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2023 Draft Discussion Part 4

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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part 4 

Post#461 » by WuTang_CMB » Tue May 2, 2023 1:13 pm

So where does that leave the 2023 class? Right now, I have Victor Wembanyama in his own tier at No. 1. The next tier would come from No. 2 down to No. 5. Then, another tier from No. 6 to No. 12. The next group goes from No. 13 to No. 22, and those are the players I feel very confident will hear their names called in the first round right now. After that, it’s a free-for-all from No. 23 down to about No. 42, with all of those players having a very realistic chance to play their way into a first-round pick or slide out and have to answer real questions about whether they stay in this draft class.

The back half of the first round is one that is intensely up for debate among scouts in front offices. The beauty is truly in the eye of the beholder among a lot of these players, and there are polarizing takes on some of the higher upside players, just as there are on some of the older, more experienced guys. Teams see so many players as candidates for those slots right now that I don’t think you can really be wrong in any opinion you have.

Here is where my board stands now.


1Victor Wembanyama

2Scoot Henderson

3Brandon Miller

4Amen Thompson

5Cam Whitmore

6Taylor Hendricks

7Ausar Thompson

8Anthony Black

9Jarace Walker

10Cason Wallace

11Kobe Bufkin

12Gradey Dick

13Leonard Miller

14Dereck Lively Jr.

15Brice Sensabaugh

16Jalen Hood-Schifino

17Jordan Hawkins

18Keyonte George

19Nick Smith Jr.

20Kris Murray

21Dariq Whitehead

22G.G. Jackson

23Bobi Klintman

24Bilal Coulibaly

25Sidy Cissoko

26Rayan Rupert

27Jett Howard

28Colby Jones

29Noah Clowney

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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part 4 

Post#462 » by HumbleRen » Tue May 2, 2023 1:18 pm

WuTang_OG wrote:
So where does that leave the 2023 class? Right now, I have Victor Wembanyama in his own tier at No. 1. The next tier would come from No. 2 down to No. 5. Then, another tier from No. 6 to No. 12. The next group goes from No. 13 to No. 22, and those are the players I feel very confident will hear their names called in the first round right now. After that, it’s a free-for-all from No. 23 down to about No. 42, with all of those players having a very realistic chance to play their way into a first-round pick or slide out and have to answer real questions about whether they stay in this draft class.

The back half of the first round is one that is intensely up for debate among scouts in front offices. The beauty is truly in the eye of the beholder among a lot of these players, and there are polarizing takes on some of the higher upside players, just as there are on some of the older, more experienced guys. Teams see so many players as candidates for those slots right now that I don’t think you can really be wrong in any opinion you have.

Here is where my board stands now.


1Victor Wembanyama

2Scoot Henderson

3Brandon Miller

4Amen Thompson

5Cam Whitmore

6Taylor Hendricks

7Ausar Thompson

8Anthony Black

9Jarace Walker

10Cason Wallace

11Kobe Bufkin

12Gradey Dick

13Leonard Miller

14Dereck Lively Jr.

15Brice Sensabaugh

16Jalen Hood-Schifino

17Jordan Hawkins

18Keyonte George

19Nick Smith Jr.

20Kris Murray

21Dariq Whitehead

22G.G. Jackson

23Bobi Klintman

24Bilal Coulibaly

25Sidy Cissoko

26Rayan Rupert

27Jett Howard

28Colby Jones

29Noah Clowney



This would exactly be my top 12. Not in that order though.
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part 4 

Post#463 » by HumbleRen » Tue May 2, 2023 1:20 pm

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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part 4 

Post#464 » by ATLTimekeeper » Tue May 2, 2023 1:24 pm

Yallbecrazy wrote:Wallace was a lot better than NSJ on offense this past year.

Often highly hyped guys out of high school who disappoint in college don't do well in the NBA. I can't think of any off the top of my head that have actually succeeded.

