L.Williams End of Quarter Isolation Stats Through 42 Games (Updated pg.5)

[distracted]

We don't know that 1pps is inefficient in this context. Yes, it's not the most efficient compared to other players who are taking their shots throughout the game, in the flow of the offense, and choosing the quality of their shots, but the end of quarters is a totally different situation. He has the ball in his hands, the defender knows he's going to shoot it and roughly when he has to shoot it. Under those circumstances, I would estimate that 1pps is actually a very good efficiency that wouldn't be matched by many players in the league. It's equivalent to taking only two-point shots in that context and shooting 50%. I don't know what more you guys want...

Raptors total points on the year: 2,084
Raptors total FTM on the year: 441
Total points excluding FTs: 1,643
Total FGA: 1,601
Total points per FGA (excluding FTs): 1.03

Another way to look at it is eFG% at .500.
Notable raptors all situations:
Lowry: .507
Derozan: .402
Lou: .505
Vasquez: .474
Team: .513

There are a number of raptors higher than .500, but none that can initiate offense on their own unless we dump it into Jonas who has a .552 eFG% (but some of that is going to come from put backs and assisted lay-ups).

Given the scenario, .500 eFG% and no time left on the clock is actually very good.

[pg16kid]

I am actually perfectly fine with Lou iso-ing at the end of quarters. Its fun to watch and if it goes in -- momentum swing!

[Walid]

Does anyone have updated stats for Lou Williams end of quarter field goal percentage?

[J-Roc]

Next Monday I think

Casey will call on Lou all regular season for those end of clock shots. But come playoffs we'll see an Amir summer three.

[J_Sky_G]

I just don't understand hy you can't run a real play with the lou iso

Even just to keep opposing defenses on their toes.

Dribbling the ball for the entirety of the clock and pulling from three is a waste of a possession imo

[ballercb4]

Run plays casey run plays casey dont be LAZY!!!!

[Hackett]

So I was watching the game last night and I saw Lou miss some 3's at the end of a couple of quarters and I started to realize this happens a lot. Went into the game thread and noticed many other fans were annoyed by this as well. I did some quick research and have put the stats together. Look below:

Jazz Game - 2014/12/03
1st quarter - Made 3 (27.9 seconds)
2nd Quarter - Missed 3 (10 seconds)
3rd quarter - Missed 3 (26.9 seconds)

Shots Taken: 3. Total points 3
Less than 14 seconds (1). More than 14 seconds (2)

Kings Game - 2014/12/02
1st quarter - Missed 3 (25.9 seconds)
2nd quarter - Missed 3 (5.5 seconds)
3rd quarter - Missed 2 (12.8 seconds left)

Shots Taken: 3. Total points: 0

Less than 14 seconds (2). More than 14 seconds (1)

Lakers Game - 2014/11/30
1st quarter - Missed 2 (23.9 seconds)
2nd quarter - Missed 3 (38.9 seconds)
3rd quarter - Dunk (30.7 seconds)

Shots Taken: 3. Total points: 2
Less than 14 seconds (0). More than 14 seconds (3)

Dallas Game - 2014/11/28
1st quarter - Missed 3 (33.6 seconds)
3rd quarter - Missed 3 (17.9 seconds)

Shots Taken: 2. Points: 0
Less than 14 seconds (0). More than 14 seconds (2)

Atlanta Game - 2014/11/26
1st quarter - Made 2 free throws (12.9 seconds)
3rd quarter - Made 3 (30.4 seconds)

Shots Taken: 2. Points: 5
Less than 14 seconds (1). More than 14 seconds (1)

PHX Game - 2014/11/24
1st quarter - Missed 2 (30.4 seconds)

Shots Taken: 1. Points: 0
Less than 14 seconds (0). More than 14 seconds (1)

Cleveland Game - 2014/11/22

1st quarter - Missed 2 (10.3 seconds)
2nd quarter - Made 3 (17.5 seconds)
3rd quarter - Missed 3 (<0 seconds left)

Shots Taken: 3. Points: 3
Less than 14 seconds (2). More than 14 seconds (1)

