2023 Draft Discussion Part 4

[DreamTeam09]

Read on Twitter

He’s a typical high school sophomore and a once-in-a-generation talent. He’s the pride of Ypsilanti, Mich., and the future of the NBA. Not even old enough to drive and likely to be a straight-to-the-NBA No. 1 Pick, Emoni Bates is both a product of his era and way ahead of his time.

The media is twisted! How does a once-in-a-generation talent become an afterthought?

He shouldn't of been that touted to begin with, but he shouldn't be this disrespected right now either.

[grant101]

Nick Smith Jr. was my guy at the beginning of the season based on his skills as a scorer and playmaker. I thought he would end up a top five value player if he came into college and showed what he did at the Jordan Brand Classic. This is a scrimmage where defense is optional, but you can see his creativity with the ball and lethal shooting from different levels:

Watch on YouTube

No doubt the poor college shooting numbers are what people will focus on. I think the combination of limited games, some injury impacts that killed his practice availability, playing more off ball kept him out of rhythm. College is different than the NBA. Less games and everything being so intense that coaches rely on a lot of different data like Catapult Data that Musselman refers to, and I think he subtly hinted at Smith's condition post-injury being a concern.

Read on Twitter

Smith Jr. did have a four game sample in late February where it all came together and he scored over 24 PPG including this fascinating match-up against Brandon Miller / Alabama:

Watch on YouTube

;t=431s

+Pedigree / Klutch Sports signed
+NBA level speed/handle
+Mid range diversity with jumpshot and floater
+Smooth distance release
+Lead guard more in the mold of De'Aaron Fox

-Health/knee concerns

I think they will have to dig into private workouts with him but from what I read earlier, he is a gym rat who goes hard in practice and games. I just think he got a good runway to play at his best and by the tournament coach went away from him.

If you were to have told me in October that NSJ was a possibility at our pick, I would be pumped. There's a very real possibility that the injury masked his true potential (I think his stock might actually have been higher had he not come back and you could tell he was pressing when he came back). Like you, I love his speed with the ball, fight on defense, and the jump shot is smooth and pretty (I think his percentages correct in the league).

My biggest concern with NSJ is his finishing in the paint. He almost never gets to the rim on dribble drives (unlike say, Fox). None of his shots seem to be easy, and his over reliance on that floater is scary. He likely won't do it, but he'd be smart to play at the combine and show other parts of his game. Otherwise, you're drafting a mystery box in many ways cause even in his HS tape, he rarely took it to the rim

[HumbleRen]

Neither does Trae Young or Steph Curry...now he's not those guys, but he's one of the most skilled guys in the draft. There's more than one way to skin a cat or score a basketball.

This is a reach lol.

Trae and Curry both have lethal first steps. They can blow by their defender at will.

'Although he is not the most explosive athlete, the threat of his jumper forces defenders to guard him way out on the perimeter, making it easier for him to get by his man and into the paint … [player] has shown the ability to create his own shot from inside the arc with a solid handle … He has a great floater from the mid range area as well that he can score with consistently when he is not able to get all the way to the rim …'

-nbadraft.net on

Spoiler:

Trae

'Far below NBA standard in regard to explosivenes and athleticism...Not a great finisher around the basket due to his size and physical attributes'

-nbadraft.net on

Spoiler:

Steph

Explosiveness doesn’t = first step.

Haliburton isn’t explosive at all but he can get by his defender at will. Luka as well.

[Spates]

Bigger than Terq

Most of these scoring guards 'are what they are' and they scale up by proving they can carry more of an offensive load in the NBA.

Fine, yes he is bigger than Terq lol. Size isn't the be-all and end-all, it's apart of the larger package. Podz size is concerning due to an apparent lack of strength and quickness. Terq is smaller but the questions aren't around his physical appropriateness for NBA ball, his questions seem to be around decision-making.

Let's check back in after the combine. Terq was 165 at last combine. There are definitely questions about his size.

The biggest question with Smith moving forward is his frame. The 6-4 guard has the size and athleticism to conquer his opponents, but his thin frame has left some questions with NBA decision-makers. Smith weighs just 165 pounds, something that has raised some doubters about how he would deal with the physicality of the NBA.

I haven't seen any questions about Podziemski being too weak for the NBA. It's a given that all of these scoring guards will have to get stronger.