High school hype is near worthless when evaluating a prospect who has far more relevant college experience to look at.

If you look at the top guys in the NBA that came from college they were all over the high school rankings and less than 20% of the guys ranked 5-20 in RSCI each year end up being even rotation guys in the NBA. Of those 20% I think nearly all of them were pretty good in college.

I get that NSJ may have been injured, but he was so bad that I can't see him being good in the NBA. People talk about his floater as if it's a weapon and while he uses it a lot, he's not actually good at it. He was less than 40% on it, many guys in the NBA don't use the floater because only a few are actually good at it since it's such a difficult shot. NSJ's reliance on it shows a negative bbiq since he's actually bad at it.


Has anyone looked into top 5 RSCI with poor freshman performance and then draft success? When I see Cam Reddish-like results, I think that player will probably suck.
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part 4 

Post#465 » by OakleyDokely » Tue May 2, 2023 1:25 pm

WuTang_OG wrote:
So where does that leave the 2023 class? Right now, I have Victor Wembanyama in his own tier at No. 1. The next tier would come from No. 2 down to No. 5. Then, another tier from No. 6 to No. 12. The next group goes from No. 13 to No. 22, and those are the players I feel very confident will hear their names called in the first round right now. After that, it’s a free-for-all from No. 23 down to about No. 42, with all of those players having a very realistic chance to play their way into a first-round pick or slide out and have to answer real questions about whether they stay in this draft class.

The back half of the first round is one that is intensely up for debate among scouts in front offices. The beauty is truly in the eye of the beholder among a lot of these players, and there are polarizing takes on some of the higher upside players, just as there are on some of the older, more experienced guys. Teams see so many players as candidates for those slots right now that I don’t think you can really be wrong in any opinion you have.

Here is where my board stands now.


1Victor Wembanyama

2Scoot Henderson

3Brandon Miller

4Amen Thompson

5Cam Whitmore

6Taylor Hendricks

7Ausar Thompson

8Anthony Black

9Jarace Walker

10Cason Wallace

11Kobe Bufkin

12Gradey Dick

13Leonard Miller

14Dereck Lively Jr.

15Brice Sensabaugh

16Jalen Hood-Schifino

17Jordan Hawkins

18Keyonte George

19Nick Smith Jr.

20Kris Murray

21Dariq Whitehead

22G.G. Jackson

23Bobi Klintman

24Bilal Coulibaly

25Sidy Cissoko

26Rayan Rupert

27Jett Howard

28Colby Jones

29Noah Clowney



Lots of parity in this draft. I wouldn't be surprised if Jones and Clowney ranked #28 and #29 on this list become better NBAers than most of the projected lottery picks.

I think this a prime trade down draft for multiple picks. I don't see much difference in quality between the vast majority of these top 25-30 guys other than the obvious guys at the very top of the draft.
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part 4 

Post#466 » by WuTang_CMB » Tue May 2, 2023 1:42 pm

Hawkins and Cidy too low for me
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part 4 

Post#467 » by Rapsfan07 » Tue May 2, 2023 2:05 pm

OakleyDokely wrote:
WuTang_OG wrote:
So where does that leave the 2023 class? Right now, I have Victor Wembanyama in his own tier at No. 1. The next tier would come from No. 2 down to No. 5. Then, another tier from No. 6 to No. 12. The next group goes from No. 13 to No. 22, and those are the players I feel very confident will hear their names called in the first round right now. After that, it’s a free-for-all from No. 23 down to about No. 42, with all of those players having a very realistic chance to play their way into a first-round pick or slide out and have to answer real questions about whether they stay in this draft class.

The back half of the first round is one that is intensely up for debate among scouts in front offices. The beauty is truly in the eye of the beholder among a lot of these players, and there are polarizing takes on some of the higher upside players, just as there are on some of the older, more experienced guys. Teams see so many players as candidates for those slots right now that I don’t think you can really be wrong in any opinion you have.

