Los Manos wrote:Dr Mufasa wrote:I have no faith in this team's scouting ability. I clipped together 3 games of Barnes plays for a scouting video and his count of times that he broke through his man to man defender's defense into the paint/at the rim off the dribble, was literally zero. Nada, zed ee are oh. He's a one dimensional perimeter scorer who lacks the single most important thing that a perimeter scorer can do (penetration creation). His game is basically 2pt jumpshots, most of them off balance, a 3pt shot, or a random post up or transition basket here or there. Does that sound like something we should be pining for.
I'll take 3 years of a pro teams scouting over your 3 games worth. How the hell did you come to value your own opinion this highly?
The appeal to authority argument is extremely flawed for a few reasons. First is that NBA drafting has sucked for about 17 years, from when teams stopped getting the luxury of seeing everyone play NCAA basketball for 3-4 years and started having to judge young freshman or high school students or Euros vs productive juniors/seniors. Honestly I think you could ask random NBA and NCAA fans what their big boards are and the success would be equal to or better than the history of the draft the last 15 years. Both would nail the obvious stars and would be hit and miss on the rest. Secondly it's beyond obvious that most of the time, the scouts give the GM or owner all their information and then it's that higher up who makes the decision. It's not the scout who's grinded his bones for 20 years who makes the final decision here, it's suits like David Kahn, Michael Heisley, Bryan Colangelo, Paul Allen, etc., none of whom are in their positions of power through an actual history of getting these things right.
Finally scouts don't even disagree with my assessment of Barnes. Here's a series of quotes from David Aldridge's draft page
Barnes' skill is catching and shooting. He's a smooth perimeter talent, and at 6-foot-8 he's more than big enough to get his shot off against most pro threes. A team with a low-post option or a penetrating point guard could have a field day rotating the ball out to Barnes on the weakside.
"No question he's a catch-and-shoot guy," said an Eastern Conference exec. "He's not a slasher. He's not a good finisher at the basket. Doesn't look all that athletic. But he's going to look good. I have to believe he'll be all of 6-8, NBA body, he can shoot the ball and would be a willing defender. He didn't have a great year, but I still don't think it's going to hurt him."
The Tar Heels made the Elite Eight, but lost to Kansas. Barnes scored just 13 points on 5 of 14 shooting in that game, and when he tried to take over he couldn't get going. That game exemplified Carolina's struggles without point guard Kendall Marshall, who fractured his wrist during the tournament.
Scouts are almost apologetic when they describe their concerns about Barnes, who is by all accounts a solid young man. And that quality may have hurt his Draft position.
Without Marshall, Carolina didn't have anyone who could really create a shot for himself or others. Barnes couldn't really do it, either, but he was the best Carolina had, so he tried. It wound up hurting his numbers.
"What you ended up seeing was those bad shooting nights," said a Northwest Division executive. "He had several NCAA games where he just struggled. Some of that was being forced to do too much. He averaged about one assist a game, so you've got to be thinking, is that on him or is that the lack of scoring on that team?"
Said a Southeast Division talent evaluator: "They took a guy who was essentially a jump shooter, and at the end of the year they have him putting the ball on the [bleeping] ground and driving. Young fella, that's not what you do. What you do is knock down jumpers off two bounces, and off the catch."
Scouts also think Barnes may have felt obligated to live off of the hype that accompanied him out of high school to Chapel Hill.
"I think he should be an adequate defender, but to be honest, he's got to get over the fact that he was the high school player of the year and the greatest thing going, and the fact that he's no longer that," said a Pacific Division scout. "I don't know where his head's at. But he's a quality kid. No reason he can't figure it out. When he came to college I expected someone who was ahead of Shane Battier at that developmental stage, and Shane's had a pretty good career ... I never saw Harrison Barnes as LeBron James or Kobe Bryant or Jerry Stackhouse. I just saw a nice, solid player."
That isn't a bad thing, and scouts know that.
"I think Harrison could be a guy that we get down on and forget about, and then he has a solid, 15-year career," a Western Conference executive said. "You always want more from him, but he's talented enough and good enough that he's going to last. When you come in with so much hype, it's a disappointment when you don't live up to that."
http://www.nba.com/news/features/david_ ... index.htmlBarnes is a guy who takes jumpshots. He's not a slasher or player who can get to the rim off the dribble at all. He's not a player who passes it enough to run an offense through, he doesn't play with particularly high intensity or defensive impact. His shot selection was extremely mediocre. If he falls to 8 I won't be that upset if we get him. He's probably going to start and score over 15ppg just by finding a way to take 15 shots a game. I would take him near the end of the lotto, but I would say the same about Waiters and Lillard. I just don't think he's anywhere near the type of prospect that changes the fortune of a franchise, or is something to be party excited about if he's there. He'll probably be for the SF position what Bargnani is at PF. Maybe a top 20-25 starter, has a 16ppg+ raw ppg on a high volume, that's about it.