Milwaukee Game - 2014/11/21
1st quarter - Made 3 (23.9 seconds)
2nd quarter - Made 3 (23.4 seconds)
3rd quarter - Made 3 free throws (30.7 seconds)

Shots Taken: 3. Points: 9

Less than 14 seconds (0). More than 14 seconds (3)

Memphis Game - 2014/11/19
-None taken

Shots Taken: 0. Points: 0

Utah Game - 2014/11/15
3rd quarter - Missed 2 (24.9 seconds)

Shots Taken: 1. Points: 0
Less than 14 seconds (0). More than 14 seconds (1)

Bulls Game - 2014/11/13
3rd quarter - Missed 3 (5.9 seconds left)

Shots Taken: 1. Points: 0
Less than 14 seconds (1). More than 14 seconds (0)

Orlando game - 2014/11/11
3rd quarter - Missed 3 (2.5 seconds left)

Shots Taken: 1. Points: 0
Less than 14 seconds (1). More than 14 seconds (0)

Philadelphia Game - 2014/11/09
3rd quarter - Made 2 (14.9 seconds)

Shots Taken: 1. Points: 2
Less than 14 seconds (1). More than 14 seconds (0)

Washington Game - 2014/11/07
2nd quarter - Missed 3 (46.4 seconds)
3rd quarter - Missed 2 (58.4 seconds)

Shots Taken: 2. Points: 0
Less than 14 seconds (0). More than 14 seconds (2)

Boston game - 2014/11/05
3rd quarter - Made 2 (15.9 seconds left)

Shots Taken: 1. Points: 2
Less than 14 seconds (0). More than 14 seconds (1)

OKC Game - 2014/11/04
-none

Shots Taken: 0. Points: 0

Miami game - 2014/11/02
3rd quarter - Made 2 freethrows (19.9 seconds left)

Shots Taken: 1. Points: 2
Less than 14 seconds (0). More than 14 seconds (1)

Orlando Game - 2014/11/01
1st quarter - Missed 2 (17.9 seconds left)
3rd quarter - Made 2 freethrows (3.5 seconds left)

Shots Taken: 2. Points: 2
Less than 14 seconds (1). More than 14 seconds (1)

Atlanta Game - 2014/10/29
1st quarter - Missed 3 (7.9 Seconds)
3rd quarter - Made 2 (4.9 seconds)

Shots Taken: 2. Points: 2
Less than 14 seconds (2). More than 14 seconds (0)


Shots Taken: 32. Points: 32
Less than 14 seconds (12). More than 14 seconds (20)

I'm no Hollinger but I know that 32 points on 32 shots isn't good efficiency. Not only is that concerning but the trend is what is more concerning. In the first 10 games, Lou only took 12 end of quarter shots so an average of 1.2 per game. However, in the next 9 games he has taken 20 end of quarter shots which is an average of 2.2 per game. So not only is the efficiency low but the attempts are increasing. Now I know some people will say it's just one possession but the concern is that in the playoffs every possession counts. These are the type of bad habits the team needs to avoid for the long run. Hopefully Casey changes this and starts to run some actual plays at the end of the quarter rather than a Lou Williams isolation.

For popular demand I have added the amount of time left on the clock for each possession when the Raptors got the ball back. I've broken it down from less than 14 seconds left and more than 14 seconds left as IMO I believe 14 seconds is enough time to run a proper play. I didn't go as far as calculating the averages for points scored with less than 14 seconds vs more than 14 seconds but I may do that later this afternoon.

You would have to do the same for all our other options, to decide if Lou taking that shot is really that bad.

Generally speaking, if Lou has an open shot, you give it to him. Also last few seconds of the game, half time/tend to be a little more contested because everyone wants to go to the lockeroom on a good note, or with a win. (s the difficulty of those moments is much higher than regular in game shooting)

[Yosemite Dan]

How is that an Iso? Does Lou even attempt to drive to the basket get a cheap foul? He simply dribbles out the clock and takes a long contested shot. It just shows to me that the inmates are runnning the asylum and it's to massage egos. I don't care who is shooting, its a wasted possession and there is absolutely no logic to it. Run a damn play because I would rather take any other jumpshooter on the Raps with an open look than Lou or Kyle with a contested and usually long range jumper.