Here is where my board stands now.


1Victor Wembanyama

2Scoot Henderson

3Brandon Miller

4Amen Thompson

5Cam Whitmore

6Taylor Hendricks

7Ausar Thompson

8Anthony Black

9Jarace Walker

10Cason Wallace

11Kobe Bufkin

12Gradey Dick

13Leonard Miller

14Dereck Lively Jr.

15Brice Sensabaugh

16Jalen Hood-Schifino

17Jordan Hawkins

18Keyonte George

19Nick Smith Jr.

20Kris Murray

21Dariq Whitehead

22G.G. Jackson

23Bobi Klintman

24Bilal Coulibaly

25Sidy Cissoko

26Rayan Rupert

27Jett Howard

28Colby Jones

29Noah Clowney



Lots of parity in this draft. I wouldn't be surprised if Jones and Clowney ranked #28 and #29 on this list become better NBAers than most of the projected lottery picks.

I think this a prime trade down draft for multiple picks. I don't see much difference in quality between the vast majority of these top 25-30 guys other than the obvious guys at the very top of the draft.


I couldn't agree more. Moving down here could be huge for replenishing the cupboard of young quality talent on this team, obviously depending on who's on the board. Nevermind acquiring another pick.

But walking away with two of Bufkin, Cissoko, Jones, Coulibaly or Podz? Insane.
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part 4 

Post#468 » by Psubs » Tue May 2, 2023 2:30 pm

Is BK the main target here with #21 and #22 for #13.

I feel like there biggest need is at PG. They can groom one until they are ready to usurp Dinwiddie and Mills. They will probably target Cason Wallace or Nick Smith Jr.

Possibly the full trade is #13, Malachi Flynn and Otto Porter for #21, #22 and Patty Mills?

PG Dinwiddie - #13/Flynn
SG Mikal - Thomas/Harris
SF Cameron - DFS - Harris
PF Simmons? - Otto/Cameron
C Claxton - Sharpe
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part 4 

Post#469 » by Rapsfan07 » Tue May 2, 2023 2:43 pm

Psubs wrote:Is BK the main target here with #21 and #22 for #13.

I feel like there biggest need is at PG. They can groom one until they are ready to usurp Dinwiddie and Mills. They will probably target Cason Wallace or Nick Smith Jr.

Possibly the full trade is #13, Malachi Flynn and Otto Porter for #21, #22 and Patty Mills?

PG Dinwiddie - #13/Flynn
SG Mikal - Thomas/Harris
SF Cameron - DFS - Harris
PF Simmons? - Otto/Cameron
C Claxton - Sharpe


I would probably think so. I'd avoid swapping any salary if possible. I like Porter Jr as a reliable vet and contributor off the bench, especially if we draft a Coulibaly and end up moving off OG for whatever reason.

Also because I think Flynn's salary could be better used in another deal where it's necessary as opposed to this one.

But yeah - #13 for #21 & #22 is something I think you HAVE to consider if Wallace and Hendricks are not there at #13, which I highly doubt they will be.
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part 4 

Post#470 » by ATLTimekeeper » Tue May 2, 2023 2:55 pm

Spates wrote:Gotcha, gotcha. When Terq looks amazing out there I'm coming to you with a **** grin.

165 tho... He's a paper weight lol.


Players like Terq are good for getting off to hot starts and then washing out. Legit talent, but maybe too many questions and not enough production:

Often when an NCAA player is a star after the top 10 picks there's some similar complaints pre-draft. Here's some quotes.

Jimmy Butler:
Not a great athlete... Lacks great quickness or explosiveness... A bit of a tweener?

Draymond Green:
“Isn't quick or athletic … Too small to play power forward ... Too slow to defend small forwards.”

