2025 NBA Draft Discussion Part 9

[S.W.A.N]

Highest potential at 9 is going to be Queen unless someone else takes him before us. Then I'd be okay with any of the remaining players.

Flagg, Harper, Edgecombe, Bailey, Johnson, Fears, Knueppel, Maluach, and Queen.

He's kind of becoming the obvious choice there. In terms of self creation he looks like he'll have what we need but it'll mean our defense will struggle to ever be top 5 in the league.

Not even close. Queen is not close to obvious for any team. his range goes from like 6 to 16. Fears is another guy who has a huge range as well as. Rest of your list is solid, but I bet two of CMB, Bryant, Noa go before Queen

Queen and Wizards are a really good fit. Sarr is mobile and can help block shots. Queen can play some post-D and be a creator + draw attention on O, freeing up their other players who are worse shot creators. Wizards fans also like Queen..just gotta get their organization to buy into this vision and take him at 6.

Ya, they have options there. Sarr can play the 4 and the 5 so they could go a number of ways. That home town boy vibe will be hard for the owners to ignore. I think if they are smart they say hell no. They should be all over Kon.

[RoteSchroder]

More often that not, I'd be happy to get my faves: Bane, Walker Kessler, Jalen Johnson, Franz Wagner, Christian Braun, Mobley, Nikola Jovic, Cason Wallace, Bub Carrington, Jaylin Williams,

Some were misses: Cassius Stanley, Sidy Cissoko

This will be a fun thread to return to in a few years. Unfortunately some posters will have created new accounts to wipe their record. Right or wrong I've been owning my bad takes since 2008.

There's nothing wrong with bad takes or liking potential busts. The problem is more so how ppl respond to criticism of the player they stan for.

E.g. Say a poster gloats about how CB has great perimeter defense by pointing out his amazing lateral quickness, as his lane agility is better than VJ's.

After realizing that CB's lane agility isn't actually that great - it's just that VJ's lane agility is bad - said user starts forming an argument about how lane agility doesn't even matter.

That seems very two-faced: using a parameter to compliment a player, but when realizing he was actually bad at this parameter, they start arguing about how this parameter doesn't mean anything. That tells me a person isn't into player evaluation, but rather player promotion.

On the other hand, I like Essengue at 9 for example..but the guy is practically a blank slate. He has a low floor making him a larger risk, narrow shoulders which isn't great for defensive strength (see Gradey Dick), iffy shot, not a half-court shot creator, and is 2 years away from 2 years away. I'm not gonna start going nuts and make up lies when someone comments how bad he is at certain aspects of the game.

I can also be moved off of Essengue if someone provides a good evaluation and vice versa with Queen/CB. I would say this approach is a lot wiser than just being a stan for no reason.

[Mark_83]

lol. The irony.

[Mark_83]

E.g. Say a poster gloats about how CB has great perimeter defense by pointing out his amazing lateral quickness, as his lane agility is better than VJ's.

After realizing that CB's lane agility isn't actually that great - it's just that VJ's lane agility is bad - said user starts forming an argument about how lane agility doesn't even matter.

That seems very two-faced: using a parameter to compliment a player, but when realizing he was actually bad at this parameter, they start arguing about how this parameter doesn't mean anything. That tells me a person isn't into player evaluation, but rather player promotion.

Those were literally two different people. One poster used lane agility stats as part of their argument. Then a completely different poster (me) showed that combine lane agility tests are non-predictive. Nobody went back on anything. Talk about revisionist history.

[Mark_83]

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?s=46

The lack of self creation for Bryant is concerning

From the substack article:







Carter Bryant is a wing, for whom, as the article itself admits, assisted% is not nearly as important as it is for guards and bigs.

Also, I would be more concerned about his high assisted% if his actual usage rate (16.4%) and shot volume were not lower than everyone on the lists he compiled.

Bryant only took 4.8 shots a game, 2.8 of which were threes which as the analysis also shows, has very little predictive value using the assisted/unassisted% parameters. So that means we're talking about a sample size of 2 shots a game (71 total). Trying to extrapolate future outcomes from such a small sample seems statistically specious.

[bboyskinnylegs]

Watch on YouTube

[Yallbecrazy]

Read on Twitter

?s=46

The lack of self creation for Bryant is concerning

From the substack article:







Carter Bryant is a wing, for whom, as the article itself admits, assisted% is not nearly as important as it is for guards and bigs.

Also, I would be more concerned about his high assisted% if his actual usage rate (16.4%) and shot volume were not lower than everyone on the lists he compiled.

Bryant only took 4.8 shots a game, 2.8 of which were threes which as the analysis also shows, has very little predictive value using the assisted/unassisted% parameters. So that means we're talking about a sample size of 2 shots a game (71 total). Trying to extrapolate future outcomes from such a small sample seems statistically specious.

The same article says it's extremely concerning to not be able to create for yourself at all and showed guys with a 60%+ assisted fg under 6'9. Carter Bryant had 78%.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Bryant was the 7th man on an average college team. He wasn't on like a stacked Calipari team. This dude should not be taken with a lottery pick, even if you think he's an NBA player.

[WuTang_CMB]

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2025-nba-mock-draft-jeremiah-fears-moves-up-to-no-6-derik-queen-jumps-into-top-10/

[KillaSham23]

Bryant was the 7th man on an average college team. He wasn't on like a stacked Calipari team. This dude should not be taken with a lottery pick, even if you think he's an NBA player.

Agreed with there being too much Bryant hype. Yes you can see the potential but he needs a lot of developing. Take Jaku or someone who drops or trade with Atlanta for 13&22.

