The Value of Tanking

[C Court]

Probability allows us to determine the expected value of all possible outcomes. Reality only allows for one possible outcome to occur - no matter what the probability of each outcome prior to the event taking place (unless that probability is zero).

In the Raptors case they have always been on the wrong end of reality when it comes to 1st overall. No Allen Iverson in their first draft.
No High School players in the 2005 draft.

Now I won't get into the concept of fate, but I am having visions of somehow being screwed over by a lockout in 2011. Manifest desitiny my a**.

You are spot on. Timing and luck play a bigger role than many will admit. While I'm fine with tanking, its a risky game that often goes awry.

Last year the Nets tanked to land either Wall or Turner. They got neither. Yet their best player - Brook Lopez was drafted #10.

The Celtics tanked to land Oden or Durant. they got neither. Yet they got Rajon Rondo with the 21st pick.

[J-Roc]

Long post to say tanking is good. Yet we know tanking doesn't guarantee anything. Plus we need to tank a couple of years to really get enough talent.

The way I see it, we'll do bad just because our players suck. Then we'll see where the ping pong balls drop. While we wait for all that to sort out, we need to get a GM who knows how to build a basketball team, a coach who knows how to run a system, and anyone on the roster now to just.....improve.

[Rude Boy 1]

Thanks Schad.

What's really sad is that we weren't really trying to tank. Our GM just built such an incredibly flawed roster, that even when it's REALLY trying to win games, it can't.

Thank God for all of BC's stupid mistakes.

come on dude you don't actually believe that do you?

You think the Raptors are trying to lose games on purpose? Have you been watching?

We just suck.

No I know they suck I just don't think Colangelo was expecting the playoffs from this sad little team.

[Alfred]

Probability allows us to determine the expected value of all possible outcomes. Reality only allows for one possible outcome to occur - no matter what the probability of each outcome prior to the event taking place (unless that probability is zero).

In the Raptors case they have always been on the wrong end of reality when it comes to 1st overall. No Allen Iverson in their first draft.
No High School players in the 2005 draft.

Now I won't get into the concept of fate, but I am having visions of somehow being screwed over by a lockout in 2011. Manifest desitiny my a**.

You are spot on. Timing and luck play a bigger role than many will admit. While I'm fine with tanking, its a risky game that often goes awry.

Last year the Nets tanked to land either Wall or Turner. They got neither. Yet their best player - Brook Lopez was drafted #10.

The Celtics tanked to land Oden or Durant. they got neither. Yet they got Rajon Rondo with the 21st pick.

Yet the Nets got Derrick Favors, a guy with huge upside, and the Celtics traded their high picks and players they got through tanking for the big three. Kendrick Perkins admitted that they were tanking.

[Lionel Messi]

come on dude you don't actually believe that do you?

You think the Raptors are trying to lose games on purpose? Have you been watching?

We just suck.

No I know they suck I just don't think Colangelo was expecting the playoffs from this sad little team.

No, I never said we were expecting to, but the team and the roster he assembled is TRYING to and thought it was plausible.

Heck, I'm sure even BC thought it was somewhat plausible. Also, trading for Diaw and Chandler clearly shows that he wanted to try and make the play-offs this season.

[Rude Boy 1]

You think the Raptors are trying to lose games on purpose? Have you been watching?

We just suck.

No I know they suck I just don't think Colangelo was expecting the playoffs from this sad little team.

No, I never said we were expecting to, but the team and the roster he assembled is TRYING to and thought it was plausible.

Heck, I'm sure even BC thought it was somewhat plausible. Also, trading for Diaw and Chandler clearly shows that he wanted to try and make the play-offs this season.

One could argue had they made that trade they would be.

[YogiStewart]

just wondering, though:

i don't assume that BC's tanking. i really don't.

[Rude Boy 1]

Man this Ozzy dude is a real ___

[Lionel Messi]

No I know they suck I just don't think Colangelo was expecting the playoffs from this sad little team.

No, I never said we were expecting to, but the team and the roster he assembled is TRYING to and thought it was plausible.

Heck, I'm sure even BC thought it was somewhat plausible. Also, trading for Diaw and Chandler clearly shows that he wanted to try and make the play-offs this season.

One could argue had they made that trade they would be.

My point is that even when BC is trying as hard as he can to build a competitive team, he failed. Our roster was so poorly balanced last season that the moment our best player left we are arguably the worst team in the league.

Basically, BC did such a terrible job the past 3/4 years of building a team, that he has no choice but to tank now.

[C Court]

Yet the Nets got Derrick Favors, a guy with huge upside, and the Celtics traded their high picks and players they got through tanking for the big three. Kendrick Perkins admitted that they were tanking.

Favors likely won't have the same impact as Wall, who was the Nets primary target. The Celtics did trade their pick to land Allen, but the real game changer came when they acquired Garnett. That said, the tanking era in Boston doesn't end well if the T-Wolves had accepted an arguably better offer from the Bulls for KG.

My point is that tanking never plays out the way many expect it will.

[J-Roc]

Stats show that if you plant a gun in the locker of your top offensive player, you'll get the 1st pick in the draft. Pretty sure it works 100% of the time. Andrea....wazzup!

[ATLTimekeeper]

They might/might not of had a top 3 pick. But they probably drafted a star/superstar, which is what we need to do at this point in time, and is far easier to do the higher the draft spot. Sure it's possible to get a superstar once in a while @ the 6-12 picks but it's very hit or miss. We dont need "hit of miss" right now imo, we need to be shooting fish in a barrell.