Middleton:
Middleton's first step off the dribble is not very impressive and he rarely gets past his man in isolation situations

there are questions if he will can maintain similar success against the bigger, more athletic opponents he'll face on nearly every possession

Devin Booker:
Booker’s speed and athleticism is merely average. Though he is not poor, he isn’t gonna blow by anyone and will struggle to contain quicker players at the NBA level.

Sabonis:
Sabonis lacks both exciting athleticism and length. He doesn't bounce off the floor high, while his 6'10 ½" wingspan is unusually short for an interior-oriented player.

Brogdon:
Brodgon lacks a degree of shiftiness and explosiveness, making it difficult for him to turn the corner at times already at the college level.

An average athlete by NBA standards, the Greater Atlanta Christian product makes the most of his physical tools by playing with tremendous intensity

Fred VanVleet:
He isn't a great athlete either, as he doesn't possess a high top speed or a quick burst

SGA:
Gilgeous-Alexander doesn't blow by defenses.

Without the speed, athleticism or reliable three-ball, Gilgeous-Alexander projects as more of a role player than a star. He could start one day if given enough support, but low-end starter, like Payton, is his likeliest ceiling. Gilgeous-Alexander checks boxes for a guard—he just doesn't own any.
:lol: Wasserman.
Brunson:
is just an average athlete overall and won't blow anyone away with his quickness or explosiveness, even at the college level, and not certainly not the NBA.

Herro:
He lacks blow-by burst and explosiveness around the basket, where he shot just 49.0 percent.

Haliburton:
He's No. 10 for me because of concerns about his scoring potential since he doesn't have blow-by speed

Bane:
Not lengthy, with a wingspan of only 6 feet, 4 inches
Doesn’t have great athleticism; lacks blazing speed and an explosive first step
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part 4 

Post#471 » by OakleyDokely » Tue May 2, 2023 2:57 pm

Psubs wrote:Is BK the main target here with #21 and #22 for #13.

I feel like there biggest need is at PG. They can groom one until they are ready to usurp Dinwiddie and Mills. They will probably target Cason Wallace or Nick Smith Jr.

Possibly the full trade is #13, Malachi Flynn and Otto Porter for #21, #22 and Patty Mills?

PG Dinwiddie - #13/Flynn
SG Mikal - Thomas/Harris
SF Cameron - DFS - Harris
PF Simmons? - Otto/Cameron
C Claxton - Sharpe


These are teams that have multiple picks lower than us:

BRK: 21/22
UTA: 16/28
IND: 26/29/33
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part 4 

Post#472 » by Mark_83 » Tue May 2, 2023 3:16 pm

I was really high on Sensabaugh earlier in the season because of his efficiency and three-level scoring potential, but moved off a bit because of his defense.

I'm slowly getting back on the bandwagon now because depending on his length I think you can hide him at the 4 or 5 cause he's built like a tank.
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part 4 

Post#473 » by Psubs » Tue May 2, 2023 3:17 pm

Rapsfan07 wrote:
Psubs wrote:Is BK the main target here with #21 and #22 for #13.

I feel like there biggest need is at PG. They can groom one until they are ready to usurp Dinwiddie and Mills. They will probably target Cason Wallace or Nick Smith Jr.

Possibly the full trade is #13, Malachi Flynn and Otto Porter for #21, #22 and Patty Mills?

PG Dinwiddie - #13/Flynn
SG Mikal - Thomas/Harris
SF Cameron - DFS - Harris
PF Simmons? - Otto/Cameron
C Claxton - Sharpe


I would probably think so. I'd avoid swapping any salary if possible. I like Porter Jr as a reliable vet and contributor off the bench, especially if we draft a Coulibaly and end up moving off OG for whatever reason.

Also because I think Flynn's salary could be better used in another deal where it's necessary as opposed to this one.

But yeah - #13 for #21 & #22 is something I think you HAVE to consider if Wallace and Hendricks are not there at #13, which I highly doubt they will be.


