Dwayne Casey on Kyle Lowry and Altering Offense

[ruckus]

why do people act like it always has to be some extreme? that casey has to **** on lowry and demar and that he has to restructure the entire offensive system to make everyone happy?

this is not the case AT ALL... what people want to see is the ability to recognize the small adjustments that need to be made... im sure most rational fans dont think were gonna start running hawks or golden state or spurs plays all of sudden... its just that casey REFUSES to change anything at all... even a small thing like giving valanciunas more touches is suuuuuchhh a paiiiinful experience for casey... even something as simple as admitting, "hey demar and kyle just arent playing the way were used to, and maybe we have to find a way to work around that and get other people involved" is suchhhhh a difffffficult idea for casey to accept... no one is expecting him to be like, "WELL NOW IM GONNA STEAL POP'S ENTIRE PLAYBOOK." its just that within the course of the games he really doesnt like to go away from his philosophy at all and he thinks thats a win somehow justifies all the mistakes weve made... ive heard coaches BITCH AND COMPLAIN after wins for not executing the game plan properly... AFTER WINS... and yet casey acts like winning means that he did everything right.

Except if you look at the numbers, he has made small changes and Val's touches are up from the regular season.

[dTox]

Josh Lewenberg ‏@JLew1050
Casey on Lowry/DeRozan-"They're our guys. They carried us the entire year. Its hard to say stop shooting & start looking for everybody else"

Josh Lewenberg ‏@JLew1050
Casey on DeRozan/Lowry: "They take accountability for some of the tough shots they take but we have to live with some of their tough shots"

This is all a result of poor long term strategy this year. People get so enamored with regular season statistics that they don't see obvious weaknesses that can be exploited even in the face of high regular season offensive rating. Diversity was something they should've pushed more of (and I have a ridiculous amount of posts pleading for it this past off-season), especially in regards to JV, but alas he's still the team's best player in the playoffs.

You and I both, including last year featuring Lou Williams et all, I was hoping the coaching staff would have learned from their experience after the Wizards' series but...here we are again.

[Chevy Chase]

Yes, you can say this about most team's but not when it comes to the Raptors' system.

The Raptors have been running the same thing for three years and it has failed ALL three years. This is not a case where the team is running something decent that just requires patience. The Raptors are continuing to do things that have failed year after year after year in the playoffs.

They're literally rewriting the record books for worst offense categories. They are so easy to stop, it's comical when you watch them play and experts are wondering what the heck it is they're running.

To make matters worse, when they struggle, they revert back to slowing down the offense and going back to the guard isos even more frequently, compounding the problems.

It's actually ridiculous that this team pays a guys millions to see this, and he doesn't see it.

Doing a quicky analysis, the Raps are getting more open to wide open looks from 3 than in the regular season (18.8 vs 17.7) but, they are making them at a lesser clip (29% vs 38%). You bridge that gap and, most conversations would be of a fairly different tone right now.

I'm not going to dispute that our offense is ugly. It is. Little ball movement, etc, etc. But for the most part, it works. You stick those open looks and, the conversation is different today.

Can I dispute the narrative of little ball movement??

They are 6th in passes per game despite being 12th in pace in the POs.

If the argument is they arent generating alot of ASTs, id point to the fact this team is the second highest driving team in the POs.

The issue isnt ball movement, to me atleast, its that a) the shooting has been atrocious, and b) this team relies on kicks then drives as opposed to off screen shots/C&S.

Exactly. The only play I'd like to see a bit more often is having DD, Ross, KL etc shoot off screens. I think the wide openness that MIA is giving them for their shots is making them second guess whether or not they should drive. If they caught the ball after a screen and simply turned and fired, the shooting would be more instinctive and perhaps more efficient.

[hsb]

Doing a quicky analysis, the Raps are getting more open to wide open looks from 3 than in the regular season (18.8 vs 17.7) but, they are making them at a lesser clip (29% vs 38%). You bridge that gap and, most conversations would be of a fairly different tone right now.

I'm not going to dispute that our offense is ugly. It is. Little ball movement, etc, etc. But for the most part, it works. You stick those open looks and, the conversation is different today.

Can I dispute the narrative of little ball movement??

They are 6th in passes per game despite being 12th in pace in the POs.