Gotcha, gotcha. When Terq looks amazing out there I'm coming to you with a **** grin.

165 tho... He's a paper weight lol.

[UnbelievablyRAW]

Whoever we draft needs to have confidence. Seeing Keegan looking like he has some balls against the Warriors made me higher on him

[Dalek]

If you were to have told me in October that NSJ was a possibility at our pick, I would be pumped. There's a very real possibility that the injury masked his true potential (I think his stock might actually have been higher had he not come back and you could tell he was pressing when he came back). Like you, I love his speed with the ball, fight on defense, and the jump shot is smooth and pretty (I think his percentages correct in the league).

My biggest concern with NSJ is his finishing in the paint. He almost never gets to the rim on dribble drives (unlike say, Fox). None of his shots seem to be easy, and his over reliance on that floater is scary. He likely won't do it, but he'd be smart to play at the combine and show other parts of his game. Otherwise, you're drafting a mystery box in many ways cause even in his HS tape, he rarely took it to the rim

NSJ's aversion to the rim seems to be a theme from a lot of the draft people and I agree it stands out given his size and speed. I do think it is a concern which could be helped by him getting stronger. Him being 6'5 and having around a 6'9 wingspan along with decent wiggle/shake will allow him to get to his floater and midrange shots.

Floaters are the ongoing NBA trend for guards and other scorers because all defense over rely on rim protection and guarding the three.

The paint has bigger players packed in it, and you see drop coverages that really give rise to the floater. Trae, Garland, Morant and others like Maxey and Quickly all use it because that is where you can get a high percentage look, while having a big in place for any rebounds. Even guys like Luka and Booker prefer mid-range with their shot diet.

This draft you have a ton of guards/wings who use it: Hood-Schifino, Strawther, Pod, Terq all pretty reliant on floaters and mid-range. I don't think it is far-fetched to say that long-term NSJ becomes proficient like the others because he has really good form and is just quicker and longer than these other players in most cases.

If Toronto wants a lead guard he has ideal size and speed at the position. I don't think Smith will play at the Combine as there is too little to gain in that environment, but in workouts you want to see where he is at.

[Grew]

Read on Twitter

He’s a typical high school sophomore and a once-in-a-generation talent. He’s the pride of Ypsilanti, Mich., and the future of the NBA. Not even old enough to drive and likely to be a straight-to-the-NBA No. 1 Pick, Emoni Bates is both a product of his era and way ahead of his time.

The media is twisted! How does a once-in-a-generation talent become an afterthought?

9th Grade Emoni was 6'8, pulling 3's in peoples faces off crossovers while rebounding, blocking shots and dunking on people with ferocity. He was one of the more interesting prospects in high school basketball as a freshman and did look like a possible future number one overall pick. Most people were projecting he would grow to around 7 feet and be a versatile big man along the lines of Wembanyama. Mans never got any taller, barely got any more muscular and fell in love with shooting deep 3's while forgetting the rest of the game.

He's still an interesting shot maker, could end up being a steal. He might have let all the early attention go to his head, could also see him flaking out of the league pretty quick.

[grant101]

If you were to have told me in October that NSJ was a possibility at our pick, I would be pumped. There's a very real possibility that the injury masked his true potential (I think his stock might actually have been higher had he not come back and you could tell he was pressing when he came back). Like you, I love his speed with the ball, fight on defense, and the jump shot is smooth and pretty (I think his percentages correct in the league).

My biggest concern with NSJ is his finishing in the paint. He almost never gets to the rim on dribble drives (unlike say, Fox). None of his shots seem to be easy, and his over reliance on that floater is scary. He likely won't do it, but he'd be smart to play at the combine and show other parts of his game. Otherwise, you're drafting a mystery box in many ways cause even in his HS tape, he rarely took it to the rim

NSJ's aversion to the rim seems to be a theme from a lot of the draft people and I agree it stands out given his size and speed. I do think it is a concern which could be helped by him getting stronger. Him being 6'5 and having around a 6'9 wingspan along with decent wiggle/shake will allow him to get to his floater and midrange shots.

Floaters are the ongoing NBA trend for guards and other scorers because all defense over rely on rim protection and guarding the three.

The paint has bigger players packed in it, and you see drop coverages that really give rise to the floater. Trae, Garland, Morant and others like Maxey and Quickly all use it because that is where you can get a high percentage look, while having a big in place for any rebounds. Even guys like Luka and Booker prefer mid-range with their shot diet.

