Official Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Kevin Willis]

https://qz.com/1854926/other-virus-outbreaks-erupt-alongside-coronavirus-worldwide/?utm_source=YPL&yptr=yahoo

[nikster]

So South Korea opened up last week and now they're dealing with another outbreak. Weeks prior they were in the single digits or with none. If there were cases, it was mainly imported.

This time South Korea's aggressive contact tracing linked it to a 29 yr old man who visted 3 different nightclubs.
http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200507000634

To put it into perspective:
South Korea today announced 34 cases with 26 of them being domestic and linked to the nightclubs.
Day before they had 18 new cases with 17 of them being linked to the nightclubs.

Since the outbreak, South Korea is scaling back and has now banned all bars and clubs from opening. Now they have over 7000 people on watch for any potential cases.

It might sound like a failure, but thanks to their contact tracing the damage has been mostly mitigated.

South Koreas contact tracing is impressive, but I dont see that happening in North America. This case goes to show how important it is for people to be cautious once things re-open. You cant just go back to normal. This guy visited "three nightclubs ...as well as a restaurant, supermarket, clinic, shop and pharmacy" during a long weekend

The amount of potential transmissions from that one single case is insane. Dont do everything all at once when things start to re open

[Westside Gunn]

^lol youre asking too much from people.

the SK news is definitely concerning. it just goes to show we're not going towards the normal or close to normal anytime soon.

[Brinbe]

yep, we're in this for the long-haul until (hopefully) we get a vaccine. unprecedented and sad times. but lives are at stake and this is the sacrifice we need to make for each other.

[SFour]

when are the CESB applications for students going to be available

[andrewww]

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

From everything Ive read, the risk of exposure is high even with social distancing for enclosed environments.

Its really looking like herd immunity is the eventual solution.

[Courtside]

Wuhan has 6 new cases, so they're going to test 11 million people, within a week.

THAT is what it takes to clamp down on the virus and make things safe to be opened up.

[Fairview4Life]

Its really looking like herd immunity is the eventual solution.

A vaccine was the only eventual solution. But there is still a lot you can do to mitigate things.

[Kevin Willis]

Wuhan has 6 new cases, so they're going to test 11 million people, within a week.

THAT is what it takes to clamp down on the virus and make things safe to be opened up.

CCP is also lying. If they say they have 6 cases it's most likely 60, maybe even 600. That's why they're testing that many people in Wuhan.

[Neutral 123]

Wuhan has 6 new cases, so they're going to test 11 million people, within a week.

THAT is what it takes to clamp down on the virus and make things safe to be opened up.

CCP is also lying. If they say they have 6 cases it's most likely 60, maybe even 600. That's why they're testing that many people in Wuhan.

Their daily reports of 2 new cases is definitely fake news. Like others have said, we have a new normal. This thing isn't going away. Even that herd immunity stuff seems like a pipe dream. Most likely reinfection is a thing.

[andrewww]

Its really looking like herd immunity is the eventual solution.

A vaccine was the only eventual solution. But there is still a lot you can do to mitigate things.

Except a vaccine isnt a guarantee.

[Fairview4Life]

Its really looking like herd immunity is the eventual solution.

A vaccine was the only eventual solution. But there is still a lot you can do to mitigate things.

Except a vaccine isnt a guarantee.

That's how you get herd immunity.

[Vaclac]

A vaccine was the only eventual solution. But there is still a lot you can do to mitigate things.

Except a vaccine isnt a guarantee.

That's how you get herd immunity.

Come on - I assume you know better than that. I understand preferring to get there via vaccine because that way we don't need a lot of people to get infected to get there. But diseases do eventually run their course absent vaccines and they do so by herd immunity.

[Fairview4Life]

Except a vaccine isnt a guarantee.

That's how you get herd immunity.

Come on - I assume you know better than that. I understand preferring to get there via vaccine because that way we don't need a lot of people to get infected to get there. But diseases do eventually run their course absent vaccines and they do so by herd immunity.

But that's not actually true. Like, smallpox and polio didn't magically disappear once everyone got it once. It's basically impossible to plan that. Viruses don't just infect everyone once, say "whelp, I guess that's it for me" and **** off forever. That's not even getting into giving a virus a lot more time and replications to mutate just by letting everyone get sick instead of not doing that.

[Vaclac]

That's how you get herd immunity.

Come on - I assume you know better than that. I understand preferring to get there via vaccine because that way we don't need a lot of people to get infected to get there. But diseases do eventually run their course absent vaccines and they do so by herd immunity.

But that's not actually true. Like, smallpox and polio didn't magically disappear once everyone got it once. It's basically impossible to plan that. Viruses don't just infect everyone once, say "whelp, I guess that's it for me" and **** off forever. That's not even getting into giving a virus a lot more time and replications to mutate just by letting everyone get sick instead of not doing that.

Sure, there is residual infection after the herd immunity threshold is reached. The threshold being hit just means cases will start to decline then, and also means that any new outbreaks will be much smaller because there's fewer (but not 0) people to infect. We'll still want a vaccine to eliminate the rest even if we hit the herd immunity threshold before a vaccine is developed. But it is false to say as you did that there is only one way in which herd immunity can occur.

[Fairview4Life]

Come on - I assume you know better than that. I understand preferring to get there via vaccine because that way we don't need a lot of people to get infected to get there. But diseases do eventually run their course absent vaccines and they do so by herd immunity.

But that's not actually true. Like, smallpox and polio didn't magically disappear once everyone got it once. It's basically impossible to plan that. Viruses don't just infect everyone once, say "whelp, I guess that's it for me" and **** off forever. That's not even getting into giving a virus a lot more time and replications to mutate just by letting everyone get sick instead of not doing that.