If the argument is they arent generating alot of ASTs, id point to the fact this team is the second highest driving team in the POs.

The issue isnt ball movement, to me atleast, its that a) the shooting has been atrocious, and b) this team relies on kicks then drives as opposed to off screen shots/C&S.

Exactly. The only play I'd like to see a bit more often is having DD, Ross, KL etc shoot off screens. I think the wide openness that MIA is giving them for their shots is making them second guess whether or not they should drive. If they caught the ball after a screen and simply turned and fired, the shooting would be more instinctive and perhaps more efficient.

KL has a FG% of 18% on off-screens lol, but only on 13 possessions, though it's not a good shot for him in the regular season. DD is shooting at a much more respectable rate, for him, with 44%.

[Dennis 37]

It is Masai's job to recognize the type of coach he has and supply players who will prosper in the coach's system. Demar abuses Casey's system and either has to be told to change, through an incentive based contract heavily weighted to team goals, or you let him walk.

It's Masai's job to acquire Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, Dirk Nowitzki, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and Klay Thomspon in their primes to get out of the first round reliably. Mmkay.

No, it was Masai's job to get rid of Lou Williams and Greivis Vasquez as they didn't fit Casey. You either get rid of players who don't fit, or you get rid of the coach. The coach is going nowhere.

Notice how the players, who Masai brought in, play and talk the team game, Scola, Biyombo, Carroll, Joseoh. None of those would say, "I'm going to empty my clip." Notice how Scola hits the wall this year and is taken off the floor, but is still right in their pumping up the team. Notice how JJ has even taken to a minimal role. Look at how Ross has taken a backseat from Powell, yet he keeps playing hard. How long can players last on the bench when certain players can stink for multiple games and get minimal redirection from the coach?

[slothrop8]

In the short term and the long term we just have to reign DeRozan in. There's no world where Demar taking 20 shots a game is good. Against playoff defense, it's an outright disaster. We're literally punting a decent % of our possessions every game we continue to let this happen. I still think we're somehow going to win this series anyway - but it's madness. Has to be curbed - I don't know by who or how - but he's at .403 TS and over 30% USG while being Demar DeRozan on the defensive end. It's apocalyptically bad - it's like we're trying to handicap ourselves and see if we can still win anyway.

[Hendrix]

So frustrating listening to him say "Those are the shots we normally make, they just weren't falling tonight. We are getting good looks still so they will start falling eventually."
WE ARE 9 PLAYOFF GAMES IN!!!!
THEY ARE NOT GOING TO FALL IF YOU DON'T ADJUST!!!

Huh?

This is very over-reactionary. You are saying "9 games" like it's a lot. Every player in the league has ebbs and flows to their season, especially when injuries are in the mix. 9 games is nothing. Kevin Durant has had stretches shooting 3's in the 20%'s over similar sample sizes.

Lowry has been our best player the last couple years. He's a massive part of the reason we won 57 games. We aren't going to get better by going away from him. He either plays better and we have a chance to win, or he continues sucking.

And, they are shots that he normally makes, what's wrong with that? It's not like going from ~40% on open 3's down to ~20% is sustainable. Of course he's going to start hitting them again at a normal rate if he's healthy and they are the same looks as normal.

[vini_vidi_vici]

I dont understand what ppl expect a coach to say. Hes not going to kill KL in the media and ofcourse hes going to encourage him, hes 12+% more open looks than vs the RS in the POs. Right now teams are daring this team to beat them on the perimeter, to the extent they are getting more open looks, if they cant hit them you just keep encouraging them to do so. Consequently, if/when they start hitting them, it will open things up theoretically for perimeter drives, PnR, and PostUps.

Agree with you to a point, though not all open shots are created equal.

There are other ways to open up lanes and get easier shots. Whiteside is sinking and staying at the basket. We have exploited this to some degree, and should continue to exploit it even more. Also, we may need to start initiating action somewhere else, and have kyle/demar off-ball to mix up a few possessions. The problem with our O is that it is too predictable right now. Teams are challenging us to take the open perimeter shot, but is that our best course of action right now?

Edit: I agree not all open shots are created equal, but id rather in a macro sense have more open looks than contested ones. Esp at the NBA level.

So I guess my question is what are these other ways??

KL has been miserable off the ball, in fairness aswell as on the ball. DD has been decent, and they are using him off screens, usually around the FT line extended, curling to the rim.

