OT: COVID-19 Ontario 2nd Wave Thread

[jaymeister15]

So, sounds like it's going to be for a full month

We'll see if they give any specific data during the announcement, but doing these blanket business/industry shutdowns was one thing at the start of the pandemic. Given how much more we know now and how long gyms, restaurants, etc. have been opened with the new restrictions, shutting them down and affecting thousands of peoples livelihood again should require more than just a general "these are high risk activities" statement (which would be far more applicable before restrictions were in place)

If they are still more high risk than any other business despite the restrictions, then it should be easy to point to concrete data and outbreaks to justify closing them. If they don't do that, and just stick with the "high risk activity" line of reasoning from the initial lockdown, it's ridiculous and a complete disservice to all these businesses that managed to survive to this point and have put large sums of time and money to re-start only to be told to shut their doors for another month.

[MixxSRC]

so they better freeze OSAP repayment again if they do that

[GreatWhiteStiff]

"shutting them down and affecting thousands of peoples livelihood again should require more than just a general "these are high risk activities" statement (which would be far more applicable before restrictions were in place)"

well people are getting covid19 and dying. These places generally spread the disease. I think that's why they're getting shut down. How much of a standard do you need? How much proof is required IYO?

[Local_NG_Idiot]

So, sounds like it's going to be for a full month

We'll see if they give any specific data during the announcement, but doing these blanket business/industry shutdowns was one thing at the start of the pandemic. Given how much more we know now and how long gyms, restaurants, etc. have been opened with the new restrictions, shutting them down and affecting thousands of peoples livelihood again should require more than just a general "these are high risk activities" statement (which would be far more applicable before restrictions were in place)

If they are still more high risk than any other business despite the restrictions, then it should be easy to point to concrete data and outbreaks to justify closing them. If they don't do that, and just stick with the "high risk activity" line of reasoning from the initial lockdown, it's ridiculous and a complete disservice to all these businesses that managed to survive to this point and have put large sums of time and money to re-start only to be told to shut their doors for another month.

The data is already out there, 35-40% of GTA community outbreaks are from bars/restaurants, another 20% from unregulated gatherings.

[jaymeister15]

"shutting them down and affecting thousands of peoples livelihood again should require more than just a general "these are high risk activities" statement (which would be far more applicable before restrictions were in place)"

well people are getting covid19 and dying. These places generally spread the disease. I think that's why they're getting shut down. How much of a standard do you need? How much proof is required IYO?

Do they generally spread the disease though with the restrictions in place?

To me, the proof required would be specific data confirming that COVID has been spreading within theses businesses at any higher rate than the average business or at all for that matter (which wouldn't include the headlines where a gym is shut down because one employee tested positive after getting it who knows where, but there were no additional cases).

They've been opened for a couple months now, and contact tracing was being done up until the last week or so. If gyms (for example) are still a high risk business, it should be very easy to show the number of outbreaks caused by them.

[jaymeister15]

The data is already out there, 35-40% of GTA community outbreaks are from bars/restaurants, another 20% from unregulated gatherings.

Do you have a source for that? (I don't mean that sarcastically). The only articles I've seen quoting a number that high were referencing only 1 specific week with a very small sample size (something like 20 out of 45 for that week if I remember correctly), but the overall percentage since restaurants opened was much lower.

How about Gyms? Even forgetting the financial implications for the business owners, employees etc., the general health benefits of gyms being open should require some sort of concrete evidence that the restrictions they are adhering to currently aren't working before shutting them down again.

[Local_NG_Idiot]

The data is already out there, 35-40% of GTA community outbreaks are from bars/restaurants, another 20% from unregulated gatherings.

Do you have a source for that? (I don't mean that sarcastically). The only articles I've seen quoting a number that high were referencing only 1 specific week with a very small sample size (something like 20 out of 45 for that week if I remember correctly), but the overall percentage since restaurants opened was much lower.

How about Gyms? Even forgetting the financial implications for the business owners, employees etc., the general health benefits of gyms being open should require some sort of concrete evidence that the restrictions they are adhering to currently aren't working before shutting them down again.

Toronto public health has published the data and it's based on the current active breakouts.

[BigBoss23]

Read on Twitter

?s=21

[ItsDanger]

This is from Toronto Public Health which shows "source" of positive cases. Weekly, About 10 days lag. I cannot make any conclusions from it. Under Epidemiological Summary of Cases

https://www.toronto.ca/home/covid-19/covid-19-latest-city-of-toronto-news/covid-19-status-of-cases-in-toronto/

[Raptors_Dynasty]

They going to keep malls open still?

