Shams: BI extension (3 Years $120M) **Presser at 5:15pm** Link Pg. 24

[Raps Militia]

Masai was there he was just in the back. At the end of the day Masai is not the GM. He’s allowing Bobby to do the stuff GMs are supposed to

Exactly, nothing to read.

[brownbobcat]

Statistically, the chances of someone in the top 5-10 ending up as good as Siakam is also low.

But that's not the point. If you deem Siakam as being "not good enough", why would you choose a 100% chance of the same thing?

Which is the better last shot: a 3pt shot with 20% odds or a dunk with 100% odds? The answer is that it depends on how many points you need. If you're down 3, dunking the ball is always a mistake.

So it’s really a matter of what you think is the best way to build. There is no right or wrong way in terms of the two choices. So it’s kind of funny people are so adamant about one vs the other

Fair enough, but I think aiming for 45 wins has shown to be mistake time and time again.

[Scase]

So a 2nd overall pick is only good when it's still just a pick and not the player.

Yes this is considered a strong draft but most of the guys in the top 10 will end up with careers similar to or worse than BI's so far...and then what? All the arguing and name-calling telling other people around here they aren't smart enough...etc...what is it all for?

So ya...maybe we end up with a top 4 pick and that if that guy ends like BI or RJ...and Scase starts **** on him too? All of that arguing and insults and the guy we take may not even be all that good?

Draft is a crapshoot. Don't depend on it solely as a means of team building. If we hit on a pick...great and if the pick turns out like BI or RJ...that's fine too.

Man, you guys just like to repeat the same stupid crap over and over again eh?

If we drafted a guy who was putting up production like Ingram and he was healthy, I'd be happy with that. Just because Im not happy with a 27/28 year old who has been injured for 8 years doesnt mean I'm expecting a generational talent, a high end player that we have under contract control for 7-10 years is all I'm looking for. Give it a rest.

But we literally have a guy like BI that kind of production...it's BI himself!! He'll be a consistent 20+ppg scorer...that's a given. Health-wise...we shall see. The Pelicans' sports science and medical staff are ****. The fact that there is an ESPN article that mentions that prior to 2023 the Pelicans had not physical therapist on staff...like WTF? Toronto has an industry leading medical and sports science team. I do hope that Alex McKecknie and company can work with BI to strengthen his body so that he's less injury prone going forward. This is a new start for him.

But you just aren't impressed by anyone unless they are undrafted highly scouted prospects that have never even touched an NBA floor or a generational talent that only a handful of teams have. No love for anyone currently on the team because they don't fit into the aforementioned categories.

Let's try this one last time before I give up.

INGRAM IS INJURED, WILL BE 28 IN SEPTEMBER, AND IS ON AN EXPENSIVE CONTRACT

That's not good for long term success, what I would like instead :

A YOUNG PLAYER, THAT IS NOT CHRONICALLY INJURED, AND IS ON GREAT CONTRACT CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 7-10 YEARS, AND ON A CHEAP CONTRACT FOR THE NEXT 5

Does that help?

[mtcan]

Man, you guys just like to repeat the same stupid crap over and over again eh?

If we drafted a guy who was putting up production like Ingram and he was healthy, I'd be happy with that. Just because Im not happy with a 27/28 year old who has been injured for 8 years doesnt mean I'm expecting a generational talent, a high end player that we have under contract control for 7-10 years is all I'm looking for. Give it a rest.

But we literally have a guy like BI that kind of production...it's BI himself!! He'll be a consistent 20+ppg scorer...that's a given. Health-wise...we shall see. The Pelicans' sports science and medical staff are ****. The fact that there is an ESPN article that mentions that prior to 2023 the Pelicans had not physical therapist on staff...like WTF? Toronto has an industry leading medical and sports science team. I do hope that Alex McKecknie and company can work with BI to strengthen his body so that he's less injury prone going forward. This is a new start for him.

But you just aren't impressed by anyone unless they are undrafted highly scouted prospects that have never even touched an NBA floor or a generational talent that only a handful of teams have. No love for anyone currently on the team because they don't fit into the aforementioned categories.

Let's try this one last time before I give up.

INGRAM IS INJURED, WILL BE 28 IN SEPTEMBER, AND IS ON AN EXPENSIVE CONTRACT

That's not good for long term success, what I would like instead :

A YOUNG PLAYER, THAT IS NOT CHRONICALLY INJURED, AND IS ON GREAT CONTRACT CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 7-10 YEARS, AND ON A CHEAP CONTRACT FOR THE NEXT 5

Does that help?

