Tank World Order

[StopitLeo]

Anyone who thinks this record will continue over the course of the season and actually get us a top 5 pick - keeping in mind they have specifically flattened the odds to prevent tanking - would be terribly disappointed if we kept on the same course because we'll end up with the 10th-14th pick in the draft and these same people will then get upset when we don't get a perennial all-star at that slot.

As long as we are bottom 4 by the end of the year, we will have an equal chance (14%) to land the 1st overall pick. If we are bottom 2, the worst pick we can get is the 6th pick. And if we are the worst team, we are guaranteed a top 5 pick.

So at best we have a 14% chance of getting the 1st overall who historically has less than a 50% likelihood of becoming the MVP level player needed to be a contender. More likely is a pick who might become an All-Star if everything goes right.

[yodamaster]

we are the san antonio north, might as well tank like thes spurs did for number 1 pick... no tim duncans, but not a bad draft next year.

[Skeezo]

Anyone who thinks this record will continue over the course of the season and actually get us a top 5 pick - keeping in mind they have specifically flattened the odds to prevent tanking - would be terribly disappointed if we kept on the same course because we'll end up with the 10th-14th pick in the draft and these same people will then get upset when we don't get a perennial all-star at that slot.

May I ask do you value First Round Picks at all to begin with? The reason I ask is you're the OP of a trending post where you suggest giving away Three 1st Round Picks and Two First Round Pick Swaps for Vucevic. At a time when Big Men are valued less than ever, and most decent Centers can be had for an MLE, you seem to be willing to hand out a lot of picks for one. Some people/teams don't value First Round picks, and if you are in a glamour or no-tax market like Los Angeles, Miami, or Dallas that can attract Top Free Agents, I can understand the reasoning. However, Toronto has yet to attain that type favourability.

As a result, I've said it, and I'll keep saying it...

DeRozan #9 pick
Valanciunas #5 pick
Ross #8 pick
Poeltl #9 pick
Adams #12 pick (Traded for Lowry)

Not Superstars... Not Top 3 Tanking Picks... But all very good players who were picked by US in the LOTTERY that were ultimately traded to get us Lowry, Leonard, Ibaka, and Gasol that formed our Championship core. At the end of the day, unless you're consistently dealing your own players at the correct time to gain future high-end draft picks, it's inevitable a team will have to return to the lottery to inject younger higher ceiling talent onto their roster.

[Hero]

Anyone who thinks this record will continue over the course of the season and actually get us a top 5 pick - keeping in mind they have specifically flattened the odds to prevent tanking - would be terribly disappointed if we kept on the same course because we'll end up with the 10th-14th pick in the draft and these same people will then get upset when we don't get a perennial all-star at that slot.

As long as we are bottom 4 by the end of the year, we will have an equal chance (14%) to land the 1st overall pick. If we are bottom 2, the worst pick we can get is the 6th pick. And if we are the worst team, we are guaranteed a top 5 pick.

So at best we have a 14% chance of getting the 1st overall who historically has less than a 50% likelihood of becoming the MVP level player needed to be a contender. More likely is a pick who might become an All-Star if everything goes right.

What do you make of the Celtics rebuild and how well their #3 picks are doing now?

[Supermann98]

I'm all aboard. This year is over already

[StopitLeo]

So at best we have a 14% chance of getting the 1st overall who historically has less than a 50% likelihood of becoming the MVP level player needed to be a contender. More likely is a pick who might become an All-Star if everything goes right.

What do you make of the Celtics rebuild and how well their #3 picks are doing now?

Their rebuild was based on Billy King’s idiocy, not tanking. They missed the playoffs one year and then drafted Marcus Smart, not exactly a franchise changing player.

Neither of those #3 picks were their own. They also haven’t made a Finals, even with trading for Kyrie and signing Hayward.

So how are they doing now? They’re a good but not great team hoping that Tatum becomes an MVP level player. But none of that is from tanking.

[MixxSRC]

Everybody understands the odds of lottery. It's still a risk Raps have to take. Trust in their developmental team and scouting team.

[fedade]

I don't mind if we tank this season. It's not like we are going anywhere with this roster, and the next year's FA market is not that great. Tank this year, get a real talent, and develop the players. Then, we can do something from there whether it is trade or signing FA.