Actually Mills is making $6.8 million, I think I saw $8.8 since on Hoopshype it was listed higher than Cameron Johnson's qualifying offer. A team like Charlotte (let Oubre walk should offer Cameron Johnson the rookie max and force Brooklyn to match it.

#13 for #21, #22

OakleyDokely wrote:
These are teams that have multiple picks lower than us:

BRK: 21/22
UTA: 16/28
IND: 26/29/33


Do you think Utah would give up #28 to move up 3 spots to nab Cason or Smith?

I don't really want to move all the way back to #26 and #29. I doubt Cissoko and Coulibaly are both still there. I guess Podz might be.

Utah does REALLY need a PG, but it's Ainge. :roll:
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part 4 

Post#474 » by OakleyDokely » Tue May 2, 2023 3:19 pm

Psubs wrote:
Rapsfan07 wrote:
Psubs wrote:Is BK the main target here with #21 and #22 for #13.

I feel like there biggest need is at PG. They can groom one until they are ready to usurp Dinwiddie and Mills. They will probably target Cason Wallace or Nick Smith Jr.

Possibly the full trade is #13, Malachi Flynn and Otto Porter for #21, #22 and Patty Mills?

PG Dinwiddie - #13/Flynn
SG Mikal - Thomas/Harris
SF Cameron - DFS - Harris
PF Simmons? - Otto/Cameron
C Claxton - Sharpe


I would probably think so. I'd avoid swapping any salary if possible. I like Porter Jr as a reliable vet and contributor off the bench, especially if we draft a Coulibaly and end up moving off OG for whatever reason.

Also because I think Flynn's salary could be better used in another deal where it's necessary as opposed to this one.

But yeah - #13 for #21 & #22 is something I think you HAVE to consider if Wallace and Hendricks are not there at #13, which I highly doubt they will be.


Actually Mills is making $6.8 million, I think I saw $8.8 since on Hoopshype it was listed higher than Cameron Johnson's qualifying offer. A team like Charlotte (let Oubre walk should offer Cameron Johnson the rookie max and force Brooklyn to match it.

#13 for #21, #22

OakleyDokely wrote:
These are teams that have multiple picks lower than us:

BRK: 21/22
UTA: 16/28
IND: 26/29/33


Do you think Utah would give up #28 to move up 3 spots to nab Cason or Smith?

I don't really want to move all the way back to #26 and #29. I doubt Cissoko and Coulibaly are both still there. I guess Podz might be.

Utah does REALLY need a PG, but it's Ainge. :roll:


Aingle is going to ask for #13...and Barnes for #16/28.

I don't think Masai has ever traded up or down (can't remember his time in DEN clearly though) so it's probably likely we stay put.
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part 4 

Post#475 » by Yallbecrazy » Tue May 2, 2023 3:20 pm

OakleyDokely wrote:
Psubs wrote:Is BK the main target here with #21 and #22 for #13.

I feel like there biggest need is at PG. They can groom one until they are ready to usurp Dinwiddie and Mills. They will probably target Cason Wallace or Nick Smith Jr.

Possibly the full trade is #13, Malachi Flynn and Otto Porter for #21, #22 and Patty Mills?

PG Dinwiddie - #13/Flynn
SG Mikal - Thomas/Harris
SF Cameron - DFS - Harris
PF Simmons? - Otto/Cameron
C Claxton - Sharpe


These are teams that have multiple picks lower than us:

BRK: 21/22
UTA: 16/28
IND: 26/29/33


I wouldn't do the Indy trade.

If Wallace isn't there and neither is Dick I would trade down to Brooklyn and hope to get Cissoko/Podz with a fall back of Bufkin/Leonard Miller or even Coulibaly if they are all gone.

16 and 28 lets you get Cissoko and possibly Podz, but probably not. Leonard Miller and Coulibaly will probably be available @28.
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part 4 

Post#476 » by ATLTimekeeper » Tue May 2, 2023 3:23 pm

I'm firmly in the camp that trading down isn't worth the risk. Just trade a future protected FRP or a redundant player to get another first. The reality is these players depreciate off the lot, and even the better drafters make mistakes.

