2023 Draft Discussion Part 4

[OakleyDokely]

Picking for need based on the current roster is rarely a good idea, unless you're a contender who just needs to fill a specific role.

Just take the prospect who projects to be the best, even if that doesn't happen for a few years.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

I feel comfortable going to war with Sasser, kid is not going to back down from anyone like DeAndre Ayton

[grant101]

Ya'll still not talking about my adopted son enough

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NBA ready, NBA moves, NBA body and will step up in the clutch. If Masai took him at 13 I wouldn't even care.

I'm with you on Sasser. The kid's a winner and takes nothing off the table. That said, 13 is a little too high for me. I'd also want to see us move on from Flynn before bringing on Sasser. Sasser can contribute next year, but I'd be worried about Flynn stealing his minutes cause this org seems to still believe in his upside despite multiple chances.

There is no such thing has 'too high'; you like the prospect, you pick him. Remember, the mock drafts we see as fans online is not the same kind of mock that the actual teams have. We may think guys like Sasser are available in the second round, but professional scouts may have other ideas.

Good point. I just happen to think there are other players with higher upside than Sasser likely to be available (I'm a big fan, but maybe not to REJECTEDBYCLARK's level. Despite his obv strengths and defensive toughness, he's still an undersized combo guard that can be a little bit of a tough fit given his weak rebounding #s). IMO we need ceiling-raisers on this team, so I'd advocate for a little more risk taking at 13. Also, there are a few teams with multiple late 1st round picks. I'd advocate trying to secure one of these to pounce on some of the high-floor prospects I'm high on that have a good chance of being available at those spots (e.g. Sasser, Podz, DaRon, etc.)

[Kevin Willis]

who gets drafted first, Hendricks or Walker?

Hendricks because of his defense and he could possibly play SF.

[Dalek]

I'm at the point where all I am really concerned about is the Raptors walking out of the draft with Marcus Sasser as a part of the organization no matter when and how that happens. He solves so many issues that have plagued this team and fits like a glove. It would seem to be crazy to say he's as good as Maxey but when you factor in his defensive ability to make up for whatever Maxey does better offensively they are similar value players.

An elite deep shooter who can play on and off ball while not being a defensive liability? Sounds like what the doctor ordered for Toronto. Such an easy decision to make to replace Gary Bricks Jr. with this kid.

Ty Maxey is 2 months younger than Sasser so he is behind developmentally, but if you really believe the defense then maybe there is first round value. I just think college players are a lot smaller than in the NBA so the question is whether a 6'2 guard can guard more than 1s. You don't want another FVV type who is on the small side.

I do like Sasser's offball and secondary playmaking capability, but I think this team would measure Sasser against Dowtin Jr. who while older offers strong defense and scoring and is a couple inches taller.

[WuTang_CMB]

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[WuTang_CMB]

who gets drafted first, Hendricks or Walker?

Hendricks because of his defense and he could possibly play SF.

Better shooter too. I think Hendricks seperates himself after workouts and goes top 5

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

I'm at the point where all I am really concerned about is the Raptors walking out of the draft with Marcus Sasser as a part of the organization no matter when and how that happens. He solves so many issues that have plagued this team and fits like a glove. It would seem to be crazy to say he's as good as Maxey but when you factor in his defensive ability to make up for whatever Maxey does better offensively they are similar value players.

An elite deep shooter who can play on and off ball while not being a defensive liability? Sounds like what the doctor ordered for Toronto. Such an easy decision to make to replace Gary Bricks Jr. with this kid.

Ty Maxey is 2 months younger than Sasser so he is behind developmentally, but if you really believe the defense then maybe there is first round value. I just think college players are a lot smaller than in the NBA so the question is whether a 6'2 guard can guard more than 1s. You don't want another FVV type who is on the small side.

I do like Sasser's offball and secondary playmaking capability, but I think this team would measure Sasser against Dowtin Jr. who while older offers strong defense and scoring and is a couple inches taller.

You realize Sasser's college production cannot even be compared to Dowtin's because he was and is that much better of a player. Dowtin also maxed out in college while Sasser improved his game every single year leading up to the draft. It'll only take Masai 10 seconds to measure Dowtin against Sasser and realize Dowtin has nothing on him. Sasser's jumpshot is as sure a bet as any to translate to the pros and he can get to his spots and light you up as good as any player in the entire draft.

Let's add to that the fact that the degree of difficulty of a lot of Sasser's shots is very high. You use him just off ball and have him running around for catch and shoot 3's and there is a chance he will be nailing 42-43% of his 3 pointers in the NBA.

[PoundTown]

Picking for need based on the current roster is rarely a good idea, unless you're a contender who just needs to fill a specific role.