[victor page]

It's a waste of a possession, particularly if they're losing at the time. Run the damn offense, and give yourself a better chance to score.

NBA coaches can be so dumb - they spend too much time in airplanes the altitude affects their brain activity.

[The Watcher]

every possession counts.

One thing that people are missing from this analysis is that he's VERY good at running out the clock in these scenarios. This is the appeal to the coaching staff.

As the OP has said, every possession counts and when you can get an (arguably) decent shot but guarantee the other team doesn't get a shot, there is huge value in that.

Agreed, but if you've got 10 seconds, its enough to run a basic pick and roll or pick and pop (with PatPat since he's a good shooter), and at worst, the PG would have time to drive and kick it out to the perimeter if the defense collapses.

I agree with the importance of giving not giving the other team a shot, but the predictable isos just arent the best use of the final possession in a quarter.

[The Watcher]

It's not great efficiency when you have 24+ seconds. I'd like a further analysis of how many seconds were actually left. 3 seconds is not plenty to create a GOOD play, heck, maybe not even 8-9 seconds.

I'd like to see Mr. "Three-Lou- One" Williams engaged in a Pick and pop with Pat2. Maybe start the play with 5 seconds left to have enough time for a pass to Pat2 and the shot. Or he could just go left and do the awkward half pump fake 3 pointer lol

Exactly! I just posted the same thing

[basketball royalty]

The thing I don't like is that it is so obvious already. Mix it up. Easier to defend when you know it is coming. Casey has been waiting to have a player like Lou on this team who can get a shot off every time. Used to try and force Bargnani, Gay and DD to do ISO shot always. No creativity.

[basketballbeans]

Look people (and the haters lol)... we all know that an isolation is not as efficient as a set play, but lets understand why teams iso when there is no time left on the shot clock...

Tt gives them the best chance to end the quarter with the biggest lead. You run a set play, make a bucket with 10 seconds left on the clock, and then the other team can come down, make a bucket of there own - could even out, they could be up one (3 pointer vs 2 pointer) or you could be up one. But you can't control how open the shot you get from a play is (if they were perfect, then shooting percentages would be above the 70%'s) or how fast the play runs - a play that typically takes 7 seconds to run might take 13 and you might not even get an open look, so running a play late in the shot clock is not better then doing an iso to kill the clock. Not only that, you run a set play, get an open look but miss it with 10 seconds left (people miss open shots all the time), other team comes down the court and makes a bucket... Now they've ended the quarter on a better note then y'all, even tho it was in your hands... with an iso that only leaves 3 seconds left on the clock, that is your best and most consistent chance to end the quarter on the best note. Not as efficient as a set play but it does guarantee that the other team won't score, baring the shot isn't taken to early and you ain't turn over the ball.

I think an iso at the end is the best thing to do

[Scase]

How is that an Iso? Does Lou even attempt to drive to the basket get a cheap foul? He simply dribbles out the clock and takes a long contested shot. It just shows to me that the inmates are runnning the asylum and it's to massage egos. I don't care who is shooting, its a wasted possession and there is absolutely no logic to it. Run a damn play because I would rather take any other jumpshooter on the Raps with an open look than Lou or Kyle with a contested and usually long range jumper.

ISO = Isolation. ISO's are 1 on 1, what he chooses to do is irrelevant as it is still a 1 on 1 shot.

Now do I agree that he should be doing more than just cranking up a 3 every time? Yes. And I think it was the Portland game, or the GSW one where he drew the attention cause they assumed he would shoot and kicked it out to an open GV for 3.

The ISO isn't the issue, it's the repetitive nature of his actions. This isn't Bosh from 15 feet out, an automatic 2. Those actions can be done ad nauseum as they work on high efficiency. I have no issues with him being the go to in those situations, he just needs to widen the repertoire.