Our O isnt as predictable as ppl make it sound IMO. They got a great look ATO with a Ross off the ball screen 3. They had another interesting elevator set. Ive seen Horns alot. When ppl say its predictable I rarely see them actually talking about plays, they talk in generalities. As we've seen with UDs Offense thread, they throw a myriad of sets and ppl dont recognize them and say ISO ISO ISO, hell I had to argue a PnR wasnt an ISO.

Teams are giving us open 3s aswell, which you didnt note but I assume it was implied. We arent hitting those with regularity either and its been down right abysmal. We know the correlation between them and ORTGs, yet all I read is generic terms like ISOs/etc..

They have had some miserable games shooting FTs and even getting FTAs.

Again going back to my initial Q, what are these ways you see we can get looks?? I see JV as a roller. Ive explained why thats been tough, again not even addressing the obvious roster construct (few great PnR passers on this team). If ppl made suggestions at the very least we can discuss them, but there seems to be few and far between, just they need to change which may have merit if only we had some ideas of how or what.

Nick Nurse is no slouch offensively, our ISO finishes have been very effective, more so than most sets (which may be surprising to most) despite how few they have finished with (again prob surprising, see Ruckus SotD) considering the rest of the league seems to use more. Im not some savant, I dont pretend to have any answers, there are much more enlightened posters on these things, but whats apparent is the same hyperbole ppl are railing against/for is used both ways, and little constructive posts in terms of what can be done.

Its blame the coach for the follies, and ____ should be changed, ______ should get fewer/more touches, without any rationale how to or why this would be effective. Thats where im lost.

[UnderdogRaptors]

Let's lose this series to satisfy 2 fake all stars, fire casey

[Johnny Bball]

Good post. It's getting irritating seeing people make statements implying that the Raptors are actively choosing to stay away from the paint and jack up shots from the perimeter. There's a big reason why most of JV's points are coming in transition and/or on offensive rebounds - he can't do much when 2 or 3 Heat players are regularly crowding the key.

Bad posts! Of course MIA is out to stop Lowry & DD and to keep them away from the paint and make them shoot as far away as possible. This is playoff basketball, everyone and their mother knew that. Indiana did the same thing. MIA has Whiteside, one of the best in the paint, so you know it's going to be war in there. Same as last year, make them shoot long range and watch them clank! This premise on how to defend the Raptors is a given and everyone knows that and the question is, what is Casey going to do about it?

So your response to that is... "well geez, aawww shucks, what is poor old Casey gonna do, his hands are tied." Really??? What you're really saying then is lets just let MIA dictate the game because Casey is helpless to stop it. Also, this isn't the first time Lowry and DeRozan have slumped in the playoffs. Any competent coach should have a Plan B, C or whatever on what to do to cover this scenario. Casey's plan has been the same plan for 3 years now: If Plan A doesn't work, keep going to Plan A.

No, what were saying is a) clearly they are getting more open looks then ever before. b) KL/DD included, and are shooting terribly, and c) that not hitting 3PTs is killing them for exploiting their obvious advantages outside.

So if your best players arent hitting open shots, if your role players arent hitting open shots, and if they both arent hitting 3s, and consequently they are clogging the lane, should they keep trying to force the ball into the paint??

They have used plenty of differing lineups/sets, I dont know what else you want them to do, aside from vague generalities like change for the sake of change. Let me guess its this circular argument of get JV the ball more and more ball movement?? Which are paradoxical. This isnt an indictment on JV either, its just what MIA/IND are forcing him to do.

I think we all want JV to get the ball more, theres no denying hes been ultra efficient but thats also because of where/when he gets the ball too which consequently has to do with the rest of the players on the court. He gets OREBs and putbacks because teams are sliding over to help on drives, leaving him on smalls or Whiteside trying to contest than box out. He gets clearouts and they cant move the ball (ex: cuts to the rim), because teams arent respecting the outside shooters and sagging the paint/passing lanes. On PnR, they are covering the passing lanes and forcing the ball handlers into the help, or MR jumper. Even passes over the top of the defense to a rolling JV have been deflected/picked off a cpl times.

Honestly, aside from complaining you havent made any concise argument as to how to implement change, its just they should alterior plans, which they do but you wont acknowledge. If you made suggestions perhaps we could have a dialogue, instead nothing.