[MavCarter]

Ran the simulator 10 times this morning and we dropped to 5/6 every single time but once. Memories of the good old BC days are coming back

[Pooh_Jeter]

The top 5 prospects are all intriguing right now and once the draft gets closer there will definitely be some more movement towards the top. This isn't a case of being screwed if you don't get the #1 pick. Ideally trading some vets gets you at least one more first rounder so you have an extra kick at the can later in the draft.

The counter argument is non existent. Of course nothing is guaranteed, but this path involves gathering as many assets as you can so the risks are mitigated to a large degree. The only real question is if you can get it done in 1-2 years or 3-4 years.

This "winning culture" and maintaining status quo for a team that is clearly not good enough to do anything substantial is ludicrous. The only thing you are doing at this point is making a rebuild even more painful.

[Kingsway_fan]

Paramount we get a top 5 pick this year....

[Chandan]

Can we bring back "Tank Nation" ?

[VanWest82]

My body is ready and willing to embrace this when the time comes. I'd still prefer we reel off ten wins in a row, win a playoff round, and salvage Lowry's last season as a Raptor. But if not, let's sell off, shut guys down, and tank our way into the top 10.

[Chandan]

My body is ready and willing to embrace this when the time comes. I'd still prefer we reel off ten wins in a row, win a playoff round, and salvage Lowry's last season as a Raptor. But if not, let's sell off, shut guys down, and tank our way into the top 10.

you gotta admit the optimism behind this tank is exhilarating.

[VanWest82]

My body is ready and willing to embrace this when the time comes. I'd still prefer we reel off ten wins in a row, win a playoff round, and salvage Lowry's last season as a Raptor. But if not, let's sell off, shut guys down, and tank our way into the top 10.

you gotta admit the optimism behind this tank is exhilarating.

It's still a little premature imo but it's off to a promising start. Bringing in Bayneslen as tank commanders is proving to be an underrated move. I knew those guys were stiffs. I didn't know they were actual tank moles planted by our front office.

[wayoftheroad]

TWO for life

[Mehar]

I hope Lowry is traded in the near future, even Powell. Get the tank really started. This is a great year to "tank" given the deep draft coming up. This team will have cap space, has all its first round picks the next several years, and so it is a perfect time to regroup.

[Metallikid]

Anyone who thinks this record will continue over the course of the season and actually get us a top 5 pick - keeping in mind they have specifically flattened the odds to prevent tanking - would be terribly disappointed if we kept on the same course because we'll end up with the 10th-14th pick in the draft and these same people will then get upset when we don't get a perennial all-star at that slot.

May I ask do you value First Round Picks at all to begin with? The reason I ask is you're the OP of a trending post where you suggest giving away Three 1st Round Picks and Two First Round Pick Swaps for Vucevic. At a time when Big Men are valued less than ever, and most decent Centers can be had for an MLE, you seem to be willing to hand out a lot of picks for one. Some people/teams don't value First Round picks, and if you are in a glamour or no-tax market like Los Angeles, Miami, or Dallas that can attract Top Free Agents, I can understand the reasoning. However, Toronto has yet to attain that type favourability.

As a result, I've said it, and I'll keep saying it...

DeRozan #9 pick
Valanciunas #5 pick
Ross #8 pick
Poeltl #9 pick
Adams #12 pick (Traded for Lowry)

Not Superstars... Not Top 3 Tanking Picks... But all very good players who were picked by US in the LOTTERY that were ultimately traded to get us Lowry, Leonard, Ibaka, and Gasol that formed our Championship core. At the end of the day, unless you're consistently dealing your own players at the correct time to gain future high-end draft picks, it's inevitable a team will have to return to the lottery to inject younger higher ceiling talent onto their roster.

I find it very curious that everyone can criticize the amount of picks I included with my trade, but no one seems to offering up a counter proposal, a different trade, or explaining why they think they could get the trade I'm proposing for less picks. The bottom line is that's the amount of picks I think it would take in today's market to turn Norman Powell and chaff into a one time all-star in his prime, averaging 20/10/3, under contract for this season and two more, at a very good and descending(!!) price of 26mil/24mil/22mil. He's the exact combination of factors that make him worth getting for that price, and for making him part of the next title contending core. Oh, and free agency the next couple years looks like a crapshoot too.