YAY FOR THE MYSTERY BOX!!!!! YAY FOR THE GUY YOU DON'T IF HE IS CHRONICALLY INJURED YET AND DON'T KNOW IF HE CAN ACTUALLY PRODUCE ON AN NBA COURT!!!!! You're the broken record right now...not me. You can continue living in the hypothetical...I live in the actual.

[ArthurVandelay]

Man, you guys just like to repeat the same stupid crap over and over again eh?

If we drafted a guy who was putting up production like Ingram and he was healthy, I'd be happy with that. Just because Im not happy with a 27/28 year old who has been injured for 8 years doesnt mean I'm expecting a generational talent, a high end player that we have under contract control for 7-10 years is all I'm looking for. Give it a rest.

But we literally have a guy like BI that kind of production...it's BI himself!! He'll be a consistent 20+ppg scorer...that's a given. Health-wise...we shall see. The Pelicans' sports science and medical staff are ****. The fact that there is an ESPN article that mentions that prior to 2023 the Pelicans had not physical therapist on staff...like WTF? Toronto has an industry leading medical and sports science team. I do hope that Alex McKecknie and company can work with BI to strengthen his body so that he's less injury prone going forward. This is a new start for him.

But you just aren't impressed by anyone unless they are undrafted highly scouted prospects that have never even touched an NBA floor or a generational talent that only a handful of teams have. No love for anyone currently on the team because they don't fit into the aforementioned categories.

Let's try this one last time before I give up.

INGRAM IS INJURED, WILL BE 28 IN SEPTEMBER, AND IS ON AN EXPENSIVE CONTRACT

That's not good for long term success, what I would like instead :

A YOUNG PLAYER, THAT IS NOT CHRONICALLY INJURED, AND IS ON GREAT CONTRACT CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 7-10 YEARS, AND ON A CHEAP CONTRACT FOR THE NEXT 5

Does that help?

I’m looking forward to Ace too!

[mtcan]

But we literally have a guy like BI that kind of production...it's BI himself!! He'll be a consistent 20+ppg scorer...that's a given. Health-wise...we shall see. The Pelicans' sports science and medical staff are ****. The fact that there is an ESPN article that mentions that prior to 2023 the Pelicans had not physical therapist on staff...like WTF? Toronto has an industry leading medical and sports science team. I do hope that Alex McKecknie and company can work with BI to strengthen his body so that he's less injury prone going forward. This is a new start for him.

But you just aren't impressed by anyone unless they are undrafted highly scouted prospects that have never even touched an NBA floor or a generational talent that only a handful of teams have. No love for anyone currently on the team because they don't fit into the aforementioned categories.

Let's try this one last time before I give up.

INGRAM IS INJURED, WILL BE 28 IN SEPTEMBER, AND IS ON AN EXPENSIVE CONTRACT

That's not good for long term success, what I would like instead :

A YOUNG PLAYER, THAT IS NOT CHRONICALLY INJURED, AND IS ON GREAT CONTRACT CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 7-10 YEARS, AND ON A CHEAP CONTRACT FOR THE NEXT 5

Does that help?

I’m looking forward to Ace too!

Trust me...I'd be happy with Ace too. But at the same time...I'm also happy to have BI and hope Ace can be as productive as BI. There is literally no downside to having both. We have one and have a chance at the other as well...not a bad place to be.

[nikster]

The same way it isn't/wasn't impressive when a team makes the playoffs with a losing record, or in a league where half the teams make the playoffs. If damn near half the people you are compared to do something, that's not impressive, it's virtually expected. A 2nd OA pick making 1 ASG as a reserve in 9 years is not impressive, maybe you need to up your standards.

Something that only 40% of the very best prospects in the world can do is not impressive? If you don't think that's impressive your gonna be very disappointed with he vast majority of lottery picks you seem to value so highly

This isn't like a 1 in 100 chance we're talking about here, he's a 2nd OA pick, he SHOULD be making an all star team. Should I be impressed when a 1st OA pick isn't bad too? Like come on man, expectations are baked into things, it is impressive seeing someone like FVV/Siakam make an ASG, that is quite literally defying the odds. But we're talking about something that is slightly less reliable than a coin flip here.

If he made multiple ASGs, yeah, that would be impressive. But plenty of mediocre players have made single all star games in their careers, I would hope a 2nd OA pick could manage at least 1. I guess I have higher standards.