This isnt some defense on DC or any one player either, its just MIA is giving them MR extended and as such, we are failing to take advantage of that, in lieu of trying to "force" more inside, yet ppl want more inside stuff.

Honestly, I dont know why I put effort into these type of comments as clearly this will fall on deaf ears and the dialogue will consist of ____ sucks, he cant do ____, etc..

I was thinking this the whole time reading your response.

Nobody asks why miami doesn't force the ball into Whiteside since he was 5-7 and JJ was 8-22. At least on this board. spoelstra's an idiot I guess.

[pkiskool]

So frustrating listening to him say "Those are the shots we normally make, they just weren't falling tonight. We are getting good looks still so they will start falling eventually."
WE ARE 9 PLAYOFF GAMES IN!!!!
THEY ARE NOT GOING TO FALL IF YOU DON'T ADJUST!!!

Huh?

This is very over-reactionary. You are saying "9 games" like it's a lot. Every player in the league has ebbs and flows to their season, especially when injuries are in the mix. 9 games is nothing. Kevin Durant has had stretches shooting 3's in the 20%'s over similar sample sizes.

Lowry has been our best player the last couple years. He's a massive part of the reason we won 57 games. We aren't going to get better by going away from him. He either plays better and we have a chance to win, or he continues sucking.

And, they are shots that he normally makes, what's wrong with that? It's not like going from ~40% on open 3's down to ~20% is sustainable. Of course he's going to start hitting them again at a normal rate if he's healthy and they are the same looks as normal.

Can't compare the data pool from regular season to playoffs - they are not the same environment.
Your distribution curves aren't the same anymore.
This IS the norm distribution in the playoffs, unless he or Casey adjusts.
If the whether gets cold, you throw on a jacket, you don't walk outside with your t-shirt on because they worked all year around.

[dillio]

Let's lose this series to satisfy 2 fake all stars, fire casey

Because a team centered around rookies, role players, and JV would have a better shot of making the eastern conference finals...

[vincecarter55]

How do people defend this guy? He lets demar chuck up garbage over and over and doesnt run a single **** play for our best player, JV.

[UnderdogRaptors]

Let's lose this series to satisfy 2 fake all stars, fire casey

Because a team centered around rookies, role players, and JV would have a better shot of making the eastern conference finals...

Dd and lowrys feelings should be put to the side for the betterment of the team, that time he benched debrick in the 4th was a beautiful thing to see.

[vincecarter55]

Let's lose this series to satisfy 2 fake all stars, fire casey

Because a team centered around rookies, role players, and JV would have a better shot of making the eastern conference finals...

Dd and lowrys feelings should be put to the side for the betterment of the team, that time he benched debrick in the 4th was a beautiful thing to see.

Oh how sweet it was. He deserves to be benched more. I seriously think we are better without him at this point.

[dillio]

Let's lose this series to satisfy 2 fake all stars, fire casey

Because a team centered around rookies, role players, and JV would have a better shot of making the eastern conference finals...

Dd and lowrys feelings should be put to the side for the betterment of the team, that time he benched debrick in the 4th was a beautiful thing to see.

Like yesterday when Demar was on the bench in the 4th while Miami built up their biggest lead of the game?

[CoachJReturns]

The amazing thing is we can still beat the Heat even though our offense is trash. Our defense is holding it together.

The big difference from last year to this year.

I honestly wish they'd just post up JV once every 5 possesions or so. Just to get out of the 'high pnr' routine they get into. You need to throw different things at the defense. When you run the high pnr 8-10 possessions in a row, an NBA defense is just going to lock in.

I would also like to see them do pick and pop with JV like Chicago does with Gasol. JV can hit that shot, he has improved on high-low passing so you can also send a cutting big down low. Then if he hits a few of those shots he will be able to actually use the pump fake he loves so much.

It's something I want to sew more of as well. JV has perhaps the beat touch on the team from mid range and it's time to put it to good use.
I don't want to phase out Demar and Lowry because it will likely have a negative impact in the locker room, but the team needs to get the guys who are actually scoring the ball to take the pressure odd our two all stars. Get them more open looks with the defense focused on other guys.