This draft you have a ton of guards/wings who use it: Hood-Schifino, Strawther, Pod, Terq all pretty reliant on floaters and mid-range. I don't think it is far-fetched to say that long-term NSJ becomes proficient like the others because he has really good form and is just quicker and longer than these other players in most cases.

If Toronto wants a lead guard he has ideal size and speed at the position. I don't think Smith will play at the Combine as there is too little to gain in that environment, but in workouts you want to see where he is at.

I agree with that modern guards need the floater in their toolbox to be successful, particularly against drop coverages. But, all the other guards you mentioned are able to leverage their shot and dribble moves to at least occasionally be a threat at the rim. I just don't see this (like almost never) from NSJ. I'm not sure if this is a "can't" issue, or a "hasnt showcased it yet" thing (because of injuries, craamped spacing, team role, etc.).

If it's the latter I think he can really help himself by playing at the combine though I agree it's unlikely.

[Dalek]

Overall for Nick Smith Jr. you still see him pretty high on most boards and it is based on talent, his overall track record, and that he is the good version of a combo guard (good size and skill mix).

Guys like Anthony Black and Cason Wallace will get on the floor because of defense, but like other defenders you wonder if they have enough on offense to be more than change of pace back-ups. Similar NBA guys like Dyson Daniels and Davion Mitchell have had their moments, but they are more bench players in the NBA to date.

Top PGs in the NBA in their early career according to 538's WAR:
1. Darius Garland
2. Ja Morant
3. Tyrese Haliburton
4. Immanuel Quickley

Nick Smith Jr. is somewhere in that spectrum, with his size, speed, handle and scoring.

[Psubs]

Nick Smith Jr. was my guy at the beginning of the season based on his skills as a scorer and playmaker. I thought he would end up a top five value player if he came into college and showed what he did at the Jordan Brand Classic. This is a scrimmage where defense is optional, but you can see his creativity with the ball and lethal shooting from different levels:

Watch on YouTube

No doubt the poor college shooting numbers are what people will focus on. I think the combination of limited games, some injury impacts that killed his practice availability, playing more off ball kept him out of rhythm. College is different than the NBA. Less games and everything being so intense that coaches rely on a lot of different data like Catapult Data that Musselman refers to, and I think he subtly hinted at Smith's condition post-injury being a concern.

Read on Twitter

Smith Jr. did have a four game sample in late February where it all came together and he scored over 24 PPG including this fascinating match-up against Brandon Miller / Alabama:

Watch on YouTube

;t=431s

+Pedigree / Klutch Sports signed
+NBA level speed/handle
+Mid range diversity with jumpshot and floater
+Smooth distance release
+Lead guard more in the mold of De'Aaron Fox

-Health/knee concerns

I think they will have to dig into private workouts with him but from what I read earlier, he is a gym rat who goes hard in practice and games. I just think he got a good runway to play at his best and by the tournament coach went away from him.

If you were to have told me in October that NSJ was a possibility at our pick, I would be pumped. There's a very real possibility that the injury masked his true potential (I think his stock might actually have been higher had he not come back and you could tell he was pressing when he came back). Like you, I love his speed with the ball, fight on defense, and the jump shot is smooth and pretty (I think his percentages correct in the league).

My biggest concern with NSJ is his finishing in the paint. He almost never gets to the rim on dribble drives (unlike say, Fox). None of his shots seem to be easy, and his over reliance on that floater is scary. He likely won't do it, but he'd be smart to play at the combine and show other parts of his game. Otherwise, you're drafting a mystery box in many ways cause even in his HS tape, he rarely took it to the rim

He looks like a quicker, more athletic and flashier Delon Wright. I trust our scouts.

[Yallbecrazy]

Wallace was a lot better than NSJ on offense this past year.

Often highly hyped guys out of high school who disappoint in college don't do well in the NBA. I can't think of any off the top of my head that have actually succeeded.

High school hype is near worthless when evaluating a prospect who has far more relevant college experience to look at.

If you look at the top guys in the NBA that came from college they were all over the high school rankings and less than 20% of the guys ranked 5-20 in RSCI each year end up being even rotation guys in the NBA. Of those 20% I think nearly all of them were pretty good in college.