To answer your question, of course lottery picks are valuable, but anyone who think we are going to end this season well below .500% is really kidding themselves. We're not getting a top 5 pick. We're not even getting a top 8 pick. Bobby and Masai aren't going to participate in a firesale, nor do they want to. They want to compete and give Kyle a good team to stay on so he'll retire a Raptor, and a player like Vucevic I think would do that and make our team flexible going forward. He's a great asset and would give us exactly the scoring punch we need.

When it comes to picks my stance is generally that one in the hand is worth two in the bush. What are the odds those three players (swaps are not guaranteed to even happen) are collectively more impactful than Vucevic? Not high in my opinion.

[KL78192020]

Anyone who thinks this record will continue over the course of the season and actually get us a top 5 pick - keeping in mind they have specifically flattened the odds to prevent tanking - would be terribly disappointed if we kept on the same course because we'll end up with the 10th-14th pick in the draft and these same people will then get upset when we don't get a perennial all-star at that slot.

May I ask do you value First Round Picks at all to begin with? The reason I ask is you're the OP of a trending post where you suggest giving away Three 1st Round Picks and Two First Round Pick Swaps for Vucevic. At a time when Big Men are valued less than ever, and most decent Centers can be had for an MLE, you seem to be willing to hand out a lot of picks for one. Some people/teams don't value First Round picks, and if you are in a glamour or no-tax market like Los Angeles, Miami, or Dallas that can attract Top Free Agents, I can understand the reasoning. However, Toronto has yet to attain that type favourability.

As a result, I've said it, and I'll keep saying it...

DeRozan #9 pick
Valanciunas #5 pick
Ross #8 pick
Poeltl #9 pick
Adams #12 pick (Traded for Lowry)

Not Superstars... Not Top 3 Tanking Picks... But all very good players who were picked by US in the LOTTERY that were ultimately traded to get us Lowry, Leonard, Ibaka, and Gasol that formed our Championship core. At the end of the day, unless you're consistently dealing your own players at the correct time to gain future high-end draft picks, it's inevitable a team will have to return to the lottery to inject younger higher ceiling talent onto their roster.

I find it very curious that everyone can criticize the amount of picks I included with my trade, but no one seems to offering up a counter proposal, a different trade, or explaining why they think they could get the trade I'm proposing for less picks. The bottom line is that's the amount of picks I think it would take in today's market to turn Norman Powell and chaff into a one time all-star in his prime, averaging 20/10/3, under contract for this season and two more, at a very good and descending(!!) price of 26mil/24mil/22mil. He's the exact combination of factors that make him worth getting for that price, and for making him part of the next title contending core. Oh, and free agency the next couple years looks like a crapshoot too.

To answer your question, of course lottery picks are valuable, but anyone who think we are going to end this season well below .500% is really kidding themselves. We're not getting a top 5 pick. We're not even getting a top 8 pick. Bobby and Masai aren't going to participate in a firesale, nor do they want to. They want to compete and give Kyle a good team to stay on so he'll retire a Raptor, and a player like Vucevic I think would do that and make our team flexible going forward. He's a great asset and would give us exactly the scoring punch we need.

When it comes to picks my stance is generally that one in the hand is worth two in the bush. What are the odds those three players (swaps are not guaranteed to even happen) are collectively more impactful than Vucevic? Not high in my opinion.

Becauce Vucevic is no Kawhi. All that trade does is make the Raptors a treadmill team. Do you think Vucevic can lead them to a championship? Because once you make that trade, the team has zero assets left.

[Metallikid]

As long as we are bottom 4 by the end of the year, we will have an equal chance (14%) to land the 1st overall pick. If we are bottom 2, the worst pick we can get is the 6th pick. And if we are the worst team, we are guaranteed a top 5 pick.

So at best we have a 14% chance of getting the 1st overall who historically has less than a 50% likelihood of becoming the MVP level player needed to be a contender. More likely is a pick who might become an All-Star if everything goes right.

What do you make of the Celtics rebuild and how well their #3 picks are doing now?

I think Billy King made a terrible mistake and the Celtics did less than nothing to deserve Tatum and Brown, and on top of that Colangelo traded up for Fultz.