[Kabookalu]

After reviewing the game more closely, I have more sympathy for Casey and DeRozan for our lousy offense this playoffs. It all falls entirely on Kyle Lowry going from a great shooter to a poor one. I thought the Heat weren't doing a good job on shadowing Jonas, but there's ALWAYS someone else in the paint along with Whiteside. Clear outs for him in the low block doesn't seem as desirable as a option then (if he makes passes out of the post and our players actually hits them, it would be though). DeRozan's shot selection, save for like 6 extremely putrid ones, wasn't as terrible as I thought it was. He got good shots, but he either 1) missed them 2) squandered the opportunity by trying to be too fancy with the ball. The floaters he's attempted have done a good job of getting him close open shots to the basket with the way Whiteside keeps staying at home.

Kyle Lowry on the other hand, with the way the Heat are treating him, you'd think he was Rajon Rondo. The added defensive pressure that's usually allotted to Lowry has trickled down across the entire team. I've never seen Ross have to work so hard for 10 points in my life; usually his game looks so smooth and effortless when he's on.

We're playing 4v5 if Kyle Lowry continues playing like this.

[Kabookalu]

The big difference from last year to this year.

I honestly wish they'd just post up JV once every 5 possesions or so. Just to get out of the 'high pnr' routine they get into. You need to throw different things at the defense. When you run the high pnr 8-10 possessions in a row, an NBA defense is just going to lock in.

I would also like to see them do pick and pop with JV like Chicago does with Gasol. JV can hit that shot, he has improved on high-low passing so you can also send a cutting big down low. Then if he hits a few of those shots he will be able to actually use the pump fake he loves so much.

It's something I want to sew more of as well. JV has perhaps the beat touch on the team from mid range and it's time to put it to good use.
I don't want to phase out Demar and Lowry because it will likely have a negative impact in the locker room, but the team needs to get the guys who are actually scoring the ball to take the pressure odd our two all stars. Get them more open looks with the defense focused on other guys.

I'd like to see more pick and rolls with Jonas stopping at the free throw line and nailing the jumper too, like what happened in overtime last night. Whiteside has rarely left the paint. Jonas is a good shooter, he's going to get the mid range shot all the time if they keep playing him like that.

[Hendrix]

So frustrating listening to him say "Those are the shots we normally make, they just weren't falling tonight. We are getting good looks still so they will start falling eventually."
WE ARE 9 PLAYOFF GAMES IN!!!!
THEY ARE NOT GOING TO FALL IF YOU DON'T ADJUST!!!

Huh?

This is very over-reactionary. You are saying "9 games" like it's a lot. Every player in the league has ebbs and flows to their season, especially when injuries are in the mix. 9 games is nothing. Kevin Durant has had stretches shooting 3's in the 20%'s over similar sample sizes.

Lowry has been our best player the last couple years. He's a massive part of the reason we won 57 games. We aren't going to get better by going away from him. He either plays better and we have a chance to win, or he continues sucking.

And, they are shots that he normally makes, what's wrong with that? It's not like going from ~40% on open 3's down to ~20% is sustainable. Of course he's going to start hitting them again at a normal rate if he's healthy and they are the same looks as normal.

Can't compare the data pool from regular season to playoffs - they are not the same environment.
Your distribution curves aren't the same anymore.
This IS the norm distribution in the playoffs, unless he or Casey adjusts.
If the whether gets cold, you throw on a jacket, you don't walk outside with your t-shirt on because they worked all year around.

Of course you can compare his percentages in the regular season. He's the exact same player and he's taking the exact same shots. An open 3 with the nearest defender 5 feet away isn't effected if it's February or May.

The guy is currently a couple standard deviations from the mean, it happens some percentage of the time. The past is a sunk cost, you hope he returns to normal soon, because him at normal was capable of leading a 57 win team. You don't go switching your game plan from what has already proven effective on average (Lowry's play), just because it's been terrible for a short period.

We have zero shot at winning anything by completely adjusting peoples role mid-playoffs. That's a terrible time to go experimenting. We do have a shot at winning something if Lowry simply returns to form and starts hitting shots he normally hits.

Your comparison to the weather is off. If you are going to Florida in January, and there was a freak snowstorm there last week, even though it averages 20 degrees celsius, do you start packing a second bag with a winter coat, boots, and sweaters for your trip there the following week?