Just take the prospect who projects to be the best, even if that doesn't happen for a few years.

This, exactly this. However, it is hard to ignore digging a deeper hole. For example, if this year, we took a prospect that wasn't a 5 man and wasn't at least an average shooter, we are adding to our weakness - another player toolsy but doesn't shoot, however is thought to be the BPA. Somewhat of a dilemma still as you have plans for that first round pick to be in your rotation at some point in his first two years. And we're a team that wants to promote from within and not a FA destination, making fixing these problems we create for ourselves in the draft only accessible through trade.

But, I'm with you - we need talent over everything at this point. BPA when we pick no matter what position.

[Los_29]

There are some things to like about Sasser but for a 4 year college player to average 3.1 assists a game in his senior year is pretty concerning. Doesn't help that he's 6'1.

[Morse Code]

I was really high on Sensabaugh earlier in the season because of his efficiency and three-level scoring potential, but moved off a bit because of his defense.

I'm slowly getting back on the bandwagon now because depending on his length I think you can hide him at the 4 or 5 cause he's built like a tank.

Yeah a wing lineup of

Sg: OG
SF: Brice
PF: Scottie

Would be amazing balance and size. Shuffle positions as you like

[ArthurVandelay]

Gotcha, gotcha. When Terq looks amazing out there I'm coming to you with a **** grin.

165 tho... He's a paper weight lol.

Players like Terq are good for getting off to hot starts and then washing out. Legit talent, but maybe too many questions and not enough production:

Often when an NCAA player is a star after the top 10 picks there's some similar complaints pre-draft. Here's some quotes.

Jimmy Butler:

Not a great athlete... Lacks great quickness or explosiveness... A bit of a tweener?

Draymond Green:

“Isn't quick or athletic … Too small to play power forward ... Too slow to defend small forwards.”

Middleton:

Middleton's first step off the dribble is not very impressive and he rarely gets past his man in isolation situations

there are questions if he will can maintain similar success against the bigger, more athletic opponents he'll face on nearly every possession

Devin Booker:

Booker’s speed and athleticism is merely average. Though he is not poor, he isn’t gonna blow by anyone and will struggle to contain quicker players at the NBA level.

Sabonis:

Sabonis lacks both exciting athleticism and length. He doesn't bounce off the floor high, while his 6'10 ½" wingspan is unusually short for an interior-oriented player.

Brogdon:

Brodgon lacks a degree of shiftiness and explosiveness, making it difficult for him to turn the corner at times already at the college level.

An average athlete by NBA standards, the Greater Atlanta Christian product makes the most of his physical tools by playing with tremendous intensity

Fred VanVleet:

He isn't a great athlete either, as he doesn't possess a high top speed or a quick burst

SGA:

Gilgeous-Alexander doesn't blow by defenses.

Without the speed, athleticism or reliable three-ball, Gilgeous-Alexander projects as more of a role player than a star. He could start one day if given enough support, but low-end starter, like Payton, is his likeliest ceiling. Gilgeous-Alexander checks boxes for a guard—he just doesn't own any.

Wasserman.
Brunson:

is just an average athlete overall and won't blow anyone away with his quickness or explosiveness, even at the college level, and not certainly not the NBA.

Herro:

He lacks blow-by burst and explosiveness around the basket, where he shot just 49.0 percent.

Haliburton:

He's No. 10 for me because of concerns about his scoring potential since he doesn't have blow-by speed

Bane:

Not lengthy, with a wingspan of only 6 feet, 4 inches
Doesn’t have great athleticism; lacks blazing speed and an explosive first step

Great post. Hard to believe how some guys get passed over when their talent is right there, but we talk ourselves into potential against production, what is vs what could be.

I look at drafting as a three prong approach:
1. The eye test
2. Stats
3. Intangibles

The eye test is straight forward. The intangibles none of us on RealGM will ever have any clue. We can’t run background or interview and anyone who speaks on or off the record about a player has an agenda. We are limited to media interviews at best.

Stats are to back up the eye test in my opinion (or to weed prospects out).

This list piqued my curiosity so it was interesting to look at PER, DBPM, BPM, and WS/40. The lowest PER was 16.7 (Shari) and most 19+, DBPM was 2.2 (Middleton & Brunson) and most 3+, BPM 7.1 (Sabonis), and WS/40 .156 (Middleton).

Essentially they were all advanced stat darlings. Sometimes we make things more complicated than they have to be.

[Yallbecrazy]

Gotcha, gotcha. When Terq looks amazing out there I'm coming to you with a **** grin.

165 tho... He's a paper weight lol.