I get that NSJ may have been injured, but he was so bad that I can't see him being good in the NBA. People talk about his floater as if it's a weapon and while he uses it a lot, he's not actually good at it. He was less than 40% on it, many guys in the NBA don't use the floater because only a few are actually good at it since it's such a difficult shot. NSJ's reliance on it shows a negative bbiq since he's actually bad at it.

[WuTang_CMB]

NSJ was pretty garbage this season and the eye test matches the numbers. 47%TS. 0.7BPM. Subpar defense. DND.

[JRoy]

NSJ was pretty garbage this season and the eye test matches the numbers. 47%TS. 0.7BPM. Subpar defense. DND.

DND = Do Not Draft?

[Yallbecrazy]

NSJ was pretty garbage this season and the eye test matches the numbers. 47%TS. 0.7BPM. Subpar defense. DND.

DND = Do Not Draft?

There's a number of guys here who wouldn't take him anywhere in the first, this draft is so weak I might take a flier on him mid to late 2nd if no one else was on the board I found intriguing. It's a needless hypothetical though since he will be drafted in the top 40, it's just a matter of late lottery to early 2nd.

[WuTang_CMB]

NSJ was pretty garbage this season and the eye test matches the numbers. 47%TS. 0.7BPM. Subpar defense. DND.

DND = Do Not Draft?

I hope you guys get the # 1 pick.

[JRoy]

I hope you guys get a great deal trading OG and/or Siakam.

Just not from my team.

[Dalek]

Watching that Philly upset of Boston, you had guards closing:

Maxey/Melton/Harden with Reed and Harris

Two of White/Brogdon/Smart with Brown, Tatum and Horford

The whole 6'9 idea is garbage against talented guards - 6'5 or under. They can just run you out of the gym even if you have Tatum and Brown. Pretty wild this happened in a playoff scenario.

Harden game changing shot came on switch to Horford. Harris got an important layup on Horford who could not catch up to him.

This draft has a lot of big combo guys - got find one of these guys to draft because one is going to hit. I personally like NSJ, but there is also George and Bufkin that can make an impact.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Watching that Philly upset of Boston, you had guards closing:

Maxey/Melton/Harden with Reed and Harris

Two of White/Brogdon/Smart with Brown, Tatum and Horford

The whole 6'9 idea is garbage against talented guards - 6'5 or under. They can just run you out of the gym even if you have Tatum and Brown. Pretty wild this happened in a playoff scenario.

Harden game changing shot came on switch to Horford. Harris got an important layup on Horford who could not catch up to him.

This draft has a lot of big combo guys - got find one of these guys to draft because one is going to hit. I personally like NSJ, but there is also George and Bufkin that can make an impact.

Don't draft a weak guard prospect just because 37 year old Al Horford can't hang with HOFer James Harden on the perimeter in one game

[Psubs]

Watching that Philly upset of Boston, you had guards closing:

Maxey/Melton/Harden with Reed and Harris

Two of White/Brogdon/Smart with Brown, Tatum and Horford

The whole 6'9 idea is garbage against talented guards - 6'5 or under. They can just run you out of the gym even if you have Tatum and Brown. Pretty wild this happened in a playoff scenario.

Harden game changing shot came on switch to Horford. Harris got an important layup on Horford who could not catch up to him.

This draft has a lot of big combo guys - got find one of these guys to draft because one is going to hit. I personally like NSJ, but there is also George and Bufkin that can make an impact.

Don't draft a weak guard prospect just because 37 year old Al Horford can't hang with HOFer James Harden on the perimeter in one game

This is why we have to keep OG.

[Yallbecrazy]

Watching that Philly upset of Boston, you had guards closing:

Maxey/Melton/Harden with Reed and Harris

Two of White/Brogdon/Smart with Brown, Tatum and Horford

The whole 6'9 idea is garbage against talented guards - 6'5 or under. They can just run you out of the gym even if you have Tatum and Brown. Pretty wild this happened in a playoff scenario.

Harden game changing shot came on switch to Horford. Harris got an important layup on Horford who could not catch up to him.

This draft has a lot of big combo guys - got find one of these guys to draft because one is going to hit. I personally like NSJ, but there is also George and Bufkin that can make an impact.

Don't draft a weak guard prospect just because 37 year old Al Horford can't hang with HOFer James Harden on the perimeter in one game

This exact thinking lead to Jalen Green and even Cade Cunningham going over Mobley because 'bigs are obsolete and not impactful'