Just get the guy you like, even if it means reaching. Moving back is just lowering your selection pool while relying on intel to hope that player you would like to draft is still there.
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part 4 

Post#477 » by ConSarnit » Tue May 2, 2023 3:25 pm

ATLTimekeeper wrote:
Yallbecrazy wrote:Wallace was a lot better than NSJ on offense this past year.

Often highly hyped guys out of high school who disappoint in college don't do well in the NBA. I can't think of any off the top of my head that have actually succeeded.

High school hype is near worthless when evaluating a prospect who has far more relevant college experience to look at.

If you look at the top guys in the NBA that came from college they were all over the high school rankings and less than 20% of the guys ranked 5-20 in RSCI each year end up being even rotation guys in the NBA. Of those 20% I think nearly all of them were pretty good in college.

I get that NSJ may have been injured, but he was so bad that I can't see him being good in the NBA. People talk about his floater as if it's a weapon and while he uses it a lot, he's not actually good at it. He was less than 40% on it, many guys in the NBA don't use the floater because only a few are actually good at it since it's such a difficult shot. NSJ's reliance on it shows a negative bbiq since he's actually bad at it.


Has anyone looked into top 5 RSCI with poor freshman performance and then draft success? When I see Cam Reddish-like results, I think that player will probably suck.


Only guy I can think of is Michael Porter Jr and he was a pretty specific case where injury was a huge factor. NSJ was dealing with a mysterious knee injury (haven't seen a single report on what the actual issue was) but he did play and he was pretty bad, which is almost always a terrible sign for a top 5 RSCI guy.
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part 4 

Post#478 » by OakleyDokely » Tue May 2, 2023 3:26 pm

Masai could also trade up if he really likes a player. OG + 13 could probably get you really high if you like a certain guy beyond Wemby.
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part 4 

Post#479 » by ATLTimekeeper » Tue May 2, 2023 3:31 pm

ConSarnit wrote:
ATLTimekeeper wrote:
Yallbecrazy wrote:Wallace was a lot better than NSJ on offense this past year.

Often highly hyped guys out of high school who disappoint in college don't do well in the NBA. I can't think of any off the top of my head that have actually succeeded.

High school hype is near worthless when evaluating a prospect who has far more relevant college experience to look at.

If you look at the top guys in the NBA that came from college they were all over the high school rankings and less than 20% of the guys ranked 5-20 in RSCI each year end up being even rotation guys in the NBA. Of those 20% I think nearly all of them were pretty good in college.

I get that NSJ may have been injured, but he was so bad that I can't see him being good in the NBA. People talk about his floater as if it's a weapon and while he uses it a lot, he's not actually good at it. He was less than 40% on it, many guys in the NBA don't use the floater because only a few are actually good at it since it's such a difficult shot. NSJ's reliance on it shows a negative bbiq since he's actually bad at it.


Has anyone looked into top 5 RSCI with poor freshman performance and then draft success? When I see Cam Reddish-like results, I think that player will probably suck.


Only guy I can think of is Michael Porter Jr and he was a pretty specific case where injury was a huge factor. NSJ was dealing with a mysterious knee injury (haven't seen a single report on what the actual issue was) but he did play and he was pretty bad, which is almost always a terrible sign for a top 5 RSCI guy.


Porter played 3 games. I think Garland played 4. I don't really consider these the same. Smith played 17, also not a great sample. I would still bias against RSCI.
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part 4 

Post#480 » by OakleyDokely » Tue May 2, 2023 3:37 pm

Nick Smith Jr:

Before Injury (5 games): .389 FG / .300 3PT / .842 FT
Post Injury (12 games): .372 FG / .353 3PT / .677 FT
Entire Season (17 games): .376 FG / .338 3PT / .740 FT

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