Just another thing to add about the odds for a second round pick. In the last 25 years, only three 2nd overalls picks (Durant, Morant and Aldridge) have made multiple all star games. Ingram only needs one more to join that group and hes just entering hisi prime

[brownbobcat]

YAY FOR THE MYSTERY BOX!!!!! YAY FOR THE GUY YOU DON'T IF HE IS CHRONICALLY INJURED YET AND DON'T KNOW IF HE CAN ACTUALLY PRODUCE ON AN NBA COURT!!!!! You're the broken record right now...not me. You can continue living in the hypothetical...I live in the actual.

Why would anyone want 100% chance of something mediocre instead of a 10% chance at something good?

That's not to say Ingram himself is mediocre, but there is extremely little upside from here on out. I completely understand the view that we're no better off than 2.5 years ago with Siakam.

We got Barnes from the mystery box. Siakam and OG too. You know what, mystery box has worked out decently for Masai.

[mtcan]

YAY FOR THE MYSTERY BOX!!!!! YAY FOR THE GUY YOU DON'T IF HE IS CHRONICALLY INJURED YET AND DON'T KNOW IF HE CAN ACTUALLY PRODUCE ON AN NBA COURT!!!!! You're the broken record right now...not me. You can continue living in the hypothetical...I live in the actual.

Why would anyone want 100% chance of something mediocre instead of a 10% chance at something good?

That's not to say Ingram himself is mediocre, but there is extremely little upside from here on out. I completely understand the view that we're no better off than 2.5 years ago with Siakam.

It's not either or. I like having both BI and the chance at the mystery box...but by no means am I putting all my eggs in the mystery box because we've all been wrong about the mystery box before. But ya...BI is a good addition and as long as the front office is clear on the direction...the mystery box will also come...win-win.

[PhilBlackson]

I'm you on a lot things Scase but I really don't know what your REALISTIC expectations were for this "rebuild".

I'm tWo as much as the next guy but I knew realistically there's no way in hell Masai is going into a contract year with just one Playoff appearance in 5 years. We were NEVER going to tank 2 years in a row AND this team genuinely isn't as bad as the actual worst of the league. The BEST case scenario for our draft pick next year would've been 10+ so idk why all of this is so upsetting for you.

But anyways I'm not interested in the back & forth about Ingram, unfortunately you're just gonna have to learn to accept it and I think you're majorly underrating him and will see once he gets on court and especially how he fits in with these guys. But I just can't believe how many pages you're dedicating to fighting this tooth & nail especially when I don't know again what you realistically (not ideally) expected.

[brownbobcat]

I'm you on a lot things Scase but I really don't know what your REALISTIC expectations were for this "rebuild".

I'm tWo as much as the next guy but I knew realistically there's no way in hell Masai is going into a contract year with just one Playoff appearance in 5 years. We were NEVER going to tank 2 years in a row AND this team genuinely isn't as bad as the actual worst of the league. The BEST case scenario for our draft pick next year would've been 10+ so idk why all of this is so upsetting for you.

But anyways I'm not interested in the back & forth about Ingram, unfortunately you're just gonna have to learn to accept it and I think you're majorly underrating him and will see once he gets on court and especially how he fits in with these guys. But I just can't believe how many pages you're dedicating to fighting this tooth & nail especially when I don't know again what you realistically (not ideally) expected.

But this is what happens when you take shortcuts. You end up with these 35-40 win teams that then have to blow it all up again anyway. It is what it is at this point, I hope a healthy IQ can show that he can be close to a top-10 PG. I hope RJ gets a jumpshot - Barnes, too.

[ForeverTFC]

YAY FOR THE MYSTERY BOX!!!!! YAY FOR THE GUY YOU DON'T IF HE IS CHRONICALLY INJURED YET AND DON'T KNOW IF HE CAN ACTUALLY PRODUCE ON AN NBA COURT!!!!! You're the broken record right now...not me. You can continue living in the hypothetical...I live in the actual.

Why would anyone want 100% chance of something mediocre instead of a 10% chance at something good?

That's not to say Ingram himself is mediocre, but there is extremely little upside from here on out. I completely understand the view that we're no better off than 2.5 years ago with Siakam.

We got Barnes from the mystery box. Siakam and OG too. You know what, mystery box has worked out decently for Masai.

Because the expected value of the latter is lower than "mediocre"? We also got Malachi Flynn and Bruno Caboclo from the mystery box.

I'm not arguing either side, but the answer to your question is an easy one.

[brownbobcat]

YAY FOR THE MYSTERY BOX!!!!! YAY FOR THE GUY YOU DON'T IF HE IS CHRONICALLY INJURED YET AND DON'T KNOW IF HE CAN ACTUALLY PRODUCE ON AN NBA COURT!!!!! You're the broken record right now...not me. You can continue living in the hypothetical...I live in the actual.