You're correct. I was actually confirming that it's better to have a top 3 than any other pick in the draft, that's undeniable. But, whether that leads to success faster or better than another method of team-building I think is murky.

either using it to acquire a better player or building around that pick.

I think this should be a pro tank statment no? As in Boston tanked to get an asset, and ended up getting Ray Ray who'll prob give them 45 W's over 5 years. I think it just kinda depends on what position your team is in for how to utilize that asset.

I think you misunderstood this part. Teams with a top 3 pick haven't used that pick to generate their own success as much as we'd like to believe. Either by keeping the player, or trading for other assets/players. I don't have the stats yet, but if I get some time I'll look into it further. But, just as a test, try and think of some of the champs and powerhouses of the past 15 years or so that had a top 3 pick (and Darko doesn't count).

I think it depends on the situations. I think ours calls for it. I would however like to see some positioning by BC to make some moves to create a good team for a lotto pick to walk into. Maybe unclog the PG position. Trade Bargs for a useful piece if Davis shows hes good. Consolidate our assets to find a #2, #3 player, shed some salary etc...

I agree, it depends on the situation, the quality of the draft, the temper of the good players on the team, etc.

[Alfred]

Yet the Nets got Derrick Favors, a guy with huge upside, and the Celtics traded their high picks and players they got through tanking for the big three. Kendrick Perkins admitted that they were tanking.

Favors likely won't have the same impact as Wall, who was the Nets primary target. The Celtics did trade their pick to land Allen, but the real game changer came when they acquired Garnett. That said, the tanking era in Boston doesn't end well if the T-Wolves had accepted an arguably better offer from the Bulls for KG.

My point is that tanking never plays out the way many expect it will.

They didn't get Wall, but they got a very high upside player in Derrick Favors. He's a guy that could be one of the better power forwards in the league in a few seasons. The Celtics got both Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett with the picks and prospects that they acquired and developed via tanking.

Boston is an example of a tank done correctly.

The point is that most of the best teams in the league have at least one or two top 3 picks on their teams. The easiest way of acquiring those types of players are to get them in the draft.

[Raps in 4]

It's impossible to argue against the value of tanking.

[C Court]

Boston is an example of a tank done correctly.

The point is that most of the best teams in the league have at least one or two top 3 picks on their teams. The easiest way of acquiring those types of players are to get them in the draft.

For every good example, they are many more bad examples. Look at the Clippers, the T-Wolves and the Bulls who tanked and landed Curry and Chandler as their building blocks of the future.

[Morris_Shatford]

It's impossible to argue against the value of tanking.

Clearly;
Its brought so many chips to the Wolves and Clippers who could even consider debating the value of being a putrid team with a high draft choice season after season.

[Rhettmatic]

It's impossible to argue against the value of tanking.

Clearly;
Its brought so many chips to the Wolves and Clippers who could even consider debating the value of being a putrid team with a high draft choice season after season.

I do think it's impossible (or at least very difficult) to make a compelling argument w.r.t. this specific Raptors squad, though. Colangelo has absolutely laid waste to this team over the past few years. I really can't see how we could have pursued any other path.

Those who oppose the rebuild... what sort of transactions would you have liked to see in the summer?

[Shaazzam]

This team has little assets and a couple really poor contracts.

The only real way to build the asset base is via the draft. We need high picks, and a bunch of them.

[timdunkit]

Long post to say tanking is good. Yet we know tanking doesn't guarantee anything. Plus we need to tank a couple of years to really get enough talent.

The way I see it, we'll do bad just because our players suck. Then we'll see where the ping pong balls drop. While we wait for all that to sort out, we need to get a GM who knows how to build a basketball team, a coach who knows how to run a system, and anyone on the roster now to just.....improve.

No ... you actually only have to tank 2 years max ... If your tanking for more then 2 years, you either suck at drafting or your talent simply isn't good enough.

Thats the difference between successfully tanking and unsuccessfully tanking. The blazers didn't tank for eons ... they tanked till they drafted Roy and the nxt season the fluked into the first pick (they had 31 wins ... hardly a tanking job) and in Roy's second year they won 41 games. OKC drafted Durant ... tanked ... drafted Westbrook ... tank ... Harden and then there in the playoffs.

If your tanking for 8 years like Minnesota is ... its a sign ... the talent your drafting simply isn't good enough to compete in this league. If your talent is good enough to compete in this league, you can usually tell in the 3/4 season

[pass first]

It's impossible to argue against the value of tanking.

Clearly;
Its brought so many chips to the Wolves and Clippers who could even consider debating the value of being a putrid team with a high draft choice season after season.

I do think it's impossible (or at least very difficult) to make a compelling argument w.r.t. this specific Raptors squad, though. Colangelo has absolutely laid waste to this team over the past few years. I really can't see how we could have pursued any other path.

Those who oppose the rebuild... what sort of transactions would you have liked to see in the summer?

I'm not opposed to the rebuild, if that's what it's called, the sum of this summer's transactions. I'm not a die hard tanker though. Maybe if we're dead last at the All Star break that might change. Anyway, regardless of who we pick and where in the draft, improvement from within, along with good trades or signings are necessary to become a great team. Tanking alone is never enough. The Grizlies are doing pretty well now but their #2 pick has got little to do with it.