[M3tro]

Lots of vacancies in Oshawa.

I always find it funny when people complain about the real estate and rent prices in Toronto as though they're entitled to HAVE to live in the big city. London, Paris, New York, Tokyo and Shanghai all make Toronto look like a bargain.

You want to live in a world class city, but want to pay peanuts to do so. That's not how it works.

Most people living in Toronto work in Toronto. Commuting 3+ hours back and forth from work every day is a waste of life.

Apparently it's not problematic that the bungalow in Etobicoke which costed $350,000 in 2001 and now costs 1.6 million since we're a "world class city". But hey, you can pay $400,000 for that same bungalow in the 'Shwa. Thank God for Spotify and the Joe Rogan Experience, you can actually improve yourself every day!

Sounds like you're just mad you don't own that bungalow brother.

Foreign buyers tax. COVID-19 global pandemic. Yet Toronto prices are still soaring with no signs of slowing down in sight.

Here's the solution to your problem. Move where you can afford to live. The city and the landlords in it don't owe you anything.

[wayoftheroad]

With the cases going up does that mean mortgage deferrals coming back? Probably not

[Clay Davis]

Most people living in Toronto work in Toronto. Commuting 3+ hours back and forth from work every day is a waste of life.

Apparently it's not problematic that the bungalow in Etobicoke which costed $350,000 in 2001 and now costs 1.6 million since we're a "world class city". But hey, you can pay $400,000 for that same bungalow in the 'Shwa. Thank God for Spotify and the Joe Rogan Experience, you can actually improve yourself every day!

Sounds like you're just mad you don't own that bungalow brother.

Foreign buyers tax. COVID-19 global pandemic. Yet Toronto prices are still soaring with no signs of slowing down in sight.

Here's the solution to your problem. Move where you can afford to live. The city and the landlords in it don't owe you anything.

Lol, saying 'move somewhere where homes aren't swiss bank accounts' doesn't account for the fact that homes have become swiss bank accounts. Let's see how much of a world class city we are with rampant homelessness and drug use... maybe then we can convince free agents we're not as unlike California as they mighta thought

Don't compare us with New York and London. We haven't started any companies that have changed the world. We're more like Sydney than the Big Apple (and before you start doing some research, that's not a position we should wanna be in).

And yes, I pay taxes, and I'm a stakeholder in a democracy. Do you know what "democracy" means? Maybe you should think about it and reflect on the effects of implementing quantitative easing at the height of speculative bubble. It'll make what happened in the States from 2006-2007 look pleasant... I mean say what you want about the American economy, at least they have actual industries. What do we have? Not much of note and an aging demographic that's just waiting to overburden the medical system when their decades of drinking beer and eating like degenerates catches up to them.

So... no point about being mad about not owning that bungalow when I can be patient and liquid instead

Also, dodging foreign buyer's tax and land transfer taxes was a walk in the park 5 years ago. Plenty of more loopholes to crush. As long as Chinese capital is fleeing the eyes of Xi, there's mutual gain to be made between our politicians who wanna sell us fools gold (and make it look shinier in the process) and the people hiding their cash.

[Clay Davis]

The data is already out there, 35-40% of GTA community outbreaks are from bars/restaurants, another 20% from unregulated gatherings.

Do you have a source for that? (I don't mean that sarcastically). The only articles I've seen quoting a number that high were referencing only 1 specific week with a very small sample size (something like 20 out of 45 for that week if I remember correctly), but the overall percentage since restaurants opened was much lower.

How about Gyms? Even forgetting the financial implications for the business owners, employees etc., the general health benefits of gyms being open should require some sort of concrete evidence that the restrictions they are adhering to currently aren't working before shutting them down again.

Gyms will do just fine. Premiere Ford is going to roll out some more awesome recipes for desserts, like his cheesecake recipe, and people will be so obese and depressed by the time the 28 days are completed that they'll re-register en masse.

[Ackshun]

"shutting them down and affecting thousands of peoples livelihood again should require more than just a general "these are high risk activities" statement (which would be far more applicable before restrictions were in place)"

well people are getting covid19 and dying. These places generally spread the disease. I think that's why they're getting shut down. How much of a standard do you need? How much proof is required IYO?

"These places". I think that's exactly what he meant by blanket statements.