Why would anyone want 100% chance of something mediocre instead of a 10% chance at something good?

That's not to say Ingram himself is mediocre, but there is extremely little upside from here on out. I completely understand the view that we're no better off than 2.5 years ago with Siakam.

We got Barnes from the mystery box. Siakam and OG too. You know what, mystery box has worked out decently for Masai.

Because the expected value of the latter is lower than "mediocre"? We also got Malachi Flynn and Bruno Caboclo from the mystery box.

I'm not arguing either side, but the answer to your question is an easy one.

No, dead wrong. I'll repeat my post from earlier:

Which is the better last shot: a 3pt shot with 20% odds or a dunk with 100% odds? The answer is that it depends on how many points you need. If you're down 3, dunking the ball is always a mistake. It's about increasing variance, not expected value.

[redeye514]

YAY FOR THE MYSTERY BOX!!!!! YAY FOR THE GUY YOU DON'T IF HE IS CHRONICALLY INJURED YET AND DON'T KNOW IF HE CAN ACTUALLY PRODUCE ON AN NBA COURT!!!!! You're the broken record right now...not me. You can continue living in the hypothetical...I live in the actual.

Why would anyone want 100% chance of something mediocre instead of a 10% chance at something good?

That's not to say Ingram himself is mediocre, but there is extremely little upside from here on out. I completely understand the view that we're no better off than 2.5 years ago with Siakam.

We got Barnes from the mystery box. Siakam and OG too. You know what, mystery box has worked out decently for Masai.

No upside? Our top 8 guys, including a Top 7 pick this year, are all 27 and under. 3-5 years of upside, no? Isnt that the point of a young team.

[mtcan]

YAY FOR THE MYSTERY BOX!!!!! YAY FOR THE GUY YOU DON'T IF HE IS CHRONICALLY INJURED YET AND DON'T KNOW IF HE CAN ACTUALLY PRODUCE ON AN NBA COURT!!!!! You're the broken record right now...not me. You can continue living in the hypothetical...I live in the actual.

Why would anyone want 100% chance of something mediocre instead of a 10% chance at something good?

That's not to say Ingram himself is mediocre, but there is extremely little upside from here on out. I completely understand the view that we're no better off than 2.5 years ago with Siakam.

We got Barnes from the mystery box. Siakam and OG too. You know what, mystery box has worked out decently for Masai.

No upside? Our top 8 guys, including a Top 7 pick this year, are all 27 and under. 3-5 years of upside, no? Isnt that the point of a young team.

Here's the thing about the mystery box...the picks are really enticing because there is no player associated with it...then you draft the guy and there is still intrigue as to how good he COULD be...and then when kid steps on to the court and you realize that he isn't what the pre-draft comps sell him as...that's when the petals come off the flower and the kid is just another player with flaws...and then it's time to cheer for the next mystery box until the inevitable letdown happens...unless the kid happens to be Luka or Lebron...and lets be honest...how often do these guys happen to come along???

[brownbobcat]

No upside? Our top 8 guys, including a Top 7 pick this year, are all 27 and under. 3-5 years of upside, no? Isnt that the point of a young team.

I was talking specifically about Ingram and not the rest of the team, but how many players in the league are 27 and under? A ton.
Not all upside is created equally. You can't just say 'Jakobe is young and therefore has unlimited potential' and just base everything on that. Sure, he or Gradey might turn out to be stars, but they haven't shown good reason to expect that.

Yes, of course it's reasonable to expect some improvement but that's the bare minimum. Do you know how trash you have to be NOT to get better when you're given millions of dollars and the best basketball resources in the world?

[PhilBlackson]

I'm you on a lot things Scase but I really don't know what your REALISTIC expectations were for this "rebuild".

I'm tWo as much as the next guy but I knew realistically there's no way in hell Masai is going into a contract year with just one Playoff appearance in 5 years. We were NEVER going to tank 2 years in a row AND this team genuinely isn't as bad as the actual worst of the league. The BEST case scenario for our draft pick next year would've been 10+ so idk why all of this is so upsetting for you.

But anyways I'm not interested in the back & forth about Ingram, unfortunately you're just gonna have to learn to accept it and I think you're majorly underrating him and will see once he gets on court and especially how he fits in with these guys. But I just can't believe how many pages you're dedicating to fighting this tooth & nail especially when I don't know again what you realistically (not ideally) expected.