Sure, there is residual infection after the herd immunity threshold is reached. The threshold being hit just means cases will start to decline then, and also means that any new outbreaks will be much smaller because there's fewer (but not 0) people to infect. We'll still want a vaccine to eliminate the rest even if we hit the herd immunity threshold before a vaccine is developed. But it is false to say as you did that there is only one way in which herd immunity can occur.

How about this: there is only one practical way to gain herd immunity. It's called a vaccine.

[Vaclac]

But that's not actually true. Like, smallpox and polio didn't magically disappear once everyone got it once. It's basically impossible to plan that. Viruses don't just infect everyone once, say "whelp, I guess that's it for me" and **** off forever. That's not even getting into giving a virus a lot more time and replications to mutate just by letting everyone get sick instead of not doing that.

Sure, there is residual infection after the herd immunity threshold is reached. The threshold being hit just means cases will start to decline then, and also means that any new outbreaks will be much smaller because there's fewer (but not 0) people to infect. We'll still want a vaccine to eliminate the rest even if we hit the herd immunity threshold before a vaccine is developed. But it is false to say as you did that there is only one way in which herd immunity can occur.

How about this: there is only one practical way to gain herd immunity. It's called a vaccine.

I agree it is the ideal way. I think we disagree on practicality. All choices are bad choices - I find continued extreme efforts to prevent infections from ever occurring until a vaccine is developed to be impractical. I gather you think lighter touch measures that reduce spread some but not enough to prevent herd immunity from eventually being reached a la Sweden, is impractical.

[Fairview4Life]

Sure, there is residual infection after the herd immunity threshold is reached. The threshold being hit just means cases will start to decline then, and also means that any new outbreaks will be much smaller because there's fewer (but not 0) people to infect. We'll still want a vaccine to eliminate the rest even if we hit the herd immunity threshold before a vaccine is developed. But it is false to say as you did that there is only one way in which herd immunity can occur.

How about this: there is only one practical way to gain herd immunity. It's called a vaccine.

I agree it is the ideal way. I think we disagree on practicality. All choices are bad choices - I find continued extreme efforts to prevent infections from ever occurring until a vaccine is developed to be impractical. I gather you think lighter touch measures that reduce spread some but not enough to prevent herd immunity from eventually being reached a la Sweden, is impractical.

There is no indication that Sweden is actually on a path to herd immunity, their death rate is significantly higher than comparable neighbours, and they aren't seeing any actual economic benefit from the "lighter touch" restrictions.

I think the ideal is South Korea or Taiwan. Clamp down as much as necessary to eliminate as much of the community spread as possible. Slowly open things back up after using the clamp down time to dramatically increase testing capacity and get everyone possible wearing face masks in public. Get ready to centrally quarantine and contact trace as new outbreaks happen. Just sitting around and waiting while locked down and reopening after a few months is useless.

[Courtside]

A vaccine was the only eventual solution. But there is still a lot you can do to mitigate things.

Except a vaccine isnt a guarantee.

That's how you get herd immunity.

It's a whichever scenario happens first thing. You either have mass amounts of ill people gaining immunity the old fashioned way, or they get immunity through vaccination. One or the other on an individual level and some combination of both on a population level.

Both presume that A) there *is* actually an immunity period after recovering and B) a vaccine can replicate this by scientific means. We aren't certain of either thing yet, though the pattern with Coronas suggests that it's very likely.

If the vaccine in 12-18 months away and even then will take time for mass distribution, then there's a good chance that up to half the population will be exposed to the virus, or even 75%. It just has to be done as slowly as possible.

And none of this accounts for mutations that may render either type of gained immunity moot. If mutation start happening like they do with the seasonal flu, then we're likely looking at COVID being with us for a realllly long time, and ongoing vaccination programs as new strains are identified, studied and built into the next vaccine.

We have to figure out how we want to live the next 18-24 months, with the hope that slowing it down will buy us time to develop treatment programs that reduce the lethality and/or make recovery a really high % thing.

[Vaclac]

How about this: there is only one practical way to gain herd immunity. It's called a vaccine.

I agree it is the ideal way. I think we disagree on practicality. All choices are bad choices - I find continued extreme efforts to prevent infections from ever occurring until a vaccine is developed to be impractical. I gather you think lighter touch measures that reduce spread some but not enough to prevent herd immunity from eventually being reached a la Sweden, is impractical.

There is no indication that Sweden is actually on a path to herd immunity, their death rate is significantly higher than comparable neighbours, and they aren't seeing any actual economic benefit from the "lighter touch" restrictions.

I think the ideal is South Korea or Taiwan. Clamp down as much as necessary to eliminate as much of the community spread as possible. Slowly open things back up after using the clamp down time to dramatically increase testing capacity and get everyone possible wearing face masks in public. Get ready to centrally quarantine and contact trace as new outbreaks happen. Just sitting around and waiting while locked down and reopening after a few months is useless.

Yes, Sweden has higher deaths than its neighbors - I believe that they just had them earlier rather than later, but only time will tell if that's correct. You can think it wasn't worth it for them - that's a reasonable debate, but i think it's pretty clear they have reached the threshold since their infections and deaths are clearly declining despite not taking extreme measures. How else can that be explained? As to economics, Sweden has in fact had less decline than its neighbors. Of course they are very connected so they can't avoid a decline entirely but they have suffered less economically.
I agree South Korea and Taiwan are the best examples from countries whose data we can believe, but I haven't seen any European or North American county get on that path.