Players like Terq are good for getting off to hot starts and then washing out. Legit talent, but maybe too many questions and not enough production:

Often when an NCAA player is a star after the top 10 picks there's some similar complaints pre-draft. Here's some quotes.

Jimmy Butler:

Not a great athlete... Lacks great quickness or explosiveness... A bit of a tweener?

Draymond Green:

“Isn't quick or athletic … Too small to play power forward ... Too slow to defend small forwards.”

Middleton:

Middleton's first step off the dribble is not very impressive and he rarely gets past his man in isolation situations

there are questions if he will can maintain similar success against the bigger, more athletic opponents he'll face on nearly every possession

Devin Booker:

Booker’s speed and athleticism is merely average. Though he is not poor, he isn’t gonna blow by anyone and will struggle to contain quicker players at the NBA level.

Sabonis:

Sabonis lacks both exciting athleticism and length. He doesn't bounce off the floor high, while his 6'10 ½" wingspan is unusually short for an interior-oriented player.

Brogdon:

Brodgon lacks a degree of shiftiness and explosiveness, making it difficult for him to turn the corner at times already at the college level.

An average athlete by NBA standards, the Greater Atlanta Christian product makes the most of his physical tools by playing with tremendous intensity

Fred VanVleet:

He isn't a great athlete either, as he doesn't possess a high top speed or a quick burst

SGA:

Gilgeous-Alexander doesn't blow by defenses.

Without the speed, athleticism or reliable three-ball, Gilgeous-Alexander projects as more of a role player than a star. He could start one day if given enough support, but low-end starter, like Payton, is his likeliest ceiling. Gilgeous-Alexander checks boxes for a guard—he just doesn't own any.

Wasserman.
Brunson:

is just an average athlete overall and won't blow anyone away with his quickness or explosiveness, even at the college level, and not certainly not the NBA.

Herro:

He lacks blow-by burst and explosiveness around the basket, where he shot just 49.0 percent.

Haliburton:

He's No. 10 for me because of concerns about his scoring potential since he doesn't have blow-by speed

Bane:

Not lengthy, with a wingspan of only 6 feet, 4 inches
Doesn’t have great athleticism; lacks blazing speed and an explosive first step

Great post. Hard to believe how some guys get passed over when their talent is right there, but we talk ourselves into potential against production, what is vs what could be.

I look at drafting as a three prong approach:
1. The eye test
2. Stats
3. Intangibles

The eye test is straight forward. The intangibles none of us on RealGM will ever have any clue. We can’t run background or interview and anyone who speaks on or off the record about a player has an agenda. We are limited to media interviews at best.

Stats are to back up the eye test in my opinion (or to weed prospects out).

This list piqued my curiosity so it was interesting to look at PER, DBPM, BPM, and WS/40. The lowest PER was 16.7 (Shari) and most 19+, DBPM was 2.2 (Middleton & Brunson) and most 3+, BPM 7.1 (Sabonis), and WS/40 .156 (Middleton).

Essentially they were all advanced stat darlings. Sometimes we make things more complicated than they have to be.

I agree somewhat except the part where the stats should backup the eye test. I think the eye test backs up the stats.

[Dalek]

There are some things to like about Sasser but for a 4 year college player to average 3.1 assists a game in his senior year is pretty concerning. Doesn't help that he's 6'1.

I agree with your size concerns, but I will give him a pass on his assist numbers because he wasn't the primary PG from what I could see. Jamal Shead played more of the trad. point. Plus, you have Jarace Walker in his connective passer role that ate up possessions.

I just think he is a good spot-up shooter with deep range, but that type of pick is early second to me, especially given his age and the past surgery he had where he lost some time.

[Dalek]

Players like Terq are good for getting off to hot starts and then washing out. Legit talent, but maybe too many questions and not enough production:

Often when an NCAA player is a star after the top 10 picks there's some similar complaints pre-draft. Here's some quotes.

Jimmy Butler:
Draymond Green:
Middleton:

Devin Booker:
Sabonis:
Brogdon:

Fred VanVleet:
SGA:
Wasserman.
Brunson:
Herro:
Haliburton:
Bane:

Great post. Hard to believe how some guys get passed over when their talent is right there, but we talk ourselves into potential against production, what is vs what could be.

I look at drafting as a three prong approach:
1. The eye test
2. Stats
3. Intangibles

The eye test is straight forward. The intangibles none of us on RealGM will ever have any clue. We can’t run background or interview and anyone who speaks on or off the record about a player has an agenda. We are limited to media interviews at best.

Stats are to back up the eye test in my opinion (or to weed prospects out).

