Dr Mufasa wrote:Realball asked me to back up my JV post in the other thread, I didn't think it was fair to the rest of the readers of that thread to clutter it up. The responses in in this thread are already garbage and full of obnoxious insults, so what's the harm...
The phrase that I decided describes my feelings on JV is complete lack of fluidity and feel for the game. I see a guy who's big and tall who can move his feet quickly but not someone who smoothly moves around the court either offensively or defensively. To me this comes down to athleticism. Body control and smoothness/fluidity is a huge part if not the biggest part of athleticism and I don't see it in him. In a way I think JV's running form (one of the most awkward I've ever seen out of an NBA prospect) is a microcosm of his athletic concerns. What I have realized is that almost all the prospects I like come down to being smooth and having a feel for the game. One of the prospects I came out on a limb over the most in a positive way was Greg Monroe because he was one of the smoothest big men I've seen in college. I was smitten enough to make posts about how he was a better prospect than Blake in 2009 and had him 2nd/3rd with Turner in 2010. Many of the busts in NBA history have come down to not having feel for the game. They are drafted for their bodies and length but just do not play at a smooth enough fashion to be in the NBA
On top of that to me JV is someone who I believe has no lift and won't have the strength barring an even bigger blowup to manhandle NBA Cs. Because of his lack of lift and lack of great use of his body I don't see him impacting a large deal of plays defensively even in the LKL right now. He's not as long as his wingspan because of that lack of leap to get up higher and he can get pushed out of the way if bodied up.
In addition to this I have a huge problem with his basketball IQ and ability to read the game. He simply does not look that aware defensively to me and does not seem to have great vision offensively either
I'm not sold on his rebounding at all due to the before-mentioned lack of leap. Despite his great numbers in the games I've watched I've seen the opposing player get rebounds over him, that a player with more NBA friendly rebounding wouldn't have had happen. He's also not at using his body to back down an opponent in rebounding position IMO
His best attribute other than height is skill in that he has good hands around the basket and some form of a jumpshot. However I don't see height and hands amounting to much if concerns in the rest of his game hold up as much as I believe they will. He needs to be able to use his size effectively, not just have it.
My positive scenario for JV is that he indeed ends up being an 11rpg+ per 36 type of guy, and his combination of height and tenacity and work ethic allows him to bully inside to be in position to score points with his hands, enough to get about 10 pts per 36 as well. This is why I compare him to Anderson Varejao in potential. My worst case scenario for him is that my concerns about his feel for the game and his rebounding not translating come into full fruition and we are talking within a month of the season starting that he is a bust because of how obvious it is that he doesn't belong mentally and physically in the pros.
This is what I don't understand at all. What do you mean by fluidity? What do you mean when you say "he has quick feet but doesn't move around the court"?
Everything you're saying is basically the opposite of what most scouts have been reporting. And I personally don't understand how a player who runs the pick and roll as well as Val can be considered not fluid. Players who are not fluid generally are unable to play the pick and roll well because they are either unable to pick their spots properly when the ball handler makes his move, or they don't have the ability to finish or hands to catch the pass. Joakim Noah is a perfect example of the first type of player. He sets great picks, has got good hands, and is a decent finisher, but he absolutely sucks at anticipating where to go on the pick and roll. Tyson Chandler is a perfect example of the second type of player. He has fantastic athleticism, sets great picks, and is fantastic at rolling to the basket. However, he has no coordination whatsoever, and has stone hands, so he basically has to wait till the ball handler can send him the ball right next to the basket.
Val, on the other hand, is fantastic on the pick and roll. He sets mediocre picks, but he picks his spots tremendously, and is able to finish. That's what people mean when they use fluidity or feel for the game to describe a big man. Who cares how he runs? What matters is that he gets down the court before everyone else and is able to finish.
And as for "he can't move around the court offensively and defensively", what does that even mean? Do you mean to say that he doesn't have a good motor? Are you saying that he doesn't have shot-blocking instincts? I can agree with that, I don't seem him being more than just an adequate help defender. You're completely right, he doesn't have the lift to go up and block shots at the rim (whether or not he has the defensive IQ like Noah remains to be seen). But offensively? It would make sense if he were a bad pick and roll player or a mediocre offensive rebounder, but he's the complete opposite. His motor, fluidity, and length is basically what makes him a highly regarded prospect, but for some reason, you think he has no fluidity or motor.
When I see Val play, I see the complete opposite of a stiff, which is what you are describing him as. I personally project him to be a Macin Gortat type of player, but there is significant difference between Gortat and Val in terms of fluidity. Gortat is the definition of a stiff. He doesn't run the floor well, and has extreme difficulty in executes fluid offensive moves such as an pump fake or an up-and-under. You'll see him pump fake and take a dribble to the basket once every blue moon. That's something that I see Val use a lot. It's something that Chandler, Biedrins, Gortat, and almost every other C with his size are unable to do.
As for Meyers Leonard. To me Meyers is a more talented player than Valanciunas is almost every area. He is much more mobile and fluid to me and does not have that feel for the game concern Val has from my perspective. Because of his extra athleticism I see him as having greater lift, which helps his length impact the game more defensively right now (IMO). He's not the rebounder Valanciunas is but if Valanciunas is impressive in the what but not the how to me, Meyers is the opposite. With his size and athleticism I can see a jump up in rebounding eventually, he just needs to block out in more tough fashion. Finally the reason I like Leonard the most is that I see him as a super high potential post player. If you watched the Missouri game I posted, you'll notice that every time he is in the post he looks great. He has a combination of 7 foot height, elite hands and extremely quick feet (arguably Anthony Davis quick), which shows him making some NBA style spin moves already. His biggest concern is that he simply doesn't hold position in the post enough, preferring a lot to float out to the perimeter to set screens, either that or he's just being soft. One extremely encouraging stat is that Meyers is 60%+ in 2P%. 2pt percentage is more and more getting called out by the statheads as the most important NCAA stat in terms of what translates offensively. Players with NBA style offensive games a lot of times put up those big efficiencies in college. A good example is Roy Hibbert scoring 13.4ppg his final year in college so people were counting him out as a standout offensive option at the next level - But he did it on 60.5% from 2, and the year before that 67%+. That was more indicative of his post talent than his volume
I am more sold on Meyers athleticism, skill level, basketball IQ and especially feel for the game than Valanciunas. Meyers impresses me with the how and not the what, Valanciunas is the opposite. I'm expecting Meyers to go to Portland or Sacramento assuming the former keeps their pick, as both teams need a center. I'm expecting his floor is Portland's #11, I just have a hard time imagining them passing on him twice. If in POR I expect him to be a starter extremely quickly and follow a path in productivity that resembles Lamarcus Aldridge's coming out of Texas
I can't comment on Leonard because I've only seen him play one game much earlier in the season and in highlights, but the Aldridge comparison is ridiculous. Aldridge was way more polished than Leonard going into the draft.
Also, if Meyers 13 ppg on 60% in 30 mins is impressive to you, then why do you discount Val, who averaged 10 ppg on 60% in in 22 mins?