I run a restaurant in Durham serving just under 3000 meals per week. Our other location in Durham serves about the same. Yet, none of my 124 employees have contracted the virus. None of their families. Nobody in our second location either. Have not heard of any cases since we opened in June come through our building even though everyone has the Ontario app on their phone.

Most restaurants are doing everything needed to create a safe environment. The government should target the ones that are not, instead of scapegoating an entire industry.

[Kevin Willis]

With the cases going up does that mean mortgage deferrals coming back? Probably not

No they're not coming back. Not only that but they're not going to delay payment of property tax from the end of the year. The banks and the city need their money in order to function.

[Kevin Willis]

"shutting them down and affecting thousands of peoples livelihood again should require more than just a general "these are high risk activities" statement (which would be far more applicable before restrictions were in place)"

well people are getting covid19 and dying. These places generally spread the disease. I think that's why they're getting shut down. How much of a standard do you need? How much proof is required IYO?

"These places". I think that's exactly what he meant by blanket statements.

I run a restaurant in Durham serving just under 3000 meals per week. Our other location in Durham serves about the same. Yet, none of my 124 employees have contracted the virus. None of their families. Nobody in our second location either. Have not heard of any cases since we opened in June come through our building even though everyone has the Ontario app on their phone.

Most restaurants are doing everything needed to create a safe environment. The government should target the ones that are not, instead of scapegoating an entire industry.

That would be tough to do because tomorrow some idiot can come into your restaurant with the virus, take his/her mask off to eat and spread it. It's more of protecting people from themselves than criticizing businesses. All people need to do is follow guidelines and now the numbers are swinging to the young who are more active.

It sucks for businesses but it has to be controlled now before it escalates.

[DelAbbot]

This is from Toronto Public Health which shows "source" of positive cases. Weekly, About 10 days lag. I cannot make any conclusions from it. Under Epidemiological Summary of Cases

https://www.toronto.ca/home/covid-19/covid-19-latest-city-of-toronto-news/covid-19-status-of-cases-in-toronto/

Thanks for the link. Looking at the active outbreaks in Toronto page

7 Child care centres
7 School
9 Shelters
13 Healthcare institutions (including LTC)
81 Community & Workplace settings (workplace, places of worship, food establishment, groceries stores).

So it's clear that schools and child care are a lower spreading location - so no need to shut them down.
The real problem is in Community & Workplace settings (70% of active outbreaks). We are shutting down all bars and restaurants from dining in, that appears to be a good step even if overprotective. Groceries and worship locations are considered essential so we can't shut them down.

[JJWong17]

This is from Toronto Public Health which shows "source" of positive cases. Weekly, About 10 days lag. I cannot make any conclusions from it. Under Epidemiological Summary of Cases

https://www.toronto.ca/home/covid-19/covid-19-latest-city-of-toronto-news/covid-19-status-of-cases-in-toronto/

Thanks for the link. Looking at the active outbreaks in Toronto page

7 Child care centres
7 School
9 Shelters
13 Healthcare institutions (including LTC)
81 Community & Workplace settings (workplace, places of worship, food establishment, groceries stores).

So it's clear that schools and child care are a lower spreading location - so no need to shut them down.
The real problem is in Community & Workplace settings (70% of active outbreaks). We are shutting down all bars and restaurants from dining in, that appears to be a good step even if overprotective. Groceries and worship locations are considered essential so we can't shut them down.

From listening to epidemiological experts, overreacting is the proper reaction. I think the reality is that the distance between reacting too much and reacting not enough is so small that trying to hit the perfect sweet spot of doing just enough isn't worth it given the possible consequences of miscalculating

I understand that financial pressures were largely the reason behind progressing in stages but it really feels like Ontario jumped the gun each time. We never let cases really get down to the recommended low levels and were always a week or two early on the decision

[Bankai]

Like I said before, I am not surprised that the biggest outbreaks are happening in workplace environments. CERB is over, their is no incentive to stay at home anymore, people need to go out and work to survive, but they run the risk of getting infected. Closing Gyms and Theatres again, does not solve this issue. Blaming people who need to go out to work is totally the wrong approach.

My Sister is a Waitress, how can she make a living when her Restaurant is being forced to close again, and their is no CERB? Some of these government officials seem out of touch. Particularly, Dr. Tam who seems really keen at just shaming the Citizens.

You want people to stay inside? Give them another CERB. Or live with the fact that people will have to live with the risks.