This list piqued my curiosity so it was interesting to look at PER, DBPM, BPM, and WS/40. The lowest PER was 16.7 (Shari) and most 19+, DBPM was 2.2 (Middleton & Brunson) and most 3+, BPM 7.1 (Sabonis), and WS/40 .156 (Middleton).

Essentially they were all advanced stat darlings. Sometimes we make things more complicated than they have to be.

I agree somewhat except the part where the stats should backup the eye test. I think the eye test backs up the stats.

I agree with eye test and stats, but you also have to factor in environmental factors to discount less than perfect stats.

Depending on the situation, you may not be able to see the true player especially if it is one and done playing with seniors (Keyonte George) or a weird system that stifles a player's game giving too little (Kentucky effect: Ty Maxey/Cason Wallace) or too much freedom (Crappy mid-major effect - Anthony Edwards/GG Jackson).

I also find that due to the smaller college players, often guys play out of position - I am pretty sure Jimmy Butler played a lot of PF at Marquette.

[Yallbecrazy]

Great post. Hard to believe how some guys get passed over when their talent is right there, but we talk ourselves into potential against production, what is vs what could be.

I look at drafting as a three prong approach:
1. The eye test
2. Stats
3. Intangibles

The eye test is straight forward. The intangibles none of us on RealGM will ever have any clue. We can’t run background or interview and anyone who speaks on or off the record about a player has an agenda. We are limited to media interviews at best.

Stats are to back up the eye test in my opinion (or to weed prospects out).

This list piqued my curiosity so it was interesting to look at PER, DBPM, BPM, and WS/40. The lowest PER was 16.7 (Shari) and most 19+, DBPM was 2.2 (Middleton & Brunson) and most 3+, BPM 7.1 (Sabonis), and WS/40 .156 (Middleton).

Essentially they were all advanced stat darlings. Sometimes we make things more complicated than they have to be.

I agree somewhat except the part where the stats should backup the eye test. I think the eye test backs up the stats.

I agree with eye test and stats, but you also have to factor in environmental factors to discount less than perfect stats.

Depending on the situation, you may not be able to see the true player especially if it is one and done playing with seniors (Keyonte George) or a weird system that stifles a player's game giving too little (Kentucky effect: Ty Maxey/Cason Wallace) or too much freedom (Crappy mid-major effect - Anthony Edwards/GG Jackson).

I also find that due to the smaller college players, often guys play out of position - I am pretty sure Jimmy Butler played a lot of PF at Marquette.

as long as you can explain it with an eye test. Barnes had poor dRB stats in college because he was actually the smallest player on the floor most of the time playing point guard.

I like to look for outlier stats without red flags. Hopefully the mediocre or red flags can be explained due to system.

To tie this into Sasser, there aren't any red flags, but there's not a lot to like either. He's a really good, but not great shooter. He competes, but doesn't have good rebounding numbers to backup that as being an ultra competitive guy who won't be denied despite his size. He's small and a good passer, but not an elite playmaker/ doesn't have an elite handle and given his age that doesn't bode well to becoming one. His defense is really good, but the competition wasn't great and he doesn't have outlier steals. Being a senior with his size I think his ceiling is more of a really good bench piece which is not a game changer.

[Mark_83]

Does anyone know where to get NCAA stats that disaggregate FG% and 3FG% by shots off the catch vs off the dribble vs shots at the rim?

[HumbleRen]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14SmNpZ5H2MQlDJpEfylByrokfGf7lePho72TfCdVojo/edit#gid=1264645504

spread sheet of mainly the first round picks

[Mark_83]

I was really high on Sensabaugh earlier in the season because of his efficiency and three-level scoring potential, but moved off a bit because of his defense.

I'm slowly getting back on the bandwagon now because depending on his length I think you can hide him at the 4 or 5 cause he's built like a tank.

Yeah a wing lineup of

Sg: OG
SF: Brice
PF: Scottie

Would be amazing balance and size. Shuffle positions as you like

I don't know if Brice can guard the wing position though tbh. PF seems the most realistic from my views. However, if a team thinks he can defend at any one of the positions at average or above he should be a top 10 pick imo. His efficiency + the multiple ways he can score (off the dribble, off the catch, in the post fading over either shoulder) has looked borderline elite all season. He's just a tough shot maker.

Re-added him to my follow list for pick 13. Wallace, Hendricks, George, Coulibaly, Sensabaugh, Cissoko, Lively.

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[Snowwy]

There are some things to like about Sasser but for a 4 year college player to average 3.1 assists a game in his senior year is pretty concerning. Doesn't help that he's 6'1.

Yes, he certainly doesn't look like a guy. Seems like he would be a wasted pick.