think about it. if u were to devise a virus that would wipe out the most amount of humans, this is exactly the type of virus u would make. its not its virulence that makes it special. something as deadly as ebola would never become a pandemic like this. not in 2020. but this? its perfect. its top 2 properties are 1. its transmissibility and 2. its symptoms (or lack of). how deadly it is would be 3rd or lower. if u were to argue that its not worth it to close everything down and fall prey to the hysteria because you simply dont believe protecting the 60+ year olds are worth it for everyone elses' futures, thats fine — there is an argument u can make there. this is a judgement free zone. but dont use another just a flu bro pretext. its god damn exhausting.

[Vaclac]

I guess the great park ticketing blitz of a couple weeks ago was a huge mistake? Now we're told specifically that we should go outside and the risk of going to a park is minuscule. The speed with which authorities do complete 180s on this and masks is really head spinning.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/please-go-outside-dr-bonnie-henry-says-covid-19-much-less-likely-to-spread-outdoors-1.5550191

[ruckus]

I'm afraid many read twitter and listen to the doom and gloom media instead of looking at the facts - The numbers are available on our governments sites and if we are going just off what they do confirmed cases well guess what? Influenza and pneumonia was more deadly.

Save your charts and opinions from so called 'experts' on twitter etc who think they know everything and just look at the only thing that matters and those are the facts that are provided to us from our own government.

The virus is real but it's not that deadly.

Canada's Numbers:

2018-19 Influenza and pneumonia death: 8,511 ( 39,192 confirmed cases)
Covid-19 death: 2,984 ( 51,231 confirmed cares)

https://ipac-canada.org/influenza-resources.php?fbclid=IwAR04IaGw-AfwDjAXujaWVPHTvbZcxKgSegrTCjmAE745N1-053Fj5guLSHc

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1310039401&fbclid=IwAR1BxkCq0YDf47V-RGfyaESCb6LHXWJMPEaJlfbYmpgQvOUruH-FpgeBWvQ

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/canada/

im not sure why you or anyone for that matter is still comparing annual flu deaths, for which we have treatment and vaccine for, to a novel pathogen who has shown its infectivity rates to be one of the higher ones in modern history, let alone comparing 2 months months worth of data to years' worth of flu data. think about it. if u were to devise a virus that would wipe out the most amount of humans, this is exactly the type of virus u would make. its not its virulence that makes it special. something as deadly as ebola would never become a pandemic like this. not in 2020. but this? its perfect. its top 2 properties are 1. its transmissibility and 2. its symptoms (or lack of). how deadly it is would be 3rd or lower. if u were to argue that its not worth it to close everything down and fall prey to the hysteria because you simply dont believe protecting the 60+ year olds are worth it for everyone elses' futures, thats fine — there is an argument u can make there. this is a judgement free zone. but dont use another just a flu bro pretext. its god damn exhausting.

Judgement free? I'm totally judging some of the posters on here.

For a basketball forum, some people's bball knowledge here is sketchy enough. Now everyone is an expert on infectious diseases?