[Jerry Lucas]

It's not a set data filter, it's class dependent. So it's different if you are a Fr/Soph/Jr/Sr.

Every FRP Masai has made post-Bruno mistake (including both Koloko pick 33 and Mogbo pick 31 which I considered pseudo-FRPs as top 5 SRPs, so very early 2nds) is on the list retroactively, including OG.

This is because the creation of these queries in 2023 was aided by the pre-existing dataset of all 7 FRP selections Masai has made since the Bruno mistake in 2014, up until 2022 (Delon/Poeltl/Siakam/OG/Malachi/Scottie/Koloko).

Was wondering about Sorber, Fleming and Drake Powell, particularly, trading down.

Sorber, Fleming and Powell all are not Masai-type FRPs. I find it unfortunate in Sorber's case, because I personally really like him as a prospect.

Hey Jerry. In what ways was Koloko a Masai-type pick that Maluach isn't?

Maluach draft year (Fr):
AST%: 4.3
AST/TO: 0.7
USG: 16.8
STL%: 0.6

Koloko draft year (Jr):
AST%: 9.8
AST/TO: 0.9
USG: 20.6
STL%: 1.6

[Psubs]

This will be a fun thread to return to in a few years. Unfortunately some posters will have created new accounts to wipe the record. Right or wrong I've been owning my bad takes since 2008.

Kendall Brown!!!

I missed badly on JV, Poeltl, and Siakam embarrassingly. Like full on meltdown embarrassing. Remember that No Lillard guy? His entire identity was convincing us that Lillard would be a bust. He's probably still around albeit with a shiny new account.

Oh, I wanted Lillard so badly. Same for Dwyane Wade because he had 2 triple doubles and he had hops and a huge wingspan.

[Psubs]

Carter Bryant is a wing, for whom, as the article itself admits, assisted% is not nearly as important as it is for guards and bigs.

Also, I would be more concerned about his high assisted% if his actual usage rate (16.4%) and shot volume were not lower than everyone on the lists he compiled.

Bryant only took 4.8 shots a game, 2.8 of which were threes which as the analysis also shows, has very little predictive value using the assisted/unassisted% parameters. So that means we're talking about a sample size of 2 shots a game (71 total). Trying to extrapolate future outcomes from such a small sample seems statistically specious.

I would say that this is also applies to the critique of Rasheer Fleming, when they had 2 ball dominant guards. It's not like Florida's offense that shares the ball a lot with their bigs.

Look at Bam Adebayo averaging less than 1 assist per game at Kentucky, with an A/T of only 0.5. Rasheer was a 0 star recruit and late bloomer, 2 years behind Bam in development but looks like he has a chance to reach Bam's level plus his 3pt shot looking 5 years.

[OakleyDokely]

If you see higher end potential with a guy like Bryant or Essengue, even if the risk is higher, I don't mind reaching. Reaching for potential in the top 10 is something you should consider, especially if you don't find yourself that high in the draft often. If you want just a solid player you can plug into your rotation, you can probably trade down, grab a few more assets and take a safe player in the mid 1st. There are plenty of those type of guys in this draft.

[KillaSham23]

Malauch, Bryant and CMB are my do not drafts. I'm pretty good with anyone else.

[Clutch0z24]

Picking a player on potential rather than what the player can actually do and shown proof he could actually do it in games can lead to some very bad picks and cause you to pick a bust that sets your team back alot.....Not saying Carter Bryant will bust but i don't think he will have the impact alot of people here think....If his upside at his very best is OG.....We can all agree he prolly does not reach even OG level....And OG is not some all star guy....Great player but hes a high level role player in the NBA.....But he would also have to hit that peak which is also unlikely...

And if he does not hit that peak your looking at a Dorian Finney Smith type guy....Which sure can add to a team but at 9th pick....Id want a higher level of a player or hope for one at least...

[WuTang_CMB]

Watch on YouTube

[OakleyDokely]

Picking a player on potential rather than what the player can actually do and shown proof he could actually do it in games can lead to some very bad picks and cause you to pick a bust that sets your team back alot.....Not saying Carter Bryant will bust but i don't think he will have the impact alot of people here think....If his upside at his very best is OG.....We can all agree he prolly does not reach even OG level....And OG is not some all star guy....Great player but hes a high level role player in the NBA.....But he would also have to hit that peak which is also unlikely...

And if he does not hit that peak your looking at a Dorian Finney Smith type guy....Which sure can add to a team but at 9th pick....Id want a higher level of a player or hope for one at least...

The Raps select Suggs over Barnes then using this rational though. Suggs was the better and more accomplished college player.

[Basketball_Jones]

Honestly at 9 I wouldn’t overthink it too much. If you like someone like Bryant and did your homework it’s not much of a reach at that spot but it all depends on who’s available of course. You lose a lot of your ability to let players slide when you’re picking almost out of the top 10.

[Yallbecrazy]

Picking a player on potential rather than what the player can actually do and shown proof he could actually do it in games can lead to some very bad picks and cause you to pick a bust that sets your team back alot.....Not saying Carter Bryant will bust but i don't think he will have the impact alot of people here think....If his upside at his very best is OG.....We can all agree he prolly does not reach even OG level....And OG is not some all star guy....Great player but hes a high level role player in the NBA.....But he would also have to hit that peak which is also unlikely...

And if he does not hit that peak your looking at a Dorian Finney Smith type guy....Which sure can add to a team but at 9th pick....Id want a higher level of a player or hope for one at least...

The Raps select Suggs over Barnes then using this rational though. Suggs was the better and more accomplished college player.

The stats were close enough and when you factor in Suggs had the 4th highest obpm on a stacked team in a weak conference I don't think one can say with certainty that one player was better than the other in college.