But this is what happens when you take shortcuts. You end up with these 35-40 win teams that then have to blow it all up again anyway. It is what it is at this point, I hope a healthy IQ can show that he can be close to a top-10 PG. I hope RJ gets a jumpshot - Barnes, too.

I get the frustration but I think that frustration has also made some of you guys overly pessimistic...

IE/ I don't buy that we're only a 35-40W team next year at all and in fact wouldn't have been surprised if we were that this year IF we were healthy. It's like some of you guys aren't factoring how decimated with injuries most of our important players have been. We don't have a single starter that hasn't missed significant time this season. If this team really wanted to bring back Yak and Ingram for the final month of the season I could legit see them adding another 15Ws which would put them near 30 despite again all those injuries. I'm sure they won't do that but you get the point.

Not to mention it's not like BI will be THE final move. In reality, they'll like start consolidating some of these current younger players over the next several years ie/ RJ, Gradey etc into a larger deal for another star player which with Scottie, BI and whatever top 5-8 pick could end up being a really damn good core. I know the dream of drafting one of Flagg/Harper then AJ/Boozer would be a great FANTASY to happen but reality is a different matter. We're STRUGGLING just to remain in the bottom 5, with better health next season, even without BI and other teams like CHI, BKN, ATL all joining the multi year tank we would've been relying on at best top 5 this year and likely 9-15th pick next year to change everything?! That just seems like a far out dream especially when Masai's contract is up next year idk how anyone could've possibly thought he was just gonna bottom out going into his contract negotiations.

But I don't see what's so bad about a Barnes/BI/top 5-8 pick core PLUS all of IQ, RJ, Gradey, JaKobe, Ochai, Shead, developing to either help or become players used in a later trade(s) to get them over the top or at least a respectable franchise.

[Appostis]

Excluding this szn, BI has played in 74% of his games over a 4yr span

He's not as injury prone as he is being labeled

And why are we excluding this season?

Because he got undercut in the air which something anyone would get injured by

Barnes is injury prone for getting elbowed in the eye/broken face to some people.

BI has played under the average games played if you include this year, but just slightly.

[brownbobcat]

Here's the thing about the mystery box...the picks are really enticing because there is no player associated with it...then you draft the guy and there is still intrigue as to how good he COULD be...and then when kid steps on to the court and you realize that he isn't what the pre-draft comps sell him as...that's when the petals come off the flower and the kid is just another player with flaws...and then it's time to cheer for the next mystery box until the inevitable letdown happens...unless the kid happens to be Luka or Lebron...and lets be honest...how often do these guys happen to come along???

I haven't said anywhere that they should dump Barnes just because he's not LeBron.

No, the conclusion was: he's good, but not enough. Let's go add another one.

[ForeverTFC]

Why would anyone want 100% chance of something mediocre instead of a 10% chance at something good?

That's not to say Ingram himself is mediocre, but there is extremely little upside from here on out. I completely understand the view that we're no better off than 2.5 years ago with Siakam.

We got Barnes from the mystery box. Siakam and OG too. You know what, mystery box has worked out decently for Masai.

Because the expected value of the latter is lower than "mediocre"? We also got Malachi Flynn and Bruno Caboclo from the mystery box.

I'm not arguing either side, but the answer to your question is an easy one.

No, dead wrong. I'll repeat my post from earlier:

Which is the better last shot: a 3pt shot with 20% odds or a dunk with 100% odds? The answer is that it depends on how many points you need. If you're down 3, dunking the ball is always a mistake. It's about increasing variance, not expected value.

But that analogy doesn't belong in this argument. The immediate context in your scenario requires that I maximize the chance of scoring right then; the variance matters in a discrete scenario like yours. Team building is not discreet; it's continuous in nature and the sum of the parts dictate returns over time.

Let's go through an exercise: let's say you have 5 picks and can trade each for a Brandon Ingram level player. Alternatively you can make all 5 picks with 10% chance that each leads to a player better than Ingram, 30% that it leads to a player like Ingram, and 60% chance that it's a player worse than ingram. Assume that a pick that give you a better player = +1 points, a similar pick = 0 points, and a pick worse than Ingram = -0.5 points to account for the outsized value of a superstar.

In the event that you trade all your picks, the value = 0. Then we can calculate the probability where the sum of the values > 0 if we keep all the picks and that tells us how often we "win" by taking the mystery box. The answer here is ~12% of the time, you end up with a better team if you keep all your picks.

Again, the answer to your question is clear as to why someone would choose Ingram over a mystery box in a continuous team building exercise.