Post#74 » by Boner Champ » Sat Jun 25, 2011 1:56 pm
No, this is not another thread asking what will happen, because nobody knows.
But I am interested, and have a suspicion that they may turn to the NHL who was in the same situation in 2005, and incidentally, that year, too, had a very strong draft class and was surely as hotly contested as this one will be with all teams wanting a piece of the action.
In that draft, each team was allotted 3 lottery balls before they lost one for each playoff appearance in the previous 3 years or lottery win in the previous 4.
Now, without posting all the results, I calculated that there would be a total of 49 lottery balls, with the Raps being one of 5 teams to have 3 balls (the other 4 include Sacramento, Minny, Golden State, and New Jersey).
The odds of the raps winning, then, are simple to calculate: each ball has very close to a 2% chance of being selected, and so the teams with 3 balls have a 6% chance of winning, the teams with 2: 4%, and 1: 2%.
While it would obviously behoove the Raps to have a season in which we can likely suck enough to improve upon those odds (of course assuming there is no other way in which the league determines draft order), I don't have the math skills to determine what the teams' odds of falling elsewhere in the lottery are?
Would those more mathematically inclined be able to say what our odds of falling in the top-3 are? Top-5, Top-10, etc.?