[bluerap23]

How is that an Iso? Does Lou even attempt to drive to the basket get a cheap foul? He simply dribbles out the clock and takes a long contested shot. It just shows to me that the inmates are runnning the asylum and it's to massage egos. I don't care who is shooting, its a wasted possession and there is absolutely no logic to it. Run a damn play because I would rather take any other jumpshooter on the Raps with an open look than Lou or Kyle with a contested and usually long range jumper.

ISO = Isolation. ISO's are 1 on 1, what he chooses to do is irrelevant as it is still a 1 on 1 shot.

Now do I agree that he should be doing more than just cranking up a 3 every time? Yes. And I think it was the Portland game, or the GSW one where he drew the attention cause they assumed he would shoot and kicked it out to an open GV for 3.

The ISO isn't the issue, it's the repetitive nature of his actions. This isn't Bosh from 15 feet out, an automatic 2. Those actions can be done ad nauseum as they work on high efficiency. I have no issues with him being the go to in those situations, he just needs to widen the repertoire.

This is why I would rather give the ball to Kyle. He is more likely to generate an open look for a teammate. Lou will almost never pass the ball in this situation. This does also fall on coaching. Why would you want to wait until there is 1 second to take a shot. If you penetrate with 5 seconds left it gives you time for 2 or 3 extra passes and an offensive rebound put back.

[Scase]

How is that an Iso? Does Lou even attempt to drive to the basket get a cheap foul? He simply dribbles out the clock and takes a long contested shot. It just shows to me that the inmates are runnning the asylum and it's to massage egos. I don't care who is shooting, its a wasted possession and there is absolutely no logic to it. Run a damn play because I would rather take any other jumpshooter on the Raps with an open look than Lou or Kyle with a contested and usually long range jumper.

ISO = Isolation. ISO's are 1 on 1, what he chooses to do is irrelevant as it is still a 1 on 1 shot.

Now do I agree that he should be doing more than just cranking up a 3 every time? Yes. And I think it was the Portland game, or the GSW one where he drew the attention cause they assumed he would shoot and kicked it out to an open GV for 3.

The ISO isn't the issue, it's the repetitive nature of his actions. This isn't Bosh from 15 feet out, an automatic 2. Those actions can be done ad nauseum as they work on high efficiency. I have no issues with him being the go to in those situations, he just needs to widen the repertoire.

This is why I would rather give the ball to Kyle. He is more likely to generate an open look for a teammate. Lou will almost never pass the ball in this situation. This does also fall on coaching. Why would you want to wait until there is 1 second to take a shot. If you penetrate with 5 seconds left it gives you time for 2 or 3 extra passes and an offensive rebound put back.

The problem I have with that, is that Kyle already has enough of the load levied on him, and he is likely to get burnt out. Constantly trying to throw up last ditch efforts and missing might end up having a negative affect on his confidence level

Honestly I think it boils down to Casey not coming up with even a half decent end of clock play. And the end of it all he's the coach and if he thinks "Let Lou do whatever the hell he wants" is an acceptable play, then we have much bigger issues than Lou taking contested 3's.

[changes]

What he does is an insult to the word iso and players that can actually be effective in an iso.

Change it to run down clock and jack up a contested 3.

[MVP-]

Next Monday I think

Casey will call on Lou all regular season for those end of clock shots. But come playoffs we'll see an Amir summer three.

lmao, I actually love when he shoots 3s because only 2 amazing possibilities stem from it:

1 - Matty D gets in Jacks face about it.
2 - Matty D sounds absolutely crushed that it didn't go it after proclaiming "Amir Johnson with the summer 3....... ugh, shot doesn't go."

[peteyjones13]

It is INFURIATING to me every time that Lou and Kyle are both on the floor, and Lou is given the ball for the end of quarter shot. It is beyond shocking and idiotic. Kyle is so much stronger, and as a result, can drive to the rim, create etc... Lou can pretty much only take a difficult, contested, line drive shot. We are losing a lot of points by giving Lou the ball instead of Kyle. I'm terrified that Lou will finally hit a couple of these shots at the end of quarters, thus justifying this idiotic strategy for another 20-30 games. Agree?

[Reg00]

I am not totally against it, I am just not a fan of predictable things on offense.